Geopolitics @ Dawn | February 3

Today in geopolitical news and how comms pros should think and talk about it....

1. Trump's 2025 trade war: Donald Trump's aggressive trade policy marks a dramatic shift in US economic strategy, implementing broad 25% tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China. This unprecedented move threatens to disrupt established supply chains, potentially increasing consumer costs across automotive, energy, and consumer goods sectors, with estimates suggesting car prices alone could rise by $3,000.

2. World responds to Trump's 2025 trade war: The international response has been swift and coordinated, with Canada, Mexico, and the EU preparing targeted retaliatory measures. Canada's response is remarkably comprehensive, including trade countermeasures and symbolic actions like removing US products from liquor stores, signaling a significant deterioration in North American trade relations.

3. A new American foreign policy: Trump's foreign policy extends beyond trade, encompassing ambitious territorial demands, including suggestions about Canada becoming the 51st state, calls for control of the Panama Canal, and interests in Greenland. This pattern indicates a broader shift toward unilateral assertiveness in US foreign policy, creating tension with traditional allies.

4. Global technological competition is intensifying: Particularly in the AI and energy sectors. China's advances in fusion energy (the "artificial sun") and the emergence of DeepSeek in AI demonstrate that technological leadership is no longer exclusively Western, challenging traditional power dynamics and innovation models.

5. Germany votes: Germany is experiencing significant political upheaval, with mass protests against far-right influence drawing 160,000 people to Berlin. Meanwhile, the election campaign faces sophisticated disinformation campaigns from both Russian and US sources. This situation reflects broader challenges to democratic stability in Western nations.

Pro tip: Make sure you have a professional with expertise in geopolitical communications on your team. Such a pro will help you navigate geopolitical challenges related to your business objectives and confidently speak about this environment.

Caracal is here to help.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc