Angela Merkel, Brazil, Indonesia, Vietnam, IBM, Lewis Hamilton, Red Sox
Marc Ross Daily
October 29, 2018
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross
Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia
Marc Ross Daily = Business News at the Intersection of Globalization, Disruption, and Politics
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TOP FIVE
✔️ Angela Merkel won’t seek re-election as chairwoman of her party
✔️ Brazil goes hard right
✔️ Indonesia plane crash
✔️ Vietnam emerges as beneficiary of US-China trade war
✔️ Big Blue's Hail Mary
ROSS RANT
There are no millennials: Defining consumer habits, desires, and predilections by distinct generational cohorts makes sense if you are working in a selling environment marked more by mass commodity products (think Campbell Soup Company) and not today's direct to consumer marketplace of limited specialized products (think Jeni's Splendid Ice Creams).
Read more here: http://bit.ly/2CNer5
GEOECONOMICS
BFD: Angela Merkel won’t seek re-election as chairwoman of her conservative party after 18 years at the helm following poor showing in state elections in Germany - Merkel has told senior party officials that she would remain Chancellor.
Elections aren't scheduled until February 2022 but can happen if the grand coalition breaks and the government collapses - the party or coalition with the most representatives usually elects the chancellor.
UK budget: Philip Hammond, the chancellor, will deliver his budget statement in the House of Commons today. This will be the last UK budget before Brexit in March 2019.
Brexit to do list: With just five months to go to Brexit, the UK is under mounting pressure to replicate the 236 treaties that the EU has with 168 countries — so far it has managed 14.
Istanbul new airport, said to be one of the world’s biggest, opens.
Brazil goes hard right - like hard right: Jair Bolsonaro, a firebrand ex-army captain, won Brazil’s presidential election, putting him in position to join the growing ranks of populists across the world and shift Latin America’s largest nation sharply to the right.
Bolsonaro is the latest in a long line of populists riding a global wave of voter anger.
But, can he get anything done? He has no executive experience and Brazil has 30 parties active in their legislature.
No to Mexico City airport project: Mexicans who participated in a public consultation on the future of the Mexico City airport voted to cancel the $13.3 billion project. President-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador has said he would abide by the results of the vote, which isn’t legally binding. Cancellation of the current project, which is about one-third complete, involves the loss of more than $5 billion already spent and could lead holders of $6 billion in bonds issued to finance the work to demand immediate payment.
Indonesia plane crash: A Lion Air jetliner crashed into the Java Sea carrying 189 people shortly after takeoff Monday morning from Jakarta. The jet lost contact with air traffic controllers shortly after takeoff.
RMB: The renminbi is trading near multi-year lows and industrial profit growth has slowed. When will the yuan break 7?
China's benchmark index loses 3% on Monday, putting it down 10% in October and 24% in 2018.
China regulator to propose 50% cut to car purchase tax - good politics makes bad economics.
China tech: American policymakers are concerned that Beijing could use AI-powered facial recognition for domestic surveillance tools that could be exported to other authoritarian (or free market) regimes.
Vietnam emerges as a beneficiary of US-China trade war: Companies from both nations report loss of market share to the Southeast Asian nation.
Supply chain movements: More than 70 percent of US firms operating in southern China are considering delaying further investment there and moving some or all of their manufacturing to other countries as the trade war bites into profits, according to an American Chamber of Commerce in South China survey.
AMERICAN POLITICS
The poison of antisemitism and white nationalism must be confronted: Trump is not a happy warrior. He's not a proper leader. He has weaponized hate and division. He has weaponized hate and division that has been simmering for years and held back by leadership and shared values. He owns this culture of hate and division.
Trump's role as leader of the free world weakens by the hour.
"When Trump reps isolationists, he’s expressing the maxims of gold-standard paranoiacs: Protect what we have, and don’t get mixed up in trade or politics with anyone but your cronies." -- @page88
US economy:
- American apparel spending increased by most since 2005.
- Consumer sentiment remains near multi-year highs.
Can Brad get it done? Brad Parscale, the campaign manager for Trump’s planned re-election effort in 2020, has never run another political race of any kind. But he believes he is uniquely equipped to manage the potentially fractious relationships inside the president’s campaign.
At this point, why does anyone ask what Trump thinks about any serious, substantial, or significant issue of the day?
I can't imagine being a White House Correspondent.
ENTERPRISE
Big Blue's Hail Mary: IBM agreed to buy software-and-services company Red Hat for about $33 billion. This is the largest takeover in IBM's history set a move to accelerate the company's shift towards cloud computing.
Companies continue to look for scale with build, borrow, or buy strategies - build is the best.
Raise your hand if you know who Nick Clegg is? I am guessing six of you know. He's a former UK Deputy PM, leader of Liberal Dems, and a Remainer. He's now Facebook's head of global affairs and comms signaling the EU is the future of tech oversight.
NABE survey: The majority—81%—of respondents say that the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act has not caused their firms to change hiring or investment plans.
Twitter to remove 'like' tool in a bid to improve the quality of debate: Founder Jack Dorsey last week admitted at a Twitter event that he was not a fan of the heart-shaped button and that it would be getting rid of it “soon.”
CULTURE
Beastie Boys Book: Available tomorrow wherever books are sold. A panoramic experience that tells the story of Beastie Boys, a book as unique as the band itself—by band members ADROCK and Mike D, with contributions from Amy Poehler, Colson Whitehead, Spike Jonze, Wes Anderson, Luc Sante, and more.
Estate sale: Catherine Deneuve announced she will auction off her personal clothing collection designed by her friend Yves Saint Laurent, the late fashion icon.
SPORT
LCFC: Leicester City owner Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha, the Thai billionaire whose investment in the English soccer club led it to the most improbable championship in Premier League history, died in the helicopter crash on Saturday outside the stadium named after the duty-free retail giant that he founded. The club famously won the Premier League where it overcame 5,000-to-1 odds to win the 2015-16 title.
Red Sox win the World Series: The victory gave the Red Sox their fourth Series title in 15 years.
World Series 2019 odds:
Astros 6/1
Red Sox 6/1
Dodgers 7/1
Yankees 7/1
Cubs 10/1
Indians 10/1
Braves 12/1
Brewers 12/1
Cardinals 16/1
Nationals 16/1
Phillies 18/1
Tigers 200/1
New Jersey high school football participation drops: The 2017 high school football season featured nearly 1,700 fewer players than the year before, a downturn of 6.8 percent. Only three other states, Colorado, Montana and Oklahoma, had steeper drops.
You call yourself a fan? Los Angeles hosted a home game in five major sports Sunday. A phenomenon dubbed by some the “Super Sports Equinox” — Branimir Kvartuc and Doane Liu made it their mission to attend them all.
Lewis Hamilton wins fifth Formula One world title at Mexico Grand Prix. Hamilton's fifth title equals the great Juan Manuel Fangio and only two behind Michael Schumacher’s record.
