Caracal Daily | August 14
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Wednesday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
+ @POLITICOEurope: 🚨 BREAKING: President Vladimir Putin has pulled units out of Ukraine to defend Russia, Kyiv has said.
Volodymyr Zelensky said that the war “is coming home” after Ukrainian troops reportedly seized around 1,000 square kilometres of Russian territory and captured hundreds of enemy soldiers.
Deception and a gamble: How Ukrainian troops invaded Russia: Planned in secrecy, the incursion was a bold move to upend the war’s dynamics and put Moscow on the defensive — a gambit that could also leave Ukraine exposed. NYT
Ukraine plotted incursion to throw Kremlin off balance Bloomberg
WP: Ukraine says captured Russian soldiers could be part of prisoner exchange
Ukraine's incursion into Russia: 'Morale has gone up a notch': Le Monde reprts on the Russian border, Ukrainian soldiers are leaving for the Russian region of Kursk, while others are returning. On their cell phones, they show the dozens of Russian soldiers have been taken prisoner.
What next after Ukraine’s shock invasion of Russia? It could dig in, pull back or grab more as a bargaining chip. Economist
Kyiv says no interest in occupying Kursk: DW reports Ukraine has underlined that its Kursk breakthrough is intended to frustrate Russia's attacks elsewhere. Meanwhile, Moscow says its forces have checked Kyiv's efforts to expand the incursion.
Russia says Ukraine’s ‘crazy’ incursion could trigger wider war: The Times reports the cross-border attack in Kursk is the Ukrainian forces’ largest incursion on Russian territory since the conflict began — and a major test for Putin.
Putin has victory in his grasp Anastasia Edel
Russian navy trained to target sites inside Europe with nuclear-capable missiles: Secret presentation for officers reveals plans for overwhelming strikes in early stages of potential war against NATO. FT
Reuters: Only Gaza ceasefire will delay retaliation, say Iranian officials
US efforts to calm Mideast fighting face critical week: State Department seeks congressional approval for nearly $20 billion military sale to Israel amid tensions. WSJ
US approves $20 billion weapons package for Israel: Le Monde reports the sale comes as Biden presses Israel and Hamas to reach a ceasefire after 10 months of bloodshed, although the weapons would take years to reach Israel – the $18.82 billion in 50 F-15 fighter jets will begin to be delivered in 2029.
WSJ: US lifts restrictions on sale of bombs to Saudi Arabia
Russia-Iran ties being strained by parallel conflicts: WSJ reports as Iran ponders a strike on Israel and Ukraine penetrates the Russian border, Moscow and Tehran weigh how much they can help each other.
Turkey’s Instagram spat shows the limits of global content governance: There are growing divisions over how to treat groups such as Hamas online. Sinan Ulgen
Huawei readies new chip to challenge Nvidia, surmounting US sanctions: WSJ reports the Chinese tech company is looking for AI business with the Ascend series but still faces production problems.
Vietnam turns chip sector magnet with affordable, quality talent pool: US, Taiwan, South Korean players beat path to Vietnam though boom strains resources. Nikkei
The sleepy Czech town helping Europe compete in the global chip war: A $2 billion investment by a US company promises to create a tech hub and help modernize the country’s stagnating economy. Bloomberg
Can Sweden deliver its much hyped green energy boom? Abundant electricity in the north was supposed to power a new wave of industrialisation. But projects are struggling to scale up. FT
Can this country show Europe how to compete again? Sweden outperforms in tech, has a roster of $1 billion-plus start-ups and could be a model as the European Union refigures its growth policies. NYT
Panda at Berlin Zoo again pregnant with twins: DW reports the Berlin Zoo has announced Meng Meng the panda is pregnant again with twins and could give birth by the end of the month.
Kenyan train to nowhere reveals China’s debt trap diplomacy: The Times reports work has long since stopped on a Belt and Road project to connect Kenya and Uganda.
Japan's mega-earthquake alert puts the country under stress: Le Monde reports a large portion of the country remains under a mega-earthquake advisory warning until Thursday. This has led to widespread anxiety, precautionary shopping and travel cancellations in the affected areas.
Where will US-China tech decoupling go under Harris or Trump? Silicon Valley split on different futures for AI, crypto and China investment. Nikkei
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Democrats will stream their convention next week using vertical video on TikTok, Instagram and YouTube, Axios reports.
Harris and Walz plan rally in Milwaukee during Democratic convention: NYT reports the event is planned for Tuesday, when Barack Obama speaks in Chicago, and the campaign hopes to hold it at the arena where Republicans held their convention, people briefed on the planning said.
WP: In Pennsylvania, Harris can’t shake her anti-fracking past
How Kamala Harris might still lose: Polling precedent and economic data suggest the Democrats shouldn’t get ahead of themselves. Janan Ganesh
Trump or Harris? It’s a tossup for many CEOs: WSJ reports ome business leaders are apprehensive about former President Donald Trump but say Vice President Kamala Harris isn’t necessarily a better alternative.
The Trump campaign’s ‘please shut up’ phase David Frum
Bloomberg: UAW seizes on Donald Trump praising Musk for firing workers
Microsoft + Palantir are teaming up to offer a range of artificial intelligence services for classified government use.
Bloomberg: US considers a rare antitrust move: Breaking up Google
Home prices in Silicon Valley area top $2 million for first time: Bloomberg reports it's the first time a US metropolitan area has exceeded that threshold, and a symptom of the nation’s persistent affordability challenge.
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
Bloomberg: Google launches Pixel 9 phones, Pixel Watch 3 in renewed push to sell AI
Google’s Gemini live AI sounds so human, I almost forgot it was a bot: Google’s Android chief told our columnist the voice assistant was designed to impersonate humans, but he doesn’t want anyone getting romantic with it. WSJ
Gemini is replacing Google Assistant on Pixel phones, and it’s a trainwreck: FC reprts Google is throwing out a perfectly good voice assistant for one that frequently fails at basic tasks.
Why are there so many AI ads? Shira Ovide
PricewaterhouseCoopers’ Australian arm will invest A$11.5 million ($7.6 million) over the next year to bolster its artificial intelligence capabilities.
A group of illustrators + visual artists suing Stability AI, Midjourney, and other AI image generators for copyright infringement advanced a novel theory that their images have been “compressed” inside of AI models.
Jobhunters flood recruiters with AI-generated CVs: FT reports about half of applicants are using tools such as ChatGPT to help write cover letters but, without editing, the language is ‘clunky.’
We’re entering an AI price-fixing dystopia: Algorithmic collusion appears to be spreading to more and more industries. And existing laws may not be equipped to stop it. Rogé Karma
LLMs will transform medicine, media and more: But not without a helping (human) hand. Economist
The little streamer that could: Tubi has exploded in popularity over the past 18 months, outpacing some competitors with much bigger budgets. NYT
Universal Music signs Meta deal allowing its music to appear on WhatsApp.
Starbucks replaces CEO with Chipotle’s Brian Niccol: The coffee chain said that Chipotle’s chief executive would replace Laxman Narasimhan, who is leaving the company after just over a year at the helm. NYT
Starbucks ousts chief and appoints Chipotle boss after activist pressure: FT reports shares in coffee chain jump after Laxman Narasimhan is replaced by Brian Niccol.
Drop in wine consumption is reshaping French vineyards: Since the 1970s, the industry has seen a steady decline in sales. Faced with an overproduction crisis, winegrowers are looking for ways to survive. Le Monde
South Korea EV fires spark calls for stricter safety rules: Nikkei reports analysts foresee potential sales decline in fallout after blazes.
Melbourne announced a ban on rented e-scooters. Nicholas Reece, Melbourne’s mayor, said that too many people were riding the scooters on pavements or creating tripping hazards by leaving them strewn around the city.
Why Alaska Airlines is investing in a jet that’s like nothing you’ve seen before: JetZero designed an aircraft that can accommodate more passengers while using less fuel. It’s just one of the next-gen ideas the airline is backing. FC
The significance of liquid water on Mars: There could be an ocean’s worth deep underground. Economist
*** Culture ***
Artist's Lordstown photos are a call to action — 'The workers are the heroes' DFP
*** Sport ***
Out of the darkness? Aaron Rodgers’ biographer on a tarnished star: Bestselling writer Ian O’Connor says Jets Super Bowl win would help make up for quarterback’s ‘unforgivable’ conspiracy theories and controversial behavior. Guardian
A sports agent went viral. He isn’t ready to fade away. Sean Stellato rocketed to fame through a mix of outlandish clothes, an outsize personality, and an embrace of the NFL’s underdogs. He is sticking with what worked. NYT
The NFL is said to be meeting with private equity groups this week, the next step in the league’s efforts to bring institutional money into its ownership ranks.
Premier League 2024-25 predictions: Dark horses and breakout stars: Will Erling Haaland secure a third straight Golden Boot? Can Erik ten Hag last until Christmas? Our experts share their opinions on the new season. The Times
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Daily | August 13
Caracal Daily | August 13
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Tuesday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
US deploys submarine to Middle East; Israel anticipates direct attack from Iran: WP reports the order came after Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, discussing efforts to deter Iran.
US and Israeli defense officials speak amid fears of escalation in Mideast: NYT reports Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III spoke with his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant, the Pentagon said. In an unusual disclosure, it said Austin had ordered a submarine to the Middle East.
AP: Leaders of France, Germany, and Britain endorse push for cease-fire in Gaza
Today: The UN Security Council holds a public meeting on the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.
In Syria’s hinterlands, the US wages a hidden campaign against a resurgent Islamic State: Defeated by American-led forces half a decade ago, the terrorist group is rebounding amid the chaos of the Middle East. WSJ
The Times: Zelensky tells Putin war is ‘coming home’ to Russia
At a Russian border post, scenes of ruin after Ukraine’s surprise attack: A week after the biggest foreign incursion into Russia since World War II, The New York Times visited one of the spots where Ukrainian forces stormed into Russia and surprised the defenders. NYT
Russia evacuated parts of a second region next to Ukraine after Kyiv sharply increased military activity near the border just days after its biggest incursion into sovereign Russian territory since the start of the 2022 war.
Up to 180K Russians flee Ukraine’s continued offensive: Politico reports Kyiv’s forces advance further into Russian territory and have reportedly managed to repel Moscow’s attempts to reinforce defending troops.
Facing a Ukrainian incursion, Putin directs his rage at the West: NYT reports Russian forces are pummeling Ukrainian positions along the front lines, Ukrainian military officials said, as attacks on Russian soil by Ukraine continue.
Today: Russian President Vladimir Putin hosts Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Moscow.
US Congressional delegation visits Taiwan this week: Bloomberg reports a US congressional delegation led by Marilyn Strickland and other democrats arrived Taiwan on Sunday for a five-day visit, according to a statement from Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Tim Walz knows China. That’s good for the US: A more nuanced approach to Beijing doesn’t mean Washington needs to abandon its firm positions on trade, territorial disputes, and Taiwan. Karishma Vaswani
Walz’s China ties garner attention, provoke GOP criticism: Republicans say the Democratic vice presidential nominee will be too soft on Beijing. Politico
TikTok shows less “anti-China” content than rivals, researchers say.
China FDI down: Foreign investors pull a record amount of money from China. China lost a record $15 billion of foreign investment last quarter, state data showed.
America + South Korea said that they would start their next round of annual military drills next week, with the first exercises beginning on August 19th.
Agreement strengthens AUKUS submarine partnership Release
ECB to cut key rate six times by end of 2025, survey shows.
Saudi film industry calls on Hollywood to nurture local talent: Bloomberg reports film is a key part of a broader strategy to turn the local entertainment sector into a source of revenue as the kingdom diversifies beyond oil.
Ministers from Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo began discussions to reopen their border. Zambia closed the border on Saturday over a trade spat, delaying copper exports from the DRC.
Wary of Trump and Azerbaijan, businesses shun COP climate talks: Companies are anxiously wondering: Can we get hotel rooms? What about the autocratic regime hosting? What if Trump wins? Politico
Seventy miles in hell: The Darién Gap was once considered impassable. Now hundreds of thousands of migrants are risking treacherous terrain, violence, hunger, and disease to travel through the jungle to the United States. Caitlin Dickerson
The new maritime statecraft: A deal between the US, Canada and Finland to build icebreakers is a model for smart friendshoring. Rana Foroohar
America prepares for a new nuclear-arms race: Its build-up could start as early as 2026. Economist
*** US Politics + Elections ***
AP: Harris is pushing joy. Trump paints a darker picture. Will mismatched moods matter?
+ Former Rep. Susan Molinari (R-NY) told Spectrum News NY1 crossing party lines to back Kamala Harris for president.
Harris leads Trump by four percentage points in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll.
Will Kamala Harris’ short run kill the ‘permanent campaign’? Ben Smith
Elon Musk tried to interview Donald Trump on X but the livestream failed due to massive technical problems.
The FBI says it is conducting a criminal investigation of the hacking attack against Donald Trump’s campaign.
Break-in reported at Trump campaign office in Virginia: Politico reports: “It is rare to have the office of any political campaign or party broken into,” Loudoun County Sheriff Mike Chapman said.
The problem is not AI. It’s the disbelief created by Trump. Zeynep Tufekci
Nancy Pelosi’s Art of Power: The former Speaker discusses how she hastened Joe Biden’s decision to drop out, her new memoir, and not getting “doggy doo-doo on your shoe.” The New Yorker
FEC chair seeks rejection of petition for rules to constrain the use of election 'deepfakes': IAIP reports Federal Election Commission Chairman Sean Cooksey and his Republican colleagues are asking Democratic members of the commission to dispense with a petition seeking to clarify that rules against “fraudulent misrepresentations” by political candidates and their allies applies to AI-generated deepfakes, at an upcoming open meeting.
Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm says her agency is doing everything it can to manage AI's massive energy demands.
"Made in America" chips: Two years ago, the US passed bipartisan legislation seeking to revitalize the country’s semiconductor manufacturing industry. Since then, the Biden administration has handed out almost $39 billion in grants, primarily to four companies to produce sophisticated chips.
AI industry leader expects early Air Force adoption of unmanned fighter jets: Unmanned fighter jets could be fielded "way" before the end of the decade, or sooner than the Air Force's planned timeline for operating Collaborative Combat Aircraft, Brandon Tseng, co-founder and president of ShieldAI, told Inside Defense.
Navy warship production in worst state in 25 years. What’s behind it? AP reports that labor shortage is one of myriad challenges that have led to backlogs in ship production and maintenance at a time when the Navy faces expanding global threats.
Bloomberg: Instagram views for major accounts drop with Meta shunning politics
+ Prominent political accounts saw fewer views, study says
+ Meta changed political stance to make services less combative
Brands love influencers (until politics get involved): Marketing firms are using artificial intelligence to help analyze influencers and predict whether they will opine about the election. NYT
Elon Musk’s political posts have comprised 17% of his feed on X this year, up from 2% in 2021.
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
Bloomberg: TSMC sales soared 45% in July on strong AI demand, shares gain
+ World’s leading contract chipmaker accelerated growth in July
+ TSMC serves as bellwether for AI and mobile chip demand
Here’s how people are actually using AI: Something peculiar and slightly unexpected has happened: people have started forming relationships with AI systems. Melissa Heikkilä
Khosla Ventures backed the latest AI unicorn, DevRev Inc.
X hit with Austrian data use complaint over AI training: Reuters reports Austrian advocacy group NOYB on Monday filed a complaint against social media platform X accusing the Elon Musk-owned company of training its artificial intelligence (AI) with users' personal data without their consent in violation of EU privacy law.
The billionaire suing Facebook to remove his face from AI scams: Mining executive’s lawsuit is one of first to threaten tech immunity protections, alleges company’s AI-powered ad systems amplify scams. WSJ
US regulators declined to approve the use of MDMA as a therapy for post-traumatic stress disorder.
EV sales are lagging in America — and it's causing panic: US EV adoption lags expectations, but the industry expects a tipping point within a few years. Here's how carmakers are coping with uncertainty. DFP
Why almost nobody is buying green hydrogen: The vast majority of projects don’t have a single customer stepping up to buy the fuel. Bloomberg
Hello, goodbye: The rise and decline of the celebrity video-greeting app Cameo: Personalised videos from celebrities such as Elijah Wood were a lockdown hit for a firm once valued at £1bn. Now A-listers have deserted it – though there’s always Nigel Farage. Guardian
Disney increased the price of its streaming services. Disney+ without ads will now cost $16 a month, more than double the launch price five years ago.
The boom in travel spending has slowed: WSJ reports hotels and airlines expect Americans to partake in less leisure travel and pare down the trips they take in the months ahead.
350m: The number of people worldwide who have a dating app on their phone.
Is chaos the key to better economics? Peter Coy
*** Culture ***
A billionaire bought a lobster shack in the Hamptons. Then the trouble began: For decades the sleepy Long Island hamlet of Montauk and its beloved Lobster Deck resisted gentrification. Enter Wall Street heavyweight Marc Rowan. FT
*** Sport ***
China v USA: China’s state-run media used the nation’s gold medal haul at the Paris Olympics — which tied the US total of 40 — as the latest sign that it can rival America on the global stage.
How the Olympic Games forever changed skate parks Bloomberg
Upcoming hosts for the Olympic Games:
🇮🇹 2026: Milan Cortina
🇺🇸 2028: Los Angeles
🇫🇷 2030: French Alps
🇦🇺 2032: Brisbane
🇺🇸 2034: Salt Lake City
Saudi Arabia’s wild plan to build 11 futuristic soccer stadiums for the 2034 World Cup: The audacious architecture will come with some serious challenges. FC
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal