Caracal Daily | September 30
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Monday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
‘Hizbollah is voiceless’: Lebanon’s most powerful force reels from loss of leader: Israel’s assassination of Hassan Nasrallah shakes militant group and raises fears of civil strife in a fragile nation. FT
How Israeli spies penetrated Hizbollah: Depth and quality of intelligence helped IDF turn the tide against Lebanese militant group. FT
WP: Israel strikes central Beirut for first time since escalating Lebanon attacks
The Times: Israeli special forces cross Lebanese border
Israel launches raids into Lebanon ahead of possible ground incursion: WSJ reports the small, targeted raids are aimed at gathering intelligence ahead of a possible broader ground incursion that could come as soon as this week.
Invading Lebanon won’t bring the victory Israel needs: The death of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah creates opportunities for more war or for transformation. Netanyahu should choose the latter. Marc Champion
What this Israel-Hezbollah-Hamas-Iran conflict is really about Thomas L. Friedman
Israel dreams of a new order in the Middle East: But escalating the conflict further is more likely to lead to regional chaos. Gideon Rachman
US continues to back Israeli military operations, even when blindsided: Le Monde reports the American administration, whose action is limited, is strengthening its presence in the eastern Mediterranean. After the elimination of the Hezbollah leader, its main concern is Iran and the issue of nuclear weapons.
Zelensky visited US to seek war boost. His most-important ally shrugged. Ukrainian troops are slowly losing ground, and officials say more support is needed to hold back Russia back. WSJ
In Moscow, metro booths seek to attract new volunteers for the Ukrainian front: In the past month, new informational booths have popped up between the escalators and the turnstiles. Passengers are being offered the equivalent of €50,000 to join the army, an incentive that has met with limited success. Le Monde
This $2.4 billion lithium mine is caught between Russia and the West: US suspects Rio Tinto’s project in Serbia has been hit by a Russian disinformation campaign. WSJ
Austrian election: Hard right on course for victory: The Times reports Herbert Kickl, leader of the Freedom Party, wants to restore ties with Russia and ‘remigrate’ large numbers of people coming into the country.
Austria's far right achieves highest election result since 1945: Le Monde reports with 28.8% of the vote in Sunday's parliamentary elections, Austria's Freedom Party victory has triggered a political earthquake in the country of 9 million inhabitants. But all the other parties still refuse to form a coalition with them.
The uncertain future of the European Green Deal: The European right, along with Italy and Germany, is leading the offensive against two emblematic bills: one against deforestation and the other to ban the sell of internal combustion engine cars after 2035. Le Monde
UK, home of the industrial revolution, shuts its last coal-fired power plant: Britain was a country powered by coal. Now it’s the first G7 nation to quit it. In a matter of hours, the boilers at the Ratcliffe plant will cool to the touch. WP
Today is the day coal dies: On September 30, with the closure of Ratcliffe-on-Soar, Britain becomes the first major developed country to quit coal to generate electricity. This is the story of how we got here — and what the future holds. The Times
Britain is the first major economy to stop using coal. It’s a risky experiment. Ed Conway
Bloomberg: Germany is giving up hope of achieving any growth in 2024
Let's beware of a post-Olympic drift in the use of AI-powered video surveillance: Paris police chief said he was 'very much in favor' of extending the algorithmic video surveillance system used during the Olympic and Paralympic Games. But the system cannot be made permanent without a careful examination. Le Monde - Editorial
A party’s seven-decade dominance raises concerns for Japan’s democracy: The Liberal Democratic Party has ruled Japan for all but four of the past 69 years, leading some to ask whether its parliament is truly representative. WP
Chinese stocks surge 8.5% in best day since 2008: FT reports investors bet that rally which began with Beijing’s stimulus package has further to run.
Bloomberg: FOMO grips China stock buyers on ‘epic’ trading day before break
Defense-tech startups need a new supplier: Anyone but China: A new generation of companies is learning to build high-tech weapons without materials from Beijing. WSJ
How the US lost the solar power race to China: Bloomberg Opinion’s climate columnist visited Michigan, the former heart of the solar industry, and China to learn how good, old-fashioned capitalism won out. David Fickling
A dockworkers walkout could batter the American economy and tie up US trade: WSJ reports the International Longshoremen’s Association, which represents 45,000 dockworkers from Maine to Texas, is pushing for a 77% pay increase.
Dockworkers strike could begin Tuesday, with talks at an impasse: NYT reports members of the International Longshoremen’s Association could walk off the job, halting most shipments at East and Gulf Coast ports and rattling the US economy.
Copper producers issue fresh warnings about price volatility: FT reports the Antofagasta chief says there is a ‘disconnect’ between government policies and growing demand for red metal.
A transformative leader steps down in Mexico. What will his legacy be? President Andrés Manuel López Obrador lifted millions out of poverty while eroding democratic norms, allowing his nationalist political movement to expand its sway. NYT
Mexico’s first female president to take power under mentor’s shadow: Claudia Sheinbaum’s predecessor began a contentious national transformation. Can she chart her own path? FT
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Scores are fleeing North Carolina’s flooded towns after Helene, which killed at least 87 in six states: WSJ reports cellphone and internet signals in the region have been spotty — if working at all — making communication with the outside world a constant struggle.
In North Carolina, remnants of Helene become an ‘unprecedented tragedy’: NYT reports thousands of people struggled to cope without basic necessities as authorities searched for the missing, and the overall death toll from the storm surpassed 90.
Lost lives and an epic crisis in North Carolina: NYT reports scenes of devastation in the western part of the state, where the traces of Hurricane Helene destroyed some communities and stranded others.
‘Completely and entirely erased’: How Helene swallowed one mountain town: WSJ reports scenes of destruction and suffering lay almost everywhere in Swannanoa, NC — cars in tree limbs, mangled homes, mud-choked roads, and people desperate for water and food.
America’s gridlock election: ‘They are fighting for inches’: With just over a month until polling day, the race between Harris and Trump is too close to call. Is there anything that could shift voters’ views? FT
WSJ: Trump amps up rhetoric to keep immigration at center of election
Vance and the ‘New Right’ spark a policy war in Washington: Trump’s pick for vice president is leading an attempted populist GOP makeover. WSJ
Bloomberg: Vance, Walz set to spar in final debate of tight election race
+ Vice presidential hopefuls take the stage Tuesday in New York
+ CBS-hosted debate is last scheduled ahead of the Nov. 5 election
How Vance and Walz will try to win the debate: The two vice presidential hopefuls will clash on stage Tuesday night in New York. WSJ
Vance and Walz face contrasting pressures in much-anticipated debate: For JD Vance, Donald Trump may be his most important viewer. For Tim Walz, the task of introducing himself to voters looms large. WP
Walz v Vance debate: VP candidates prepare for Midwest showdown: The Democrat and Republican vice-presidential candidates will face off in the last televised head-to-head before the November election. The Times
Will the real Midwest please stand up? The vice-presidential debate, pitting Senator JD Vance of Ohio against Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, shines the spotlight on a complicated region. AO Scott
Republicans deploy cash to crack Democrats’ ‘blue wall’ in Senate: WSJ reports the group aligned with Sen. Mitch McConnell to spend $67.5 million on ad reservations in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Americans are more reliant than ever on government aid: An aging population and economic distress raise dependence on federal and state support. Here’s why that matters for the 2024 election. WSJ
Mayor Eric Adams of New York pleaded not guilty to bribery and fraud charges.
California’s Gavin Newsom vetoes controversial AI safety bill: Governor seeks more encompassing rules than the bill opposed by OpenAI, Meta and supported by research scientists. WSJ
California governor vetoes controversial AI bill in a win for Big Tech: Tech executives and investors opposed the measure, which would have required companies to test the most powerful AI systems before release. WP
California Governor vetoes sweeping AI legislation: The bill would have been the first in the nation to place strict guardrails on the new technology, but Gov. Gavin Newsom said the bill was flawed. NYT
California Governor Gavin Newsom vetoes AI safety bill: The legislation makes artificial intelligence companies legally liable for damage caused by their models. Le Monde
California governor vetoes bill to regulate artificial intelligence: Gavin Newsom agrees with leading AI companies that legislation could stifle innovation. FT
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
WSJ: AT&T to sell rest of DirecTV to TPG
DealBook: Dish and DirecTV near a deal to combine (again)
Wealthy Carolina town worries there’s danger lurking under its lawns: For decades, utilities across the nation sold waste coal ash to developers. The EPA now warns it poses a cancer risk. WSJ
OpenAI funding and restructuring plans renew pressure on AI’s top startup: WP reports the ChatGPT maker is seeking a valuation of $150 billion while also exploring a provocative overhaul of its nonprofit structure and dealing with executive departures.
Who’s left at OpenAI? Sam Altman consolidates power after failed coup: Departure of chief technology officer Mira Murati ensures ChatGPT-maker’s chief executive is now surrounded by allies. FT
Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund backs nuclear fuel start-up: FT reports the incubation effort comes as Big Tech looks to atomic energy to meet soaring power demand for AI race.
*** Culture ***
Francis Ford Coppola bet more than $100 million on his legacy. Now what? The director talks about his passion project, ‘Megalopolis,’ including reports of problems on set and how he paid for the film. WSJ
WSJ: Kris Kristofferson, country music icon and Hollywood star, dies at 88
The plan to save Frank Lloyd Wright’s only skyscraper isn’t going as planned: Less than two years ago, the building was thought to have been rescued from financial woes. Now, the new owners have it on the auction block, and some Wright-designed furnishings have already been sold. NYT
*** Sport ***
France's Antoine Griezmann retires from international football: Le Monde reports, with 137 appearances and 44 goals, the Atletico Madrid forward is the third most-capped player and fourth-highest goalscorer in France's history.
The Atheltic: Man United 0 Tottenham 3: What now for Ten Hag?
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Daily | September 27
Caracal Daily | September 27
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Friday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
President Joe Biden announced nearly $8 billion in new military assistance for Ukraine on Thursday and plans to convene a leader-level meeting of key allies to coordinate additional support when he visits Germany next month.
US House speaker demands that Ukraine fire ambassador: NYT reports the public call from Speaker Mike Johnson deals a blow to Kyiv’s efforts to avoid the partisan acrimony of the US presidential campaign.
Donald Trump attacks Kyiv for ‘refusing to make a deal’ to end war: FT reports the former US president insists ‘Ukraine is gone’ as Volodymyr Zelenskyy pushes for more military aid to repel Russia.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy seeks to contain Republican backlash over US visit: FT reports the Trump criticism triggers recriminations in Kyiv over Ukrainian leader’s outreach.
‘Deepfake’ caller poses as Ukrainian official in exchange with key Senator: A figure impersonating Dmytro Kuleba, the former foreign minister of Ukraine, targeted Senator Benjamin L. Cardin, the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, over a Zoom call. NYT
Iran races to allay Hizbollah fears: Tehran’s restraint in the face of increasingly aggressive Israeli operations has unsettled Lebanese militant group. FT
An Israel-Hizbullah war would be a disaster for both: Both must find a way to step back. Economist
French-American initiative calls for 21-day ceasefire in Lebanon: Le Monde reports as Israel continues its bombing campaign against Hezbollah, which has killed over 600 people since Monday, Western diplomats are working to clear the way for a negotiated settlement to the crisis.
WSJ: Israel casts soubt on Hezbollah cease-fire
Netanyahu insists Israel will continue to hit Hizbollah targets: FT reports the prime minister casts doubt on US-led efforts to bring about a ceasefire and prevent war spreading across the region.
As war widens and costs mount, Israel’s economy is in ‘serious danger’: WP reports tens of thousands of Israeli businesses have closed over the last year and reservists are struggling to juggle careers with military service.
How a Chinese billionaire’s Silicon Valley splurge caught the eye of the FBI: Shan Xiangshuang’s $10bn buyout group quietly became a top US tech investor. That has triggered official concern. FT
Reuters: China to issue $284 billion of sovereign debt this year to help revive economy
China lifts markets with promise of more support for economy: FT reports Chinese and European shares buoyed as politburo promises to drive investment.
China ranks first among Russia's business partners: Le Monde reports Chinese companies have made dramatic leaps up Russia's list of major economic partners, particularly carmakers. Yet some Western companies, including France's Auchan and Leroy Merlin, are still major local players.
China’s newest nuclear sub sank, setting back its military modernization: WSJ reports the pierside accident came as Beijing, which hasn’t acknowledged the episode, attempts to project its military power.
Japan has sailed a warship through the Taiwan Strait for the first time. A Chinese official said the military ‘had the situation under control.’
Saudi Arabia ready to abandon $100 crude target to take back market share: FT reports oil price falls as kingdom prepares to raise output from December.
Turkey held its biggest-ever bond sale, raising $3.5bn in funds.
Turkey wants the EU to regulate the döner kebab: Germans’ version would not qualify, and they are steaming. Economist
Europe had its hottest summer on record, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Institute.
The uncertain future of the European Green Deal: Le Monde reports the European right, along with Italy and Germany, is leading the offensive against two emblematic bills: one against deforestation and the other to ban the sell of internal combustion engine cars after 2035.
The European Commission has revealed a list of the first 100-plus signatories to the AI Pact — an initiative focused on getting companies to publish “voluntary pledges” on how they approach and deploy artificial intelligence.
Elon Musk has denied that he is having a fling with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
The Sudanese Armed Forces began a big offensive to recapture territory in and around Khartoum, the country’s capital.
*** US Politics + Elections ***
WP: Hurricane Helene, now a Category 3, could bring ‘catastrophic’ storm surge to Florida
POTUS poll: A new Echelon Insights poll finds Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump in a head-to-head race, 52% to 45%.
Pro-Trump group expands ad buy by $70 million in the race’s final weeks: NYT reports the MAGA Inc. super PAC plans to run ads to make the case that Kamala Harris is soft on crime and to tie her to the Biden administration’s record.
Harris puts government intervention at heart of economic policy: WSJ reports in an appeal to blue-collar workers, the vice president pledges to use tax credits to spur domestic manufacturing.
Harris now has an economic plan. Can it best Trump’s promises? A central question in the final stretch of the election is if Vice President Kamala Harris’s proposals will cohere into an economic argument that can top former President Donald J. Trump’s. NYT
Why Kamala Harris has won me over Stanley McChrystal
With few wins to highlight, House Republicans head home to chase votes: NYT reports the GOP has plenty of dysfunction to point to after nearly two years of controlling the chamber, but not many successes to show voters ahead of the Nov. 5 election.
Reuters: US FTC announces crackdown on deceptive AI claims, schemes
New York City Mayor Adams charged with corruption offenses: WSJ reports Eric Adams filled his campaign war chests with illegal foreign contributions and crisscrossed the globe on the dime of Turkish nationals without disclosing the free perks, prosecutors said.
NYC mayor charged with bribery, wire fraud, seeking campaign funds from a foreign national: WP reports the indictment against Eric Adams reveals a lengthy list of accusations that grew out of what prosecutors called “corrupt relationships” with rich foreigners.
Bloomberg: NYC Mayor was corrupt for years, US claims in scathing case
New York Mayor to be arraigned Friday on bribery and fraud charges: NYT reports the U.S. attorney in Manhattan said Eric Adams took over $100,000 in graft and used his powers to help Turkey. The mayor insisted he was innocent.
Andrew Cuomo is preparing to run for New York City mayor.
Coming up next on CNN: A paywall: NYT reports CNN will begin experimenting in October with a subscription model, a major initiative from its chief executive, Mark Thompson.
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
Is a stealth bomber-shaped plane the future of air travel? Global airlines look to new fuels and radical new designs to offset rising carbon emissions. FT
Bloomberg: Bitcoin climbs past $65,000 ahead of $5.8 billion options expiry
AI’s trillion-dollar opportunity: The market for AI products and services could reach between $780 billion and $990 billion by 2027. Bain
OpenAI boss set for $10bn payday from move to for-profit model: Three executives depart amid reports Sam Altman’s company may ditch founding non-profit principle and hand chief executive a 7 percent stake. The Times
OpenAI pushes ahead with for-profit plans and talks to give Sam Altman a stake: Chief Technology Officer Mira Murati to step down in leadership shake-up. FT
OpenAI is just like the rest of Silicon Valley after all: Sam Altman’s company is shaking off the do-gooder shackles. Dave Lee
Meta releases Llama 3.2—and gives its AI a voice: Meta’s AI assistants can now talk and see the world. The company is also releasing the multimodal Llama 3.2, a free model with visual skills. Wired
Can machines be more ‘truthful’ than humans? A new film based on the life of Brian Eno raises some profound questions about the disruptive effects of AI. John Thornhill
Micron, the largest US maker of computer memory chips, gained the most in nearly 13 years after giving surprisingly strong sales and profit forecasts, helped by demand for artificial intelligence gear.
Vanderbilt University plans New York City expansion: WSJ reports the Nashville-based school will take over the Manhattan campus of an Episcopal seminary in financial distress, as the university tries to attract students by opening new locations.
*** Culture ***
3%: The proportion of books sold in Britain last year that were marketed as “self-help.”
Conveying confidence through clothing: Signs of self-assurance were apparent in outfits on and off the runways at Milan Fashion Week. NYT
Netflix's "Mr. McMahon," a six-part docuseries chronicling the rise and fall of WWE founder Vince McMahon, was released this morning.
Are Americans sounding a tad British to you? You’re spot on. WP
Hoda Kotb is leaving the 'Today' Show.
*** Sport ***
Derrick Rose has announced that after 15 NBA seasons, he is retiring from basketball.
It was the pro sports capital of America. Now it’s been wiped off the map. Oakland was titletown in the 1970s, as the A’s, Raiders, and Warriors delivered championships in five straight years. Now, in the same span of time, all three have abandoned the city they once called home. WSJ
By creating space for herself, Caitlin Clark stands alone: The Indiana Fever star commanded fans’ attention and ultimately brought new eyes to women’s professional basketball. Sally Jenkins
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal