Caracal Daily | October 23

Caracal Daily | October 23

Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.

Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.

Always Be Communicating.

Happy Tuesday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

Not picking sides is paying off for these countries: More than 100 nations are embracing a new kind of geopolitical neutrality. For many, it’s working. Bloomberg

Israel’s once-fringe movement to reoccupy Gaza gains momentum: WSJ reports populating the strip with Jewish settlers and soldiers would boost security, supporters say, but it still faces opposition from most Israelis.

Blinken presses Netanyahu on dire conditions in northern Gaza: WP reports the secretary of state questioned the Israeli leader about a plan backed by some officials to gain control of the north by starving out or killing Palestinians currently there.

US Secretary of State urges Netanyahu to reach Gaza truce: Le Monde reports Secretary of State Antony Blinken, while in Israel on his 11th trip to the region since the October 7 attack. According to a UN report, it could take 350 years for Gaza to rebuild if it remains under a blockade.

FBI confirms probe into leak of top-secret documents about Israeli strike plans: WSJ reports the reports began circulating online last week, raising concerns the leaker came from within the US government.

Bloomberg: Kim Jong Un visits ICBM base weeks ahead of US election

+ Kim says US nuclear assets pose ever-increasing threat

+ Pyongyang’s last ICBM test was conducted in December 2023

North Korean troops train in Russia as Moscow deepens war coalition: WSJ reports South Korea’s intelligence agency said that Pyongyang had sent around 1,500 troops to train in eastern Russia.

North Korea is sending thousands of soldiers to help Vladimir Putin: It shows how far Russia has fallen as a strategic power. Economist

Zelensky sees NATO momentum on Ukraine joining, but not yet from US: WP reports Ukraine sees joining NATO as a vital security guarantee to protect it from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plans to take over the country.

US officials say Russia smeared Tim Walz and might stoke post-vote violence: WP reports faked content posted on social media drew millions of views, falsely tarring the Minnesota governor ahead of Nov. 5.

German spy aircraft to fly from the UK in new defense deal: The Times reports the German navy will use RAF Lossiemouth to hunt for Russian submarines while the countries work together on a long-range weapon that can target Moscow.

Britain and Germany agree on new defense pact as Russia threat rises: NYT reports the two governments said they will coordinate more on defense, with British and German troops conducting joint military exercises on NATO’s eastern border.

UK and Germany to sign a defense pact to counter Russia's threat: Le Monde reports defense ministers from Britain and Germany will sign the agreement in London on Wednesday.

BRICS summit: Putin hosts Xi and Modi in power play with West: The Times reports leaders from ten countries gathered in Kazan as the Kremlin looks to strengthen its anti-western alliance.

China pushes for BRICS expansion to legitimize its vision of a new world order: Le Monde reports through the BRICS and other international organizations it dominates, China has been strengthening its ties with 'Global South' countries, and offering an alternative to the US-dominated world order.

Seeking to elude sanctions, Putin and Xi promise ‘a just world order’: NYT reports the Russian leader wants to cast himself as a global statesman, even as the US and its Western allies try to isolate him.

Bloomberg: Xi, Modi to hold first talks in two years after border deal

+ India’s foreign secretary confirms upcoming Wednesday meeting

+ Beijing and New Delhi reached deal on border patrols this week

What deal on China-India border dispute means for ties Bloomberg

Why Xi Jinping changed his mind on China’s fiscal stimulus: After resisting calls to intervene, Beijing has made a sudden U-turn. But will the package be enough to get the economy back on track? FT

Xi Jinping tightens stranglehold on China’s academia: Scholars fired or disappeared as Beijing clamps down on discussion of sensitive topics including economy. FT

Bloomberg: Apple’s Tim Cook visits China, talks data security with minister

+ Beijing urges Apple to add investments in the country

+ China has tightened control over flow of data in recent years

Kazakhstan's Caspian Sea is drying up, with disastrous consequences: The Caspian Sea's water levels have dropped over the past 20 years, especially in the north, shared by Russia and Kazakhstan. The decline threatens biodiversity, and severely impacts the Kazakh fishing, transport, tourism and even hydrocarbon sectors. Le Monde

Indonesia’s macho new leader is no “cuddly grandpa”: Prabowo Subianto has fought back from years of disgrace and exile. Economist

Giorgia Meloni would make Machiavelli proud: Italy’s prime minister is far more popular than Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz. Economist

An assisted-dying bill is again introduced to Westminster: Econmist reports this time there is a good chance it will pass.

The new era of hacktivism: This form of online activism, popularized by Anonymous, has been making a strong comeback in recent years. Its growth has notably been driven by governments, who see it as an ideal way of operating undercover. Le Monde

WP: Alejandro Toledo joins list of Peruvian presidents imprisoned for graft

In the Dominican Republic, mass migrant expulsions turn into a 'hunt for Haitians': Le Monde reports on October 2, the Dominican government announced a campaign to expel 10,000 immigrants a week. It's aimed primarily at the country's large Haitian community, but concerns are being raised over the growing number of arrests deemed arbitrary.

Blackouts in Cuba highlight the island’s extreme energy fragility: The failure of a decrepit, oil-burning power system has plunged Cubans into darkness and misery. Economist

The Conquista, a source of pride and shame: A dispute with Mexico, which demands an apology from the King of Spain, controversy over the meaning of the national holiday, and decolonization within national museums... Spain is entangled in the legacy of the conquest of the Americas. Le Monde

Despite global crises, gas prices slide as US election near: NYT reports fuel prices, which had soared after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have dropped to their lowest level since February.

Global fight against historic inflation surge is nearly over, says IMF: WP reports the fund also upgrades growth forecast for US economy, which remains the developed world’s best performer.

IMF warns of stock market sell-off risk as geopolitical tensions rise: The Times reports investors complacent about the threat to asset prices from conflicts.

The global economy has proved surprisingly resilient: But significant downside risks will continue to pose a challenge for policymakers. Martin Wolf

***  US Politics + Elections ***

Kamala Harris narrowly leads Donald Trump in Times poll: The Times reports YouGov survey two weeks before the 2024 US election reveals the Democrat is ahead nationally — but within the margin of error, and her Republican rival has the edge on several key issues.

Trump calls Harris 'lazy as hell,' VP says US is ready for its first woman president: Le Monde reports with 14 days before Election Day, VP Kamala Harris was spending Tuesday in meetings in Washington, DC, and was scheduled to record TV interviews. The former Republican president was campaigning in North Carolina.

Trump campaign accuses ‘far-left’ Labour of election interference: The Times reports the complaint was filed with the Federal Election Commission against British volunteers campaigning for Kamala Harris in battleground states.

Donald Trump accuses UK Labour party of interference in White House race: FT reports the Republican ex-president files legal complaint with US’s federal election authority.

Yelp disables comments for McDonald’s where Trump donned apron: NYT reports the consumer review site temporarily disabled comments on the franchise’s page after the former president’s appearance prompted a flurry of reviews.

As election nears, Kelly warns Trump would rule like a dictator: NYT reports John Kelly, the Trump White House’s longest-serving chief of staff, said that he believed that Donald Trump met the definition of a fascist.

Donald Trump's ex-chief of staff John Kelly says he is a fascist and would govern as a dictator: FT reports the four-star US General John Kelly's claims were reported in blockbuster comments to The New York Times.

Biden quickly backtracks after saying Trump should be locked up: NYT reports the president appeared to slip by suggesting he wanted his predecessor put behind bars, but revised his comment to say he meant locked up “politically.”

Reuters: JPMorgan chief Dimon would consider a role in Harris administration, NYT reports

WSJ: Bill Gates privately donates $50 million to Harris

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

More than 10,500 actors, musicians, and authors protest tech’s AI data grab: An open letter from Thom Yorke, Julianne Moore and otherscalls unlicensed data scraping a threat to their livelihood. WP

Björn Ulvaeus and Thom Yorke among 11,000 artists warning of AI threats: The letter says unlicensed use of creative works to train models poses a major threat to creators’ livelihoods. FT

Anthropic’s new AI tool analyzes your screen and acts on your behalf: Bloomberg reports the new capability can interpret what a user is seeing on their computer and complete tasks online for them.

Anthropic says latest AI model can control users’ computers: FT reports the start-up backed by Google and Amazon says tool can act like a ‘human collaborator.’

AI-powered productivity tools that can make life harder: Technology used to summarise notes or generate transcripts does not always work for deaf employees. FT

OpenAI hires former White House official as its chief economist: NYT reports Aaron Chatterji was chief economist at the Commerce Department under President Biden and served on President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers.

The AI power grab: Big tech companies say AI can help solve climate change, even as it’s driving up their emissions and raising doubts about their climate goals. NYT

Researchers say Arkansas may have 19M tons of lithium critical for battery power: The Hill reports researchers said in their article released last month in the journal Science Advances they had “calculated that there are 5.1 to 19 million tons of lithium in Smackover Formation brines in southern Arkansas,” making up “35 to 136% of the current US lithium resource estimate.”

Electric vehicles may be struggling. GM’s leader is still a believer. NYT reports Mary Barra, GM’s chief executive, said that the company had fixed battery-manufacturing problems and that its electric vehicles would soon be profitable.

Profits at General Motors rose by 15.5% year on year during the third quarter, exceeding analysts’ expectations. Sales of electric vehicles rose by 60%. 

Senior VW executive deported from China: FT reports the expulsion of chief marketing officer is latest blow to German carmaker in world’s largest auto market.

L’Oréal sales disappoint due to weak Chinese demand: FT reports revenue at world’s biggest beauty company grew 3.4 percent in third quarter, when analysts expected 6 percent

WSJ: Frontier, Spirit Airlines revive merger talks

Bloomberg: NASA’s search for alien life turns to icy moon of Jupiter

+ Probe will investigate subsurface ocean on Jovian moon Europa

+ Agency’s $5.2 billion project is scheduled to arrive in 2030

*** Culture ***

The essential Italian returns to America: The designer Giorgio Armani made a splashy comeback to celebrate his new store and residences in Manhattan. NYT

At the Louis Vuitton Foundation, pop art or the art of a new realism: The retrospective devoted to Tom Wesselmann and his contemporaries at the Parisian institution revisits the history of a movement that never stopped inventing. Le Monde

*** Sport ***

WP: LeBron and Bronny James make NBA history as first father-and-son duo

Victor Wembanyama, the face of an ever more French NBA: Le Monde reports the North American league's 2024-2025 season kicks off on Tuesday. Along with the Spurs star, the French contingent now includes Zaccharie Risacher and Alexandre Sarr, number one and two picks in the latest draft.


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal