Caracal Daily | October 22
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Tuesday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
How Israel and Iran are waging war in the shadows: Tehran appears to be taking espionage lessons from the Mossad spy agency as it attempts to bribe vulnerable Israelis into betraying their country. The Times
Leaked documents show US intelligence on Israel’s plans to attack Iran, sources say: CNN reports the US is investigating a leak of highly classified US intelligence about Israel’s plans for retaliation against Iran, according to three people familiar with the matter. One of the people familiar confirmed the documents’ authenticity.
+ Israel reportedly gave the US a document last week which outlined its conditions to end the war in Lebanon.
+ The leak is “deeply concerning,” a US official told CNN.
Yahya Sinwar will hold sway over Hamas from beyond the grave: Will his death moderate or aggravate its bloody ethos? Economist
At odds over Middle East conflict, German and Turkish leaders cooperate on defence: AFP reports Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have been at odds over the Israel-Hamas war but found common ground during their talks in Istanbul on the issue of arms sales to Ankara.
Japan hopes electric cars were just a bad dream: A tale of two auto shows in Tokyo and Paris offers a surprising verdict about who’s better prepared for the future. David Fickling
Japan pressed by US Lawmakers to strengthen chip curbs on China: Bloomberg reports key US lawmakers urged Japan to strengthen restrictions on sales of chipmaking equipment to China, warning that if Tokyo fails to act, Washington could impose its own curbs on Japanese companies or bar toolmakers that sell to China from receiving US semiconductor subsidies.
Taiwan is “very open” to using new nuclear technology to meet surging demand from chipmakers devouring electricity in the AI boom.
How Beijing recruited New York Chinatowns for influence campaign: A congresswoman’s links to a Communist Party initiative ran through a local ‘hometown association.’ WSJ
Who thinks China’s not an economic powerhouse? China: One of the hottest topics at the upcoming global climate conference is whether China should still be considered “developing.” Bloomberg
China's economy grew at the slowest pace since early 2023 during the third quarter, as the property sector remains a drag.
China's booming grey markets add woes to luxury brands: Reuters reports China's second-hand and grey markets for luxury goods are booming, as price hikes from luxury brands in a weak economy are prompting some shoppers to look for cheaper ways to buy them, deepening concerns for the likes of LVMH.
Beijing bourse plans to help smaller tech companies to list: Reuters reports the Beijing Stock Exchange will help small and medium-sized tech companies with training and access to finance so they can list on the bourse, it said on Sunday, as part of government plans to foster innovation.
FT: Australia to spend $4.7bn on US missiles in naval upgrade
Inside the outback base being readied for war with China: A little-known airbase in Australia is being transformed by the US into a lethal spearhead, angering some in Canberra who fear it will become a target for attack. The Times
Why “The Rest Is Politics,” a British podcast, is a hit: Centrism and an old-fashioned approach to broadcasting are at its core. The Economist
Keir Starmer called for the NHS to be ‘reimagined’ as he launched a public consultation on the health service this morning.
Maia Sandu, Moldova’s president, blamed “foreign forces” for an “assault” on democracy after two important votes. With almost all votes counted, Moldova’s referendum to approve EU accession talks passed by a thin majority of 50.46%.
How Russia’s millions almost swayed Moldova to reject EU: The Putin regime doesn’t try to hide its meddling in other countries’ elections but the brazenness of its latest campaign was unusual even for the Kremlin. The Times
Only NATO can secure a ‘West German’ future for Ukraine: Accession to the EU needs to be complemented by the security alliance. Timothy Garton Ash
Saudi Arabia is preparing to begin construction work on its next giga-project: A cube-shaped skyscraper big enough to fit 20 Empire State Buildings. The Mukaab will be 400-meters on each side when construction is finished, which would make it the largest built structure in the world. The building will be the centerpiece of New Murabba, a community the country hopes will be a new destination within the capital city of Riyadh.
Nigeria blocked a deal by Shell to sell its onshore oil operations to a consortium of five local companies. But regulators approved a $1.3bn sale by ExxonMobil to Seplat, a Nigerian energy company, after a two-year delay.
Millions of Cubans remain in the dark amid a worsening power crisis: The collapse first hit Cuba’s western provinces, including the capital of Havana, on Friday, with no clear timeline for restoration. While the Antonio Guiteras power plant was brought back online over the weekend, its 500-megawatt output falls far short of the 3 gigawatts the island needs, and its output has dropped to 370 megawatts.
Cuba plunged into crisis by prolonged power blackouts: FT reports the president warns against ‘vandalism’ after fuel shortages exacerbate economic struggles.
Cuba’s government struggles to restore power after nationwide blackout: WSJ reports electricity outages have paralyzed an already-crippled economy, leading to shortages of everything from cash to running water.
A nationwide blackout, now a hurricane. How much can Cuba endure? The repeated failure of the power grid and a hurricane that has swamped the island’s eastern end has many Cubans fed up, posing a challenge to the Communist government. NYT
Mexican oil company Pemex has slowed spending in its exploration and production arm to save over $1 billion.
Canadian companies can request temporary relief from tariffs on imports of Chinese electric vehicles, steel and aluminum products, the country's finance ministry said on Friday. The measure is to help firms adjust their supply chains to cope with the new tariffs.
The United States will provide some $2 billion in grants to protect its aging power grid against the threat of extreme weather. The funding will go to 32 projects across the US and include bolstering some 950 miles of transmission lines.
DoD added "offensive" space operations in its updated doc laying out Space Force and Space Command responsibilities.
IMF and World Bank forced to shift gear as America’s power wanes: The institutions mark their 80th anniversaries this week but the spectres of Trump, Putin and Xi loom large over the annual meetings. Mehreen Khan
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Donald Trump is bringing the joy at just the right moment Freddy Gray
Why Donald Trump has moved ahead in our election forecast: With two weeks to go, the Republican candidate now has a slight lead. Economist
+ For the first time in two months, Donald Trump has taken the lead in The Economist's US election model, giving him a 54 in 100 chance of winning.
Trump flips stance on making voting easier after storm batters North Carolina: WP reports the former president’s campaign has pushed for changes that mirror the ones he attacked when implemented in 2020 amid the pandemic.
Republicans eat into Democrats’ early voting advantage: WSJ reports more than 15 million Americans have already voted, as both parties scour the data for clues on turnout.
Liz Cheney and Harris make a play for GOP women in ‘blue wall’ suburbs: NYT reports as the pair campaigned together in suburban areas of battleground states, the Republican former congresswoman served as Kamala Harris’s ambassador to conservative women.
‘I would rather be Kamala Harris than I would Donald Trump’: What Jim Messina, who guided Obama’s re-election, sees with two weeks left. Gabriel Debenedetti
Inside the Harris campaign’s blitz to win back Silicon Valley: The Democratic candidate is pulling out the stops to signal a less confrontational stance toward the tech sector, and it appears to be paying off. WP
US agencies fund, and fight with, Elon Musk. A Trump presidency could give him power over them. NYT
+ Pennsylvania's Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, called on law enforcement to investigate billionaire Elon Musk for his promise at a weekend pro-Trump rally to give away $1 million each day until Election Day.
The Music Man Trump’s kitschy nostalgia is the point. Sam Adler-Bell
Will Trump’s Detroit demonization cost him Michigan? Benjamin Hart
Cannabis reform gains bipartisan support ahead of election: WSJ reports both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have voiced support for easing restrictions around the drug and reclassifying it as a less dangerous substance.
IRS spending on artificial intelligence increased by over 700% in the last five years, Bloomberg Government contracting data found.
US prosecutors see rising threat of AI-generated child sex abuse imagery: Reuters reports US federal prosecutors are stepping up their pursuit of suspects who use artificial intelligence tools to manipulate or create child sex abuse images, as law enforcement fears the technology could spur a flood of illicit material.
$5 for a good online review? No way, says new FTC rule: Federal Trade Commission rule also bars brands from seeking clout by buying followers. WSJ
Can the media survive? Big tech, feckless owners, cord-cutters, restive staff, smaller audiences … and the return of print? NY Mag
New York Magazine, Olivia Nuzzi ‘part ways’ after RFK Jr. relationship: WSJ reports the magazine says an independent review found no inaccuracies or evidence of bias in Nuzzi’s work.
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
Microsoft boss urges rethink of copyright laws for AI: The Times reports Satya Nadella says rules must be clear for transformative technology.
The $14 billion question dividing OpenAI and Microsoft: The two companies have hired investment banks to help negotiate how much equity Microsoft gets when OpenAI becomes a for-profit company. WSJ
Microsoft has an OpenAI problem John Herrman
Who owns OpenAI? Matt Levine
Former OpenAI technology chief Mira Murati to raise capital for new AI startup, sources say: Reuters reports the new company aims to build AI products based on proprietary models, said one of the sources who requested anonymity to discuss private matters. It is not clear if Murati will assume the CEO role at the new venture.
Google DeepMind’s Demis Hassabis on his Nobel Prize: ‘It feels like a watershed moment for AI’: Founder of the artificial intelligence R&D lab says scientific understanding can prevent mis-steps in developing the technology. FT
Apple’s new iPad Mini highlights the company’s secret AI advantage: Bloomberg reports the company’s smallest iPad will have 8 gigabytes of memory and the same processor — the A17 Pro — as the iPhone 15 Pro line from last year. That gives it enough horsepower to support the new Apple Intelligence platform. And, considering that the new model doesn’t have other major new changes, it’s no surprise that Apple is heavily touting the AI capabilities.
+ Apple Intelligence won’t actually launch until about five days after the new iPad hits stores on Oct. 23. That means early buyers will need to install the software upgrade at home, potentially irking some customers.
Internal studies at Apple showed that OpenAI's ChatGPT was 25% more accurate and was able to answer 30% more questions than Siri.
Reuters: Meta releases AI model that can check other AI models' work
Reuters: Honeywell partners with Google to integrate data with generative AI
Wall Street Journal, New York Post sue AI startup Perplexity, alleging ‘massive freeriding’: WSJ reports in a copyright suit, News Corp titles say the AI firm is stealing content and revenue. News Corp is asking the court to block its use of the material.
Rupert Murdoch’s Dow Jones sues AI start-up Perplexity for infringement: FT reports publishers accuse company of ‘freeriding’ on valuable news content.
CNN: X changed its terms of service to let its AI train on everyone’s posts. Now users are up in arms
Elon Musk will take questions on his Tesla robotaxi plans on Wednesday.
Italian tech company Bending Spoons has eye on US for potential IPO: Reuters reports the head of Italy's Bending Spoons says Milan is a great location for a start-up but he would probably favour New York were the tech company that owns services such as note-taking tool Evernote and photo editor Remini to list. The Italian app developer, whose products count 200 million monthly users, is seen as a potential candidate for a public listing after a string of acquisitions this year, including file-sharing service WeTransfer in July.
Boeing and the union representing 33,000 striking members hammered out a tentative accord that notches up pay by an unprecedented 35% over four years.
Fidelity International will cut around 500 jobs at one of its Chinese operations, two people with knowledge of the matter said, marking the largest downsizing in recent years of a global financial firm in the world's second largest economy.
Moncler chief on defying China’s new normal to ‘build the strongest brand ever’: FT reports hot off investment from LVMH, Moncler wants to make greater inroads into the world’s second-largest economy.
Tripping on nothing: New, non-hallucinogenic versions of psychedelics are blurring the boundaries of the drug trip. Shayla Love
Ice-cream tubs of tampons and sunscreen from a whipped-cream can: Welcome to ‘Chaos Packaging’: Lesser-known brands try to grab shoppers’ attention with unexpected trappings. WSJ
Disney to spend $5bn in Europe on making new blockbusters: FT reports the regional chief says UK and continental Europe will play a big role in future box office and streaming hits.
Disney to name Bob Iger’s successor in early 2026: WSJ reports the company also tapped James Gorman as its new chairman, signaling to investors that the company’s succession process is advancing after turbulence.
Hugh Hefner’s son offers to buy Playboy brand for $100 million: WSJ reports Cooper Hefner, the youngest son of the Playboy founder, submitted an offer with an investor group.
TikTok is changing how Gen Z speaks: On social media new words spread far and fast. The Economist
Retail space is going fast and pushing out local shops: WSJ reports small businesses struggle to compete with national chains as rents rise.
The $2.5 billion plan to transform six historic blocks in South Beach: The balance of money and power in Miami is refocusing to where it all began. Bloomberg
*** Culture ***
Once you try a four-day workweek, It’s hard to go back: A six-month trial in Germany showed many promising signs. But there were disappointments, too. Bloomberg
Why celebrities stopped being cool: These days, the world’s biggest pop-cultural icons all want to be “relatable,” no matter how famous they get—but if stars are just like us, argues GQ columnist Chris Black, what’s the point of having stars? GQ
*** Sport ***
Ant and Dec were embroiled in Newcastle Utd takeover, leaked WhatsApps reveal: The Telegraph reports Ant and Dec became embroiled in the Saudi-led takeover of Newcastle United after the woman brokering the deal said the TV stars would “push it” on Twitter. Leaked WhatsApp messages show that businesswoman Amanda Staveley, who negotiated the purchase of the club, told the sellers that she would enlist the help of the Geordie duo, whose full names are Anthony McPartlin and Declan Donnelly.
+ Messages show how businesswoman Amanda Staveley enlisted help of Geordie duo to promote deal on social media
Yankees-Dodgers is charming, obnoxious and a baseball dream: Shohei Ohtani and the rest of the Dodgers are floating into a World Series too good to be true. Jerry Brewer
Drivers deserve better than Formula 1’s chaotic stewarding system: Debate over Lando Norris’s penalty in Austin and accusations of bias from Toto Wolff show lack of progress almost three years after Abu Dhabi 2021 – the sport needs a rethink. Molly Hudson
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Daily | October 21
Caracal Daily | October 21
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Monday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
Israel killed Sinwar by forcing him from the tunnels: WSJ reports the Israeli military attacked strategic underground complexes in Gaza, pushing Yahya Sinwar to leave the safety of Hamas’s labyrinth.
Israel, Hamas battle to define final images of Yahya Sinwar: WP reports while Israel is trying to portray images of his last moments as those of a fugitive, his supporters have seized on the same visuals to glorify him as a fighter.
Israel rehearses ‘major missile strike’ on Iran: The Times reports US satellite intelligence documents leaked to pro-Iranian social media accounts show Israel holding military drills for a big airborne attack.
Israel said it had arrested seven Israeli citizens after uncovering a long-standing operation to spy on sensitive military and energy installations on behalf of Iran.
Blinken to visit Israel in latest push for Gaza cease-fire: NYT reports Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken is expected to depart on Monday in a renewed effort to bring calm to the region. The State Department did not say which other countries he might stop in.
North Korea ‘sending troops to fight in Ukraine’: The Times reports a video of North Korean soldiers in Russia raises fears that weeks of Ukrainian warnings that the war is expanding may be true.
South Korea asks Russia to stop apparent North Korean troop deployment: FT reports Seoul calls in ambassador amid concerns about Pyongyang involvement in Ukraine conflict.
The foreigners fighting and dying for Vladimir Putin: Many were tricked into the war in Ukraine. The Economist
Russia turns Mariupol’s steel mills from battle zone to spoils of war: WSJ reports Moscow’s patronage enriches a Kremlin-friendly warlord from Chechnya by letting him plunder a big metals plant.
Amid uncertainty over US backing, Pentagon chief visits Ukraine: WP reports the trip comes just two weeks before an election that could determine whether the United States continues its campaign of
massive military support.
How Russia’s spies hacked the entire nation of Georgia: With an election this week, documents seen by Bloomberg expose the extent of Moscow’s infiltration of the former Soviet state. Bloomberg
Moldova referendum: Voters say yes to EU despite ‘Russian meddling’: The Times reports preliminary results suggest a narrow victory for President Sandu in the vote to embed European Union membership in the country’s constitution.
Moldovans back EU accession talks by razor-thin majority: FT reports President Maia Sandu had hoped for stronger support for her policy of closer integration with Europe.
Tuesday: Russia hosts a two-day BRICS summit in Kazan.
Putin’s plan to defeat the dollar: He hopes this week’s BRICS summit will spark a sanctions-busting big bang. The Economist
India + China have reached an agreement on patrolling arrangements along their disputed border, according to a senior Indian official, paving the way for an easing of tensions between the two Asian giants.
China + India agreed to allow each others’ troops to patrol the disputed border between the two countries, a significant step toward ending a four-year stalemate as leaders from both nuclear-armed nations possibly meet at a BRICS summit this week.
Threat of Chinese overcapacity looms over memory chips: WSJ reports vital technology component could be next industry to grapple with abundance from Asian country.
Why Chinese are rushing into a ‘casino’ stock market: Steps to bolster the economy have set off a stock buying frenzy. Our columnist spoke to Chinese investors about why they are jumping in knowing the risks. NYT
Does China welcome—or dread—an Iran-Israel war? It wants American interests to suffer, but not at any price. The Economist
Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia’s president, who took office on Sunday, unveiled his new cabinet. Around one third of the members were part of the administration of his predecessor, Joko Widodo, better known as Jokowi.
New Zealand’s biggest pivot since the 1980s: An interview with Christopher Luxon, the prime minister reshaping its foreign policy. The Economist
Australian senator heckles Charles: ‘You are not my king’: WP reports indigenous lawmaker Lidia Thorpe was removed from an event at Australia’s Parliament after accusing the British royal family of “genocide” and stealing land.
King Charles heckled by Australian senator: ‘Give us our land back’: The Times reports Lidia Thorpe, an indigenous senator, shouted ‘you are not my king’ after the monarch’s address to parliament in Canberra. Charles and Camilla appeared to take no notice.
Who is Lidia Thorpe? Australian senator who heckled King Charles: The native Australian has caused controversy by campaigning against the ‘colonizing’ monarchy and refusing to stand in front of the national flag. The Times
Keir Starmer flies to Samoa to answer tricky questions from Commonwealth allies: FT reports slavery reparations and Britain’s shrinking aid budget up for debate at annual summit this week.
Scatter and survive: Inside a US military shift to deny China ‘big, juicy’ targets: America is upgrading far-off runways and reviving World War II airfields to counter the threat of China’s enormous missile arsenal. WSJ
Crises at Boeing and Intel are a national emergency: The two companies once set the standard for world-class engineering and manufacturing. Their troubles weaken America. Greg Ip
Wanted: Weekend warriors in tech: A new Defense Department initiative would recruit Silicon Valley’s top technical minds to join the reserves as officers. WSJ
Power, as well as price, matters in a well-run economy: That’s the lesson to take from both the founding of the Bretton Woods system 80 years ago and the Biden administration today. Rana Foroohar
The election is a referendum on America’s role in the world: The post-World War II international order is hanging in the balance. Max Boot
What the world thinks of Harris versus Trump: Strongman leaders around the globe would welcome a victory for the Republican former president. Gideon Rachman
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Donald Trump takes the lead, as polls swing away from Kamala Harris: The Economist reports that for the first time in two months, Donald Trump has taken the lead in their model, giving him a 54 in 100 chance of winning the election.
Candidates step up attacks after Trump erases Harris’s lead: WSJ reports with two weeks to go, the vice president courts GOP-leaning voters in swing states, while the former president’s off-script moments play to core supporters.
US election: Harris and Trump make it personal in final fortnight: The Times reports that the vice president has stepped up her attacks on Donald Trump’s mental fitness, but she faces accusations of hypocrisy after campaigning for President Biden’s re-election.
Bloomberg: Harris and Trump scrap for few undecided voters as race tightens
Harris and Trump locked in dead heat in poll of seven battleground states: WP reports the Post-Schar School survey also focuses on a group of registered voters who have not been firmly committed to any candidate. The new results show changes among this group.
Inside the last-ditch hunt by Harris and Trump for undecided voters: NYT reports both campaigns are digging through troves of data to find these crucial Americans. They both think many are younger, Black or Latino. The Harris team is also eyeing white, college-educated women.
A Pennsylvania road trip finds voters full of doubt, anger and unease: The Post drove 1,000 miles talking to voters in the most critical battleground state and found worries about Harris, fears about Trump and uncertainty all over. WP
Democrats dream of a Blue Texas. What will they wake up to in November? If Texas flips, it would change everything. But the longstanding prophecy has never quite come true. WP
Montana becomes crucial battleground for control of Congress: State unaccustomed to national attention contends with blizzard of political advertising over key Senate race. FT
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
Bloomberg: Apple CEO Tim Cook’s other job: Helping Nike turn things around
Tim Cook on why Apple’s huge bets will pay off: The CEO of the world’s most valuable company led two of the biggest product launches of his tenure this year—and believes they will be as life-changing for the rest of us as they are for him. WSJ
Axios interview: DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis sees "watershed moment" for AI Axios
AI search start-up Perplexity targets $8bn valuation in new funding round: FT reports investor frenzy over artificial intelligence continues after OpenAI valued at $150bn in latest fundraising.
AI and robots take center stage at ‘world’s largest tech event’: CNN reports a year after Collins Dictionary named “AI” its word of the year, the buzz around artificial intelligence is only getting louder. AI and robotics were the big themes at Gitex Global, which bills itself as the world’s largest tech event and ran Monday to Friday last week at Dubai’s World Trade Centre.
Microsoft’s AI bots can pick up office workers’ tedious tasks: The technology behemoth is rolling out its ‘autonomous agents’ that are set to transform the workplace. The Times
CNBC: Microsoft to roll out new autonomous AI agents next month, fending off challenge from Salesforce
Microsoft is launching a set of artificial intelligence tools designed to send emails, manage records, and take other actions on behalf of business workers, expanding an AI push that intensifies competition with rivals like Salesforce Inc.
Microsoft signs deal with Whitehall: The Times reports the product agreement with the government follows the tech group’s UK boss being appointed an adviser on industrial strategy.
Reuters: IBM releases new AI models for businesses as genAI competition heats up
TikTok owner, ByteDance, says it has sacked an intern for "maliciously interfering" with the training of one of its artificial intelligence (AI) models.
AI detectors falsely accuse students of cheating—with big consequences: About two-thirds of teachers report regularly using tools for detecting AI-generated content. At that scale, even tiny error rates can add up quickly. Bloomberg
Bloomberg: TSMC's dominance is starting to worry more than just rivals
So long, suburbia! Townhouses should be the new American Dream. Americans are desperate for more affordable and low-maintenance housing options. WP
Bloomberg: Decade of big S&P 500 gains is over, Goldman strategists say
US consumers are planning shorter winter holiday trips and booking cheaper accommodations in a sign of how years of inflation continue to hammer family budgets.
*** Culture ***
Stanley Tucci doesn’t think sweatpants should be worn in public: The actor and author of the new book ‘What I Ate in One Year’ talks about the perfect pasta dish, the one ingredient he can’t stand and ‘The Devil Wears Prada’ sequel rumors. WSJ
The horrors of the reply-all email thread: Easy to start, impossible to stop. The Economist
*** Sport ***
They were the team left for dead. Now they’re WNBA champions. A few seasons ago, the New York Liberty were left in a rinky-dink arena far outside the five boroughs. On Sunday, they won the WNBA title. Jason Gay
WP: Dodgers advance to World Series, setting up a star-studded matchup with the Yankees
NYT: After 43 years, Yankees and Dodgers resume their World Series rivalry
TA: Charles Leclerc wins F1 US Grand Prix, Lando Norris loses podium to late penalty
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal