Caracal Daily | October 3

Caracal Daily | October 3

Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.

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Happy Thursday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

AP: Israel presses forward on two fronts and reports 8 combat deaths as fears of a wider war mount

The Times: Israel counts cost of war amid fears that operation may widen

Israel says eight soldiers killed in Lebanon combat: WSJ reports Israel said the soldiers were engaged in close fighting with Hezbollah militants and signaled it would retaliate for Iran’s attack on the country.

Israeli military deaths in Lebanon raise questions over war’s scope: WP reports eight Israeli soldiers were killed Wednesday in Lebanon, deaths that could shape the depth and scope of an Israeli ground offensive against Hezbollah.

Military briefing: How Israel could retaliate against Iran: IDF is widely expected to strike the Islamic republic following missile barrage. FT

US tells Israel it won’t join counter-strike on Iran, urges caution: Politico reports Washington wants to prevent the conflict from escalating.

US and G7 warn Israel against strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities: FT reports Western officials fear Washington’s influence may be limited as they try to prevent escalation of regional conflict.

Biden confronts the limits of his influence over Israel: Politico reports after a year of effort, the US may be unable to stop full-scale regional war.

How Binyamin Netanyahu bounced back: Last October the prime minister was fighting for political survival. Now he has Israel’s enemies on the run — and he’s consolidating his power at home. The Times

Israel bans UN chief Guterres from entering the country: Politico reports the "undesirable" label marks major escalation in feud between Israel and United Nations secretary-general.

After missile attack, Israel may be ready to risk all-out war with Iran: NYT reports Israel seems ready to respond in a much more forceful and public way with Iran after Tehran launched its second massive missile attack on Israel this year, analysts and officials say.

Why did Iran attack Israel and how could Netanyahu strike back? The IDF has vast capabilities — and myriad reasons to avoid conflagration in the Middle East. The Times
https://www.thetimes.com/world/middle-east/article/why-iran-attack-israel-nuclear-7xnb5vphh

Iran ‘could have ten nuclear warheads by April’: The Times reports the missiles that were fired at Israel could be adapted to carry the weapons, expert warns — but a strike by Netanyahu on Iran’s nuclear sites would not be supported by the US.

In Lebanon, a million people displaced in a country in chaos: Le Monde reports the scale and intensity of the Israeli offensive launched on Lebanon on September 23 forced many residents to seek refuge, catching humanitarian organizations unawares.

Russia places four journalists on trial for 'extremism': DW reports four independent journalists have appeared in a Russian court charged with supporting the organization of the late Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny.

Politico: Russia tightens grip on Donetsk region as it captures key Ukrainian town

Ukraine's armed forces continue to retreat in the face of Russian attacks: Le Monde reports with fewer human and material resources, Ukraine is struggling to hold out, as evidenced by the imminent fall of the town of Vuhledar in the Donetsk region.

Ukrainians keep making wine under fire: Russia may have brought war to their country, but Ukrainians are determined to keep making wine. DW's Carolina Chimoy traveled to Kherson in eastern Ukraine to meet the winemakers who are determined to persevere. DW

Xi Jinping’s belated stimulus has reset the mood in Chinese markets: But can the buying frenzy last? Economist

Analysis: Xi Jinping has Shigeru Ishiba walking a diplomatic tightrope: Japan inaugurates a new PM while its businesses voice China safety concerns. Nikkei

China is ready for war: And thanks to a crumbling defense industrial base, America is not. Seth G. Jones

Macron and Scholz differ on tariffs on Chinese electronic vehicles: Le Monde reports amid a context of EU Commission plans for import duties on Chinese electric cars, France's Emmanuel Macron voiced support for the tariffs, whereas Germany's Olaf Scholz called for 'negotiations' with China.

Motion to impeach Macron rejected by Parliament committee: Le Monde reports the motion had little support outside of the radical left party La France Insoumise.

Britain’s Conservatives adopt the bad habits of the Labour left: The cult of the member grips the opposition. Economist

Why on Earth would anyone go to a British party conference? A short guide to an odd political ritual. Economist

UK and EU pledge to hold regular leaders’ summits from 2025: FT reports Von der Leyen and Starmer agree closer co-operation between London and Brussels.

UK's Keir Starmer in Brussels to 'make Brexit work': DW reports the British prime minister has said he hopes to "reset" ties with the European Union. Ursula von der Leyen, the chief of the bloc's executive arm, called for closer UK-EU cooperation.

Italy has made a new offer for Telecom Italia SpA’s Sparkle submarine cable unit, in a bid that values it at €700 million ($774 million), according to a statement Wednesday.

UAE to invest $23bn in low-carbon energy solutions over next 5 years: Nikkei reports the national oil company to export hydrogen and ammonia to Asia and Europe.

Dominican Republic announces plan to deport 10,000 undocumented Haitians per week: Le Monde reports the government made its decision in light of the international community's 'slowness' in restoring stability in Haiti, large parts of which have been overrun by gangs.

Claudia Sheinbaum was sworn in as Mexico’s first female president. 

Mexico: Claudia Sheinbaum faces economic challenges: Mexico is once again caught in the crossfire of a US presidential election. How will new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, navigate the troubled waters of "America First" policies? DW

Mexico’s history-making leader charts her own course—delicately: Before Tuesday’s inauguration, Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico’s president-elect, embraced AMLO, her popular predecessor. Bloomberg

Harold Daggett, US port union boss disrupting global trade: The powerful longshoremen president has closed eastern and southern US docks. FT

***  US Politics + Elections ***

Special counsel says Trump committed ‘private crimes’ in bid to stay in power: WSJ reports prosecutors’ submission of evidence says Trump was unconcerned about Vice President Pence’s safety on Jan. 6, 2021.

Special counsel lays out new evidence against Trump, including his words and actions on Jan. 6: WP reports the new filing describes Donald Trump expressing ambivalence over measures  to ensure Mike Pence’s safety. The former president allegedly said ‘So what?’

Judge unseals new evidence in federal election case against Trump: NYT reports Judge Tanya Chutkan made public portions of a filing by prosecutors setting out their argument for why the case should go forward despite the Supreme Court’s ruling on presidential immunity.

Hurricane Helene updates: Biden sends in troops as 600 remain missing: The Times reports the death toll has exceeded 180 while analysts put the cost of damages as high as $160 billion.

Rescue and recovery efforts extend deeper into areas ravaged by Helene: WP reports at least 154 have died as a result of Helene, with some officials saying they expect the death toll to rise.

Why Helene devastated an area so far inland: High-altitude moisture, warm temperatures, soggy soil and the lifting effect of mountains fueled the already-powerful storm. WSJ

Hurricane Helene scrambles campaign calculus for Harris and Trump: WSJ reports devastation in two crucial swing states means candidates have to show command and empathy—without appearing to politicize a disaster.

NC presidential race close as Helene recovery begins, Post poll finds: WP reports Republican Mark Robinson trails by a wide margin in the race for governor following allegations of lewd and racist comments.

POTUS: A new Economist/YouGov poll finds Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump nationally among likely voters in a multi-candidate field, 49% to 46%.

In deep-blue Philly, working class voters are shifting toward Republicans: Philadelphia Inquirer reports Democrats have lost the most ground in neighborhoods where poverty rates are highest. It could hurt Kamala Harris in November.

CNN: Trump says Vance's debate performance "reconfirmed my choice" as his VP

+ Nearly 40 million watched the vice presidential debate

An imprecise biography catches up with Tim Walz: WSJ reports the Democratic VP nominee vowed to “be clearer” after exaggerating his proximity to the Tiananmen Square protests.

Bloomberg: Trump spent more than he raised for second month in a row

Trump mixes up words, swerves among subjects in off-topic speech: WP reports the Republican nominee appeared tired and complained about his heightened campaign schedule.

Game Change knew exactly what was coming: The movie seems much more complicated now than it did in 2012. James Parker

Elon Musk gave tens of millions to republican causes far earlier than previously known: The donations were to groups with ties to former Trump aide Stephen Miller and to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s presidential bid. WSJ

California’s AI bill was well-meaning but flawed: Tech regulation needs to support innovation, while setting clear safety standards. FT - Editorial

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

Why Vinod Khosla is all in on AI Time

OpenAI has completed a deal to raise $6.6 billion in new funding, giving the artificial intelligence company a $157 billion valuation and bolstering its efforts to build the world’s leading generative AI technology.

OpenAI asks investors not to back rival start-ups such as Elon Musk’s xAI: FT reports Sam Altman-led group wants exclusive arrangement as it secures $6.6bn funding round.

OpenAI feels competitors breathing down its neck: Latest funding round has boosted the company’s valuation to $150bn, but it faces formidable challenges. Richard Waters

Why concerns about OpenAI’s new logo are about more than design: Can a simple circle really be ‘ominous’? The ChatGPT creator’s potential logo change is a brand Rorschach test. FC

CNBC: For Nvidia, spatial AI and the ‘omniverse’ entering physical world may be the next big thing

Did Apple just kill social apps? Some app makers worry that a subtle change to the iPhone’s contact-sharing permissions could make it hard for them to get the fast growth they need to compete. NYT

Amazon to increase number of advertisements on Prime Video: FT reports the e-commerce group attempting to win over more brands as it steps up push into ad-funded streaming services in 2025.

Apple rolls back its big plans to release movies in theaters: Bloomberg reports the tech giant intended to spend $1 billion annually on films for cinemas. After several box office disappointments, it’s shifting releases like Wolfs back to its streaming service.

Empty rentals burn vacation-home owners near Florida’s Disney World: To stand out in a cooling market, landlords are spending $150,000 in Mickey Mouse and Harry Potter decor. Bloomberg

Toyota to delay US EV production to 2026 on slowing sales: Nikkei reports Japanese automaker to review lineup of EVs to be made in North America.

Levi Strauss considers the sale of Dockers brand.

The end of the cheap burger: Fast-food chains might be dangling deals, but meat-eaters better prepare for a new, more expensive era for America’s favorite food. Bloomberg

After a decade, scientists unveil fly brain in stunning detail: Scientists have mapped out how 140,000 neurons are wired in the brain of the fruit fly, Drosophila melanogaster. NYT

*** Culture ***

Myha’la claims her name: An explosive Industry season 3 finale promises huge changes for Harper Stern. But with season 4, two new films, and a wedding in the future, the actress who plays her is making moves just as big. Elle

DC's last bike messengers: While DC’s once-ubiquitous couriers have been pushed to the brink of extinction, their culture and camaraderie endure—as does their impact on the city’s streets. Washingtonian

*** Sport ***

LVMH took over the Paris Olympics. Now it’s snagged Formula One. From Louis Vuitton trophy cases to Moët & Chandon on the podium, the luxury conglomerate is pulling out the stops with a 10-year sponsorship deal. WSJ

French luxury goods giant LVMH announces Formula One sponsorship: Le Monde reports Bernard Arnault, one of the world's richest men and CEO of the luxury group, known for brands like Louis Vuitton and Moet Hennessy, described the 10-year sponsorship deal as a 'great and unique partnership.'

Michael Jordan’s racing team files antitrust lawsuit against NASCAR: WSJ reports 23XI Racing is accusing the stock-car series of exploiting its power over teams to deny them a greater share of the sport’s revenue.

Miami Dolphins owner Stephen Ross is in advanced talks with private equity firm Ares Management and billionaire Joe Tsai to sell stakes in the NFL team and other assets at a valuation of $8.1 billion, according to people familiar with the transaction.

Gonzaga joins the Pac-12 as college sports realignment continues: WP reports the basketball powerhouse will leave the West Coast Conference in 2026.

Detroit Tigers secret is out: A rare team meeting sparked stunning MLB playoff surge DFP


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal