Caracal Daily | August 15

Caracal Daily | August 15

Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.

Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.

Always Be Communicating.

Happy Wednesday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

The Russian region of Belgorod declared a state of emergency, becoming the second region to do so, following the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk.

Russia withdraws some forces from Ukraine in response to Kursk invasion: WSJ reports Ukraine was sending in reinforcements Tuesday to bolster its foothold in the Russian border region.

+ "If he [Vladimir Putin] keeps on battling against Ukraine, this is going to happen more often." -- Sir Alex Younger, the former head of MI6, told the BBC Radio 4’s Today program that Ukraine’s incursion into Russian territory is all about making Putin realize the consequences of the war continuing.

How the Ukrainian army easily entered Russia and is holding its positions: Moscow considered the border zone in the Kursk region, a no-man's-land five to 10 kilometers wide, to be low-risk. Military experts say that instead, all attention was focused on the Donbas. Le Monde

Kyiv's bold offensive gamble: By gaining a foothold on Russian territory, the Ukrainian army is inflicting a painful setback on Vladimir Putin. It hopes to force Moscow to redeploy some of its troops, in order to alleviate, even temporarily, the attacks taking place further south. Le Monde - Editorial

Ukraine prepares for Trump trade with Russian land grab: Kursk incursion could give Kyiv a bargaining chip, but at what cost? Ben Hall

Germany has issued a European arrest warrant for a Ukrainian diving instructor who they allege was involved in the Nord Stream attack in September 2022.

Arrest warrant for Ukrainian over Nord Stream pipeline bombings: German prosecutors sought detention of a Ukrainian citizen living in Poland over the 2022 sabotage of gas supply from Russia. The Times

Nord Stream sabotage: Berlin issues arrest warrant for Ukrainian man: Le Monde reports according to German media reports, investigators located one of the members of the sabotage team near Warsaw. Poland confirmed that it had received an arrest warrant for 'Volodymyr Z.' in June, but the suspect fled to Ukraine before being detained.

Iran has rejected calls from the UK and the West to refrain from launching an attack on Israel in retaliation for the killing of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. The country’s President, Masoud Pezeshkian, said it was Iran’s ‘legal right.’

In Israel, support grows for offensive against Hezbollah: WSJ reports as the US works to avoid a regional war, inside security circles some wonder whether now is the time to risk one.

Now is the time to invest in Israeli companies: The country is bursting with innovation and scored as one of the best for producing startups. Anat Guetta + Eliot Penn

Part of Athens is being evacuated as raging wildfires approach the Greek capital.

New UK government bets on green energy. Companies are wary. WSJ reports the newly elected Labour Party is launching a multibillion-dollar effort to regain the country’s place as a global pacesetter for clean energy.

Europe ramps up its battle with Elon Musk: Intervention ahead of Trump interview adds to tensions over first-of-its-kind investigation into social media platform X. FT

Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is to step down in September, after saying he would not seek reelection to stay in office.

Kishida's out. Who will likely be Japan's next leader? The prime minister's decision not to run in the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential race has ignited discussion on who might succeed him. TJT

+ Kishida is the third G7 leader to announce their departure since that notorious “lame duck” summit in Italy back in June, following Joe Biden and, erm, Rishi Sunak. Who’s next? The clever money’s on Olaf Scholz or Justin Trudeau.

Manila looks beyond Asia for defense support: TJT reports Germany is the latest Western power to announce plans to deepen security ties with the Philippines amid Manila's escalating territorial disputes with China.

Canada’s housing bust pits real estate coaches against students: A new class of educators promised to help small-time investors use property to build their personal wealth. Now, a backlash is brewing. Bloomberg

To best China, Pentagon must shed "the same old mindsets": Axios reports Pentagon officials say the U.S. stands at the precipice of a new golden age of defense innovation driven by upstart contractors, advances in technology, and a world brimming with threats.

The US Army’s DEVCOM + Clemson University unveiled a new semi-autonomous, optionally piloted ground rescue vehicle dubbed Deep Orange 15.

NORAD and the Arctic: Air Force Gen. Gregory M. Guillot, head of NORAD and US Northern Command, called for greater domain awareness in the Arctic in the wake of recent approaches to North America by Chinese and Russian bombers.

***  US Politics + Elections ***

82: The number of days until the 2024 election.

WP: Trump vs. Harris magnifies generational, cultural divides

Kamala Harris leads or ties Donald Trump in all but one battleground state — Nevada — according to the latest Cook Political Report survey.

AP: Americans give Harris an advantage over Trump on honesty and discipline, an AP-NORC poll finds

The Democratic convention party scene is taking shape: John Legend is set to headline one of the week’s biggest events so far — a bash by Gov. JB Pritzker of Illinois — but despite speculation, there’s no sign yet of Beyoncé or Taylor Swift in Chicago. NYT

Kamala Harris’s economic team, agenda start to take shape: The Democratic nominee is seeking to differentiate herself from President Biden even as she amplifies many of his policy proposals. WSJ

Are Kamala Harris and Tim Walz true Baby Boomers? The Democratic nominee and her running mate were born in what is customarily labeled the last year of the baby boom. Births data don’t entirely back that up. Justin Fox

Donald Trump's campaign is stalling: Donald Trump has been destabilized by Kamala Harris's entry into the presidential race. His campaign is stuck in the same pattern as 2016, in which he presented himself as a radically new option. Now that's a stance that's a little bit harder to believe. Le Monde - Editorial

The American right is terminally online: Elon Musk and Donald Trump joined forces. Or are they stuck with each other? John Herrman

Catholic converts like JD Vance are reshaping Republican politics Matthew Schmitz

WSJ: Cooling inflation sets stage for September rate cut

+ July reading of 2.9% is first drop firmly below 3% since early 2021

US said to consider a breakup of Google to address search monopoly: NYT reports the Justice Department and state attorneys general are discussing various scenarios to remedy Google’s dominance in online search, including a breakup of the company.

Crypto PAC will spend $12M backing Republican in Ohio race that could flip Senate: Politico reports a crypto super PAC will also go on the air backing the Democratic Senate candidates Ruben Gallego in Arizona and Elisa Slotkin in Michigan.

A California bill to regulate AI causes alarm in Silicon Valley: California state senator Scott Wiener wants to stop the creation of dangerous AI. But critics say he is jumping the gun. NYT

AI as snake oil: Software billionaire Dan O’Dowd is launching a new offensive in the NYT and WSJ that paint AI technology as “snake oil” being peddled by high-powered grifters. O’Dowd’s latest ads are more derisive than alarmist. They argue that tech scions have “added trillions to their market caps by stoking Artificial Intelligence hype” but that the technologies themselves are flawed — and shouldn’t be trusted for use in critical infrastructure. See the ad here.

+ O’Dowd said he’s supportive of efforts to regulate the sector, including state Sen. Scott Wiener’s Senate Bill 1047, but said there needs to be more done to mitigate what he sees as a lack of reliability in AI tools.

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

Alaska Air Group + Hawaiian Holdings said they will again extend closing their proposed $1.9 billion deal to give US antitrust enforcers more time to discuss a potential settlement.

The satellite industry grew substantially in 2023, including a 361% increase in orbiting satellites.

SpaceX is planning to add three new rocket landing zones at Cape Canaveral to boost launch frequency.

8.8 million of the PCs shipped in Q2 2024 were AI-capable. That's 14% of all PCs shipped globally. 

Fashionable AI eyewear has been having a moment lately, with Meta Platforms Inc.’s newest Ray-Ban smart glasses being the most prominent example. 

Elon Musk’s xAI launches Grok-2 in race to catch ChatGPT: FT reports the latest chatbot ranks in top 5 models, according to independent benchmark sites, and will be available to X subscribers.

Deep-live-cam goes viral, allowing anyone to become a digital doppelganger: ARS Tech reports using one photo and free software, someone can impersonate your appearance in a video chat.

How ‘deepfake Elon Musk’ became the internet’s biggest scammer: An AI-powered version of Musk has appeared in thousands of inauthentic ads, contributing to billions in fraud. NYT

AI could ruin kids’ critical-thinking skills Jessica Grose

Google’s Gemini Live AI sounds so human, I almost forgot it was a bot Joanna Stern

Can the mobile wave help us navigate the AI wave? Tech experts from Wharton and Forrester look back on the advent of the iPhone, identifying key lessons that leaders today can apply to AI. K@W

Is now the right time to appoint a chief AI officer? The rapid advance of GenAI has been bewildering. No wonder many business leaders are considering whether they’d benefit from the guidance of a strategic-level expert in the field. Raconteur

Why AI risks are keeping board members up at night: Company directors are trying to get a handle on artificial intelligence as its use soars, bringing potential productivity gains—but also raising the prospect of employee blunders. WSJ

Musk’s X reeks of failing social network syndrome: The former Twitter is losing users, advertisers, and relevance. This presidential election will be the platform’s last. David Lee

Amazon and Meta’s bid to rewrite the rules on net zero: Critics say a proposed change could allow large energy users to hide their true emissions. FT

Why Disney plussed itself Josef Adalian

Family-owned candy giant Mars, whose brands include M&M's and Snickers, is nearing a deal to acquire Kellanova, maker of snacks such as Cheez-It and Pringles, for nearly $30 billion.

Avon Products has filed for bankruptcy, after a wave of lawsuits claiming that the talc in its products were contaminated with cancer-causing substances. 

Surgeons cut a giant tumor out of my head. Is there a better way? A freak diagnosis led me to a renowned neurosurgeon—and his decades-long quest to develop medical treatments that use sound. Bloomberg

*** Culture ***

Missy Elliott, pop world builder, brings a hip-hop fantasia to Brooklyn: For her first headlining tour in an innovative three-decade career, Elliott unleashed a relentless and exhilarating display of theatrical and visual ambition. NYT

*** Sport ***

Hallucinations and seven minutes of sleep: The mad world of ultra-cycling: David Bates is taking on Badlands, a 792km race through the deserts and mountains of Spain. In part one of his diary, he meets fellow ultra-endurance cyclists to ask: why on earth do we do it? The Times


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal