Caracal Daily | August 21

Caracal Daily | August 21

Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.

Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.

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Happy Wednesday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

NYT: Israeli and Hamas officials see little chance for cease-fire breakthrough

Israeli military recovers bodies of 6 hostages in Gaza operation: NYT reports the Israel Defense Forces said it recovered the bodies of Yagev Buchshtab, Alexander Dancyg, Avraham Munder, Yoram Metzger, Nadav Popplewell and Chaim Peri.

How Israel gathers intelligence to find hostages in Gaza: Israel’s military retrieved the bodies of six hostages overnight as the information they have on the whereabouts of those taken on Oct. 7 becomes more specific. WSJ

Cracks are showing in Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ strategy: WSJ reports unpredictable allied militias and weak air defenses mean Iran must walk a fine line if it wants to avoid an attack on its own territory.

Iran orders closure of German language institute in Tehran: DW reports the closure of the language school, which has been deemed to have "committed various illegal actions," comes after the closure of an Islamic Center in Hamburg in July. Germany summoned the Iranian ambassador in response.

From Gaza to Ukraine: Why is Qatar such a good negotiator? Even as Gaza cease-fire talks struggle on, mediators from Qatar are busy working on other conflicts too. What is it about the small, gas-rich Gulf state that makes it such an effective negotiator in conflicts? DW

Saudi wealth fund brings era of easy money to an end: Once considered a cash cow by dealmakers, PIF has slowed spending on global investments, bankers say. FT

Russian lawmakers want to ban Deutsche Welle: DW reports Russian lawmakers are calling for Deutsche Welle to be labeled "undesirable," resulting in a ban on its content on all platforms nationwide.

How Biden can support Ukraine’s offensive: Clearly define victory, authorize strikes and sanctions, and secure MAGA-proof funding. Jake Auchincloss

Ukraine wants peace talks in wake of Russia incursion, but not directly with Putin: Politico reports Kyiv is increasingly looking to the model of the Black Sea grain deal, where Russia and Ukraine struck separate agreements with intermediaries.

Ukrainian lawmakers pass bill aiming to ban Russian-aligned church: NYT reports the measure, which awaits President Volodymyr Zelensky’s signature, would further a long, post-Soviet split between two of the world’s largest Orthodox communities.

A number of Ukraine’s NATO allies are said to be falling short on pledges to accelerate deliveries of air-defense systems and other military equipment to fend off Russia’s 2 1/2-year old full-scale invasion.

NATO + Planet Labs have signed a contract for a “virtual” constellation of surveillance, intelligence, and reconnaissance space assets—the latest sign of NATO’s growing reliance on commercial space capabilities.

‘The demand is unstoppable’: Can Barcelona survive mass tourism? This summer, thousands of local protesters in the Spanish city denounced overtourism. With more crowds expected for the America’s Cup, we visited the areas where tensions are highest. NYT

The EU is planning a 9% tariff on Tesla imports from China.

The risk of China canceling out the benefits of international trade is worrying: Economist Laurent Augier recalls that a 2004 article by Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Samuelson anticipated a situation in which the theory of comparative advantages, the 'doxa' of globalization, would no longer apply. Le Monde

EU greenlights new chip factory in Dresden: DW reports Brussels has given the nod of approval to German state aid for the building of a new chip factory as Europe seeks better tech supply security. It came as ground was broken on the site in the eastern city of Dresden.

Germany ties itself to Taiwan on chips. It comes with risks. A new microchips plant by world leader TSMC is a boon for Dresden, but Berlin wants to avoid alienating its major trade partner Beijing. Politico

Reuters: Taiwan shows off missile firepower on rare trip to sensitive test site

US, Philippines reach deal to assist Afghan allies: Reuters reports hundreds of Afghan refugees will be temporarily relocated to the Philippines as part of a new pathway to US resettlement.

Kim Jong Un wants to block all North Koreans from escaping. It isn't working. WSJ reports a recent rise in defections from the country's protected classes is reinforcing outside assessments that Kim is contending with internal discontent that could ultimately threaten his grip on power.

Defense News: US approves $3.5 billion sale of Apache helicopters to South Korea

Reuters: US approves possible sale of Javelin missiles to Australia, Pentagon says

China has for the first time publicly acknowledged a rocket it hailed as a “milestone” in its space program had broken up in an explosion last week that was one of the biggest sources of space junk in decades.

Indonesia’s crazy new capital is built on vanity: President Jokowi doesn’t seem to be in any mood to leave politics behind. Economist

Indian tourists are conquering the world: A booming middle class, budget flights and Bollywood. Economist

A $2 trillion reckoning looms as ports become pawns in geopolitics: The gateways to global trade face costly conversions to retool in a new era of rivalry, automation, and green energy. Bloomberg

***  US Politics + Elections ***

The 2024 presidential election is on track to have an active battleground of just seven states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin —  and one congressional district in Nebraska.

+ Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “North Carolina moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up in our Electoral College ratings, further emphasizing a focus on 7 key swing states to the exclusion of almost everywhere else.”

Joe Biden’s place in history depends on Kamala Harris’s success: A sombre president says farewell at the Democratic convention. Economist

FT: Democrats turn to Obama in hopes of overcoming lingering divisions

Harris is beating Trump at his own game with an influencer army: For the first time ever, about 200 social-media content creators have received privileges such as access to delegates and studio space at the Democratic convention. Bloomberg

Harris and Walz can bring worldliness to Chicago — and the world: Kamala Harris seems more comfortable in a complex and multipolar world than either Donald Trump or Joe Biden is. She should show that in Chicago. Andreas Kluth

Harris hires Obama’s team in cold calculation over election race: Bloomberg reports the campaign has added prominent Obama alumni, most notably David Plouffe, who ran his 2008 operation, for senior roles. Others joining him include Stephanie Cutter, a former White House adviser and deputy campaign manager for the reelection run; Jennifer Palmieri, an ex-White House communications director; and Mitch Stewart, battleground states director in 2012. Jim Messina, who ran Obama’s 2012 reelection, cast the addition of veteran hands as a practicality.

Reuters: UAW union launches pro-Harris campaign to mobilize workers across US

House Democrats will pour $27 million into an ad blitz, almost half earmarked for New York and California, in an effort to flip GOP seats and solidify its majority.

Bloomberg: Patagonia gives US workers day off in late October to vote early

The AI election nightmare is just beginning. Here’s how it could get worse Fortune

WSJ: Alaska Air, Hawaiian Airlines clear key antitrust hurdle

FT: Canadian bid for 7-Eleven owner likely to face US antitrust scrutiny

Reuters: US state AGs seek triple damages against Live Nation for concertgoers

The Washington Post on Sunday published its first-ever story built on the work of a new AI tool called Haystacker that allows journalists to sift through large data sets — video, photo or text — to find newsworthy trends or patterns.

Bloomberg: Condé Nast, OpenAI strike multiyear partnership in new AI deal

AI initiatives would get $40M annually in draft California journalism bill agreement: Politico reports a draft agreement shared with Politico would see the state of California and Google form a public-private partnership supporting “democracy, journalism, and AI innovation.”

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

The US tipping system is teetering: Customers are growing more resentful as gratuities soar. Brooke Masters

Podcaster Alex Cooper signs a $100 million deal with SiriusXM.

Kroger sold $10.5 billion of bonds to fund its acquisition of Albertsons.

Apple will make the most expensive iPhone Pro and Pro Max models in India for the first time this year, a milestone for the US company and the Asian country’s manufacturing sector.

AI cheating is getting worse: Colleges still don’t have a plan. Ian Bogost

Authors sue Anthropic for copyright infringement over AI training: Reuters reports that three authors have filed a class-action lawsuit in California federal court against Anthropic. They say the company misused their books and hundreds of thousands of others to train its AI-powered chatbot Claude. 

OpenAI to let companies customize its most powerful AI model: The new feature for businesses debuts as competition for corporate clients escalates. Bloomberg

The case for appointing AI as your next COO: Technology has reached levels of sophistication and power unimaginable just a decade ago. Rupert Younger

A personalized brain pacemaker for Parkinson’s: In a new frontier for deep brain stimulation, researchers used AI to develop individualized algorithms, which helped a skateboarder and other patients with Parkinson’s disease. NYT

Sequoia Capital invested early in Google, Nvidia, and Apple. Can Roelof Botha keep the legendary venture capital firm ahead in the AI future? Fortune

Bloomberg: US adds most power generation in 21 years as AI demand surges

+ Capacity increased by most since 2003 in first half of 2024

+ Solar power leads planned additions seen to double by year-end

The world-changing ‘killer app’ for AI could be nuclear fusion Steven Cowley

Reuters: North America sees 70% jump in data center supply in construction, CBRE report says

Sam Bankman-Fried, a personal verdict: A few thoughts on how Americans thought about the crypto trial of the century. Michael Lewis

Elon Musk’s Twitter deal may be the worst leveraged buyout deal for banks since Lehman, raising risks to Tesla Fortune

*** Culture ***

Gen Z’s confessional style fuels generational divide on LinkedIn: Longtime users irked by personal content lament that the job-hunting website has become more like Facebook. But some experts see an upside to being more open. Bloomberg

I hate breakups – so I get ChatGPT to dump people for me  Alice Giddings

Vanderbilt University is asking local Florida officials to approve its proposal to build a $520 million campus in the wealthy Palm Beach area.

*** Sport ***

Plan to bring Formula 1 to Rwanda moves up a gear: South Africa was previously in pole position for F1’s return to the continent but has been overtaken by Kigali, scene of genocide 30 years ago. The Times


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal