Caracal Daily | October 7
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Monday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
Over a billion have voted in 2024: has democracy won? Half the world has had elections so far this year. Economist
Mossad’s pager operation: Inside Israel’s penetration of Hezbollah: New details emerge of Israel’s elaborate plan to sabotage Hezbollah communications devices to kill or maim thousands of its operatives. WP
WSJ: Israel launches new offensive in northern Gaza, orders mass evacuation
NYT: On eve of Oct. 7 anniversary, Israel strikes Gaza and Lebanon
Israel strikes Gaza, Lebanon and renews warnings to Iran: Le Monde reports strikes continued in Gaza and Beirut on Sunday as Israel warned Iran from 'taking action.' Tehran announced a mass cancellation of flights from tonight.
WP: Macron tells Netanyahu directly that it’s ‘time for a cease-fire’ as airstrikes pound Beirut suburbs
How the push to avert a broader war in Lebanon fell apart: Diplomats thought both Israel and Hezbollah supported a call for a temporary cease-fire. Then Israel killed Hezbollah’s leader. NYT
How the US-Israel relationship actually works: What does the Biden Administration want Netanyahu to do in Lebanon and Gaza? TNY
'I want to go home': Ukrainians flee Russia's advance in Donbas: Thousands of people evacuated the city of Pokrovsk and the surrounding area after it was hit by intense fighting. Relocated to temporary shelters in the Dnipro region, these displaced people have had to rebuild everything. Le Monde
Ruben Brekelmans, the Dutch defence minister, pledged €400m ($440m) towards the development of Ukraine’s drone programme while visiting Kyiv.
Former NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg: ‘So far, we have called Putin’s bluff’: The Norwegian politician on his decade as a KGB contact, crossing Russia’s red lines — and what comes next for Ukraine. FT
Tories remain the ‘party party.’ Time for a bouncer. More of the same could doom Conservatives to a long stay in the wilderness or even organizational collapse. They better get this leadership contest right. Martin Ivens
The Times: Sue Gray resigns as Starmer’s chief of staff
UK prime minister’s chief of staff, Sue Gray, resigns: NYT reports Gray said intense media scrutiny of her role meant she “risked becoming a distraction” to the new Labour government.
How she lost No 10 power battle — and what comes next The Times
Eric Schmidt: Google’s ex-CEO to join PM at UK investment summit: Starmer moves to ease the gloom and declare Britain open for business. The Times
‘Q’ review: Playing Queen Elizabeth: The Queen confessed she once wanted to be an actress. She achieved her ambition, ‘But always the same role.’ WSJ
Cement is a big polluter. A plant in Norway hopes to clean it up. Heidelberg Materials is betting it can profit from an expensive process that will reduce the carbon dioxide emitted from one of the world’s most polluting industries. NYT
Germany ‘reopens old wounds’ with border checks: FT reports Berlin’s decision risks hampering borderless travel in Schengen area.
Europe's obsession with immigration: Le Monde reports while irregular arrivals have fallen by 39% since the start of 2024, European leaders on both the right and left are not hesitating to borrow ideas that the far right has been advocating for 40 years.
Is Europe becoming ungovernable? Political fragmentation is paralyzing the continent’s largest economies. WSJ
Oliver Blume, Volkswagen’s boss, warned that the tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles approved by the EU on Friday could endanger the German auto industry in an interview with Bild am Sonntag, a German newspaper.
Bloomberg: VW CEO sees threat of retaliatory tariffs from China, Bild says
+ Blume proposes exempting certain companies from tariffs
+ EU targets Chinese-made EVs over claims of unfair subsidies
With the handover of the Chagos Islands, the UK cedes part of its colonial past in the Indian Ocean: Le Monde reports the Republic of Mauritius had been claiming sovereignty over these islands for over 50 years. The agreement signed by Keir Starmer's government allows the UK to keep the military base it leases to the US Army.
New Zealand navy ship sinks after hitting reef: The Times reports Commander Yvonne Gray, the British-born master of MNZS Manawanui, is praised for saving lives by ordering the 75 crew and passengers to abandon ship off Samoa.
Indian companies move in as US cuts China out of its solar industry: FT reports Washington weighs more tariffs on imports after flood of Chinese panels drove global prices to record lows.
Today: South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol visits Southeast Asia, stopping in the Philippines and Singapore.
South Korea wakes up to the next K-wave: The 'silver economy': After pop culture, goods and services for the elderly tipped to be next Korean big thing. Nikkei
Tuesday: China's mainland stock exchanges reopen after a weeklong holiday.
Chinese hackers accessed the networks of US broadband providers and obtained information from systems the federal government uses for court-authorized wiretapping, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday.
Vietnam’s GDP grew by 7.4% in the three months to the end of September compared with the same period a year earlier.
Wednesday: Leaders of the ASEAN bloc meet for a three-day summit in the Laotian capital, Vientiane, to discuss economic and security issues.
Nikkei: What is syphilis and why is it spreading in Japan?
+ Nearly 60% of women infected are in their 20s, including pregnant mothers
Wednesday: Japan dissolves its lower house ahead of early elections to be held on Oct. 27, when newly elected Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) look to strengthen their numbers in parliament.
Thursday: Taiwan celebrates its National Day, with new President Lai Ching-te due to mark the occasion with a speech.
Haiti seeks ‘urgent’ reinforcement of Kenya-led force to fight gangs: Acting prime minister Garry Conille says police have not restored order yet in ‘one neighbourhood.’ FT
What America’s presidential election means for world trade: The first in a series of eight concise briefs on the consequences of the 2024 election. Economist
*** US Politics + Elections ***
WSJ: Milton upgraded to hurricane as it heads for Florida
Florida prepares to evacuate millions of people ahead of another potential hurricane: Politico reports the state is still recovering from Helene, which made landfall less than two weeks ago.
WP: Another major storm in Florida may test FEMA’s capacity
US official says ‘dangerous’ disinformation hampers storm recovery: FT reports Trump campaign has attacked Kamala Harris with unproven claims about the Hurricane Helene relief effort.
Bloomberg: House Speaker says Congress can wait for Helene damage needs
+ GOP’s Johnson says specific aid requests take time to compile
+ Politics surrounding Hurricane Helene inflamed by election
Trump’s speeches, increasingly angry and rambling, reignite the question of age: With the passage of time, the 78-year-old former president’s speeches have grown darker, harsher, longer, angrier, less focused, more profane and increasingly fixated on the past, according to a review of his public appearances over the years. NYT
Trump pitches watches, crypto and his wife's book in the campaign's final weeks: NBC News reports conflict-of-interest concerns have long swirled around Trump’s mixing of business and politics. But his recent promotions have been unusual given how close the election is.
Bloomberg: Oil moguls emerge as key cash source for Trump as race nears end
+ MOGA = Make Oil Great Again
Big Oil urges Trump not to gut Biden’s climate law: WSJ reports oil companies try to persuade Trump and his Republican allies not to slash provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act potentially worth billions.
Democrats try ‘Trump-proofing’ their states ahead of Election Day: WP reports from Washington to Massachusetts, blue states are rushing to protect their policy priorities from the reach of a potential second Trump administration.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is “begging” wife Cheryl Hines not to file for divorce in the wake of his alleged “personal relationship” with journalist Olivia Nuzzi, People magazine reports.
The swing state battles that will win the US election: From a ‘blue wall’ to the American desert, these are the places where the 2024 presidential race will be decided. FT
Why I stopped making election forecasts: The shocks of recent times have shown the rational voter is a myth. Simon Kuper
War Game TV review — gripping BBC doc simulates a fictional coup in America: Former politicians and military veterans on how the US would deal with a replay of 2021’s Capitol attack. FT
Politico: Senator-not-yet-elect Schiff is already boosting likely future colleagues
Senate Republicans’ strangely uneven spending map: Politico reports the distribution of ad spending for Senate GOP candidates is highly lopsided, with a massive amount focused on Pennsylvania.
WP: Dockworkers union asserts ‘absolute, airtight’ anti-automation stance
Mapping the Carville era, from Bill Clinton’s alter ego to Joe Biden’s bete noire: The legendary political consultant had just completed a documentary on his career. Then came its most consequential chapter in 30 years. Politico
‘Citizen Nation’ review: Mastering the Constitution on PBS: Also streaming on YouTube and Prime Video, this four-part documentary follows high-schoolers competing in ‘We the People,’ which tests young people’s civics knowledge. WSJ
The racist AI deepfake that fooled and divided a community: When an audio clip appeared to show a local school principal making derogatory comments, it went viral online, sparked death threats against the educator and sent ripples through a suburb outside the city of Baltimore. But it was soon exposed as a fake, manipulated by artificial intelligence - so why do people still believe it’s real? BBC
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
AI-generated images can teach robots how to act: Gen AI models aren’t just good for creating pictures—they can be fine-tuned to generate useful robot training data, too. Rhiannon Williams
Google’s grip on search slips as TikTok and AI startup mount challenge: WSJ reports as new offerings for advertisers arrive, Google’s share of the US search ad market is projected by one research firm to drop below 50% next year.
Big AI thins out the competition as startups quit the race to build large language models Fortune
Foxconn beat expectations to post its highest-ever revenue for the third quarter on strong demand for artificial intelligence servers.
What the heck is going on At OpenAI? As executives flee with warnings of danger, the company says it will plow ahead. THR
Bloomberg: Khosla says OpenAI’s team is strong, despite departures
It’s time to stop taking Sam Altman at his word: Understand AI for what it is, not what it might become. David Karpf
Grindr aims to build the dating world’s first AI ‘wingman’: WSJ reports the dating app is testing an AI bot for gay and bi men that would scout for long-term relationship prospects, set up dates—and even date other wingmen for you.
Even the ‘godmother of AI’ has no idea what AGI is TC
A glossary for the AI revolution: Every advance in artificial intelligence comes with a confusing plethora of arcane terminology. Here’s a guide to distinguish your AGIs from your GPTs. Bloomberg
I’m a doctor. ChatGPT’s bedside manner is better than mine. Dr. Jonathan Reisman
Pentagon contracts for $96M in Oura smart rings, services: DefenseScoop reports in addition to putting the smart ring on the hands of service members, the contract also provides a suite of data analytics services the Pentagon can use to take action on the biometric information generated by the devices.
‘The Driving Machine’ review: How the world got on a roll: Carmakers tried all sorts of tricks to make their cars more appealing. Carl Benz’s first one looked like a birdcage. WSJ
Meet the HENRYS: The six-figure earners who don’t feel rich: When you’re a HENRY—high earner, not rich yet—a hefty salary isn’t enough to buy freedom from financial pressure. WSJ
*** SOTD ***
The Revolution Will Not Be Televised by Gil Scott-Heron Spotify
*** Culture ***
Money buys happiness, even if you’re already rich: A 10% raise delivers a similar boost in satisfaction across income levels, research finds. WSJ
WSJ: $200 million ‘Joker’ sequel is a box office bust
Bring on the Oscars chaos: The 2025 Academy Awards race will be the most wide-open movie season in years. I can’t wait. Nate Jones
*** Sport ***
‘Why We Love Football’ Review: America’s national pastime: The author of ‘Why We Love Baseball’ turns his attention from the diamond to the gridiron. WSJ
Mauricio Pochettino's first USMNT roster may be disappointing, but it makes sense Nancy Armour
US hiring Pochettino shows serious ambition Chris Richards
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Daily | October 3
Caracal Daily | October 3
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Thursday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
AP: Israel presses forward on two fronts and reports 8 combat deaths as fears of a wider war mount
The Times: Israel counts cost of war amid fears that operation may widen
Israel says eight soldiers killed in Lebanon combat: WSJ reports Israel said the soldiers were engaged in close fighting with Hezbollah militants and signaled it would retaliate for Iran’s attack on the country.
Israeli military deaths in Lebanon raise questions over war’s scope: WP reports eight Israeli soldiers were killed Wednesday in Lebanon, deaths that could shape the depth and scope of an Israeli ground offensive against Hezbollah.
Military briefing: How Israel could retaliate against Iran: IDF is widely expected to strike the Islamic republic following missile barrage. FT
US tells Israel it won’t join counter-strike on Iran, urges caution: Politico reports Washington wants to prevent the conflict from escalating.
US and G7 warn Israel against strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities: FT reports Western officials fear Washington’s influence may be limited as they try to prevent escalation of regional conflict.
Biden confronts the limits of his influence over Israel: Politico reports after a year of effort, the US may be unable to stop full-scale regional war.
How Binyamin Netanyahu bounced back: Last October the prime minister was fighting for political survival. Now he has Israel’s enemies on the run — and he’s consolidating his power at home. The Times
Israel bans UN chief Guterres from entering the country: Politico reports the "undesirable" label marks major escalation in feud between Israel and United Nations secretary-general.
After missile attack, Israel may be ready to risk all-out war with Iran: NYT reports Israel seems ready to respond in a much more forceful and public way with Iran after Tehran launched its second massive missile attack on Israel this year, analysts and officials say.
Why did Iran attack Israel and how could Netanyahu strike back? The IDF has vast capabilities — and myriad reasons to avoid conflagration in the Middle East. The Times
https://www.thetimes.com/world/middle-east/article/why-iran-attack-israel-nuclear-7xnb5vphh
Iran ‘could have ten nuclear warheads by April’: The Times reports the missiles that were fired at Israel could be adapted to carry the weapons, expert warns — but a strike by Netanyahu on Iran’s nuclear sites would not be supported by the US.
In Lebanon, a million people displaced in a country in chaos: Le Monde reports the scale and intensity of the Israeli offensive launched on Lebanon on September 23 forced many residents to seek refuge, catching humanitarian organizations unawares.
Russia places four journalists on trial for 'extremism': DW reports four independent journalists have appeared in a Russian court charged with supporting the organization of the late Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny.
Politico: Russia tightens grip on Donetsk region as it captures key Ukrainian town
Ukraine's armed forces continue to retreat in the face of Russian attacks: Le Monde reports with fewer human and material resources, Ukraine is struggling to hold out, as evidenced by the imminent fall of the town of Vuhledar in the Donetsk region.
Ukrainians keep making wine under fire: Russia may have brought war to their country, but Ukrainians are determined to keep making wine. DW's Carolina Chimoy traveled to Kherson in eastern Ukraine to meet the winemakers who are determined to persevere. DW
Xi Jinping’s belated stimulus has reset the mood in Chinese markets: But can the buying frenzy last? Economist
Analysis: Xi Jinping has Shigeru Ishiba walking a diplomatic tightrope: Japan inaugurates a new PM while its businesses voice China safety concerns. Nikkei
China is ready for war: And thanks to a crumbling defense industrial base, America is not. Seth G. Jones
Macron and Scholz differ on tariffs on Chinese electronic vehicles: Le Monde reports amid a context of EU Commission plans for import duties on Chinese electric cars, France's Emmanuel Macron voiced support for the tariffs, whereas Germany's Olaf Scholz called for 'negotiations' with China.
Motion to impeach Macron rejected by Parliament committee: Le Monde reports the motion had little support outside of the radical left party La France Insoumise.
Britain’s Conservatives adopt the bad habits of the Labour left: The cult of the member grips the opposition. Economist
Why on Earth would anyone go to a British party conference? A short guide to an odd political ritual. Economist
UK and EU pledge to hold regular leaders’ summits from 2025: FT reports Von der Leyen and Starmer agree closer co-operation between London and Brussels.
UK's Keir Starmer in Brussels to 'make Brexit work': DW reports the British prime minister has said he hopes to "reset" ties with the European Union. Ursula von der Leyen, the chief of the bloc's executive arm, called for closer UK-EU cooperation.
Italy has made a new offer for Telecom Italia SpA’s Sparkle submarine cable unit, in a bid that values it at €700 million ($774 million), according to a statement Wednesday.
UAE to invest $23bn in low-carbon energy solutions over next 5 years: Nikkei reports the national oil company to export hydrogen and ammonia to Asia and Europe.
Dominican Republic announces plan to deport 10,000 undocumented Haitians per week: Le Monde reports the government made its decision in light of the international community's 'slowness' in restoring stability in Haiti, large parts of which have been overrun by gangs.
Claudia Sheinbaum was sworn in as Mexico’s first female president.
Mexico: Claudia Sheinbaum faces economic challenges: Mexico is once again caught in the crossfire of a US presidential election. How will new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, navigate the troubled waters of "America First" policies? DW
Mexico’s history-making leader charts her own course—delicately: Before Tuesday’s inauguration, Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico’s president-elect, embraced AMLO, her popular predecessor. Bloomberg
Harold Daggett, US port union boss disrupting global trade: The powerful longshoremen president has closed eastern and southern US docks. FT
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Special counsel says Trump committed ‘private crimes’ in bid to stay in power: WSJ reports prosecutors’ submission of evidence says Trump was unconcerned about Vice President Pence’s safety on Jan. 6, 2021.
Special counsel lays out new evidence against Trump, including his words and actions on Jan. 6: WP reports the new filing describes Donald Trump expressing ambivalence over measures to ensure Mike Pence’s safety. The former president allegedly said ‘So what?’
Judge unseals new evidence in federal election case against Trump: NYT reports Judge Tanya Chutkan made public portions of a filing by prosecutors setting out their argument for why the case should go forward despite the Supreme Court’s ruling on presidential immunity.
Hurricane Helene updates: Biden sends in troops as 600 remain missing: The Times reports the death toll has exceeded 180 while analysts put the cost of damages as high as $160 billion.
Rescue and recovery efforts extend deeper into areas ravaged by Helene: WP reports at least 154 have died as a result of Helene, with some officials saying they expect the death toll to rise.
Why Helene devastated an area so far inland: High-altitude moisture, warm temperatures, soggy soil and the lifting effect of mountains fueled the already-powerful storm. WSJ
Hurricane Helene scrambles campaign calculus for Harris and Trump: WSJ reports devastation in two crucial swing states means candidates have to show command and empathy—without appearing to politicize a disaster.
NC presidential race close as Helene recovery begins, Post poll finds: WP reports Republican Mark Robinson trails by a wide margin in the race for governor following allegations of lewd and racist comments.
POTUS: A new Economist/YouGov poll finds Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump nationally among likely voters in a multi-candidate field, 49% to 46%.
In deep-blue Philly, working class voters are shifting toward Republicans: Philadelphia Inquirer reports Democrats have lost the most ground in neighborhoods where poverty rates are highest. It could hurt Kamala Harris in November.
CNN: Trump says Vance's debate performance "reconfirmed my choice" as his VP
+ Nearly 40 million watched the vice presidential debate
An imprecise biography catches up with Tim Walz: WSJ reports the Democratic VP nominee vowed to “be clearer” after exaggerating his proximity to the Tiananmen Square protests.
Bloomberg: Trump spent more than he raised for second month in a row
Trump mixes up words, swerves among subjects in off-topic speech: WP reports the Republican nominee appeared tired and complained about his heightened campaign schedule.
Game Change knew exactly what was coming: The movie seems much more complicated now than it did in 2012. James Parker
Elon Musk gave tens of millions to republican causes far earlier than previously known: The donations were to groups with ties to former Trump aide Stephen Miller and to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s presidential bid. WSJ
California’s AI bill was well-meaning but flawed: Tech regulation needs to support innovation, while setting clear safety standards. FT - Editorial
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
Why Vinod Khosla is all in on AI Time
OpenAI has completed a deal to raise $6.6 billion in new funding, giving the artificial intelligence company a $157 billion valuation and bolstering its efforts to build the world’s leading generative AI technology.
OpenAI asks investors not to back rival start-ups such as Elon Musk’s xAI: FT reports Sam Altman-led group wants exclusive arrangement as it secures $6.6bn funding round.
OpenAI feels competitors breathing down its neck: Latest funding round has boosted the company’s valuation to $150bn, but it faces formidable challenges. Richard Waters
Why concerns about OpenAI’s new logo are about more than design: Can a simple circle really be ‘ominous’? The ChatGPT creator’s potential logo change is a brand Rorschach test. FC
CNBC: For Nvidia, spatial AI and the ‘omniverse’ entering physical world may be the next big thing
Did Apple just kill social apps? Some app makers worry that a subtle change to the iPhone’s contact-sharing permissions could make it hard for them to get the fast growth they need to compete. NYT
Amazon to increase number of advertisements on Prime Video: FT reports the e-commerce group attempting to win over more brands as it steps up push into ad-funded streaming services in 2025.
Apple rolls back its big plans to release movies in theaters: Bloomberg reports the tech giant intended to spend $1 billion annually on films for cinemas. After several box office disappointments, it’s shifting releases like Wolfs back to its streaming service.
Empty rentals burn vacation-home owners near Florida’s Disney World: To stand out in a cooling market, landlords are spending $150,000 in Mickey Mouse and Harry Potter decor. Bloomberg
Toyota to delay US EV production to 2026 on slowing sales: Nikkei reports Japanese automaker to review lineup of EVs to be made in North America.
Levi Strauss considers the sale of Dockers brand.
The end of the cheap burger: Fast-food chains might be dangling deals, but meat-eaters better prepare for a new, more expensive era for America’s favorite food. Bloomberg
After a decade, scientists unveil fly brain in stunning detail: Scientists have mapped out how 140,000 neurons are wired in the brain of the fruit fly, Drosophila melanogaster. NYT
*** Culture ***
Myha’la claims her name: An explosive Industry season 3 finale promises huge changes for Harper Stern. But with season 4, two new films, and a wedding in the future, the actress who plays her is making moves just as big. Elle
DC's last bike messengers: While DC’s once-ubiquitous couriers have been pushed to the brink of extinction, their culture and camaraderie endure—as does their impact on the city’s streets. Washingtonian
*** Sport ***
LVMH took over the Paris Olympics. Now it’s snagged Formula One. From Louis Vuitton trophy cases to Moët & Chandon on the podium, the luxury conglomerate is pulling out the stops with a 10-year sponsorship deal. WSJ
French luxury goods giant LVMH announces Formula One sponsorship: Le Monde reports Bernard Arnault, one of the world's richest men and CEO of the luxury group, known for brands like Louis Vuitton and Moet Hennessy, described the 10-year sponsorship deal as a 'great and unique partnership.'
Michael Jordan’s racing team files antitrust lawsuit against NASCAR: WSJ reports 23XI Racing is accusing the stock-car series of exploiting its power over teams to deny them a greater share of the sport’s revenue.
Miami Dolphins owner Stephen Ross is in advanced talks with private equity firm Ares Management and billionaire Joe Tsai to sell stakes in the NFL team and other assets at a valuation of $8.1 billion, according to people familiar with the transaction.
Gonzaga joins the Pac-12 as college sports realignment continues: WP reports the basketball powerhouse will leave the West Coast Conference in 2026.
Detroit Tigers secret is out: A rare team meeting sparked stunning MLB playoff surge DFP
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal