Caracal Daily | October 1

Caracal Daily | October 1

Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.

Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.

Always Be Communicating.

Happy Tuesday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

WP: Israel tells Washington it plans imminent ground operation in Lebanon, US official says

Israeli special forces launch raids into Lebanon ahead of possible ground incursion: WSJ reports forays are aimed at gathering intelligence and probing Hezbollah’s capabilities.

Yoav Gallant, Israel’s defense minister, said that “the next stage in the war against Hezbollah will begin soon,” hinting that a ground invasion into Lebanon looms.

+ IDF tells Beirut suburb residents to evacuate; calls not to repeat unconfirmed reports of Israel attack locations

+ Israeli forces enter Hezbollah's underground tunnels ahead of likely ground assault

Books that probe the secrets of the Mossad: Seven books on Israeli intelligence agencies, which are spearheading the offensive against Hizbullah in Lebanon. Economist

In the Arab world, split reactions to Nasrallah killing reflect Hezbollah's divisiveness: In the Middle East, Hassan Nasrallah was as much appreciated for his ability to stand up to Israel as he was reviled for his involvement in crushing the Syrian revolution and pandering to Iranian interests. Le Monde

Russia launched an aerial assault on 11 regions in Ukraine.

Russia launches drone attack on Kyiv: DW reports several waves of Russian drones targeted the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv in the early hours of Monday morning. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said Moscow will achieve "all goals" in Ukraine.

1,200: A recent estimate of the number of Russian soldiers killed or wounded each day in Ukraine.

Russia to boost defense budget as Ukraine war drags on: NYT reports the Kremlin plans a 25 percent increase to more than $145 billion in 2025, a year in which it had intended to cut military spending.

Why Russia's economy is holding up, despite sanctions, inflation and labor shortages: Le Monde reports the world's most heavily sanctioned country, since it invaded Ukraine in February 2022, recorded year-on-year growth of 4% in the second quarter. But the Russian economy could suffer from structural handicaps.

DW: Nepal in state of emergency amid severe flooding, landslides

DW: New Zealand reclaims the world record for the largest haka

Nikkei: Singapore dollar hits 10-year high on U.S. dollar weakness, sticky inflation

Japan’s new prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, has said that he will call a general election for 27 October.

US announces $567 million military aid package for Taiwan: TJT reports the order means the US will directly ship its own weapon stocks to Taiwan, a move it has employed often to support Ukraine’s war effort.

China urges local companies to stay away from Nvidia’s chips: Bloomberg reports Beijing is stepping up pressure on Chinese companies to buy locally produced artificial intelligence chips instead of Nvidia Corp. products, part of the nation’s effort to expand its semiconductor industry and counter US sanctions.

China to roll out cybersecurity rules covering generative AI: Nikkei reports China will implement a string of new cybersecurity rules next year, authorities announced Monday, placing an emphasis on national security and requiring companies providing generative artificial intelligence services to add extra data protection.

China's tourism industry is bracing for sluggish growth over the upcoming national day holidays, even as regional governments begin to distribute cash vouchers to boost flagging consumer spending.

Seventy-five years after its founding, the doubts of the People's Republic of China: While the Beijing regime boasts flattering results on the world stage, Chinese society is gripped by pessimism. Harold Thibault

Fear of a Soviet-style collapse keeps Xi Jinping up at night: Communist China has now lived for longer than the USSR. Economist

EU picks experts to steer AI compliance rules: On Monday, the European Commission will convene the first plenary meeting of working groups -- made up of external experts -- tasked with drawing up the AI Act’s “code of practice,” which will spell out how exactly companies can comply with the wide-ranging set of laws. Reuters

The EU has set Oct. 4 for a vote on definitive tariffs on imported electric vehicles made in China.

British Labour has an economics lesson for Democrats: UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer gives priority to economic growth and breaking down investment barriers over big spending. Greg Ip

Le Pen plans politicization as defense at fake jobs trial: Le Monde reports to limit the impact of her trial for misappropriating public funds, Marine Le Pen, who risks being banned from running for office, wants to 'get involved in the match,' taking the spotlight despite a high risk of backlash.

Paris implements controversial 50 km/h ring road speed limit: Le Monde reports the new speed and carpooling rules will be gradually phased in between October 1 and October 10. The change affects a messy knot of Parisian road regulations.

Politico: NATO’s Stoltenberg has parting words for Europe: Don’t fear Trump, work with him

Africa's fight against antimicrobial resistance: Antimicrobial resistance is linked to more than 1 million disease-related deaths in Africa, according to a report by the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance Project. What's behind the statistics? DW

The United Nations extended the mandate of a Kenya-led multinational security support mission to Haiti for another year.

El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele makes an official visit to Argentina.

52.9: According to new government data, more than half of Argentines – a whopping 52.9% – lived below the poverty line during the first half of the year, the highest level in two decades. 

Brazilians choke as fire smoke blankets 80% of country: AFP reports with as much as 80 percent of Brazil under a blanket of smoke from historic wildfires, face masks last used during the coronavirus pandemic are coming out again.

Ernesto Zedillo says AMLO has left Mexico on the verge of authoritarianism: The former president exhorts Claudia Sheinbaum to opt for democracy. Economist

Why is Canada’s economy falling behind America’s? The country was slightly richer than Montana in 2019. Now, it is just poorer than Alabama. Economist

AI and globalization are shaking up software developers’ world: Their code will get cheaper. So might they. Economist

US sets new rule that could spur AI chip shipments to the Middle East: Reuters reports the US Commerce Department on Monday unveiled a rule that could ease shipments of artificial intelligence chips like those from Nvidia Corp. to data centers in the Middle East.

US and allies sound alarm over their adversaries’ military ties: NYT reports the Biden administration is struggling to halt cooperation among Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. It feels urgency over the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East while also aiming to protect Taiwan.

Breaking up with China is hard to do Peter Coy

***  US Politics + Elections ***

34: The number of days until Election Day.

Trump, Harris venture into the politics of Hurricane Helene: The Harris campaign accused Trump of a lack of empathy, and the Trump campaign said Harris should visit those affected. WP

Advocacy groups urge Congress to commit to certifying election results: WP reports the appeal comes as former president Donald Trump lays the groundwork to again challenge the outcome of the vote should he lose his bid to return to the White House.

Crypto bros 2024: How a tiny tribe of fanatical investors could sway the election. BI

Fortune: Most multimillionaire investors are voting for Harris, despite thinking Trump is better for the economy

Harris’s and Trump’s economic plans both promise utopia: High spending, low taxes—and don’t worry about the deficit. Economist

The Hill: Harris says she backs legalizing marijuana, going further than Biden

Republicans are starting to raise alarms about Trump’s ground game: Politico reports: “They are out-matching us in money, in enthusiasm, and in the ground game,” one Michigan-based GOP strategist said.

Ex-NBC News anchor Brian Williams is in “late-stage discussions” about hosting an Election Night show on Amazon Prime Video. 

Politico partnered with Capitol AI to bring new AI features to Politico Pro.

Reuters: US closes $1.52 billion loan to resurrect Michigan nuclear plant

+ President Joe Biden's administration has called for a tripling of US nuclear power capacity as US power demand surges and worries about climate change mount.

BBC: California governor blocks landmark AI safety bill

Time: Gavin Newsom blocks contentious AI safety bill in California

Gavin Newsom vetoes sweeping AI safety bill, siding with Silicon Valley: The legislation received fierce opposition from tech giants like OpenAI and A16z as well as California Democrats in Washington. Politico

Author of vetoed California AI bill says issue ‘not going away’ Bloomberg

Mark Cuban warns the US must win the AI race ‘or we lose everything’ Fortune

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

NASA confirms space station cracking a “highest” risk and consequence problem: ARS Tech reports NASA and Roscosmos have not agreed on the point at which the leak rate is untenable.

AP: SpaceX launches rescue mission for 2 NASA astronauts who are stuck in space until next year

Japan Airlines has begun recruiting dozens of flight attendants in the Philippines with the help of a local staffing agency, rebooting a program that was postponed during the coronavirus pandemic as it responds to growing demand for travel to Japan.

OpenAI is hosting a DevDay event at its San Francisco offices.

SoftBank’s Vision Fund plans to invest $500 million in OpenAI as part of a larger funding round, the Information reported on Monday, citing a person familiar with the deal.

Apple is said to no longer be taking part in OpenAI's massive funding round.

Nikkei: SK group sheds money-losing operations to fund $60bn AI push

Japanese bicycle parts maker Shimano plans to launch a gear shifting system next year that taps artificial intelligence to assist cyclists.

Chinese AI chipmaker Cambricon Technologies Corp. soared its 20% daily limit on Monday, leading a sector rally after Bloomberg News reported Beijing was stepping up pressure on domestic companies to ditch Nvidia Corp. processors for local alternatives.

The energy boss overhauling the grid for AI and net zero Bloomberg

Nvidia chief disputes climate consequences of AI: E&E News reports the tech giant CEO downplayed the massive energy demands of data centers by saying they could be powered by wind and solar.

Bain Capital announced on Monday that it will acquire Japan's largest cellphone sales agent, T-Gaia, purchasing the stakes of major shareholders Sumitomo Corp. and Tokyo-based Hikari Tsushin.

Jeep owner Stellantis warns of deterioration across global car industry: WSJ reports the car giant will accelerate its push to cut inventories on US dealer lots by adding discounts and shipping fewer vehicles.

The Row goes off grid at Paris Fashion Week: The brand asks attendees to put down the phones at a time when other designers lean into social media. Rachel Tashjian

*** Culture ***

Tom Hanks and the craze for classic communist cars: The Zastava, Lada, and Polski Fiat have come in from the cold. FT

It’s official: Megalopolis is a box-office mega flop(olis) Chris Lee

AFP: Oasis announces North American concert dates

*** Sport ***

The US beat the International Team, 18.5-11.5, to win the Presidents Cup for the 10th consecutive time.

Dikembe Mutombo, the Hall of Fame, finger-wagging center who spent much of his post-basketball career as an ambassador for the sport, has died of brain cancer at the age of 58, the NBA announced Monday.

The Jets went all-in on Aaron Rodgers. It’s looking like a bust. The Jets suffered an ugly and unexpected loss in Week 4, while Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels continued his star turn, and Derrick Henry led the Ravens to a marquee win. Andrew Beaton

AFP: Renault to end Formula One engine production from 2026

AC Milan, Inter ultras arrested for alleged organised crime offences: AFP reports hardcore supporters of AC Milan and Inter Milan were arrested on Monday for alleged organised crime offences as part of a probe into illegal profits made around matches and the infiltration of mafia gangs into so-called "ultras" groups.


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal