Caracal Daily | October 22

Caracal Daily | October 22

Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.

Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.

Always Be Communicating.

Happy Tuesday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

How Israel and Iran are waging war in the shadows: Tehran appears to be taking espionage lessons from the Mossad spy agency as it attempts to bribe vulnerable Israelis into betraying their country. The Times

Leaked documents show US intelligence on Israel’s plans to attack Iran, sources say: CNN reports the US is investigating a leak of highly classified US intelligence about Israel’s plans for retaliation against Iran, according to three people familiar with the matter. One of the people familiar confirmed the documents’ authenticity.

+ Israel reportedly gave the US a document last week which outlined its conditions to end the war in Lebanon.

+ The leak is “deeply concerning,” a US official told CNN.

Yahya Sinwar will hold sway over Hamas from beyond the grave: Will his death moderate or aggravate its bloody ethos? Economist

At odds over Middle East conflict, German and Turkish leaders cooperate on defence: AFP reports Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have been at odds over the Israel-Hamas war but found common ground during their talks in Istanbul on the issue of arms sales to Ankara. 

Japan hopes electric cars were just a bad dream: A tale of two auto shows in Tokyo and Paris offers a surprising verdict about who’s better prepared for the future. David Fickling

Japan pressed by US Lawmakers to strengthen chip curbs on China: Bloomberg reports key US lawmakers urged Japan to strengthen restrictions on sales of chipmaking equipment to China, warning that if Tokyo fails to act, Washington could impose its own curbs on Japanese companies or bar toolmakers that sell to China from receiving US semiconductor subsidies.

Taiwan is “very open” to using new nuclear technology to meet surging demand from chipmakers devouring electricity in the AI boom.

How Beijing recruited New York Chinatowns for influence campaign: A congresswoman’s links to a Communist Party initiative ran through a local ‘hometown association.’ WSJ

Who thinks China’s not an economic powerhouse? China: One of the hottest topics at the upcoming global climate conference is whether China should still be considered “developing.” Bloomberg

China's economy grew at the slowest pace since early 2023 during the third quarter, as the property sector remains a drag. 

China's booming grey markets add woes to luxury brands: Reuters reports China's second-hand and grey markets for luxury goods are booming, as price hikes from luxury brands in a weak economy are prompting some shoppers to look for cheaper ways to buy them, deepening concerns for the likes of LVMH.

Beijing bourse plans to help smaller tech companies to list: Reuters reports the Beijing Stock Exchange will help small and medium-sized tech companies with training and access to finance so they can list on the bourse, it said on Sunday, as part of government plans to foster innovation.

FT: Australia to spend $4.7bn on US missiles in naval upgrade

Inside the outback base being readied for war with China: A little-known airbase in Australia is being transformed by the US into a lethal spearhead, angering some in Canberra who fear it will become a target for attack. The Times

Why “The Rest Is Politics,” a British podcast, is a hit: Centrism and an old-fashioned approach to broadcasting are at its core. The Economist

Keir Starmer called for the NHS to be ‘reimagined’ as he launched a public consultation on the health service this morning.

Maia Sandu, Moldova’s president, blamed “foreign forces” for an “assault” on democracy after two important votes. With almost all votes counted, Moldova’s referendum to approve EU accession talks passed by a thin majority of 50.46%.

How Russia’s millions almost swayed Moldova to reject EU: The Putin regime doesn’t try to hide its meddling in other countries’ elections but the brazenness of its latest campaign was unusual even for the Kremlin. The Times

Only NATO can secure a ‘West German’ future for Ukraine: Accession to the EU needs to be complemented by the security alliance. Timothy Garton Ash

Saudi Arabia is preparing to begin construction work on its next giga-project: A cube-shaped skyscraper big enough to fit 20 Empire State Buildings. The Mukaab will be 400-meters on each side when construction is finished, which would make it the largest built structure in the world. The building will be the centerpiece of New Murabba, a community the country hopes will be a new destination within the capital city of Riyadh.

Nigeria blocked a deal by Shell to sell its onshore oil operations to a consortium of five local companies. But regulators approved a $1.3bn sale by ExxonMobil to Seplat, a Nigerian energy company, after a two-year delay.

Millions of Cubans remain in the dark amid a worsening power crisis: The collapse first hit Cuba’s western provinces, including the capital of Havana, on Friday, with no clear timeline for restoration. While the Antonio Guiteras power plant was brought back online over the weekend, its 500-megawatt output falls far short of the 3 gigawatts the island needs, and its output has dropped to 370 megawatts.

Cuba plunged into crisis by prolonged power blackouts: FT reports the president warns against ‘vandalism’ after fuel shortages exacerbate economic struggles.

Cuba’s government struggles to restore power after nationwide blackout: WSJ reports electricity outages have paralyzed an already-crippled economy, leading to shortages of everything from cash to running water.

A nationwide blackout, now a hurricane. How much can Cuba endure? The repeated failure of the power grid and a hurricane that has swamped the island’s eastern end has many Cubans fed up, posing a challenge to the Communist government. NYT

Mexican oil company Pemex has slowed spending in its exploration and production arm to save over $1 billion.

Canadian companies can request temporary relief from tariffs on imports of Chinese electric vehicles, steel and aluminum products, the country's finance ministry said on Friday. The measure is to help firms adjust their supply chains to cope with the new tariffs.  

The United States will provide some $2 billion in grants to protect its aging power grid against the threat of extreme weather. The funding will go to 32 projects across the US and include bolstering some 950 miles of transmission lines.  

DoD added "offensive" space operations in its updated doc laying out Space Force and Space Command responsibilities.

IMF and World Bank forced to shift gear as America’s power wanes: The institutions mark their 80th anniversaries this week but the spectres of Trump, Putin and Xi loom large over the annual meetings. Mehreen Khan

***  US Politics + Elections ***

Donald Trump is bringing the joy at just the right moment Freddy Gray

Why Donald Trump has moved ahead in our election forecast: With two weeks to go, the Republican candidate now has a slight lead. Economist

+ For the first time in two months, Donald Trump has taken the lead in The Economist's US election model, giving him a 54 in 100 chance of winning.

Trump flips stance on making voting easier after storm batters North Carolina: WP reports the former president’s campaign has pushed for changes that mirror the ones he attacked when implemented in 2020 amid the pandemic.

Republicans eat into Democrats’ early voting advantage: WSJ reports more than 15 million Americans have already voted, as both parties scour the data for clues on turnout.

Liz Cheney and Harris make a play for GOP women in ‘blue wall’ suburbs: NYT reports as the pair campaigned together in suburban areas of battleground states, the Republican former congresswoman served as Kamala Harris’s ambassador to conservative women.

‘I would rather be Kamala Harris than I would Donald Trump’: What Jim Messina, who guided Obama’s re-election, sees with two weeks left. Gabriel Debenedetti

Inside the Harris campaign’s blitz to win back Silicon Valley: The Democratic candidate is pulling out the stops to signal a less confrontational stance toward the tech sector, and it appears to be paying off. WP

US agencies fund, and fight with, Elon Musk. A Trump presidency could give him power over them. NYT

+ Pennsylvania's Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, called on law enforcement to investigate billionaire Elon Musk for his promise at a weekend pro-Trump rally to give away $1 million each day until Election Day.

The Music Man Trump’s kitschy nostalgia is the point. Sam Adler-Bell

Will Trump’s Detroit demonization cost him Michigan? Benjamin Hart

Cannabis reform gains bipartisan support ahead of election: WSJ reports both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have voiced support for easing restrictions around the drug and reclassifying it as a less dangerous substance.

IRS spending on artificial intelligence increased by over 700% in the last five years, Bloomberg Government contracting data found.

US prosecutors see rising threat of AI-generated child sex abuse imagery: Reuters reports US federal prosecutors are stepping up their pursuit of suspects who use artificial intelligence tools to manipulate or create child sex abuse images, as law enforcement fears the technology could spur a flood of illicit material.

$5 for a good online review? No way, says new FTC rule: Federal Trade Commission rule also bars brands from seeking clout by buying followers. WSJ

Can the media survive? Big tech, feckless owners, cord-cutters, restive staff, smaller audiences … and the return of print? NY Mag

New York Magazine, Olivia Nuzzi ‘part ways’ after RFK Jr. relationship: WSJ reports the magazine says an independent review found no inaccuracies or evidence of bias in Nuzzi’s work.

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

Microsoft boss urges rethink of copyright laws for AI: The Times reports Satya Nadella says rules must be clear for transformative technology.

The $14 billion question dividing OpenAI and Microsoft: The two companies have hired investment banks to help negotiate how much equity Microsoft gets when OpenAI becomes a for-profit company. WSJ

Microsoft has an OpenAI problem John Herrman

Who owns OpenAI? Matt Levine

Former OpenAI technology chief Mira Murati to raise capital for new AI startup, sources say: Reuters reports the new company aims to build AI products based on proprietary models, said one of the sources who requested anonymity to discuss private matters. It is not clear if Murati will assume the CEO role at the new venture.

Google DeepMind’s Demis Hassabis on his Nobel Prize: ‘It feels like a watershed moment for AI’: Founder of the artificial intelligence R&D lab says scientific understanding can prevent mis-steps in developing the technology. FT

Apple’s new iPad Mini highlights the company’s secret AI advantage: Bloomberg reports the company’s smallest iPad will have 8 gigabytes of memory and the same processor — the A17 Pro — as the iPhone 15 Pro line from last year. That gives it enough horsepower to support the new Apple Intelligence platform. And, considering that the new model doesn’t have other major new changes, it’s no surprise that Apple is heavily touting the AI capabilities.

+ Apple Intelligence won’t actually launch until about five days after the new iPad hits stores on Oct. 23. That means early buyers will need to install the software upgrade at home, potentially irking some customers.

Internal studies at Apple showed that OpenAI's ChatGPT was 25% more accurate and was able to answer 30% more questions than Siri.

Reuters: Meta releases AI model that can check other AI models' work

Reuters: Honeywell partners with Google to integrate data with generative AI

Wall Street Journal, New York Post sue AI startup Perplexity, alleging ‘massive freeriding’: WSJ reports in a copyright suit, News Corp titles say the AI firm is stealing content and revenue. News Corp is asking the court to block its use of the material.

Rupert Murdoch’s Dow Jones sues AI start-up Perplexity for infringement: FT reports publishers accuse company of ‘freeriding’ on valuable news content.

CNN: X changed its terms of service to let its AI train on everyone’s posts. Now users are up in arms

Elon Musk will take questions on his Tesla robotaxi plans on Wednesday.

Italian tech company Bending Spoons has eye on US for potential IPO: Reuters reports the head of Italy's Bending Spoons says Milan is a great location for a start-up but he would probably favour New York were the tech company that owns services such as note-taking tool Evernote and photo editor Remini to list. The Italian app developer, whose products count 200 million monthly users, is seen as a potential candidate for a public listing after a string of acquisitions this year, including file-sharing service WeTransfer in July.

Boeing and the union representing 33,000 striking members hammered out a tentative accord that notches up pay by an unprecedented 35% over four years.

Fidelity International will cut around 500 jobs at one of its Chinese operations, two people with knowledge of the matter said, marking the largest downsizing in recent years of a global financial firm in the world's second largest economy.

Moncler chief on defying China’s new normal to ‘build the strongest brand ever’: FT reports hot off investment from LVMH, Moncler wants to make greater inroads into the world’s second-largest economy.

Tripping on nothing: New, non-hallucinogenic versions of psychedelics are blurring the boundaries of the drug trip. Shayla Love

Ice-cream tubs of tampons and sunscreen from a whipped-cream can: Welcome to ‘Chaos Packaging’: Lesser-known brands try to grab shoppers’ attention with unexpected trappings. WSJ

Disney to spend $5bn in Europe on making new blockbusters: FT reports the regional chief says UK and continental Europe will play a big role in future box office and streaming hits.

Disney to name Bob Iger’s successor in early 2026: WSJ reports the company also tapped James Gorman as its new chairman, signaling to investors that the company’s succession process is advancing after turbulence.

Hugh Hefner’s son offers to buy Playboy brand for $100 million: WSJ reports Cooper Hefner, the youngest son of the Playboy founder, submitted an offer with an investor group.

TikTok is changing how Gen Z speaks: On social media new words spread far and fast. The Economist

Retail space is going fast and pushing out local shops: WSJ reports small businesses struggle to compete with national chains as rents rise.

The $2.5 billion plan to transform six historic blocks in South Beach: The balance of money and power in Miami is refocusing to where it all began. Bloomberg

*** Culture ***

Once you try a four-day workweek, It’s hard to go back: A six-month trial in Germany showed many promising signs. But there were disappointments, too. Bloomberg

Why celebrities stopped being cool: These days, the world’s biggest pop-cultural icons all want to be “relatable,” no matter how famous they get—but if stars are just like us, argues GQ columnist Chris Black, what’s the point of having stars? GQ

*** Sport ***

Ant and Dec were embroiled in Newcastle Utd takeover, leaked WhatsApps reveal: The Telegraph reports Ant and Dec became embroiled in the Saudi-led takeover of Newcastle United after the woman brokering the deal said the TV stars would “push it” on Twitter. Leaked WhatsApp messages show that businesswoman Amanda Staveley, who negotiated the purchase of the club, told the sellers that she would enlist the help of the Geordie duo, whose full names are Anthony McPartlin and Declan Donnelly. 

+ Messages show how businesswoman Amanda Staveley enlisted help of Geordie duo to promote deal on social media

Yankees-Dodgers is charming, obnoxious and a baseball dream: Shohei Ohtani and the rest of the Dodgers are floating into a World Series too good to be true. Jerry Brewer

Drivers deserve better than Formula 1’s chaotic stewarding system: Debate over Lando Norris’s penalty in Austin and accusations of bias from Toto Wolff show lack of progress almost three years after Abu Dhabi 2021 – the sport needs a rethink. Molly Hudson


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal