Caracal Daily | September 13
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Friday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
APCO | Geopolitical Radar Q4 2024 - click here.
Politico: NATO’s Jens Stoltenberg will be new Munich Security Conference chief
Zelenskyy accuses Brazil of being pro-Russia, slams peace proposal: Politico reports Ukrainian president says Brasília-Beijing initiative shows “lack of respect” toward Kyiv’s position.
Radek Sikorski, Poland’s foreign minister, has said that Ukraine’s capacity to endure war with Russia is ‘not infinite.’
3 Red Cross workers killed in Ukraine by shelling: NYT reports the aid workers lost their lives as they were preparing to distribute heating supplies in preparation for winter in the region of Donetsk.
Russian forces are stepping up attacks on strategic city, Ukraine says: NYT reports bombardments are increasing in and around Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine, with water supplies now cut, while Russian troops simultaneously press a new counterattack in the Kursk region.
Putin: Long-range missile approval would put NATO at war with Russia: The Times reports the Russian president gives a stark warning as President Biden considers letting Ukraine use British Storm Shadows to strike his country.
Unilever’s dealing with Russia is ‘dancing with the devil’: The Times reports consumer goods company lambasted over its continued involvement in the country two and a half years after it invaded Ukraine.
Senior Israeli military intelligence official resigns over Oct. 7 Hamas attack: WSJ reports Yossi Sariel is second high-profile military officer to quit over failure to warn country.
Netanyahu’s other war: Conflict in Gaza hasn’t put an end to Israel’s constitutional crisis. Gershom Gorenberg
How to finish Japan’s business revolution: Tokyo-listed companies have become more friendly to shareholders, but the job is only half-done. Economist
A Japanese flag finally returns home, 80 years after World War II: WP reports: “I started to realize a while back that maybe it wasn’t the best home decor,” said Scott Stein, who donated the flag he inherited from his grandfather.
China poses policy challenge to Japan leadership hopefuls: Nikkei reports LDP candidate proposals include 'Asian NATO' and top-level diplomacy.
German warships set to sail through Taiwan Strait: sources: Nikkei reports Beijing says move would be a 'provocation' while analysts warn of confrontation.
China can avoid Japan’s lost decades if it follows Korea’s path: To build an innovation economy, policymakers in Beijing are emulating their peers in Seoul. Bloomberg
China warns carmakers of risks in building plants overseas, sources say: Reuters reports China's commerce ministry has warned the country's carmakers of the risks of making auto-related investments overseas at a recent meeting, said two people briefed about the matter, as they seek global expansion to counter slowing growth in their home market.
China strategy largely absent from Harris, Trump campaigns: Nikkei reports the US presidential debate referenced China 13 times, but mostly on tariffs.
Chinese cargo cranes at US ports pose espionage risk, probe finds: WSJ reports Chinese manufacturer ZPMC has pressured American ports for remote access to its machines, a congressional report says.
House panels finds US ports are ‘dangerously’ reliant on Chinese tech: Politico reports the report adds pressure on US ports to work with alternative crane manufacturers, if they can find them.
The making of a Chinese spy: How Beijing turned dissident who fled to US: Tang Yuanjun was once a leader in the China Democracy Party, but then his mother and his brother back home fell ill. Now he faces spying charges in the US. The Times
US Navy Seal unit that killed Osama bin Laden trains for China invasion of Taiwan: Elite commando team makes plans to help island nation in event Beijing launches war. FT
Reuters: Saudi crude oil supply to China set to rise to 46 mln bbls in Oct, sources say
United Arab Emirates fund in talks to invest in OpenAI: WSJ reports the ChatGPT creator has told potential backers its annualized revenue recently reached $4 billion.
Iraq touts deal with US to withdraw most troops by 2026: WSJ reports an official said the tentative plan would leave a small American force in northern Iraq’s Kurdistan region to guard against Iranian-backed militias.
Iran turns to Hells Angels and other criminal gangs to target critics: Iran has cultivated ties with criminal networks in the West to carry out a recent wave of violent plots in the United States and Europe. WP
The European Central Bank lowered interest rates for the second time this year, with a cut of a quarter of a percentage point, to 3.5%.
Labour ban on TV junk food ads before 9pm to take effect in 2025: The Times reports online adverts promoting foods high in fat, salt and sugar will be banned at all times.
Spain has urged the European Union to “reconsider” tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, joining German opposition to the levies.
Canada to consider additional surtaxes on China imports: WSJ reports Canada is seeking input from households, provincial governments, unions, and businesses on such additional surtaxes.
The US reportedly wants to create two permanent seats on the UN Security Council for African states, and one for developing small island states.
United States vacks Africa’s UN Security Council bid, with a catch: NYT reports the announcement provides U.S. support to permanent council seats for African nations, though not new veto powers. But the path to adding members requires far more than White House approval.
*** US Politics + Elections ***
America’s election is mired in conflict: Donald Trump’s conspiracy machine is already gearing up for election night. Economist
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump in the presidential race among registered voters, 47% to 42%, increasing her advantage after a debate against the former president that voters largely think she won.
NYT: $47 million flowed into Harris campaign in 24 hours after debate
Congressional Republicans try to hide from Trump’s debate performance: WP reports Republicans faced their own presidential nominee’s performance without the same clear-eyed analysis Democrats voiced after President Joe Biden’s debate.
The Hill: Trump says he won’t do another debate with Harris
Reuters: US gasoline prices set to fall under $3/gallon as election nears
Bloomberg: Housing’s worst crisis in decades reverberates through 2024 race
+ Harris proposes 3 million units to ease housing shortage
+ Trump plans to open up federal lands for housing development
Harris seeks to build on debate momentum with push to flip North Carolina: NBC News reports the Democratic presidential nominee will hold two rallies in the state Thursday, followed by a pair of events in Pennsylvania on Friday.
In fight for Congress, Democrats run as ‘team normal,’ casting GOP as ‘weird’: In competitive districts, Democratic congressional candidates have pivoted from portraying Republicans as dangerous and extreme to ridiculing them as too odd to support. NYT
MT-SEN: The Cook Political Report today moved the Montana Senate race between incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D) and challenger Tim Sheehy (R) from “Toss Up” to “Lean Republican.”
Republicans break with Trump, back Fed ahead of rate cut: Politico reports the former president said lowering borrowing costs is “something that they know they shouldn’t be doing” before November’s elections. GOP lawmakers disagree.
Mr ChatGPT and other AI power players are going to the White House to discuss AI’s massive thirst for energy CNN
America has an innovation and incumbency problem: Politicians should be taking questions of R&D and corporate power much more seriously. Gillian Tett
The AI bill driving a wedge through Silicon Valley: California’s Gavin Newsom has until September 30 to decide whether to sign legislation that will reach far beyond the state. FT
Edward Caban has resigned as commissioner of the NYPD, Mayor Eric Adams announced at a press briefing Thursday.
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
More corporate communication teams are now reporting directly to the CEO, according to a new report from media monitoring platform, Memo.
Nikkei: Moderna to launch skin cancer vaccine as soon as 2025: CEO
Christie’s buys classic car auction house Gooding & Co: FT reports the London-based company looks to expand luxury offerings as art market weakens.
Flowcarbon, a climate company co-founded by Adam Neumann, is reportedly refunding investors after failing to bring its proposed crypto token to market.
SpaceX astronauts conduct spacewalk, putting new spacesuits to test: WSJ reports private-citizen astronauts traveling with SpaceX completed the first commercial spacewalk, pushing new boundaries for the Elon Musk-led company.
Reuters: Mastercard to buy threat intelligence company Recorded Future for $2.65 bln
The $200bn man: Larry Ellison’s wealth rebounds as Oracle joins AI boom: Database software maker has undergone an unlikely Wall Street renaissance. Richard Waters
Palantir is joining the S&P 500.
Mistral released its first multimodal model.
OpenAI releases new AI model that answers more complex questions: Bloomberg reports the new model, known internally as Strawberry, can handle complicated math and coding problems.
OpenAI unveils new ChatGPT that can reason through math and science: NYT reports driven by new technology called OpenAI o1, the chatbot can test various strategies and try to identify mistakes as it tackles complex tasks.
Sarah O'Brien has departed Rivian to join Jony Ive's LoveFrom, which is reportedly in talks with OpenAI to create consumer products.
Meta says it scraped all Australian adult users' public photos and posts on Facebook to train its AI, without an option to opt out.
Chats with AI bots found to damp conspiracy theory beliefs: Research runs counter to idea that it is nigh impossible to change some minds over popular but unevidenced ideas. FT
Bloomberg: Microsoft, cyber firms pursue changes after CrowdStrike outage
Bloomberg: Two Chinese AI chipmakers seek IPOs to mount challenge to Nvidia
+ Enflame, Biren are prepping to float shares as soon as in 2024
+ Investors are bidding up shares in AI chipmakers like Nvidia
*** Culture ***
Why many French have come to like “Emily in Paris”: Even if they may not want to admit it. Economist
They said her music was too exotic. Now she’s a classical star. Gabriela Ortiz, Carnegie Hall’s composer in residence this season, has spent her career channeling the sounds and sensibilities of Latin America. NYT
*** Sport ***
A revived Pac-12 to add four Mountain West schools, including Boise State: WP reports Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State are leaving the Mountain West to join Oregon State and Washington State in the Pac-12 in 2026-27.
The Athletic: Pac-12 adding Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, Colorado State from Mountain West
PSG refuse League order to pay Mbappé disputed €55 million: Le Monde reports that Paris Saint-Germain announced that it would not pay the €55 million in unpaid dues to Kylian Mbappé, which the French league ordered it to pay the player.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Daily | September 11
Caracal Daily | September 11
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Wednesday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
Ukrainian drones bring distant war to Moscow suburb: Russian authorities have long pushed message that the full-scale invasion of Ukraine is far away from everyday life. FT
Wave of drone attacks hits targets near Moscow: WSJ reports strikes on Russian territory come as the US says it will sanction Iran over ballistic missile deliveries to Moscow.
US could allow Ukraine to fire missiles into Russia ‘within weeks’: The Times reports that British sources say that the American position on use of long-range Storm Shadow missiles is shifting.
Ukraine to press top US and UK officials on striking deeper inside Russia: Politico reports a top GOP lawmaker says the US is ready to loosen restrictions. The Biden administration says no decision has been made.
Politico: US accuses China of giving ‘very substantial’ help to Russia’s war machine
+ In exchange, China is getting top secret Russian military technology.
US says Russia helping China develop military technologies: FT reports Washington concerned by Moscow’s sharing of knowhow on submarines, aeronautics and missiles.
China to make military training mandatory at universities: Nikkei reports that marching, marksmanship among subjects students will take.
US curbs on China tech investments in final push as election looms: Nikkei reports new administration could throw wrench in rules that focus on chips and AI.
In China, retiring as early as 50 has been the norm. That is about to change. WSJ reports Beijing finally tackles a 1950s policy that lets women retire in their 50s and men at 60 amid economic gloom and a rapidly aging population.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, dipped below $70 a barrel for the first time since December 2021 amid slowing Chinese imports and lowered forecasts by OPEC, a cartel of oil exporters.
India edges warily toward accepting more Chinese investment: Despite security concerns, FDI seen as key to Modi's manufacturing drive. Nikkei
Nippon Steel flies to Washington for last-gasp push to save US Steel deal: FT reports the Biden administration opposes Japanese company’s proposed $15bn takeover, which has become an election issue.
The harmony between Labour and Britain’s trade unions: They agree on the labour market above all. Economist
Boost for Badenoch as Mel Stride knocked out of Tory leadership race: The Times reports Kemi Badenoch claims she has ‘star power’ as she narrows Robert Jenrick’s lead with just four candidates remaining in the contest.
The King won’t be using the sensitive term ‘walkabout’ Down Under: The Times reports the royal couple still plan to meet and greet well-wishers but will no longer use the word due to cultural sensitivities.
Germany’s move to curb migration ripples across EU: The decision to introduce emergency border checks has the backing of almost three quarters of voters, after a period in which more than two million asylum seekers were admitted. The Times
Italian ex-minister accused of giving mistress secrets of G7 summit: Gennaro Sangiuliano is also said to have used ministry cash to put the woman up at hotels and a ministry car to take her to a Coldplay concert. The Times
France's politicians all say they want to 'break with the past.' But do they really? At a time when French political mistrust is at its highest and everyone is declaring a break with the past, continuity is what is prevailing. The paradox reflects the extreme confusion on the political scene. Françoise Fressoz
How Sudan’s devastating civil war became a global battleground: With 150,000 dead and millions displaced, Russia, Iran and the UAE are jockeying for influence. FT
Bloomberg: Israel offers Hamas leader safe exit from Gaza in bid to end war
*** US Politics + Elections ***
The billionaire backers: The richest Americans have so far given more to Trump than to Harris in the 2024 presidential election campaign. Bloomberg
WSJ: Trump and Harris trade barbs in fiery debate
WP: Harris forces Trump to defend record during contentious debate
NYT: Fierce exchanges over country’s future dominate debate
FT: Kamala Harris and Donald Trump clash over economy and abortion
Bloomberg: Harris, Trump teams say they want another debate
BBC: Trump and Harris clash on key issues in fiery presidential debate
AP: Harris presses forceful case in debate with Trump
+ @JuliaManch: NEWS: Harris campaign is calling for a second debate
Taylor Swift has endorsed Kamala Harris for President.
JD Vance escalates xenophobic rhetoric in appeal to Republican base: FT reports Donald Trump’s running mate recycles conspiracy theories about Haitians and pets in Ohio.
White House denounces 'dangerous' false claims about Haitian immigrants spread by JD Vance: NBC News reports Vance said Tuesday that people in Springfield had contacted his office about their neighbors’ pets and that he wouldn’t be dissuaded by debunkings in the news media.
Elon Musk’s misleading election claims reach millions and alarm election officials: WP reports the X billionaire’s false posts about noncitizen voting spur officials to fact-check him, lead to requests to purge voter rolls, and add to worries about threats.
Donald Trump's call to mandate free IVF coverage baffles Republicans in Congress: NBC News reports Trump’s plan drew a mix of confusion, skepticism and opposition from his GOP allies on Capitol Hill. It even surprised his own advisers, a source said.
Johnson’s spending plan falters, facing resistance from both parties: NYT reports Speaker Mike Johnson’s first effort to avert a government shutdown ran into a buzz saw of opposition from both far-right and mainstream Republicans.
The Hill: Trump: GOP shouldn’t fund government without ‘assurances on Election Security’
Trump calls for government shutdown if voting laws aren’t changed: WSJ reports House Speaker Mike Johnson’s measure designed to pressure Democrats over voter IDs faces GOP defections.
Axios: Trump backs Mike Johnson into a corner on shutdown
Politico: Vance would have asked for new electors instead of certifying 2020 election results
+ Trump’s current running mate said Pence “could have done more.”
Firm run by brother of top NYC officials is focus of bribery inquiry: NYT reports Terence Banks opened a consulting firm and soon found work with companies that do business with the city agencies overseen by his older brothers.
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
Starbucks’s new CEO targets hectic stores, overwhelming menus: WSJ reports Brian Niccol says the chain must improve filling orders on time and make its cafes more welcoming.
US regulator signals doubts about proposed Circle K and 7-Eleven deal: FT reports the merger of convenience store and petrol station chains would create one of the largest retail groups in America.
Have we finally reached ‘Peak Aldi’? Despite continued store openings, the discount chain’s focus seems to be shifting to profitability. FT
Bobbi Brown is en route to her second billion-dollar company: Jones Road is another business miracle (balm) in the making. FT
The rise and fall of a green-energy superstar: Enviva cashed in on a boom in wood pellets, then a disastrous trade led to bankruptcy; questions about environmental claims. WSJ
The college dropout who invested billions to cozy up with Elon Musk: Venture capitalist John Hering bet his career, time and money on Musk enterprises, seeking a favored seat beside the world’s richest man. WSJ
WP: Apple, Google must pay billions in back taxes and fines, EU court rules
Apple loses landmark tax case with the EU: The Times reports that the European Court of Justice finds that Ireland granted Apple €13 billion in unlawful state aid.
Apple must pay €13bn in back taxes, top EU court rules: FT reports the European Court of Justice confirms Ireland provided ‘unlawful aid’ via tax deal and overturns a lower court decision.
Who’s paying for Apple Intelligence in new iPhones? Probably you. WP
Apple’s strategy to stay on top: A large part of the company’s revenue now comes from digital services. That has radically reshaped the company’s culture — and its appetite for risk. Bloomberg
China’s Huawei shows the world its $2,800 ‘trifold’ phone: NYT reports the latest announcement from Apple’s China rival came just hours after the unveiling of iPhone 16.
Not everyone needs to have an opinion on AI: Too many organisations feel compelled to speak out on matters outside their control. Stephen Bush
Bloomberg: Amazon to invest £8 billion in UK, continuing AWS expansion
+ Move follows similar investments announced in Spain, Germany
+ Chancellor Reeves says decision is ‘start of economic revival’
Bloomberg: TSMC’s August revenue climbs 33% as AI chip demand holds up
+ Growth is robust though down slightly from July’s pace
+ Investors have been concerned about the pace of AI spending
VW ends three-decade job security pact in Germany: FT reports the trade union responds by threatening strike action at Europe’s largest carmaker.
Bloomberg: BMW brake recall and VW job threat deepen German industry crisis
+ Luxury car-maker finds faulty brakes in 1.5 million vehicles
+ VW confirms plan to end three decades of German job guarantees
Polaris Dawn astronauts launch on ambitious private mission: NYT reports the mission is taking people farther from Earth than anyone has traveled since the end of NASA’s Apollo moon missions.
*** Culture ***
Ralph Fiennes ushers in a new pope to open Toronto International Film Festival: Also showing: Mike Leigh’s latest family drama and stirring 1950s romance ‘On Swift Horses.’ FT
‘Billionaire Island’: ‘Succession’ meets seafood on Netflix: A series follows the cutthroat corporate intrigue surrounding a Norwegian family’s salmon business. WSJ
France's first lady Brigitte Macron makes cameo in new 'Emily in Paris' episode: Le Monde reports the idea of the cameo emerged after the series' creator Darren Star and the show's star Lily Collins met Emmanuel Macron's wife at the Elysée Palace in December 2022, Elle magazine revealed. The second half of the fourth season is being released Thursday on Netflix.
*** Sport ***
Mauricio Pochettino hired as US men’s national soccer team coach: WP reports known for nurturing young players and deploying proactive tactics, Pochettino will take over a US team that has less than two years to prepare for the World Cup.
ESPN has a plan to survive cable’s demise. It won’t be easy. As millions flee cable, ESPN admits, “We have to be everywhere.” But the pivot to streaming comes with financial challenges. WP
Women's soccer wants to be more like the NFL: National Women’s Soccer League Commissioner Jessica Berman is presiding over a pivotal moment for women’s soccer. Can she help turn astronomical growth into a sustained business? Bloomberg
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal