Caracal Daily | August 22
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Thursday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
Ukraine launched its biggest drone attack on Moscow since the 2022 invasion in the early hours of Wednesday morning.
AP: Moscow comes under one of the largest Ukrainian drone attacks but destroys them all
Iran is reportedly holding off retaliating against Israel for killing Hamas’s leader in Tehran, in order to allow peace talks between Israel and Hamas to advance.
An eerie quiet as Biden races to silence the guns in Gaza: A cease-fire deal is tantalizingly close, but negotiations are stalled. David Ignatius
Biden approved secret nuclear strategy refocusing on Chinese threat: In a classified document approved in March, the president ordered US forces to prepare for possible coordinated nuclear confrontations with Russia, China and North Korea. NYT
Anger in Beijing over Biden’s new nuclear focus on China: The Times reports the US president is said to have told the Pentagon to prepare for a co-ordinated nuclear confrontation with Russia, North Korea and China.
We cannot give in to the isolationists. Taiwan must not fall. A new and troubling strain of isolationism is emerging within the Republican Party. Mike Pence + Ed Feulner
Analysis: US election could dictate Xi Jinping's political schedule: Bitter lesson from 2016 Clinton-Trump race reverberates through Beijing. Nikkei
Tim Walz’s long history with China shaped by horrors of Tiananmen: Democratic vice-presidential hopeful visited country dozens of times and emerged as human rights advocate. FT
Rising unemployment in China is pushing millions of college graduates into a tough bargain, with some forced to accept low-paying work or even subsist on their parents' pensions, a plight that has created a new working class of "rotten-tail kids."
China and Russia drive global nuclear power capacity to record high: Nikkei reports with as many reactors as France, China is building more while pursuing new tech.
WP: India’s lunar lander unearths evidence the moon had a magma ocean
Japan and India to update key document on security cooperation: TJT reports Tokyo is also looking to provide New Delhi with advanced naval antennas and exploring the possibility of repairing Japanese warships in India.
Signs point toward November general election following LDP race: TJT reports the advantage gained from the change in LDP leadership may diminish if the snap poll is not called soon after the party's presidential race.
A rapid depreciation of Myanmar's currency is pushing up the prices of essentials, including food and medicine, crippling ordinary households.
Australia granted environmental approvals to a planned solar and battery farm, which the environment minister touted as the world’s biggest. The $24bn project would supply electricity domestically as well as to industrial customers in Singapore, and “help turn Australia into a renewable-energy superpower.”
Africa, the new frontline between the West and Russia: The Kremlin has successfully deployed a military presence and media influence on the continent, surprising the West. A year after the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner paramilitary group that spearheaded the breakthrough, Putin's Russia is no longer hiding its intentions. Le Monde
In Congo, a desperate struggle to control the deadly mpox outbreak: Economist reports a rush to isolate the disease and vaccinate people is under way.
Mark Zuckerberg and Daniel Ek on why Europe should embrace open-source AI: It risks falling behind because of incoherent and complex regulation, say the two tech CEOs. Economist
WP: A Canadian rail work stoppage could begin tomorrow, threatening US supply chains
Central bankers' independence is under growing political pressure: The world's leading central bankers are gathering for three days in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for the Fed's traditional annual symposium. Le Monde
The perils of isolationism: The world still needs America—and America still needs the world. Condoleezza Rice
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is planning to drop out of the presidential race by the end of this week, ABC reports, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter.
Harris had more donors in 11 days than Biden did over entire run: Bloomberg reports July fundraising data reveals donor enthusiasm in the swing states of Georgia and North Carolina.
Bloomberg: Harris planning bold action on climate change, advisor says
Kamala Harris will back measures to help grow digital assets, a policy adviser to her campaign said, highlighting efforts to court an emerging cryptocurrency industry expanding its political influence.
The ‘Barbenheimer’ election: While Kamala Harris runs a campaign of unsurpassed vacuousness, on the other screen we have the dark, fissile energy of Donald Trump. Niall Ferguson
AP: New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez (D) resigns from Senate after bribery convictions
Schumer optimistic about passing federal AI regulation this year: Mitigating AI risk remains top of mind for Democrats at the DNC, but the party remains mixed on exactly what that regulation should look like and how to hold tech companies responsible. WSJ
Big Tech may be focusing its lobbying push on the California AI safety bill’s last stop: Gavin Newsom: The bill, which requires makers of very large frontier models to establish and report AI safety guidelines, passed out of the appropriations committee last week. FC
Big Tech wants AI to be regulated. Why do they oppose a California AI bill? Reuters
OpenAI joins opposition to California AI safety bill: FT reports ChatGPT maker says legislation would harm innovation and stifle start-ups in the state.
OpenAI says California’s controversial AI bill will hurt innovation: The startup wrote a letter to California State Senator Scott Wiener opposing the legislation. Bloomberg
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
AI researchers call for ‘personhood credentials’ as bots get smarter: In the paper, published online last week but not yet peer-reviewed, a group of 32 researchers from OpenAI, Microsoft, Harvard and other institutions call on technologists and policymakers to develop new ways to verify humans without sacrificing people’s privacy or anonymity. They propose a system of “personhood credentials” by which people prove offline that they physically exist as humans and receive an encrypted credential that they can use to log in to a wide range of online services. WP
McAfee is announcing a new tool that helps users figure out whether the audio they are listening to in a video on YouTube, X or any other service is real or a deepfake.
CrowdStrike, the cybersecurity firm that caused a global computer outage with a glitch in its software update, has claimed its competitors have since launched ‘shady’ attacks to scare its customers away.
How we can harness AI to fulfill our potential: Visiting scholar Cornelia Walther explains the four assets you need to protect your personal agency and critical thinking skills as AI becomes a bigger part of our lives. K@W
How’s your mental fitness as a boss? Be ready for AI to weigh in: Artificial intelligence could soon be used to suggest executives are in cognitive decline—and help them ward off scrutiny. WSJ
Bloomberg: TD takes $2.6 billion hit on US probe, sells Schwab shares
+ Bank sees ‘global resolution’ of laundering probes by year-end
+ Company sells portion of Schwab stake to fund expected fines
Waitrose plans to open 100 new convenience stores and update 150 shops as it tries to win customers back from M&S.
McDonald’s plans to create 24,000 jobs in the UK and the Republic of Ireland over the next four years. It will also open 200 new restaurants as part of its biggest expansion since 2002.
Seven & i's proposed buyout to require preapproval by Japan: Nikkei reports foreign investment rules could hinder Couche-Tard's bid for 7-Eleven parent.
Circle K will pry my Slurpee from my cold, dead hands: The Canadian company’s bid could be bad news for 7-Eleven lovers. Jessica Karl
Walmart, the biggest shareholder in Chinese e-commerce firm JD dot com, has sold its entire stake to focus on its own operations in China.
Doritos is launching Cool Ranch Zero Gravity chips on the Polaris Dawn space mission to raise funds for St. Jude Children's Research Hospital.
Apple can’t do cars. Meet the Chinese tech giants that can: Baidu, Huawei, and Xiaomi have built thriving auto businesses. Economist
Ford slows EV plans, delaying pickup and axing three-row SUV, to cut costs: Reuters reports Ford Motor is reshuffling its electric vehicle plans, killing its three-row SUV and delaying its next-generation pickup while adding a new EV pickup and van to its future lineup, as it looks to cut costs and adjust to fluctuating demand for battery-powered models.
Ford cancels electric SUV and warns of $1.9bn writedown: FT reports the carmaker says vehicle would not be profitable within a year of its launch in crowded market.
Dream or disaster, flying cars face multibillion dollar moment: Boeing faces upstarts like EHang and Joby as air travel enters a new era of uncrewed flight. Bloomberg
Bloomberg: NASA still deciding whether astronauts will go home this year
+ If SpaceX is tapped for return, might be in February 2025
+ NASA still examining data on Boeing capsule’s safety
*** Culture ***
The awful quandary of the super-rich: Palm Beach or Manhattan? Wealthy Florida transplants are back north for August, sipping Southsides—and claiming bragging rights—with their skeptical Gothamite friends. WSJ
A new loneliness cure: Apps that match you with strangers for a meal: Several services are trying to help isolated remote workers and others find offline friends. WP
*** Sport ***
The decline of football speak: The changing lexicon of the beautiful game. Philip Patrick
NFL-style changes sumo could and should make: Many of the sport’s centuries-old systems and methodologies are an increasingly awkward fit in the modern world. TJT
India flags cricket rights concerns with Disney-Reliance $8.5 billion merger: Reuters reports India's antitrust body has reached an initial assessment that the $8.5 billion India merger of Reliance and Walt Disney media assets harms competition due to their power over cricket broadcast rights, four sources told Reuters on Tuesday.
It is the biggest setback so far to the planned Disney-Reliance merger which aims to create India's biggest entertainment player.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Daily | August 21
Caracal Daily | August 21
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Wednesday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
NYT: Israeli and Hamas officials see little chance for cease-fire breakthrough
Israeli military recovers bodies of 6 hostages in Gaza operation: NYT reports the Israel Defense Forces said it recovered the bodies of Yagev Buchshtab, Alexander Dancyg, Avraham Munder, Yoram Metzger, Nadav Popplewell and Chaim Peri.
How Israel gathers intelligence to find hostages in Gaza: Israel’s military retrieved the bodies of six hostages overnight as the information they have on the whereabouts of those taken on Oct. 7 becomes more specific. WSJ
Cracks are showing in Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ strategy: WSJ reports unpredictable allied militias and weak air defenses mean Iran must walk a fine line if it wants to avoid an attack on its own territory.
Iran orders closure of German language institute in Tehran: DW reports the closure of the language school, which has been deemed to have "committed various illegal actions," comes after the closure of an Islamic Center in Hamburg in July. Germany summoned the Iranian ambassador in response.
From Gaza to Ukraine: Why is Qatar such a good negotiator? Even as Gaza cease-fire talks struggle on, mediators from Qatar are busy working on other conflicts too. What is it about the small, gas-rich Gulf state that makes it such an effective negotiator in conflicts? DW
Saudi wealth fund brings era of easy money to an end: Once considered a cash cow by dealmakers, PIF has slowed spending on global investments, bankers say. FT
Russian lawmakers want to ban Deutsche Welle: DW reports Russian lawmakers are calling for Deutsche Welle to be labeled "undesirable," resulting in a ban on its content on all platforms nationwide.
How Biden can support Ukraine’s offensive: Clearly define victory, authorize strikes and sanctions, and secure MAGA-proof funding. Jake Auchincloss
Ukraine wants peace talks in wake of Russia incursion, but not directly with Putin: Politico reports Kyiv is increasingly looking to the model of the Black Sea grain deal, where Russia and Ukraine struck separate agreements with intermediaries.
Ukrainian lawmakers pass bill aiming to ban Russian-aligned church: NYT reports the measure, which awaits President Volodymyr Zelensky’s signature, would further a long, post-Soviet split between two of the world’s largest Orthodox communities.
A number of Ukraine’s NATO allies are said to be falling short on pledges to accelerate deliveries of air-defense systems and other military equipment to fend off Russia’s 2 1/2-year old full-scale invasion.
NATO + Planet Labs have signed a contract for a “virtual” constellation of surveillance, intelligence, and reconnaissance space assets—the latest sign of NATO’s growing reliance on commercial space capabilities.
‘The demand is unstoppable’: Can Barcelona survive mass tourism? This summer, thousands of local protesters in the Spanish city denounced overtourism. With more crowds expected for the America’s Cup, we visited the areas where tensions are highest. NYT
The EU is planning a 9% tariff on Tesla imports from China.
The risk of China canceling out the benefits of international trade is worrying: Economist Laurent Augier recalls that a 2004 article by Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Samuelson anticipated a situation in which the theory of comparative advantages, the 'doxa' of globalization, would no longer apply. Le Monde
EU greenlights new chip factory in Dresden: DW reports Brussels has given the nod of approval to German state aid for the building of a new chip factory as Europe seeks better tech supply security. It came as ground was broken on the site in the eastern city of Dresden.
Germany ties itself to Taiwan on chips. It comes with risks. A new microchips plant by world leader TSMC is a boon for Dresden, but Berlin wants to avoid alienating its major trade partner Beijing. Politico
Reuters: Taiwan shows off missile firepower on rare trip to sensitive test site
US, Philippines reach deal to assist Afghan allies: Reuters reports hundreds of Afghan refugees will be temporarily relocated to the Philippines as part of a new pathway to US resettlement.
Kim Jong Un wants to block all North Koreans from escaping. It isn't working. WSJ reports a recent rise in defections from the country's protected classes is reinforcing outside assessments that Kim is contending with internal discontent that could ultimately threaten his grip on power.
Defense News: US approves $3.5 billion sale of Apache helicopters to South Korea
Reuters: US approves possible sale of Javelin missiles to Australia, Pentagon says
China has for the first time publicly acknowledged a rocket it hailed as a “milestone” in its space program had broken up in an explosion last week that was one of the biggest sources of space junk in decades.
Indonesia’s crazy new capital is built on vanity: President Jokowi doesn’t seem to be in any mood to leave politics behind. Economist
Indian tourists are conquering the world: A booming middle class, budget flights and Bollywood. Economist
A $2 trillion reckoning looms as ports become pawns in geopolitics: The gateways to global trade face costly conversions to retool in a new era of rivalry, automation, and green energy. Bloomberg
*** US Politics + Elections ***
The 2024 presidential election is on track to have an active battleground of just seven states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — and one congressional district in Nebraska.
+ Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “North Carolina moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up in our Electoral College ratings, further emphasizing a focus on 7 key swing states to the exclusion of almost everywhere else.”
Joe Biden’s place in history depends on Kamala Harris’s success: A sombre president says farewell at the Democratic convention. Economist
FT: Democrats turn to Obama in hopes of overcoming lingering divisions
Harris is beating Trump at his own game with an influencer army: For the first time ever, about 200 social-media content creators have received privileges such as access to delegates and studio space at the Democratic convention. Bloomberg
Harris and Walz can bring worldliness to Chicago — and the world: Kamala Harris seems more comfortable in a complex and multipolar world than either Donald Trump or Joe Biden is. She should show that in Chicago. Andreas Kluth
Harris hires Obama’s team in cold calculation over election race: Bloomberg reports the campaign has added prominent Obama alumni, most notably David Plouffe, who ran his 2008 operation, for senior roles. Others joining him include Stephanie Cutter, a former White House adviser and deputy campaign manager for the reelection run; Jennifer Palmieri, an ex-White House communications director; and Mitch Stewart, battleground states director in 2012. Jim Messina, who ran Obama’s 2012 reelection, cast the addition of veteran hands as a practicality.
Reuters: UAW union launches pro-Harris campaign to mobilize workers across US
House Democrats will pour $27 million into an ad blitz, almost half earmarked for New York and California, in an effort to flip GOP seats and solidify its majority.
Bloomberg: Patagonia gives US workers day off in late October to vote early
The AI election nightmare is just beginning. Here’s how it could get worse Fortune
WSJ: Alaska Air, Hawaiian Airlines clear key antitrust hurdle
FT: Canadian bid for 7-Eleven owner likely to face US antitrust scrutiny
Reuters: US state AGs seek triple damages against Live Nation for concertgoers
The Washington Post on Sunday published its first-ever story built on the work of a new AI tool called Haystacker that allows journalists to sift through large data sets — video, photo or text — to find newsworthy trends or patterns.
Bloomberg: Condé Nast, OpenAI strike multiyear partnership in new AI deal
AI initiatives would get $40M annually in draft California journalism bill agreement: Politico reports a draft agreement shared with Politico would see the state of California and Google form a public-private partnership supporting “democracy, journalism, and AI innovation.”
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
The US tipping system is teetering: Customers are growing more resentful as gratuities soar. Brooke Masters
Podcaster Alex Cooper signs a $100 million deal with SiriusXM.
Kroger sold $10.5 billion of bonds to fund its acquisition of Albertsons.
Apple will make the most expensive iPhone Pro and Pro Max models in India for the first time this year, a milestone for the US company and the Asian country’s manufacturing sector.
AI cheating is getting worse: Colleges still don’t have a plan. Ian Bogost
Authors sue Anthropic for copyright infringement over AI training: Reuters reports that three authors have filed a class-action lawsuit in California federal court against Anthropic. They say the company misused their books and hundreds of thousands of others to train its AI-powered chatbot Claude.
OpenAI to let companies customize its most powerful AI model: The new feature for businesses debuts as competition for corporate clients escalates. Bloomberg
The case for appointing AI as your next COO: Technology has reached levels of sophistication and power unimaginable just a decade ago. Rupert Younger
A personalized brain pacemaker for Parkinson’s: In a new frontier for deep brain stimulation, researchers used AI to develop individualized algorithms, which helped a skateboarder and other patients with Parkinson’s disease. NYT
Sequoia Capital invested early in Google, Nvidia, and Apple. Can Roelof Botha keep the legendary venture capital firm ahead in the AI future? Fortune
Bloomberg: US adds most power generation in 21 years as AI demand surges
+ Capacity increased by most since 2003 in first half of 2024
+ Solar power leads planned additions seen to double by year-end
The world-changing ‘killer app’ for AI could be nuclear fusion Steven Cowley
Reuters: North America sees 70% jump in data center supply in construction, CBRE report says
Sam Bankman-Fried, a personal verdict: A few thoughts on how Americans thought about the crypto trial of the century. Michael Lewis
Elon Musk’s Twitter deal may be the worst leveraged buyout deal for banks since Lehman, raising risks to Tesla Fortune
*** Culture ***
Gen Z’s confessional style fuels generational divide on LinkedIn: Longtime users irked by personal content lament that the job-hunting website has become more like Facebook. But some experts see an upside to being more open. Bloomberg
I hate breakups – so I get ChatGPT to dump people for me Alice Giddings
Vanderbilt University is asking local Florida officials to approve its proposal to build a $520 million campus in the wealthy Palm Beach area.
*** Sport ***
Plan to bring Formula 1 to Rwanda moves up a gear: South Africa was previously in pole position for F1’s return to the continent but has been overtaken by Kigali, scene of genocide 30 years ago. The Times
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal