Caracal Daily | September 17
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Tuesday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
China, America, and a global struggle for power and influence: The whole world risks losing from the rivalry between Washington and Beijing. Gideon Rachman
America needs a better strategy on semiconductors: Export controls are necessary, but they are not a complete competitive strategy. Meghan Harris
Reuters: Biden to host Quad summit September 21 in Delaware
+ "The Quad Leaders Summit will focus on bolstering the strategic convergence among our countries, advancing our shared vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific region, and delivering concrete benefits for partners in the Indo-Pacific in key areas," White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre said in a statement.
+ The Quad is the United States, Japan, India, and Australia.
German Navy says it exercised right to pass through Taiwan Strait: Nikkei reports two naval ships stop at Manila as nations bolster defense cooperation.
CNN: Washington and Seoul discussing new deal on cost sharing for US troops in South Korea ahead of a potential Trump election victory
Beijing releases long-jailed US citizen: Politico reports California resident David Lin is free after spending 18 years in prison.
China struggles to build new companies: A new Financial Times report that cites data showing a 99% decline in businesses started in China from 2018 to 2023 sheds light on its entrepreneurial struggles. One executive in Beijing told the publication that "the whole industry has just died before our eyes."
Singapore to 'mop up' finance business leaving Hong Kong: report: EIU says Japan and India also to benefit amid Chinese markets' challenges. Nikkei
The Houthis hit Israel again: The missile threat from Iran’s proxy is growing, and imagine what it will be when Tehran gets a nuclear weapon. WSJ - Editorial
The crude system of coded messages keeping Hamas’s leader alive: WSJ reports Yahya Sinwar’s use of low-tech communications has vexed Israel’s efforts to kill him.
‘Sprinkled with our blood’: Why so many Ukrainians resist land for peace: Any “land for peace” deal would likely seal the fate of Donbas, which has been mired by conflict and separatism stoked by Moscow since the war there began a decade ago. WP
Russia ramps up air assault on Ukrainian cities: NYT reports an attack on Kyiv was the eighth on the Ukrainian capital in about two weeks, officials said, adding that most Russian drones had been intercepted.
France's ambiguous stance on deep strikes in Russia: Le Monde reports Ukrainians want to disrupt Russian logistics at the rear of the front line. France remains in the background of these discussions against a backdrop of political turbulence in Paris.
AFP: Britain and Italy agree to deepen security cooperation, says UK's Starmer
Fortune: Greece spends €1 billion a year on pro-child policies as dwindling birth rates create new headaches for the country
Why Europe is embracing the new American growth model: Following the trail of the US will require more government intervention in industrial and trade policy. WSJ
The calamitous rape crisis unfolding in Congo’s war: WSJ reports around 80% of women in camps for the displaced have been raped in brutal attacks, as international attention wanes. ‘If the war ends, I won’t have to be raped anymore.’
Brazil wants to be a climate champion and an oil giant. Can it be both? Lula has staked his international reputation on the environment, but he must also find the money to alleviate poverty at home. FT
Argentina’s Javier Milei promises to eliminate budget deficit in 2025: FT reports the libertarian president insists country must learn to live within its means.
Fed enters tricky terrain: Rate cuts in a decent economy: WSJ reports lower rates should filter through to credit cards, mortgages and savings. The question is how, exactly.
Why Biden’s multibillion-dollar plan to build America’s next tech powerhouses is getting starved: The national, bipartisan Tech Hubs program could have been a campaign winner. Instead, it’s underfunded and barely present on the political stage — and anxious awardees are “holding their breath” for November. Politico
‘Buy America’ feud risks 200 mile-an-hour rail from Vegas to LA Bloomberg
+ Alstom lawsuit may complicate Brightline West’s 2028 timeline
+ Siemens chose NY site for factory to build high-speed trains
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Another attempt to kill Trump raises fears of political violence: The Economist reports Republicans and Democrats must again try to avoid politicizing a failed assassination.
+ President Joe Biden said America’s Secret Service will be given “every resource” to protect Donald Trump after an apparent second assassination attempt.
Trump seeks to rally support after possible second assassination attempt: WP reports an email to campaign staff urged vigilance about security as the golf course episode raised new concerns.
'From this side of the Atlantic, Trump can seem like an anomaly, but he has taken the measure of a profound American anxiety': Le Monde's former correspondent in Washington, Gilles Paris, answered readers' questions after an apparent second assassination attempt targeted Trump on Sunday. Le Monde
Trump, GOP fuel conspiracy theories: Eating pets, a rigged debate, and QAnon: WP reports led by their presidential nominee, Republicans have increasingly embraced false tales and groundless claims once relegated to the political fringes. Some in the party are worried.
Five days in Ohio: False immigrant rumors threaten to unravel an American town on the upswing: Local residents say the town’s economic upswing has come with growing pains, and its comeback story has been overshadowed by lies about its Haitian population. NBC News
The 5 most important economic questions CEOs still have for Harris and Trump Fortune
Majority of voters like Trump’s plan for tariffs: Donald Trump’s campaign vow to increase tariffs on imported goods, particularly from China, has the support of a narrow majority of US voters, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows.
CBS News: Trump plans to announce the World Liberty Financial crypto exchange
Donald Trump’s unlikely weed wager: Politico reports the former president’s pro-cannabis policies could bolster his efforts to gain support with key Democratic constituencies.
Elon Musk’s pro-Trump super PAC ramps up swing state operations: WP reports America PAC has spent more than $30 million since mid-August, including on mailers targeting voters in North Carolina.
Elon Musk writes, then deletes, a post musing about threats to Biden and Harris: NYT reports his remark, just hours after what authorities said was a second assassination attempt on Donald J. Trump, immediately drew outrage.
Kamala Harris’ old condo is now San Francisco’s hottest Airbnb.
Big energy issue in Pennsylvania is low natural gas prices. Not fracking. NYT reports energy businesses and farmers in western Pennsylvania are struggling because of prices, an issue that has not figured prominently in the campaigns of Donald J. Trump and Kamala Harris.
Bloomberg: NYC mayor’s top allies are quitting as probes, pressures mount
+ Chief counsel to mayor’s office resigned on Saturday night
+ Mayor’s approval ratings mired at lows before reelection bid
The widening crisis surrounding New York Mayor Eric Adams: WSJ reports City Hall’s chief counsel stepped down Saturday, as probes expand in America’s biggest city, with four agencies now involved.
TikTok launches fight for its life in court: Politico reports with the clock ticking on a potential ban, the ultra-popular app is politically more important than ever.
Bloomberg: TikTok fights US ‘sale-or-ban’ law in key appeals court faceoff
+ Video-sharing app faces ban over China ties unless it is sold
+ Owner ByteDance had pledged to take fight to Supreme Court
TikTok’s US future hangs in the balance in court: WSJ reports appeals court to weigh law that could shut down Chinese-backed app used by half of Americans.
WP: TikTok fights ban in court as Harris and Trump campaigns embrace the app
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
15 AI trends of 2024 Mashaid Ahmed
9 things you need to know about OpenAI’s powerful new AI model o1 Fortune
The new followup to ChatGPT is scarily good at deception: The safety paradox at the heart of OpenAI’s “Strawberry” model. Vox
Bloomberg: Google Pixel 9 Pro, Watch 3 offer unrevolutionary AI
AI wearable promises to help you remember everything: But is your privacy safe? Fox News
Regulating AI is easier than you think Paul Scharre
AI boom is driving a surprise resurgence of US gas-fired power: New gas plants just keep on coming, defying expectations that their rapid growth was nearing an end. Bloomberg
$84bn: Intel’s current market value, down from over $210bn in January.
Why Washington and Big Oil are investing billions in ammonia: Capturing carbon makes the chemical cleaner, boosting its popularity for fertilizer and fuel. WSJ
Fortune: So long London? Goldman Sachs is turning to Birmingham and Warsaw for talent in lower-cost European cities
Reuters: Commerzbank snubs overtures for UniCredit takeover
Inside the routine of Red Lobster’s 35-year-old CEO from when he ran PF Chang’s Fortune
To catch up in EVs, Detroit needs to invite China in: There’s lots Ford and GM could learn from the likes of BYD about building affordable electric cars. Bloomberg
*** Culture ***
Robert Caro reflects on ‘The Power Broker’ and its legacy at 50: Caro’s book on Robert Moses, a city planner who reshaped New York, is also a reflection on “the dangers of unchecked power,” and remains more resonant and relevant than ever. NYT
Is streetwear finally over? Off-White, a streetwear beacon, came to New York with a new designer. Can it ever regain its influence? WP
‘Shōgun’ and ‘The Bear’ dominate the Emmys: WSJ reports the 17th-century Japanese drama and the chaotic kitchen series broke awards records, but in a surprise, ‘Hacks’ won best comedy.
*** Sport ***
The surprise team marching all over the NFL: The New Orleans Saints are off to a historic start after destroying the Dallas Cowboys in a week highlighted by upsets and an improbable deep-passing barrage. WSJ
How Ferrari became genuine rival to McLaren (just in time for Hamilton): Italian team may decide where drivers title ends up this season, and are very much in contention for constructors’ championship themselves, which bodes well with British driver joining in 2025. The Times
Manchester City's 'trial of the century' opens in England: The Mancunian club is facing 115 charges before a Premier League committee for breaching UEFA's financial fair play rules between 2009 and 2018. Le Monde
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Daily | September 16
Caracal Daily | September 16
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Monday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
The kids who didn’t know their parents were Russian spies WSJ
‘They have stolen our business’: When you leave Russia, Putin sets the terms: Western companies that exited Russia immediately after the invasion of Ukraine suffered big losses. Two years later, it’s clear that was as good as it got. An excerpt from the new book Punishing Putin. Bloomberg
Five ex-defence secretaries tell PM: let Ukraine fire our missiles: The Times reports after talks in Washington reached a stalemate, Sir Keir Starmer is urged to go it alone.
Biden administration, behind declared solidarity with Ukraine, harbors hesitations: Le Monde reports the US has been reluctant to allow Kyiv to strike Russia with the long-range missiles its allies have supplied, fearing it might lead to escalation with Moscow.
America keeps Ukraine fighting with its hands tied: Russian missiles blast its cities, but it still cannot strike back. Economist
Houthis fire missile from Yemen into central Israel, warn of more strikes: WP reports Israeli forces said the missile Sunday did not cause any direct injuries, but Netanyahu threatens, “we exact a heavy price for any attempt to harm us.”
Why Israel has not yet lost Europe: Europeans are angry about Gaza, but they aren’t voting like it. Economist
A frailer Dalai Lama greets devotees while succession question remains: WSJ reports the Tibetan spiritual leader, back at his home in exile after surgery in the US, has said he would discuss how to choose his successor. But Beijing claims final say.
AUKUS needs more than submarines to make its bold vision a reality: Increased public engagement is key to pact's mission to deter China. Nishank Motwani
Philippines withdraws from disputed reef in South China Sea: FT reports the move to test Beijing’s willingness to de-escalate tensions with Manila.
China’s risky power play in the South China Sea NYT
How China has ‘throttled’ its private sector: Venture capital finance has dried up amid political and economic pressures, prompting a dramatic fall in new company formation. FT
How China’s communists fell in love with privatisation: Even though they are not very good at it. Economist
China resolves to raise retirement age: Le Monde reports the Chinese will have to work between three and five years longer. In a sign of the sensitivity of the subject, the reform will go into effect very gradually.
Ishiba leads Koizumi in Japan leadership race: Nikkei poll: Shigeru Ishiba, former secretary-general of the Liberal Democratic Party, has taken the lead from former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi in the latest Nikkei opinion poll asking who the best choice is to lead the LDP.
Japan eyes automated airport immigration for foreign arrivals: Nikkei reports visitors from visa-exempt countries won't have to be questioned by inspectors.
Nippon Steel finds unlikely ally in Pittsburgh workers: WSJ reports in Pennsylvania’s steel country, locals fight to keep their jobs at US Steel even if it means foreign ownership.
Taliban begins enforcing new draconian laws, and Afghan women despair: WP reports Afghan religious police wield new power to enforce a ban on women raising their voices in public and looking at men other than their husbands or relatives.
In Saudi Arabia’s shiny desert future, the new god is AI: Everything is big in Riyadh, from the 4x4s to the construction sites. Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince, has his sights on global dominance in technology. The Times
Between France and Algeria, an enduring cycle of conflict: Algiers and Paris are in conflict once again, for the third time in three years, highlighting the recurring turbulence in the relationship between the two countries. Le Monde
Labour denies ‘transparency’ issue after clothing donation to Starmer’s wife: FT reports the prime minister broke parliamentary rules by failing initially to declare gift from Waheed Alli.
William wishes Harry a happy birthday for the first time in years: The Times reports amid continuing acrimony between the siblings, sources close to the King say he feels he must be ‘a kind of anchor’ for the royals.
Italy retains allure for rich Europeans fleeing higher taxes: FT reports doubling of flat-tax regime does not dissuade global super-rich from shifting residency to the country.
Mexico to launch ‘impossible’ process to elect 7,000 judges: FT reports voters to choose from vast candidate list following radical overhaul labelled an opportunity for organised crime.
US economy is heading for soft landing, FT survey says: GDP to keep expanding while unemployment will remain relatively low, economists predict.
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Secret Service fired on man with gun near Trump’s Florida golf course: WSJ reports the former President was unharmed and the gunman is now in custody.
WP: Trump safe after gunshots fired in his vicinity at Florida golf course, campaign says
Reuters: Trump safe after multiple shots fired near his Florida golf course
Trump posts disdain for Taylor Swift, Vance defends pet-eating claims: WSJ reports the running mates defended unfounded pet-eating rumors and criticized the pop star who endorsed Harris.
How the false story of a gang ‘takeover’ in Colorado reached Trump: The claim that Aurora, Colo., has been overrun by gun-toting migrants stemmed from the city’s fight with a landlord. Now it is central to one of former President Donald J. Trump’s anti-immigrant campaign promises. NYT
Donald Trump re-election bid being derailed by far-right influencers, allies fear: FT reports Republicans criticise emergence of 9/11 conspiracy theorist Laura Loomer in ex-president’s circle.
2024 US election: Donald Trump's strange strategy of ignoring moderates: The Republican candidate, more used to a golf cart than a shopping cart, didn't exploit economic issues in the televised debate against Kamala Harris, who adopted a calm, centrist line, designed to appeal to undecided voters neglected by her opponent. Piotr Smolar
The never-Trump movement has leaders. What about followers? For some dissident Republicans, backing Kamala Harris seems a step too far. Economist
US oil boom turns Kamala Harris into an unlikely fracking supporter: Bloomberg reports the candidate touts the benefits of energy independence even as she pledges to continue Biden’s decarbonization push.
Should Kamala Harris be wearing American designers? Decades after Jackie Kennedy was lambasted for wearing French brands, the Democratic presidential candidate goes full Parisian. WSJ
Senate Republican candidates are trailing Donald Trump: WP reports the GOP appears on track to flip the Senate red, but many candidates are struggling in battleground states.
Chief Counsel to Eric Adams resigns amid federal investigations: NYT reports Lisa Zornberg, the chief counsel to Mayor Eric Adams of New York, suddenly stepped down on Saturday as federal investigations into Mr. Adams’s administration expand.
In the Los Angeles area, authorities rush to fight Bridge Fire: 'This fire is really bad': Le Monde reports in just a few days, three major wildfires broke out within a radius of less than 100 kilometers around the metropolitan area, fanned by a drought that is taking its toll on abundant vegetation.
Most Americans don’t trust AI-powered election information: AP-NORC/USAFacts survey: A majority of Americans who do not trust artificial intelligence-powered chatbots or search results to give them accurate answers, according to a survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research and USAFacts. About two-thirds of US adults say they are not very or not at all confident that these tools provide reliable and factual information, the poll shows. AP
Google, Apple and the antitrust tipping point: Major competition victories suggest Big Tech is reaching a reckoning. Rana Foroohar
What US and EU crackdowns on Big Tech mean for Apple, Google, X Bloomberg
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
Bloomberg: Cloud-computing firm CoreWeave in talks for share sale at $23 billion valuation
Bloomberg: AI pioneer Fei-Fei Li raises $230 million for new startup World Labs
Apple has a hot new product. It’s a hearing aid. The world’s most valuable company just turned its top-selling headphones into low-cost hearing aids—and it’s quietly a huge moment. Ben Cohen
Bloomberg: Apple’s new hearing aid and health upgrades saved iPhone 16 launch
Ives says there can't be an Apple super cycle without China Bloomberg
Axel Springer and KKR near deal on €13.5bn break-up: FT reports the agreement to be discussed next week could cement Mathias Döpfner’s control over media outlets Politico and Bild.
Tabloids are about more than trashy headlines: Love them or hate them, their history and future are long. Economist
What Taylor Swift and Oasis can teach us about the economy: The music industry’s shift from product to performance foreshadows a widespread move towards intangible assets. Andy Haldane
The man who made Nike uncool: Instead of transforming the sneaker giant into a high-tech powerhouse, John Donahoe pissed off partners and disappointed fans. Bloomberg
The suave Italian banker who wants to be the Jamie Dimon of Europe: Andrea Orcel has teed up UniCredit for a potential takeover of rival Commerzbank. He wants to build something Europe lacks—a banking champion. WSJ
What scared Ford’s CEO in China: Jim Farley is changing strategy to combat what he calls an “existential threat” from China’s electric carmakers. WSJ
Chinese EVs still cheaper than Teslas in US after tariff hike: Nikkei reports the supply chain advantages help BYD and others compete on price.
Why schools are ripping up playgrounds across the US: Projects to plant trees, build shade structures and reduce the amount of pavement around schools have become high-priority as schoolyards become dangerously hot. WP
Broken blades, angry fishermen and rising costs slow offshore wind: Accidents involving blades made by GE Vernova have delayed projects off the coasts of Massachusetts and England and could imperil climate goals. NYT
Japan's ispace prepares for second private moon landing attempt: Nikkei reports the space startup aims to become 1st Asian firm to achieve feat.
SpaceX’s Polaris Dawn returned to Earth safely after five days in orbit, splashing down off the coast of Florida.
*** Culture ***
'The Life of Chuck' wins top prize at Toronto film fest: AFP reports "The Life of Chuck" -- the latest adaptation of horror master Stephen King's work, starring Tom Hiddleston -- won the coveted top prize Sunday at the Toronto International Film Festival.
The pampered life of a fashion VIC: When you’re a “very important client,” luxury brands will do anything to keep you happy (and spending). NY Mag
How Joe Rogan remade Austin: The podcaster and comedian has turned the city into a haven for manosphere influencers, just-asking-questions tech bros, and other “free thinkers” who happen to all think alike. Helen Lewis
*** Sport ***
UEFA wants foreign policy clause scrapped in football regulator bill: Government under pressure to remove requirement for regulator to consider foreign policy when deciding on club owners, as sources insist England will not face Euros ban. The Times
Is this squash’s moment? The BBC’s Ros Atkins on why he loves it: The sport is coming to the Olympics. About time too, says the BBC News analysis editor, who has been whacking little balls about for 40 years. The Times
United States beats Europe to win first Solheim Cup since 2017: AFP reports second-ranked Lilia Vu captured the deciding half-point and the United States defeated Europe 15.5-12.5 on Sunday to win the Solheim Cup for the first time since 2017.
College football players learn an ugly truth about getting paid: Yes, the stars are making millions. Everyone else is vulnerable to boosters making promises they can’t or won’t keep. Bloomberg
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal