Caracal Daily | August 26
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Monday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
Zelensky’s invasion of Russia sends a message to Moscow—and Washington: WSJ reports Ukraine’s audacious move across the border is an effort to show the world that the country is still in the fight.
Thursday: The 75th anniversary of the Soviet Union testing it first atomic bomb. The same day is also the international day against nuclear tests.
Bloomberg: Mideast on edge after Israel bombs Lebanon to thwart attack
Israel, Hezbollah signal de-escalation after predawn bombardments: WSJ reports casualties are limited after strikes by 100 Israeli jets and hundreds of Hezbollah rockets, though dangers remain.
Israel and Hizbullah play with fire: Economist reports they both attempt escalating attacks that fall short of all-out war.
Israel, Hezbollah exchange heaviest strikes in months, in a dramatic but contained escalation: WP reports the dramatic but contained escalation overnight Sunday stopped short of all-out war, with Hezbollah and Israel both signaling restraint.
After attacks, Israel and Hezbollah swiftly move to talk of containment: NYT reports Hezbollah’s retaliation for the killing of a senior commander appeared to be over before it began. But analysts said tensions could escalate further.
In Beijing’s quest for control of the South China Sea, a new flashpoint emerges: WSJ reports China is showing a growing willingness to escalate in the David-and-Goliath fight with the Philippines over control of the vital trade route.
Top private equity firms put brakes on China dealmaking: FT reports activity dries up amid Beijing’s listings crackdown and planned US investment curbs.
Is Xi Jinping an AI doomer? China’s elite is split over artificial intelligence. Economist
What if China invades? For Taiwan, a TV show raises tough questions. Some think the drama, “Zero Day,” helps Taiwan confront an increasingly plausible scenario. Others say the show is alarmist and a tool of the government. NYT
The inside story of the secret backchannel between the US and China: Top officials Jake Sullivan and Wang Yi met quietly to stabilize relations in ‘cloak and dagger’ summits around the world. FT
Ishiba Shigeru, a former defense minister, joined the race to succeed Kishida Fumio as Japan’s prime minister.
Bloomberg: South Korea sees US by its side regardless of who is in White House
+ Vice unification minister says elite defections have climbed
+ Kim Soo Kyung says North faces ‘critical damage’ after floods
Indonesia-US military drills: Super Garuda Shield, the joint military exercises led by Indonesia and the United States, will open on Monday.
Monday: Pacific island leaders meet: The Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Leaders Meeting starts in Tonga with more than 1,000 attendees expected for the week-long event, including heads of the 18 PIF members, the body's 21 dialogue partners, and regional and international organizations.
Sunday: Indonesia-Africa Forum: Indonesian president Joko Widodo and leaders from nearly 30 African nations gather in Bali for the 2nd Indonesia-Africa Forum.
WP: Telegram founder Pavel Durov detained in France
Telegram founder Pavel Durov arrested in France: The Times reports the chief executive of the encrypted messaging app reportedly detained at an airport near Paris over alleged failure to stop criminal activity on the platform.
Telegram CEO Pavel Durov arrested in France in world-first case: The founder of the messaging service was arrested on Saturday evening at Le Bourget airport outside of Paris. He is the subject of an investigation for the lack of moderation on his platform. Le Monde
Telegram becomes free speech flashpoint after founder’s arrest: NYT reports Pavel Durov, the founder of the app, which has more than 900 million users, was taken into custody by the French authorities.
Russian lawmakers hit back at arrest of Telegram chief Pavel Durov in France: FT reports the billionaire detained at Paris airport for failing to adequately moderate criminal activity on his messaging platform.
German prosecutor says Islamic State terrorist link is suspected in festival stabbings: NYT reports the police say they have arrested a man they believe killed three people and wounded eight others at a festival in the town of Solingen, in western Germany.
Italy opens manslaughter probe into Lynch superyacht sinking: FT reports prosecutors say Bayesian went down stern-first after ‘rapid, sudden’ storm struck.
‘Watch out, Kwasi, you’re about to be sacked,’ a friend warned: Kwasi Kwarteng saw himself as Liz Truss’s ‘Kevlar body armour’. But as Anthony Seldon reveals in his new book, she was unable to use him to shield herself from the fall-out of their disastrous mini-budget. The Times
Warnings AI tools used by government on UK public are ‘racist and biased’: Transparency campaigners welcome government move to publish details of system algorithms. Guardian
‘Whatever happens in the sauna stays in the sauna’: Diplomacy, conducted in the nude: The Finnish Embassy offers one of the hottest invitations in Washington: a chance to discuss serious topics in a sauna. NYT
Pope Francis' words on literature, which go against the Church's tradition of censorship, are revolutionary: Published on August 4, the 'Letter of His Holiness Pope Francis on the Role of Literature in Formation' is 'a major event for all lovers of literature,' according to William Marx, professor at the Collège de France. Amandine Clavaud
Guggenheim rises in the desert as Abu Dhabi morphs into expat hub: Emirate is attempting to draw wealthy foreigners to invest and work. Bloomberg
India bans mortar boards and graduation gowns as ‘relics of the Raj’: The Times reports Narendra Modi’s government wants to erase all traces of India’s ‘colonial legacy’ but critics say it should focus on present-day issues such as violence against women.
Mpox surveillance must be improved to tackle Africa surge, expert warns: FT reports infectious disease professor Dimie Ogoina says cases are probably being under-reported.
Meghan Markle and Prince Harry were in Colombia. Does anyone care? In mid-August, the Duke and Duchess of Sussex were invited to spend four days in Colombia. Between crowds and various social events, it was a visit with high (royal) added value. Marc Beaugé
Javier Milei is splurging on the army: Many Argentines are asking why. Economist
To whom it may concern: America and Europe need each other Wolfgang Ischinger
Tuesday: Two-day Intelligence and National Security Summit is held just outside Washington DC. Speakers include FBI deputy director Paul Abbate and the CIA deputy director David S Cohen.
The global power of Big Agriculture’s lobbying: Behind the public image of farming lies a vast industry adept at securing subsidies and exemptions from environmental measures. FT
*** US Politics + Elections ***
WSJ: Trump steps up campaigning to counter Harris’s momentum
How JD Vance found his way to the Catholic Church: In his 30s, the Republican vice-presidential nominee read works on theology, mysticism, and political and moral philosophy. And he discovered his faith. NYT
Robert Kennedy Jr drops long-shot bid for the presidency and backs Donald Trump: FT reports the scion of storied US Democratic dynasty claims the party conspired to halt his White House run.
WP: Harris’s campaign has raised $540 million since launch, Democrats say
Behind Harris’s new mantra: ‘The Opportunity Economy’: The phrase is inoffensive, is open to interpretation and incorporates a Republican buzzword. WSJ
Kamala Harris developed a resolutely optimistic vision of America, far removed from the apocalyptic view presented by Trump: The Democratic candidate presented the image of a calmer America during her speech at the Chicago convention, portraying herself as a resolute moderate, seeking above all to unite voters, according to the specialist on the US. Laurence Nardon
Kamala Harris is running on vibes: Delegates at the DNC can’t agree whether she is moderate or progressive. They’re just relieved she’s not Biden. Economist
Kamala Harris says America, not China, will win 21st century: Nomination speech recalls Indian mother, jabs Trump for cozying up to Kim Jong Un. Nikkei
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
NASA turns to Elon Musk’s SpaceX to bring stuck astronauts back to Earth: FT reports the US space agency will not use Boeing spacecraft that ferried crew to the International Space Station.
Bloomberg: New Boeing CEO faces hard choices after NASA snubs Starliner for SpaceX
SpaceX’s risky next mission: The first private spacewalk: WSJ reports two commercial astronauts are slated to conduct a short walk out of the Crew Dragon vehicle.
Tuesday: Scheduled launch of Polaris Dawn mission from Kennedy Space Center in Florida on board a Falcon 9 rocket.
Podcasts used to be ad-light oases. Not anymore. Some hosts and industry executives worry ad creep will hurt the medium for both listeners and marketers. WSJ
There are a bazillion possible starbucks orders — and it’s killing the company Bill Saporito
Walmart Mexico accelerates digital overhaul of retail giant under new boss: Country’s largest supermarket chain facing increased ecommerce competition. FT
How AI is remaking Milan’s ice cream scene and driving a gelato boom: New technology is helping ice cream innovators turn the traditional industry on its head. The Times
High five: British technology companies set the pace in AI: The Times is profiling some of the UK’s most promising AI firms, exploring how they might revolutionise industries. Today, the creative sector. The Times
The future of the AI-enhanced classroom: New technology is poised to change the way students are taught and learn. FT - Editorial
Nvidia, a titan of microchips facing the first doubts about AI: The Californian company, which dominates the market, is facing questions from investors wondering whether it is profitable enough, and competition from its own clients including Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Tesla. Le Monde
Apple explores robotics in search of life beyond the iPhone Bloomberg
Wednesday: Alibaba listing in Hong Kong.
Start-up incubator Y Combinator backs its first weapons firm: Investment in maker of ‘low-cost cruise missiles’ a sign of Silicon Valley’s shifting stance towards the arms industry. FT
*** Culture ***
WP: Burning Man isn’t sold out — and the die-hards are thrilled
The loneliness of the digital nomad. This isn’t the escape you think it will be. Fred Skulthorp
Toronto is worthy of your luxurious weekend getaways Penta
*** Sport ***
This soccer club’s American owners are either geniuses or fools: The US investors that own London team Chelsea FC have applied a new financial approach to European soccer. The result, however, is bizarre. WSJ
Why the world is teeming with so many new sports leagues: Interest from fans and investors has led to a surge. But is it a winning strategy? Economist
One with the waves: The spirituality of 'soul surfers': Becoming one with 'Mother Ocean' until you reach a state of 'contentment': In his column, journalist Marc Bonomelli analyzes the beliefs of 'soul surfers,' wave aficionados who find a spiritual dimension within their practice. Marc Bonomelli
Today: The US Open tennis starts.
Wednesday: Opening ceremony of Paris Paralympics.
Saturday: Deadline for football governing body FIFA to decide on Palestinian proposal to suspend Israel from international football events.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Daily | August 23
Caracal Daily | August 23
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Friday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
Reuters: Israeli tanks push deeper into Gaza, as Biden urges peace
Reuters: Trump anxiety spurs investment in European defence startups
Security and defense will have to rest more on Europe — and less on the US: After decades of underinvestment and spending cuts to NATO, there remains much more to be done. But virtually all members now understand the urgency of the task at hand. Ivo Daalder
AP: India’s Modi urges efforts to end Ukraine war after talks in Poland
Narendra Modi meets with Zelensky after cosying up to Putin: The Times reports the Indian prime minister will visit Kyiv on Friday, a month after he hugged the Kremlin chief the day a Russian missile hit a Ukrainian children’s hospital.
German support for Ukraine comes under new strains: NYT reports with a budget shortfall for 2025 and evidence mounting that Ukraine blew up natural-gas pipelines between Germany and Russia, German aid to Ukraine is under pressure.
AP: Poorly trained recruits contribute to loss of Ukrainian territory on eastern front, commanders say
Reuters: Russia and Ukraine report gains as some Ukrainians flee strategic city
Russia accuses top CNN reporter of illegally crossing border: Politico reports CNN’s Nick Paton Walsh and two Ukrainian journalists were named in the criminal case.
Chinese premier Li Qiang has said the relationship between Russia and China will move ‘to a new level,’ after meeting Vladimir Putin in Moscow.
US officials meet Dalai Lama in New York, triggering protest from China: WSJ reports though the 89-year-old remains in good health, questions over the Tibetan spiritual leader’s succession are worrying Beijing.
Bloomberg: Chinese imports of chip gear hit record $26 billion this year
+ China has been stockpiling ASML systems and foreign machinery
+ US and allies have been limiting China’s access to their tech
New ‘great game’ in Pacific between US and China puts development at risk TJT
Why AI is next flashpoint in US-China tech rivalry Bloomberg
Singapore, Malaysia want to build their own Shenzhen-style mega-hub: A renewed effort to weave together the economies of Singapore and southern Malaysia could benefit both nations, if political challenges can finally be overcome. Bloomberg
Nepal lifts TikTok ban after nine months.
Vietnam’s new ruler: Hardman, capitalist, hedonist: To Lam, the Communist Party’s new leader, has just met Xi Jinping. America is next. Economist
Thailand's Thaksin says US to toughen trade after election: Protections needed against cheap Chinese goods, ruling party boss argues. Nikkei
Myanmar's poet-warrior shares a vision for democracy: DW spoke with a poet-turned-rebel commander who is bringing together diverse ethnic groups into the fight against Myanmar's junta. He says Myanmar's future is one of inclusion and diversity. DW
Italy-Japan ties enter ‘new era’ amid deepening alignment, top envoy to Tokyo says: TJT reports the arrival in Japan of the Italian Navy's flagship, the aircraft carrier ITS Cavour, on Thursday marked the latest in a series of incremental steps Rome and Tokyo have taken to deepen bilateral ties — part of what Italy's ambassador says is a "new era" in their strategic partnership.
Italian minister gives Stellantis ultimatum over EU funds for planned gigafactory: Reuters reports ACC, a battery joint venture in which Stellantis is the largest investor, has plans for three gigafactories in Europe. But earlier this year it said it was putting on hold works on two of them, in Italy and Germany, as the company switches to lower cost batteries amid slowing demand for electric vehicles.
In retaliation for possible electric vehicle taxation, China launches anti-dumping investigation into EU dairy products: Le Monde reports China's Ministry of Commerce will examine possible European anti-competitive practices concerning fresh cheese, blue cheese and other dairy specialties. Beijing has already targeted pork and spirits.
93m: The number of valid Indian passports, up from 52m a decade ago.
Reuters: India surpasses China to become Russia's top oil buyer in July
India’s first reusable hybrid rocket is expected to launch Aug. 24.
AUKUS enablers? Assessing defense trade control reforms in Australia and the United States Dr. William Greenwalt + Tom Corben
Second-largest diamond ever, 2,492 carats, unearthed in Botswana: WP reports the Canadian mining company Lucara Diamond discovered the stone in Botswana’s Karowe mine using X-ray technology.
Venezuela's Supreme Court certifies Maduro's claims he won presidential election: Le Monde reports the high court is packed with Maduro loyalists said voting tallies published online showing he lost by a landslide were forged.
Reuters: Chinese EV maker BYD eyes state incentives for Mexico plant
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Who could serve in Harris’s cabinet? Democrats are buzzing about potential contenders for high-profile administration jobs. WSJ
Wired: Kamala Harris’ campaign is launching a Twitch channel
AP: Company that sent AI calls mimicking Joe Biden to New Hampshire voters agrees to pay $1 million fine
The year of the AI election that wasn’t: More than 30 tech companies have pitched AI tools to political campaigns for November’s election. The campaigns have been wary. NYT
AI godfather fears regulators running out of time to take action: “Unfortunately, we may not have a decade to get this right.” Bloomberg
Palantir hires China hawk, former congressman, Mike Gallagher.
NASA is asking industry to build logistics and mobility systems for its long-term Moon to Mars missions.
Google joins $250 million deal to support newsrooms in California: NYT reports the agreement includes $70 million from the state, which needs legislative approval. Some lawmakers objected, calling for a more comprehensive solution with tech companies.
This small-town Wyoming election could give us a preview of the future of AI in politics: A mayoral candidate in Gillette proposes letting an AI bot help run the city. With public confidence in government low and sinking, it may be something to look into. FC
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
We finally have a definition for open-source AI: Researchers have long disagreed over what constitutes open-source AI. An influential group has offered up an answer. Rhiannon Williams + James O'Donnell
Second patient in trial for Elon Musk’s Neuralink uses design software, videogames: The entrepreneur is in a race against rivals to wire the human brain. WSJ
An ‘AI scientist’ is inventing and running its own experiments: Letting programs learn through “open-ended” experimentation may unlock remarkable new capabilities, as well as new risks. Wired
Bloomberg: Baidu’s sales stall as it struggles to cash in on AI
Baidu's AI push fails to boost core revenue amid China's economic slump: Nikkei reports Chinese search engine leader's Q2 sales dip 0.4% on online marketing slide.
How tech companies are obscuring AI’s real carbon footprint: Tech giants leading the AI race have found a way to conceal the climate impact of their growing electricity use: unbundled renewable energy certificates. Bloomberg
Bloomberg: BMW passes Tesla and tops Europe’s EV sales rankings for the first time
+ German manufacturer bucks trend of slowing demand in July
+ Sales of Chinese EV imports fell sharply due to EU tariffs
NASA’s tough choice: Fly stuck astronauts home on troubled Boeing Starliner or switch to SpaceX? The space agency has said data will guide their decision, but past tragedies loom large. WP
At Pernod Ricard, 'the group's interests come first': The pastis company created by Paul Ricard in 1932, which became the Pernod Ricard group in 1975, the world's number 2 in wines and spirits, is still run by a Ricard family member. He is determined, whatever the cost, not to repeat the mishaps of the first handover between Paul and his son Bernard in 1968. Le Monde
*** Culture ***
Iris Apfel’s 17 tips for a fabulous life: Famous for her distinctive style, as well as her bons mots, the accidental fashion pin-up wrote a final book to share everything she learnt about failure, marriage and, yes, wearing colour. The Times
The tricky politics of choosing Oxford’s next chancellor: The winner is likely to make some people cross. Economist
*** Sport ***
America’s Cup — the most fiercely contested race of them all: There is no second place in this famous yachting competition, which is why the cup, clad in Louis Vuitton, is so coveted. Stewart Campbell reports on day one of the event. The Times
The US sports league that just scrapped the draft—and made everyone a free agent: What would happen if a league had no draft? After a radical decision to ditch one of the cornerstones of American sports, the National Women’s Soccer League is about to find out. WSJ
Inside NWSL and the players’ union’s new CBA after 10 months of bargaining The Athletic
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal