Caracal Daily | August 29
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Thursday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
Reuters: Ukraine's Zelenskiy to present plan to Biden to end war with Russia
In Kyiv, Zelensky presents Ukrainian offensive in Kursk as 'victory plan': Le Monde reports in a rare appearance before the press, the Ukrainian president, in a position of strength, justified the incursion of his armed forces into Russian territory in order to push Moscow to negotiate.
WP: Russia claims slain Reuters security adviser was a British spy
WSJ: Israel launches large-scale raids in West Bank
The US Navy has positioned about 18 warships including two aircraft carriers in and around the Middle East as it seeks to deter Iran and its proxies from conducting attacks that could evolve into all-out war with Israel.
After six years in China, our bureau chief says farewell: He leaves a country that is increasingly unwilling to accept foreign scrutiny. Economist
Analysis: Elders stay faithful to Deng, topple 'reformer Xi Jinping': Summer rebellion forces Xinhua to delete a commentary that rewrote party history. Nikkei
Chinese officials struggle to build ties with Donald Trump’s campaign: FT reports hostility to Beijing in Washington hinders attempt to establish relations ahead of US presidential election.
WP: China, US agree to a leader call in top White House aide’s Beijing visit
China and US discuss plans for 'leader-level call' in coming weeks: Nikkei reports Wang Yi and Jake Sullivan hammer each side's positions on Taiwan, South China Sea.
Joe Biden and Xi Jinping to speak by phone amid effort to boost US-China relations: FT reports top foreign policy officials from both countries are holding talks in Beijing.
AP: US military open to escorting Philippine ships in South China Sea
Britain’s unusual stance on Chinese electric vehicles: Unlike America or Europe, Britain is welcoming the cheap cars—for now. Economist
Italians fight for the right to feast on the beach: For those who feel priced out of expensive, privatized seaside clubs in Italy, elaborate lunch spreads feel like the last bastion of good spirits. NYT
Oil baron confronts skepticism over his $1.5 billion railroad to Banff: Adam Waterous is on a quest to relieve car congestion in the mountain paradise of Banff National Park, but conservationists are dubious about his plans. Bloomberg
US tech is holding back some AI products from Europe: Meta and Apple are not launching key AI products on the continent, citing the regulatory atmosphere. But we’ve seen this move before. Bloomberg
A fake spy, Russian oil and $1 million funneled to Democrats: Former business partner claims Gaurav Srivastava scammed millions by posing as a CIA operative; a photo op with Biden. WSJ
*** US Politics + Elections ***
The American dream feels out of reach for most: A Wall Street Journal poll shows people want a home, a family and a comfortable retirement, but say those goals are tough to achieve even with hard work. WSJ
This is the most important vibelection of your lifetime: What matters more to voters, digital trading cards or clean gutters? Actual policy positions aren’t yet making much of an impact. Jessica Karl
Harris’s ad-war message: Trump is pro-billionaire, she worked at McDonald’s: NYT reports the ads, focused on cutting costs, are meant to win over voters who believe Donald Trump would be better on the economy. They also signal a shift in tone from President Biden.
Kamala Harris’s tax increases and cuts take shape: WSJ reports taxes would go up for high-income households, most Americans’ taxes would be unchanged or lower and many parents would get new breaks.
Democrats are chasing a high-risk, high-reward strategy in Georgia: Politico reports if Democrats want to win the state again, they have to improve their margins, particularly among Black and working-class voters.
Democrats are already buzzing about a Merrick Garland successor: Here’s what Kamala Harris needs in an attorney general. Politico
Far from presidential battlegrounds, blue states could decide Congress: New York and California have become unlikely focal points in the fight for control of the House, as Democrats toil to appeal to wary voters in districts won by President Biden. NYT
Bloomberg: Lara Trump says GOP to pour money into ‘must-win’ Pennsylvania
Trump reposts crude sexual remark about Harris on Truth Social: NYT reports though the former president has a history of making crass insults about opponents, the reposts signal his willingness to continue to shatter longstanding political norms.
Elon Musk, eyeing edge for Trump, hires Republican political adviser: NYT reports Chris Young, most recently a senior political official at PhRMA, the trade association of the pharmaceutical industry that does some grass-roots organizing, is joining Mr. Musk’s team, according to three people briefed on the move. They spoke on condition of anonymity because it was not public.
+ “We’ve turned Congress into a ‘green room’ for Fox News and MSNBC, instead of being the key institution of government.” -- Former Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI), quoted by the Washington Post, on why he left Congress.
California legislature approves bill proposing sweeping AI restrictions: Gov. Gavin Newsom must now decide whether to sign into law the fiercely debated legislation. NYT
Controversial AI safety bill passes California Assembly Bloomberg
+ Bill now heads back to state Senate, then to governor’s desk
+ National figures from Musk to Pelosi have weighed in
+ @Scott_Wiener: SB 1047 — our AI safety bill — just passed off the Assembly floor. I’m proud of the diverse coalition behind this bill — a coalition that deeply believes in both innovation & safety. AI has so much promise to make the world a better place. It’s exciting. Thank you, colleagues.
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
Telegram founder charged with wide range of crimes in France: NYT reports Pavel Durov, who was arrested near Paris over the weekend as part of a broad investigation into criminal activity on the platform, was also barred from leaving the country.
Can tech executives be held responsible for what happens on their platforms? The indictment of Pavel Durov, Telegram’s founder, as part of an investigation into illicit activities on the messaging app set off worries about the personal liability of tech executives. NYT
Telegram’s loudest defender: The global crypto industry: NYT reports when the messaging app’s founder, Pavel Durov, was arrested, he received a flood of support from a multitrillion-dollar industry that relies on it.
Arizona deal latest sign of booming demand for sites to power AI: WSJ reports Tract’s $136 million purchase of a 2,100-acre site near Phoenix represents the next big thing in land speculation: finding sites to power a new wave of data centers.
AI's race for US energy butts up against Bitcoin mining Reuters
OpenAI in talks for funding round valuing it above $100 billion: WSJ reports Thrive Capital and Microsoft are among the investors putting several billion dollars into the ChatGPT maker.
Exodus at OpenAI: Nearly half of AGI safety staffers have left, says former researcher: Nearly half the OpenAI staff that once focused on the long-term risks of superpowerful AI have left the company in the past several months, according to Daniel Kokotajlo, a former OpenAI governance researcher. Fortune
OpenAI is reportedly close to releasing a new AI product — codenamed Strawberry — that produces fewer hallucinations and is better at reasoning through tough problems.
Meta is accused of “bullying” the open-source community: It hopes its models will set the standard for open-source artificial intelligence. Economist
Klarna aims to halve workforce with AI-driven gains: FT reports the chief executive of buy now, pay later group heralds benefits of the technology as it narrows quarterly loss.
Google has a new AI feature that will summarize conversations and take notes for you in Google Meet. The feature started rolling out to some Workplace customers yesterday.
Elon Musk’s Grok is a risky experiment in AI content moderation: Bloomberg reports the unfettered image generation tool on X is a test case for safe AI.
WP: Nvidia results show AI boom continues despite recent bubble fears
Nvidia posts strong quarter, offers bullish outlook: WSJ reports the AI chip giant's results indicated persistent momentum in the AI boom, though gross margins narrowed due partly to production issues with its next-generation chips. Its stock fell nearly 7% in after-hours trading.
Partying with the Nvidia superfans: It’s so wealthy — and popular — that people threw a party just to watch a quarterly earnings report. Kevin T. Dugan
What could stop the Nvidia frenzy? Two contradictions could stymie the AI chipmaker-in-chief. Economist
Robots are starting (good) fires in California: BurnBot’s tank-like robot helps manage wildfire risk by conducting controlled burns with no open flames, minimal smoke and much less manpower. Bloomberg
WSJ: Yelp sues Google, alleging abuse of position to dominate local search
WSJ: Berkshire Hathaway tops $1 trillion market capitalization
SpaceX has postponed its attempt to launch an expedition featuring an all-civilian crew that is aiming to carry out the first-ever spacewalk by private citizens.
Ford changes DEI policies as conservative pressure campaign grows: FT reports the carmaker says it has ‘taken a fresh look’ at diversity practices to ensure they drive business results.
Profits at BYD, China’s biggest carmaker, rose by 24% year on year during the first half of 2024. Higher electric-vehicle sales boosted revenues
JD Power cuts EV sales forecast in US: Bloomberg reports automotive researcher JD Power said Wednesday that battery-powered models will account for just 9% of sales in the US this year, down from its previous forecast of 12.4%.
*** Culture ***
The patriotic wisdom of Bill Murray’s silly speech in ‘Stripes’: We’re still a nation of loyal, sometimes lovable mutts ‘whose forefathers were kicked out of every decent country in the world.’ WSJ
Live free or dial: New Hampshire fights to keep lone area code: Only a small number of states have just one, and “it’s definitely a point of pride.” WSJ
The Cut: Cosmopolitan hires a new editor-in-chief from Highsnobiety
*** Sport ***
The Athletic: As US Open bakes in hot New York weather, ice bags are the hottest accessory
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Daily | August 28
Caracal Daily | August 28
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Wednesday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
Politico: Ukraine uses Kursk success to press Biden on lifting weapons restrictions
AP: Ukraine says it used US glide bombs in Russia’s Kursk region and has retaken some land in Kharkiv
Ukraine’s Zelensky says incursion into Russia part of plan to end war: WP reports Ukraine’s top commander reported that more than a 100 settlements in Russia’s Kursk region had been taken, along with 594 prisoners of war.
+ Oleksandr Syrsky, the head of Ukraine’s army, said his soldiers had captured nearly 600 Russian soldiers since Ukraine began its incursion into Kursk.
Why Ukraine’s allies are divided over deep strikes into Russia: UK has pressed US to back Kyiv’s use of Storm Shadow missiles on Russian territory. FT
Ukraine has crossed Moscow’s and Washington’s red lines: Zelenskyy is prepared to ignore Russia’s nuclear threats. But the Biden administration is still wary of escalating the war. Gideon Rachman
‘I cannot understand Putin’s hold on Trump’: In an exclusive excerpt from his new memoir, HR McMaster details the clashes over Russia that led President Trump to fire him as national security adviser. HR McMaster
AP: Security was stepped up temporarily at a NATO air base in Germany because of a ‘potential threat’
Tighter US-Japan alliance is unexpected legacy of Kishida-Biden era: Uncertainty over successors threatens momentum of 'global partnership.' Nikkei
China’s tech giants splash out on AI despite US restrictions: Capital spending doubles as Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu buy processors and infrastructure behind the training of large language models. FT
A history museum shows how China wants to remake Hong Kong: A new exhibit calls for the city’s residents to be patriotic, loyal to the Chinese Communist Party and ever vigilant to supposed threats to the state. NYT
Chinese government hackers have penetrated US internet providers to spy on users: Beijing’s hacking effort has “dramatically stepped up from where it used to be,” says former top US cybersecurity official. WP
BBC: Top-level meeting shows China - and Xi - still a priority for Biden
Jake Sullivan meets Wang Yi on China visit to 'manage' tense ties: Nikkei reports US national security adviser and China's top diplomat juggling 'complex' agenda.
Sullivan heads to Beijing to address concerns about Russia ties, South China Sea tensions: Politico reports Sullivan’s trip will be the first visit from a national security adviser to mainland China since the Obama administration.
The world’s call center capital is gripped by AI fever — and fear: The experiences of staff in the Philippines’ outsourcing industry are a preview of the challenges and choices coming soon to white-collar workers around the globe. Bloomberg
UK attorney general intervenes in Foreign Office review of weapons sales to Israel: Guardian reports Richard Hermer says officials need to be certain that weapons are not being used to breach international humanitarian law.
Keir Starmer: Labour needs a decade to rebuild Britain: The prime minister will prepare the public for potentially unpopular decisions, such as tax rises, by blaming the ‘rubble and ruin’ left by the Conservatives. The Times
In first major speech, Keir Starmer paints a gloomy picture of Britain: The new UK prime minister talked about societal “rot” and financial black holes and said “things will get worse before they get better.” WP
Keir Starmer seeks German deal to ‘turn corner’ on Brexit: The prime minister will meet Olaf Scholz in Berlin to discuss better access for British businesses and fix our relationship with the EU. The Times
Macron finds himself locked in an icy face-off with the political parties he loathes: The French president, who rejected the left's PM candidate, has had a bad relationship with parties for 10 years. The possible appointment of a technocrat would be a new attempt to bypass them. Solenn de Royer
No evidence that Maduro won, a top Venezuelan election official says: In an interview with The New York Times, an electoral council official expressed grave doubts about claims to victory by the authoritarian president, Nicolás Maduro.
Mexico pauses relations with US embassy amid clash over judicial overhaul: NYT reports President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s proposed changes to the judiciary are at the center of a diplomatic fight with the United States in the last weeks of his presidency.
Justin Trudeau says Canada will impose steep tariffs on Chinese EVs and steel: FT reports the move replicates US measures and follows visit to Ottawa by top US national security official.
Harris and Trump embrace tariffs, though their approaches differ: Both Democrats and Republicans are expressing support for tariffs to protect American industry, reversing decades of trade thinking in Washington. NYT
Why Jackson Hole is the Fed’s biggest shindig: The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual conference in Wyoming gets a lot of buzz. Here’s why it matters for Wall Street and the economy. NYT
How Rep. Mike Gallagher, a rising GOP star, was driven out of politics: Could the forces that pushed him out soon be eclipsed? David Ignatius
Ronald Reagan was more ideological — and more pragmatic — than you think Max Boot
*** US Politics + Elections ***
NC-POTUS: The Cook Political Report moves North Carolina to a "Toss Up" in the presidential election.
+ Democratic strategist James Carville told the New Republic that Donald Trump “knows he’s in deep trouble” — and it’s “driving him crazy.”
Why Biden isn’t dragging down Harris: It might be because strong majorities of Americans don’t think she played a central role in key administration policies. WP
How Kamala Harris would govern: The vice president’s advisers are moving quickly to map out policy plans, but the appetite for ambitious efforts is diminished from four years ago. WSJ
CNN: Harris and Walz to sit with CNN for exclusive first joint interview since campaign began
Why Kamala Harris is safer giving more interviews: The fewer the interviews, the bigger the risk of a gaffe. Jonathan Chait
Kamala Harris is election favourite — as 200 Republican aides back her: The Times reports Democrat is given 55 per cent chance of winning and receives endorsements from former staff to the Bushes, Mitt Romney and John McCain.
Harris called Trump’s border wall ‘medieval’. Now she backs funding it: The Times reports Democratic candidate accused of ‘flip-flopping’ with support for bipartisan immigration bill that Donald Trump killed in Congress.
Semafor: Harris will use human Donald Trump stand-ins, not AI, for debate prep
Trump suggests he might skip ABC debate with Harris: WP reports the Sept. 10 debate with ABC is the only one both campaigns have agreed to do with one of the major networks.
After raising complaints, Trump says he’ll participate in debate with Harris: WP reports the ABC News-hosted debate is set to take place Sept. 10 in Philadelphia, Trump said Tuesday.
Trump raising money by selling pieces of suit he wore in Biden debate: Guardian reports not for the first time, Trump will cut up one of his suits to sell to supporters who buy enough digital trading cards.
Are Trump’s campaign rallies energizing his base – or sowing doubt? Guardian reports given rambling speeches and personal attacks over policy talk, supporters wonder if events do more harm than good.
To lure Michigan voters, Trump campaign stokes China fears: NYT reports JD Vance, the Republican vice-presidential nominee, waded into a fight over plans by Gotion, a Chinese battery plant, to build a factory in Michigan.
Kash Patel will do anything for Trump: Why Kash Patel is exactly the kind of person who would serve in a second Trump administration. The Atlantic
Trump to put Kennedy and Gabbard on his transition team: NYT reports Kennedy and Gabbard, who had been progressive Democrats for many years, will join the former president’s sons and Senator JD Vance, his running mate, as honorary co-chairs.
Revised indictment tries to salvage Trump D.C. trial after immunity ruling: WP reports the superseding indictment comes just before an election period window was about to close on filing such charges.
The Hill: Democrats see Harris as boosting their chances for House majority
MD-SEN: A new AARP poll in Maryland finds Larry Hogan (R) and Angela Alsobrooks (D) tied in the US Senate race, 46% to 46%.
Elon Musk backs California bill to regulate AI: By backing the legislation, the bombastic tech billionaire breaks with some of Silicon Valley’s most powerful players. Politico
Why Texas Republicans are souring on crypto: Playing the state’s energy market has become more profitable than mining bitcoin. Economist
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
Is that voice real or AI? This startup says it can tell: Bloomberg reports Pindrop Security works with banks to identify spam calls — it’s coming to social media next.
AP: Police officers are starting to use AI chatbots to write crime reports. Will they hold up in court?
Amazon aims to launch delayed AI Alexa subscription in October: WP reports the revamp of the voice assistant, which documents say will include a daily AI-generated news summary, would come just weeks before the US presidential election.
What all parents can learn from the troubled AI in Los Angeles schools: An education expert says schools fail to ask essential questions about AI for children: Does it work? And is it better than other alternatives? WP
AI doomers had their big moment: Did they waste it? Ross Andersen
The AI guys are driving themselves mad John Herrman
How would we even know if AI went rogue? An early warning system could help fix the dangerous information gap between Big Tech and the US. Vox
When AI’s outpost is a threat to AI itself: As AI-generated data becomes harder to detect, it’s increasingly likely to be ingested by future AI, leading to worse results. TheUpshot
'It looks like cat food': The grey goop dreamed up by artificial intelligence BBC
Nvidia rally mints millionaires too busy to bask in new wealth: Many of the chipmaker’s employees have grown rich but still face a stress-filled work life. Bloomberg
Chip challengers try to break Nvidia’s grip on AI market: FT reports companies such as Cerebras, d-Matrix and Groq are focusing on cheaper, more specialised products.
Hungry for clean energy, Facebook looks to a new type of geothermal: As electricity demand from data centers soars, Meta and Google are looking at a novel solution: harnessing clean heat far below Earth’s surface. NYT
Will AI ruin the planet or save the planet? It’s a notorious energy hog. But artificial intelligence can also foster innovation and discovery, and it could speed the global transition to cleaner power. NYT
Can a closed nuclear power plant from the ’70s be brought back to life? Surging demand for electricity and new investment in green energy drove the plan to restart Michigan’s decommissioned Palisades plant. It would be a global first. WSJ
A rose, by any other name Dave Trott
IKEA launches secondhand marketplace to compete with eBay: FT reports the furniture retailer challenges digital classified ads ‘oligopoly’ with peer-to-peer sales platform for its products.
IKEA launches new urban store model in Tokyo's Shibuya: Nikkei reports the city center locations tie into online shopping to help make up for small size.
Leonard Riggio, who built Barnes & Noble into book-retailing powerhouse, has died: WSJ reports Riggio, a seminal figure in the industry who died at age 83, transformed the company into what was once the country’s largest publicly traded bookstore chain.
Apple rethinks its movie strategy after a string of misses: NYT reports that “Wolfs,” a new film starring George Clooney and Brad Pitt, was going to get a robust theatrical release. But the company is curtailing that plan.
A company called Archer Aviation says it plans to build an ambitious network of “vertiports” across LA by 2026.
How NASA plans to rescue two astronauts stuck in space: Almost three months ago, two NASA astronauts flew to space in a Boeing spacecraft – and have been stuck at the International Space Station ever since. Today on “Post Reports,” what went wrong and what this could mean for the future of spaceflight. WP
*** Culture ***
The fury of the Med: I was one of many sailors to underestimate the sea. Harry Mount
‘I’ve never seen a vessel this size go down so quickly’: Why did the Bayesian sink in 60 seconds? Guardian
Gallagher brothers tease Oasis reunion: BBC reports Liam and Noel Gallagher have ramped up speculation that an Oasis reunion could finally be on the cards as the brothers teased that a band announcement could be made today.
Oasis is reuniting — after one of the nastiest feuds in rock: Oasis, the British band behind such tracks as “Wonderwall” and “Champagne Supernova,” plans to reunite for a world tour in 2025. WP
UC-Santa Barbara was named as the best party school in the US.
*** Sport ***
Private equity ownership is coming to the NFL: WSJ reports the NFL is finally set to allow private equity to buy into teams—and firms are so eager to get into the business of football that they’re accepting unusually strict terms to do so.
NFL ushers in new era by allowing private equity ownership Bloomberg
Kelce brothers sign Amazon ‘New Heights’ podcast deal worth more than $100 million: WSJ reports the podcast launched nearly two years ago amid a boom in celebrity-hosted shows and has risen up the charts.
Sven-Goran Eriksson obituary: Urbane England coach with a lively side: The first foreign manager of the men’s football team endured scepticism and media frenzy, for his love life as much as his handling of a ‘golden generation.’ The Times
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal