Venezuela, Isolationism, Netherlands, South Korea, Netflix, Sundance Film Festival
Caracal Global Daily
January 24, 2019
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross
Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia
Caracal Global Daily = News + Analysis at the Intersection of Globalization + Disruption + Politics
TOP FIVE
✔️ Venezuela now has two presidents
✔️ "democratization of space poses significant challenges for the United States"
✔️ A trucker’s guide to post-Brexit disruption
✔️ China expected to overtake the US as world’s largest retail market
✔️ Waiting on the four B's - Biden, Beto, Bernie and Bloomberg
ROSS RANT
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GLOBALIZATION
Venezuela now has two presidents dueling for control of country: Bloomberg reports, Juan Guaido says he is president of Venezuela. So too, of course, does Nicolas Maduro.
Venezuela: Trump has officially recognized Juan Guaido as the Interim President of Venezuela.
FT: US recognises opposition leader as Venezuela’s president
Canada and other countries join in pressuring the regime of Nicolás Maduro.
Guardian: Russia and key allies vow to stand by Maduro in Venezuela crisis
AFP: China 'opposes' foreign interference in Venezuelan crisis
I long suspected Venezuela would be Trump's first serious international crisis.
US to defy Maduro’s order for American diplomats to leave Venezuela within 72 hours: WP reports, a defiant President Nicolás Maduro moved to cut ties with the United States after the Trump administration recognized opposition leader Juan Guaidó as Venezuela's interim and rightful head of state.
Strategic opportunity: Russia and China are taking advantage of global political turmoil to expand their influence and undermine American goals, US intelligence agencies say. Changes in the “strategic environment” including attacks on Western democracy and isolationist tendencies within governments have become major challenges, according to their strategy document issued every four years.
US intelligence agencies see isolationism, weakening Western order as threats: LAT reports, a national intelligence strategy released Tuesday warns that growing isolationism and efforts to weaken Western alliances pose long-term threats to US security and are exacerbating challenges for American intelligence agencies. The 36-page analysis marks the latest sign of discord between the nation's spy services and President Trump. The intelligence community has repeatedly clashed with Trump in the past over the president’s pronouncements when they’ve conflicted with the agencies’ conclusions. The National Intelligence Strategy, which is intended to guide officials for the next four years, does not name Trump or directly criticize his “America first” policies or priorities.
“No longer a solely US domain, the democratization of space poses significant challenges for the United States."
"The ability of individuals and groups to have a larger impact than ever before—politically, militarily, economically, and ideologically—is undermining traditional institutions."
The world now: With populism ascendant, the WEF’s choice of ‘Globalisation 4.0’ as the theme of Davos 2019 sounds defiant. But the forum has survived over time by adapting to change.
Davos tiptoes around the questions of Big Tech governance: Techno-optimism appears out of touch with concerns over digital disruption.
FT - Editorial: If parliament cannot resolve Brexit, a new referendum is needed: MPs should extend Article 50 and test support for other exit options.
Majority of UK ports confess to little or no Brexit planning.
Hello Holland: The Dutch government is in talks with more than 250 British-based companies to lure them to the Netherlands after Brexit. In a sign of growing business anxiety at the gridlock in Westminster, Sony has become the latest company to announce that it is to shift its European base to the Netherlands.
A trucker’s guide to post-Brexit disruption: As fears grow of a return to customs checks, the FT follows a British driver on his tightly scheduled journey across the continent. https://on.ft.com/2Udr3sg
China says to have in-depth talks with US on economic, trade issues: Reuters reports, China and the United States will have in-depth discussions on economic and trade issues during Chinese Vice Premier Liu He's U.S. visit next week.
Michael Schuman: Forget the trade war. China is already in crisis: Even if the second-largest economy resolves the current slowdown, it will remain mired in a debt-driven slump.
China’s economy is not collapsing, regulatory official says: Government will respond to slowdown with fiscal, monetary measures, Fang Xinghai tells World Economic Forum.
5.3: China’s population grew by just 5.3 million people last year, as the number of births declined. It’s the lowest rate of population growth since the early 1960s.
BTW - Norway's population is 5 million - so is the population of South Carolina.
US and British conduct training in South China Sea: US and British navy ships conducted joint maneuvers in the South China this month in what they called a sign of their shared emphasis on regional peace and stability.
Canada’s China envoy: US extradition case for Huawei CFO isn’t a sure thing: WSJ reports, Ottawa’s ambassador to China spoke in Toronto this week about the American legal case to have Meng Wanzhou extradited
Bloomberg Innovation Index: World’s most innovative countries:
1. South Korea
2. Germany
3. Finland
4. Switzerland
5. Israel
6. Singapore
7. Sweden
8. United States
9. Japan
10. France
11. Denmark
12. Austria
13. Belgium
14. Ireland
15. Netherlands
DISRUPTION
E-commerce powers China to world’s top retail spot: China is expected to overtake the US this year to become the world’s largest retail market, propelled by the country’s three-decade economic boom that has spawned the top global e-commerce market By the end of this year, e-commerce will make up over a third of all retail sales in China, compared to around a tenth in the US.
Global luxury brands are going all out with their digital Chinese New Year campaigns to ring in the Year of the Pig.
Earth's tilt may exacerbate a melting Antarctic: Space.com reports, new research finds that over 30 million years of history, Antarctica's ice sheets responded most strongly to the angle of Earth's tilt on its axis when the ice extends into the oceans, interacting with currents that can bring warm water lapping at their margins and leading to increased melting.
POLITICS
SOTU: Trump delays his State of the Union address.
Don't worry DJT, we all know the state of our union.
Michael Cohen indefinitely postpones testimony to Congress: NYT reports, Michael D. Cohen, the former personal lawyer and fixer for President Trump, has indefinitely postponed his congressional testimony, his lawyer said in a statement on Wednesday. Mr. Cohen was scheduled to appear before the House Oversight Committee on Feb. 7 at the invitation of Representative Elijah Cummings, Democrat of Maryland and the chairman of the committee, but backed out because of ongoing threats against his family, his lawyer Lanny Davis said in a statement. He cited Mr. Trump’s verbal attacks on Mr. Cohen and some of his relatives.
US House votes overwhelmingly to bar US exit from NATO: The US House passed legislation Tuesday evening that seeks to bar President Donald Trump from withdrawing from NATO amid renewed concerns over his commitment to the 29-nation military pact.
NYT: Young voters keep moving to the left on social issues, Republicans included
According to a new study, members of Generation Z are more open to social change than older generations.
'AI' to hit hardest in US heartland and among less-skilled: study: Reuters reports, Midwestern states hit hardest by job automation in recent decades will be under the most pressure again as advances in artificial intelligence reshape the workplace, according to a new study by Brookings Institution researchers.
Bit player: The leading 2020 Democratic presidential contenders are mostly ignoring Trump as they launch their campaigns. The absence reflects a mix of Trump fatigue among some progressives and the more urgent need for candidates to distinguish themselves in a potentially crowded field.
NBC News: Waiting on the four B's - Biden, Beto, Bernie and Bloomberg
WP: Advisers to former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz are looking at him running as an independent for president in 2020
Former Ohio governor John Kasich, a 2016 Republican candidate for president, is also looking at the possibility of running as an independent candidate.
COMMERCE
Netflix has scored 15 Oscar nominations, including a coveted best picture nod for its film Roma, signaling that the streaming service is disrupting the silver screen the way it has television.
Burberry warns on impact of no-deal Brexit: UK fashion house says supply chain disruption could add millions in extra trade costs.
Renault Chief Executive and Chairman Carlos Ghosn has resigned.
Huawei struggles to counter claims it can spy for China: WSJ reports, the chairman of Huawei pushed back against claims his company conducts espionage for the Chinese government. But the U.S. says that Huawei’s very structure makes the company a potential tool for espionage and thus a security threat.
Reuters: US universities unplug from China's Huawei under pressure from Trump
Bing is no longer accessible in China.
CULTURE
Warren Buffett: “Really successful people say no to almost everything”: When Bill Gates first met Warren Buffett, their host, Gates’ mother, asked everyone around the table to share the single most important factor to their success. Gates and Buffett both gave the same one-word answer: “Focus.” http://bit.ly/2DtpnFk
Today: The Sundance Film Festival opens.
