Caracal Daily | October 2

Caracal Daily | October 2

Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.

Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.

Always Be Communicating.

Happy Wednesday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

Israeli strikes on Lebanon are the most intense and deadly in decades: WP reports the IDF’s recent airstrikes on Lebanon killed over 1,400 people, and displaced more than 900,000, a fifth of the population.

Israeli response to Iran’s attack to set course of widening war: WSJ reports the US is hoping for a measured reaction, but it has limited ability to influence its closest Middle East ally.

Fear of regional war heightens after Iran missile attack on Israel: Le Monde reports Tehran fired almost 200 ballistic missiles toward Israel on Tuesday evening, on the same day the Israeli army led incursions into Lebanon. Israel's air defense, supported by the US and France, intercepted most of the missiles.

FT: Israel strikes Beirut after Iran missile attack stokes fears of wider war

CBC: How Israel responds to Iranian missile strikes could reshape politics of the region

A wider war in the Middle East, from Hamas to Hezbollah and now Iran: NYT reports the main questions now are how much the conflict will escalate and whether the United States will get more directly involved in the defense of Israel.

Israel vows retaliation for massive Iranian missile attack: Bloomberg reports Israel’s response could come within days and potential targets include Iranian oil infrastructure and military bases.

Israel said it would send more troops to assist the Lebanon invasion, and vowed to retaliate against Iran’s missile attack.

Iran’s hardliners prevail as regime gambles on Israel attack: Leaders had sought détente with west but concluded that IDF assault on Hizbollah left them looking weak. FT

ABC: Biden directed US military to help Israel shoot down Iranian missiles

NBC News: After Iran's attack on Israel, the Biden White House is desperately trying to avert a wider war in the Mideast

AP: After pressing an Israel-Hezbollah cease-fire, the Biden administration shifts its message

Politico: Trump blasts Harris on Iran, says Biden administration is ‘leading us to brink of World War III’

Israel and Iran have just delivered the US election’s ‘October surprise’: With American policy in the Middle East in tatters, Donald Trump could be the principal beneficiary of escalation in the region. Gideon Rachman

WP: Ukraine’s east buckling under improved Russian tactics, superior firepower

Spy mania sows fear among Russia’s scientists: At least a dozen of those involved in Moscow’s hypersonics research have been arrested on allegations of treason. WSJ

Russia increases defense budget by 30%: Le Monde reports the 2025 budget bill calls for military spending to account for almost a third of federal spending. At the same time, the Kremlin has called up 130,000 young people for military service.

How Russians serve the state: In battle, and in childbirth: President Vladimir Putin is throwing ever more resources at two interlocked priorities: recruiting more soldiers and encouraging bigger families. NYT

Russia-paid influencers, trolls step up efforts to influence US election: WP reports federal actions to stymie foreign influence campaigns haven’t cowed Moscow, researchers say.

US ramps up hunt for uranium to end reliance on Russia: Miners aim to meet a growing demand for emissions-free energy, though a failure to clean up old sites haunts the industry. NYT

Behind the scenes: How former Japanese PMs swayed Ishiba's election: Come-from-behind victory indicates a change in LDP internal politics. Nikkei

Singapore's lure for rich Chinese breeds family office tensions: City-state navigates reputational hazards in race to attract wealth. Nikkei

Taiwan shut down schools and closed its financial markets on Wednesday as Typhoon Krathon pounded its south and east with torrential rains and winds ahead of its expected landfall.

EU-China talks over EV tariffs to continue beyond Friday's vote: Nikkei reports the bloc is divided over action but minimum price, import quota are options on table.

Austria’s new electoral earthquake: Victory for the far-right FPÖ crystallizes dilemmas across the EU. FT - Editorial

‘Nothing left to lose’: Britain’s Conservatives are surprisingly upbeat: At its annual convention in Birmingham, the party is energized by a leadership contest and seems largely undisturbed by broader questions over its electability. NYT

The industrial revolution began here. Now, the UK is the 1st G7 country to phase out coal-fired power plant: Britain becomes first G7 country to phase out coal-fired power facilities. CBC

French PM Barnier presents 'roadmap' for political continuity amid break with Macron's approach: Le Monde reports in his first speech to Parliament, the prime minister pledged to make 'dialogue and the culture of compromise a principle of government.'

Spain welcomed a record 21.8 million international visitors to its shores this summer, official data showed on Wednesday, an influx of tourism that triggered some protests in the country.

Catholics meet to chart path forward, but women’s roles remain unclear: NYT reports the ordination of female deacons is no longer on the agenda during a global assembly at the Vatican, but will be discussed separately.

Pope opens new debates on Catholic Church future: AFP reports Pope Francis launched new consultations Wednesday on the future of the Roman Catholic Church, as it faces pressure over the role of women and the ongoing scourge of clerical child abuse.

Mexico’s first female president has a big problem: Her mentor’s legacy: Claudia Sheinbaum’s nationalist predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, implemented changes that risk blowing up longstanding ties with the US. WSJ

Mexico’s history-making leader charts her own course—delicately: Before Tuesday’s inauguration, Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico’s president-elect, embraced AMLO, her popular predecessor. Bloomberg

Reagan didn’t win the Cold War: How a myth about the collapse of the Soviet Union leads Republicans astray on China. Max Boot

The China challenge isn’t bringing Americans together: There is none of the bipartisan spirit that the Cold War brought to Washington. Janan Ganesh

See how dockworkers’ strike will snarl shipments of bananas, beer, cars, and more: The port closures will lead to delays and backlog for the global shipping industry. See which products could see shortages if the strike continues. WP

Global coal consumption still at a record high: Le Monde reports China and India, the world's two most populous countries, are the biggest producers and consumers of coal, while simultaneously installing photovoltaic panels and wind turbines.

The planet is warming at a record pace. So why are many companies retreating from their climate targets? Volvo, Shell, Air New Zealand among companies that have abandoned environmental pledges. CBC

***  US Politics + Elections ***

POTUS: A new Cook Political Report Swing State Project Survey shows Kamala Harris leading or tied with Donald Trump in all but one of the seven battleground states. Overall, she holds a narrow lead of 49% to 48% in a two-way matchup.

CBS’ “60 Minutes” announced that they invited Harris and Trump for separate interviews in a big special airing Monday — and Harris accepted with Bill Whitaker, while Trump accepted with Scott Pelley and then backed out. 

Civility and then a clash over Jan. 6: Seven takeaways from the debate: Senator JD Vance of Ohio and Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota sparred over immigration, abortion, and foreign policy — and then on Donald Trump’s 2020 election loss. NYT

The big VP debate takeaway: Neither candidate delivered the goods: Walz and Vance played defense for the presidential nominees. Politico

WSJ: Vance confident, Walz uneven in debate heavy on policy

WP: Walz struggles, Vance tries to recast himself and other debate takeaways

Vance refuses to say Trump lost in 2020, sparking debate’s biggest clash: WP reports Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz called Sen. JD Vance’s non-answer “damning” as the pair sparred over Jan. 6 and Trump’s refusal to concede defeat.

Vance peddles Trump agenda in softer tones, misleading ways during debate: WP reports the Republican vice-presidential nominee used the prime-time slot to try to repackage MAGA for the political middle, his latest well-timed reinvention.

Vance strains to sell a softer Trump: From the opening handshake, the Republican vice-presidential nominee sought to reinvent and repackage the record and views of the former president. NYT

The biggest shock of the VP debate? JD Vance’s new persona: More Mr Nice Guy: Donald Trump’s running-mate leaves his Twitter troll aura behind as Tim Walz stumbles. Will Pavia

JD Vance’s version of Trump is better than the real thing: The Republican largely prevailed in the vice-presidential debate by painting a gauzy picture of his ticketmate’s tenure, while Walz was unsteady. WSJ

Republican insiders were thrilled by JD Vance’s debate Ben Jacobs

JD Vance may be unprincipled, but he is smart and slick Jonathan Chait

Trumpism, post-Trump: VP debate offers flashes of potential US future: Same policies, different style from running mate Vance. Alexander Panetta

The Christian radicals are coming: The movement that fueled January 6 is revving up again. Stephanie McCrummen

Dockworker chief aims to make history with Election Day looming Bloomberg

+ Union chief Harold Daggett, clad in a blue sweatshirt that read “The Docks Are Ours,” relished the fear he says gripped his negotiating rivals when they saw his opposition to automation — a key sticking point in the first strike on the US East and Gulf ports since 1977.

The hurricane that threatens to sink Asheville’s feel-good success: The North Carolina mountain mecca’s economy was thriving until Helene hit. Residents are left wondering how they can rebuild. WSJ

How California politics killed a nationally important AI bill: The demise of California’s big swing at artificial intelligence safety underscored the powerful forces arrayed against regulation that’s seen as going too far. Politico

+ “[The bill] would have spurred Congress to act,” said Jason Green-Lowe, executive director at the Center for AI Policy, a nonprofit with ties to the effective altruism movement. “Now there’s even more need for Congress and the next president to take a stand on AI safety. But this California bill could have bought us some time and showed the way forward.”

Fortune: California governor signs law allowing Dutch-style cannabis cafes

Fortune: Homeowners are sitting on more than $35 trillion in equity

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

What kind of music makes you most productive at work? Here’s what the science says: A new study examines the relationship between the type of beats you listen to and your productivity on certain tasks. FC

The Mad Men theory of drunk decision-making Rory Sutherland

Fortune: Before Mira Murati’s surprise exit from OpenAI, staff grumbled its o1 model had been released prematurely

OpenAI wants all your apps to talk in its expressive AI voices: WP reports the ChatGPT developer will let other businesses build on its human-mimicking synthetic voice technology, potentially winning new revenue.

Google is working on reasoning AI, chasing OpenAI’s efforts: Bloomberg reports the push deepens the search giant’s rivalry with OpenAI.

Bloomberg: Oracle to invest $6.5 billion in Malaysia AI, cloud services hub

Dalio, Abu Dhabi Royal’s G42 said to shelve investment venture: Bloomberg reports Ray Dalio’s family office and Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan’s artificial intelligence firm G42 have abandoned plans to set up an asset management venture together in Abu Dhabi, according to people familiar with the matter.

Apple’s AI is landing soon on iPhones. Here’s what it’s like. The initial version of Apple Intelligence focuses on helping you with words and photos. Prepare to be impressed and unnerved. NYT

An ‘iPhone of AI’ makes no sense. What is Jony Ive really building? LoveFrom is working with OpenAI to build AI devices that are less “socially disruptive” than the iPhone. Is Ive looking for absolution or a new computing soul? Wired

Does anyone need an AI social network? John Herrman

Character dot ai abandons making AI models after $2.7bn Google deal: FT reports AI start-up’s new chief says race to build large language models against Big Tech got ‘insanely expensive.’

Fortune: Cerebras hopes planned IPO will supercharge its race against Nvidia and fellow chip startups for the fastest generative AI

Hurricane Helene shut two mines that together produce about four-fifths of the world’s highest-quality quartz — a crucial ingredient in the production of semiconductors.

Fortune: Hurricane Helene shuts down critical mines, endangering AI chip supply

Helene turned Asheville from climate science hub into a disaster case study: The city is home to the world’s largest collection of weather data. But it’s inaccessible as the federal data center that houses it remains without power. Bloomberg

Microsoft won’t impose a new return-to-office mandate unless management concludes that productivity has dropped, a high-level exec has reportedly told workers.

Bloomberg: Adam Neumann’s latest project is a WeWork competitor

Lazard, king of emerging-market debt, faces a new world order: Along with the demands of China and debt investors, the company faces more vigorous competition, including from its own former bankers. Bloomberg

European carmakers brace for a deeper and longer downturn: Profit warnings have come from a sector facing weak sales at home, intense competition in China, and slowing EV demand. FT

Nike needs to tread in Adidas’ footsteps: New CEO Elliott Hill should follow his counterpart at Adidas by under-promising and overdelivering. Andrea Felsted

This pill could be the next tool to help smokers quit: The medication, called cytisine, is already used elsewhere in the world. There are efforts to bring it to the US. NYT

Can Eli Lilly become the first $1tn drugmaker? The company is thriving as weight-loss drugs boom, but investors see warning signs it has reached ‘peak enthusiasm.’ FT

Meet the 2024 MacArthur ‘genius grant’ recipients Fortune

*** Culture ***

E-scooters have divided suburban Queens Clio Chang

Deadline: ‘Industry’ creators Mickey Down + Konrad Kay ink three-year overall deal with HBO

Coppola’s ‘Megalopolis’ plays to near-empty theaters: NYT reports Francis Ford Coppola spent roughly $140 million on the film, which debuted to an estimated $4 million in weekend ticket sales.

*** Sport ***

Fears for Little League baseball in the US as children’s sport commercializes: Traditional neighborhood games are losing out as youth sport becomes a multibillion-dollar industry. Patti Waldmeir

Detroit Tigers' Tarik Skubal beat Astros one fastball, one breath, and one howl at a time Shawn Windsor

The quarterback who just threw a perfect game: Jared Goff was viewed as a liability when he was cast aside by the Los Angeles Rams four years ago. But he has rebuilt his career in Detroit, a transformation underlined by a record-setting 18-of-18 passing display on Monday night. WSJ

Jared Goff's flawless night means anything is possible for Detroit Lions Mitch Albom

Is a super league coming for college football? The prospect of a breakaway by the sport’s biggest programs has loomed over college football for years. Now a group of disruptive sports executives has unveiled a vision for what it might look like. WSJ

College football ‘Super League’ details unveiled, would be called ‘College Student Football League’ The Atletic

Pete Rose stayed Pete Rose until the end: The Hit King never made it to baseball’s Hall of Fame. Did a stubborn, self-inflicted saga need to play out this way? Jason Gay


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal