Caracal Daily | August 22

Caracal Daily | August 22

Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.

Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.

Always Be Communicating.

Happy Thursday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

Ukraine launched its biggest drone attack on Moscow since the 2022 invasion in the early hours of Wednesday morning.

AP: Moscow comes under one of the largest Ukrainian drone attacks but destroys them all

Iran is reportedly holding off retaliating against Israel for killing Hamas’s leader in Tehran, in order to allow peace talks between Israel and Hamas to advance.

An eerie quiet as Biden races to silence the guns in Gaza: A cease-fire deal is tantalizingly close, but negotiations are stalled. David Ignatius

Biden approved secret nuclear strategy refocusing on Chinese threat: In a classified document approved in March, the president ordered US forces to prepare for possible coordinated nuclear confrontations with Russia, China and North Korea. NYT

Anger in Beijing over Biden’s new nuclear focus on China: The Times reports the US president is said to have told the Pentagon to prepare for a co-ordinated nuclear confrontation with Russia, North Korea and China.

We cannot give in to the isolationists. Taiwan must not fall. A new and troubling strain of isolationism is emerging within the Republican Party. Mike Pence + Ed Feulner

Analysis: US election could dictate Xi Jinping's political schedule: Bitter lesson from 2016 Clinton-Trump race reverberates through Beijing. Nikkei

Tim Walz’s long history with China shaped by horrors of Tiananmen: Democratic vice-presidential hopeful visited country dozens of times and emerged as human rights advocate. FT

Rising unemployment in China is pushing millions of college graduates into a tough bargain, with some forced to accept low-paying work or even subsist on their parents' pensions, a plight that has created a new working class of "rotten-tail kids."

China and Russia drive global nuclear power capacity to record high: Nikkei reports with as many reactors as France, China is building more while pursuing new tech.

WP: India’s lunar lander unearths evidence the moon had a magma ocean

Japan and India to update key document on security cooperation: TJT reports Tokyo is also looking to provide New Delhi with advanced naval antennas and exploring the possibility of repairing Japanese warships in India.

Signs point toward November general election following LDP race: TJT reports the advantage gained from the change in LDP leadership may diminish if the snap poll is not called soon after the party's presidential race.

A rapid depreciation of Myanmar's currency is pushing up the prices of essentials, including food and medicine, crippling ordinary households.

Australia granted environmental approvals to a planned solar and battery farm, which the environment minister touted as the world’s biggest. The $24bn project would supply electricity domestically as well as to industrial customers in Singapore, and “help turn Australia into a renewable-energy superpower.”

Africa, the new frontline between the West and Russia: The Kremlin has successfully deployed a military presence and media influence on the continent, surprising the West. A year after the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner paramilitary group that spearheaded the breakthrough, Putin's Russia is no longer hiding its intentions. Le Monde

In Congo, a desperate struggle to control the deadly mpox outbreak: Economist reports a rush to isolate the disease and vaccinate people is under way. 

Mark Zuckerberg and Daniel Ek on why Europe should embrace open-source AI: It risks falling behind because of incoherent and complex regulation, say the two tech CEOs. Economist

WP: A Canadian rail work stoppage could begin tomorrow, threatening US supply chains

Central bankers' independence is under growing political pressure: The world's leading central bankers are gathering for three days in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for the Fed's traditional annual symposium. Le Monde

The perils of isolationism: The world still needs America—and America still needs the world. Condoleezza Rice

***  US Politics + Elections ***

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is planning to drop out of the presidential race by the end of this week, ABC reports, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter.

Harris had more donors in 11 days than Biden did over entire run: Bloomberg reports July fundraising data reveals donor enthusiasm in the swing states of Georgia and North Carolina.

Bloomberg: Harris planning bold action on climate change, advisor says

Kamala Harris will back measures to help grow digital assets, a policy adviser to her campaign said, highlighting efforts to court an emerging cryptocurrency industry expanding its political influence.

The ‘Barbenheimer’ election: While Kamala Harris runs a campaign of unsurpassed vacuousness, on the other screen we have the dark, fissile energy of Donald Trump. Niall Ferguson

AP: New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez (D) resigns from Senate after bribery convictions

Schumer optimistic about passing federal AI regulation this year: Mitigating AI risk remains top of mind for Democrats at the DNC, but the party remains mixed on exactly what that regulation should look like and how to hold tech companies responsible. WSJ

Big Tech may be focusing its lobbying push on the California AI safety bill’s last stop: Gavin Newsom: The bill, which requires makers of very large frontier models to establish and report AI safety guidelines, passed out of the appropriations committee last week. FC

Big Tech wants AI to be regulated. Why do they oppose a California AI bill? Reuters

OpenAI joins opposition to California AI safety bill: FT reports ChatGPT maker says legislation would harm innovation and stifle start-ups in the state.

OpenAI says California’s controversial AI bill will hurt innovation: The startup wrote a letter to California State Senator Scott Wiener opposing the legislation. Bloomberg

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

AI researchers call for ‘personhood credentials’ as bots get smarter: In the paper, published online last week but not yet peer-reviewed, a group of 32 researchers from OpenAI, Microsoft, Harvard and other institutions call on technologists and policymakers to develop new ways to verify humans without sacrificing people’s privacy or anonymity. They propose a system of “personhood credentials” by which people prove offline that they physically exist as humans and receive an encrypted credential that they can use to log in to a wide range of online services. WP

McAfee is announcing a new tool that helps users figure out whether the audio they are listening to in a video on YouTube, X or any other service is real or a deepfake.

CrowdStrike, the cybersecurity firm that caused a global computer outage with a glitch in its software update, has claimed its competitors have since launched ‘shady’ attacks to scare its customers away.

How we can harness AI to fulfill our potential: Visiting scholar Cornelia Walther explains the four assets you need to protect your personal agency and critical thinking skills as AI becomes a bigger part of our lives. K@W

How’s your mental fitness as a boss? Be ready for AI to weigh in: Artificial intelligence could soon be used to suggest executives are in cognitive decline—and help them ward off scrutiny. WSJ

Bloomberg: TD takes $2.6 billion hit on US probe, sells Schwab shares

+ Bank sees ‘global resolution’ of laundering probes by year-end

+ Company sells portion of Schwab stake to fund expected fines

Waitrose plans to open 100 new convenience stores and update 150 shops as it tries to win customers back from M&S.

McDonald’s plans to create 24,000 jobs in the UK and the Republic of Ireland over the next four years. It will also open 200 new restaurants as part of its biggest expansion since 2002.

Seven & i's proposed buyout to require preapproval by Japan: Nikkei reports foreign investment rules could hinder Couche-Tard's bid for 7-Eleven parent.

Circle K will pry my Slurpee from my cold, dead hands: The Canadian company’s bid could be bad news for 7-Eleven lovers. Jessica Karl

Walmart, the biggest shareholder in Chinese e-commerce firm JD dot com, has sold its entire stake to focus on its own operations in China.

Doritos is launching Cool Ranch Zero Gravity chips on the Polaris Dawn space mission to raise funds for St. Jude Children's Research Hospital.

Apple can’t do cars. Meet the Chinese tech giants that can: Baidu, Huawei, and Xiaomi have built thriving auto businesses. Economist

Ford slows EV plans, delaying pickup and axing three-row SUV, to cut costs: Reuters reports Ford Motor is reshuffling its electric vehicle plans, killing its three-row SUV and delaying its next-generation pickup while adding a new EV pickup and van to its future lineup, as it looks to cut costs and adjust to fluctuating demand for battery-powered models.

Ford cancels electric SUV and warns of $1.9bn writedown: FT reports the carmaker says vehicle would not be profitable within a year of its launch in crowded market.

Dream or disaster, flying cars face multibillion dollar moment: Boeing faces upstarts like EHang and Joby as air travel enters a new era of uncrewed flight. Bloomberg

Bloomberg: NASA still deciding whether astronauts will go home this year

+ If SpaceX is tapped for return, might be in February 2025

+ NASA still examining data on Boeing capsule’s safety

*** Culture ***

The awful quandary of the super-rich: Palm Beach or Manhattan? Wealthy Florida transplants are back north for August, sipping Southsides—and claiming bragging rights—with their skeptical Gothamite friends. WSJ

A new loneliness cure: Apps that match you with strangers for a meal: Several services are trying to help isolated remote workers and others find offline friends. WP

*** Sport ***

The decline of football speak: The changing lexicon of the beautiful game. Philip Patrick

NFL-style changes sumo could and should make: Many of the sport’s centuries-old systems and methodologies are an increasingly awkward fit in the modern world. TJT

India flags cricket rights concerns with Disney-Reliance $8.5 billion merger: Reuters reports  India's antitrust body has reached an initial assessment that the $8.5 billion India merger of Reliance and Walt Disney media assets harms competition due to their power over cricket broadcast rights, four sources told Reuters on Tuesday.
It is the biggest setback so far to the planned Disney-Reliance merger which aims to create India's biggest entertainment player.


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal