Caracal Daily | September 30

Caracal Daily | September 30

Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.

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Happy Monday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

‘Hizbollah is voiceless’: Lebanon’s most powerful force reels from loss of leader: Israel’s assassination of Hassan Nasrallah shakes militant group and raises fears of civil strife in a fragile nation. FT

How Israeli spies penetrated Hizbollah: Depth and quality of intelligence helped IDF turn the tide against Lebanese militant group. FT

WP: Israel strikes central Beirut for first time since escalating Lebanon attacks

The Times: Israeli special forces cross Lebanese border

Israel launches raids into Lebanon ahead of possible ground incursion: WSJ reports the small, targeted raids are aimed at gathering intelligence ahead of a possible broader ground incursion that could come as soon as this week.

Invading Lebanon won’t bring the victory Israel needs: The death of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah creates opportunities for more war or for transformation. Netanyahu should choose the latter. Marc Champion

What this Israel-Hezbollah-Hamas-Iran conflict is really about Thomas L. Friedman

Israel dreams of a new order in the Middle East: But escalating the conflict further is more likely to lead to regional chaos. Gideon Rachman

US continues to back Israeli military operations, even when blindsided: Le Monde reports the American administration, whose action is limited, is strengthening its presence in the eastern Mediterranean. After the elimination of the Hezbollah leader, its main concern is Iran and the issue of nuclear weapons.

Zelensky visited US to seek war boost. His most-important ally shrugged. Ukrainian troops are slowly losing ground, and officials say more support is needed to hold back Russia back. WSJ

In Moscow, metro booths seek to attract new volunteers for the Ukrainian front: In the past month, new informational booths have popped up between the escalators and the turnstiles. Passengers are being offered the equivalent of €50,000 to join the army, an incentive that has met with limited success. Le Monde

This $2.4 billion lithium mine is caught between Russia and the West: US suspects Rio Tinto’s project in Serbia has been hit by a Russian disinformation campaign. WSJ

Austrian election: Hard right on course for victory: The Times reports Herbert Kickl, leader of the Freedom Party, wants to restore ties with Russia and ‘remigrate’ large numbers of people coming into the country.

Austria's far right achieves highest election result since 1945: Le Monde reports with 28.8% of the vote in Sunday's parliamentary elections, Austria's Freedom Party victory has triggered a political earthquake in the country of 9 million inhabitants. But all the other parties still refuse to form a coalition with them.

The uncertain future of the European Green Deal: The European right, along with Italy and Germany, is leading the offensive against two emblematic bills: one against deforestation and the other to ban the sell of internal combustion engine cars after 2035. Le Monde

UK, home of the industrial revolution, shuts its last coal-fired power plant: Britain was a country powered by coal. Now it’s the first G7 nation to quit it. In a matter of hours, the boilers at the Ratcliffe plant will cool to the touch. WP

Today is the day coal dies: On September 30, with the closure of Ratcliffe-on-Soar, Britain becomes the first major developed country to quit coal to generate electricity. This is the story of how we got here — and what the future holds. The Times

Britain is the first major economy to stop using coal. It’s a risky experiment. Ed Conway

Bloomberg: Germany is giving up hope of achieving any growth in 2024

Let's beware of a post-Olympic drift in the use of AI-powered video surveillance: Paris police chief said he was 'very much in favor' of extending the algorithmic video surveillance system used during the Olympic and Paralympic Games. But the system cannot be made permanent without a careful examination. Le Monde - Editorial

A party’s seven-decade dominance raises concerns for Japan’s democracy: The Liberal Democratic Party has ruled Japan for all but four of the past 69 years, leading some to ask whether its parliament is truly representative. WP

Chinese stocks surge 8.5% in best day since 2008: FT reports investors bet that rally which began with Beijing’s stimulus package has further to run.

Bloomberg: FOMO grips China stock buyers on ‘epic’ trading day before break

Defense-tech startups need a new supplier: Anyone but China: A new generation of companies is learning to build high-tech weapons without materials from Beijing. WSJ

How the US lost the solar power race to China: Bloomberg Opinion’s climate columnist visited Michigan, the former heart of the solar industry, and China to learn how good, old-fashioned capitalism won out. David Fickling

A dockworkers walkout could batter the American economy and tie up US trade: WSJ reports the International Longshoremen’s Association, which represents 45,000 dockworkers from Maine to Texas, is pushing for a 77% pay increase.

Dockworkers strike could begin Tuesday, with talks at an impasse: NYT reports members of the International Longshoremen’s Association could walk off the job, halting most shipments at East and Gulf Coast ports and rattling the US economy.

Copper producers issue fresh warnings about price volatility: FT reports the Antofagasta chief says there is a ‘disconnect’ between government policies and growing demand for red metal.

A transformative leader steps down in Mexico. What will his legacy be? President Andrés Manuel López Obrador lifted millions out of poverty while eroding democratic norms, allowing his nationalist political movement to expand its sway. NYT

Mexico’s first female president to take power under mentor’s shadow: Claudia Sheinbaum’s predecessor began a contentious national transformation. Can she chart her own path? FT

***  US Politics + Elections ***

Scores are fleeing North Carolina’s flooded towns after Helene, which killed at least 87 in six states: WSJ reports cellphone and internet signals in the region have been spotty — if working at all — making communication with the outside world a constant struggle.

In North Carolina, remnants of Helene become an ‘unprecedented tragedy’: NYT reports thousands of people struggled to cope without basic necessities as authorities searched for the missing, and the overall death toll from the storm surpassed 90.

Lost lives and an epic crisis in North Carolina: NYT reports scenes of devastation in the western part of the state, where the traces of Hurricane Helene destroyed some communities and stranded others.

‘Completely and entirely erased’: How Helene swallowed one mountain town: WSJ reports scenes of destruction and suffering lay almost everywhere in Swannanoa, NC — cars in tree limbs, mangled homes, mud-choked roads, and people desperate for water and food.

America’s gridlock election: ‘They are fighting for inches’: With just over a month until polling day, the race between Harris and Trump is too close to call. Is there anything that could shift voters’ views? FT

WSJ: Trump amps up rhetoric to keep immigration at center of election

Vance and the ‘New Right’ spark a policy war in Washington: Trump’s pick for vice president is leading an attempted populist GOP makeover. WSJ

Bloomberg: Vance, Walz set to spar in final debate of tight election race

+ Vice presidential hopefuls take the stage Tuesday in New York

+ CBS-hosted debate is last scheduled ahead of the Nov. 5 election

How Vance and Walz will try to win the debate: The two vice presidential hopefuls will clash on stage Tuesday night in New York. WSJ

Vance and Walz face contrasting pressures in much-anticipated debate: For JD Vance, Donald Trump may be his most important viewer. For Tim Walz, the task of introducing himself to voters looms large. WP

Walz v Vance debate: VP candidates prepare for Midwest showdown: The Democrat and Republican vice-presidential candidates will face off in the last televised head-to-head before the November election. The Times

Will the real Midwest please stand up? The vice-presidential debate, pitting Senator JD Vance of Ohio against Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, shines the spotlight on a complicated region. AO Scott

Republicans deploy cash to crack Democrats’ ‘blue wall’ in Senate: WSJ reports the group aligned with Sen. Mitch McConnell to spend $67.5 million on ad reservations in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Americans are more reliant than ever on government aid: An aging population and economic distress raise dependence on federal and state support. Here’s why that matters for the 2024 election. WSJ

Mayor Eric Adams of New York pleaded not guilty to bribery and fraud charges.

California’s Gavin Newsom vetoes controversial AI safety bill: Governor seeks more encompassing rules than the bill opposed by OpenAI, Meta and supported by research scientists. WSJ

California governor vetoes controversial AI bill in a win for Big Tech: Tech executives and investors opposed the measure, which would have required companies to test the most powerful AI systems before release. WP

California Governor vetoes sweeping AI legislation: The bill would have been the first in the nation to place strict guardrails on the new technology, but Gov. Gavin Newsom said the bill was flawed. NYT

California Governor Gavin Newsom vetoes AI safety bill: The legislation makes artificial intelligence companies legally liable for damage caused by their models. Le Monde

California governor vetoes bill to regulate artificial intelligence: Gavin Newsom agrees with leading AI companies that legislation could stifle innovation. FT

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

WSJ: AT&T to sell rest of DirecTV to TPG

DealBook: Dish and DirecTV near a deal to combine (again)

Wealthy Carolina town worries there’s danger lurking under its lawns: For decades, utilities across the nation sold waste coal ash to developers. The EPA now warns it poses a cancer risk. WSJ

OpenAI funding and restructuring plans renew pressure on AI’s top startup: WP reports the ChatGPT maker is seeking a valuation of $150 billion while also exploring a provocative overhaul of its nonprofit structure and dealing with executive departures.

Who’s left at OpenAI? Sam Altman consolidates power after failed coup: Departure of chief technology officer Mira Murati ensures ChatGPT-maker’s chief executive is now surrounded by allies. FT

Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund backs nuclear fuel start-up: FT reports the incubation effort comes as Big Tech looks to atomic energy to meet soaring power demand for AI race.

*** Culture ***

Francis Ford Coppola bet more than $100 million on his legacy. Now what? The director talks about his passion project, ‘Megalopolis,’ including reports of problems on set and how he paid for the film. WSJ

WSJ: Kris Kristofferson, country music icon and Hollywood star, dies at 88

The plan to save Frank Lloyd Wright’s only skyscraper isn’t going as planned: Less than two years ago, the building was thought to have been rescued from financial woes. Now, the new owners have it on the auction block, and some Wright-designed furnishings have already been sold. NYT

*** Sport ***

France's Antoine Griezmann retires from international football: Le Monde reports, with 137 appearances and 44 goals, the Atletico Madrid forward is the third most-capped player and fourth-highest goalscorer in France's history.

The Atheltic: Man United 0 Tottenham 3: What now for Ten Hag?


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal