"Being genius is not enough, it takes courage to change people's hearts"
Caracal Global Daily
January 7, 2019
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross
Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia
Caracal Global Daily = News + Analysis at the Intersection of Globalization + Disruption + Politics
TOP FIVE
✔️ Eurasia Group's top risks for 2019
✔️ US-China trade talks
✔️ ‘Yellow Vests’ staying power
✔️ How Clemson competes with Alabama
✔️ Musk breaks ground on Tesla's Shanghai factory
ROSS RANT
Sound On: New Dem Congress, gov shutdown, Apple: I was on Bloomberg Radio's Sound On program last week. Hosted by Kevin Cirilli, I was joined by Josh Kraushaar of National Journal and Steven Dennis of Bloomberg News. We discussed the new Democrat Congress, Speaker Pelosi, the government shutdown, and Apple in China. You can listen here: https://bloom.bg/2CUaITv
GLOBALIZATION
Top risks for 2019: Eurasia Group's annual forecast of the political risks that are most likely to play out over the course of the year: http://bit.ly/2TApyE9
1. Bad seeds
2. US-China
3. Cyber gloves off
4. European populism
5. The US at home
6. Innovation winter
7.Coalition of the unwilling
8. Mexico
9. Ukraine
10. Nigeria
"Pretty much everything that we monitor geopolitically that matters in the world is presently heading in a negative direction. It’s been 21 years since I started the firm, that’s never been true before." -@ianbremmer
Trump sees China’s weakness as US strength: NYT reports, Trump is largely ignoring economic warning signs in the US, saying China is too weak to keep up the trade fight.
Trade talks resume between US, China amid optimism about ending dispute: WP reports, the meetings in Beijing will be the first face-to-face talks since President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping agreed to a cease-fire in their rancorous trade dispute.
George Magnus: The rhetoric is changing but Xi Jinping is staying the course
Xi cannot risk caving in to anything that threatens China’s core interests.
Industrial policy designed to boost China’s technological and military capacity is not up for negotiation.
FT: Xi Jinping’s top economic adviser unexpectedly attends trade talks
Liu He’s appearance at working level discussions highlights China’s desire to do deal.
US Navy ship sails in disputed South China Sea: Reuters reports, a US guided-missile destroyer sailed near the disputed Paracel Islands in the South China Sea claimed by China as US officials join talks in Beijing during a truce in a bitter trade war.
China approves $125bn of rail projects in stimulus: FT reports, easure to boost economy is latest move to give country breathing space in trade war.
AFP: Taiwan arrests BASF engineers for 'leaking tech' to China
‘Yellow Vests’ show staying power: After another weekend of protests, France’s “yellow vests” are establishing themselves as an unavoidable force in French politics and a durable threat to the presidency of Emmanuel Macron.
NSA Bolton: Team Trump won’t withdraw US forces from northern Syria unless Turkey offers a firm commitment not to target America’s Kurdish allies.
China, Russia, and EU edge away from petrodollar: Nikkei reports, rise of US unilateralism raises concern about relying on greenback for oil trade.
Gabon foiled an attempted military coup on Monday, arresting several plotters just hours after they took over state radio in a bid to end 50 years of rule by President Ali Bongo's family.
DISRUPTION
WSJ: The rivalry that shouldn’t be: How Clemson competes with Alabama
The Tigers make 50% less money than the Crimson Tide but recruit and fundraise with creativity.
The Tigers’ broad reach is partly the byproduct of expanded social-media marketing efforts, spurred by Clemson’s hiring five years ago of a former Tampa Bay Rays employee named Jonathan Gantt to lead a small staff of content creators. Their job: to concoct such vivid portraits of life at Clemson that recruits would want to visit.
Privacy becomes a selling point at tech show: AFP reports, Apple is not among the exhibitors at the 2019 Consumer Electronics Show, but that didn't prevent the iPhone maker from sending a message to attendees on a large billboard. "What happens on your iPhone stays on your iPhone," Apple says in the message to be seen by tens of thousands attending the Las Vegas tech show.
US gadget love forecast to grow despite trust issues: AFP reports, the US tech industry is weathering a crisis of confidence over data protection and a difficult geopolitical situation, with record sales expected in 2019, organizers of the Consumer Electronics Show said Sunday. The Consumer Technology Association (CTA) predicted that US retail revenue in the sector would climb to a record high $398 billion this year.
POLITICS
Trump tries to sell border ‘barrier’ to Democrats: FT reports, White House drops demand for concrete wall as shutdown heads into third week.
Biden sees himself as Democrats’ best hope in 2020, allies say: NYT reports, Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s entry into the presidential race would set up a primary clash between a veteran Washington insider and more liberal contenders.
Jonathan Bernstein: Does Joe Biden have a chance?
Democrats like him. But he’d likely command only factional support – and not a winning coalition.
Reuters: Democrat Warren takes economic message to Iowa in kickoff to 2020 race
California: Democrat Gavin Newsom will be sworn in as California’s 40th governor today.
FT: US-China: farmers count the cost of the trade war
America’s soybean exports to the world’s biggest market have all but disappeared, leaving farmers dependent on a $12bn bailout
“As soybeans have remained the most exposed commodity in the trade war, investors should monitor this market in assessing the state of Sino-US trade negotiation,” says Citigroup.
“The longer this goes on, we’re going to see bankruptcies go up and then it’s going to bleed into the banking sector,” says Neel Kashkari, the Minneapolis Fed president.
Edward Luce: The fading of the US multinational lobby
Trump is no longer listening to big business
It used to be said that what was good for General Motors was good for America. Donald Trump’s administration believes that what is bad for Apple is bad for China.
Business pocketed Trump’s corporate tax cut last year — and the rolling deregulation. They must swallow the rest.
How Washington plans to regulate Big Tech: FT reports, Silicon Valley is steeling itself for 2019 to be the year when Washington takes action over how tech companies balance the way they use data against their customers’ right to privacy.
“Secret algorithms, concealed monitoring & potential marketing & more, require privacy rights and protection,” tweeted Richard Blumenthal, a Democratic senator, referring to Facebook.
Chinese tech investors flee Silicon Valley as Trump tightens scrutiny: Reuters reports, new Trump administration policies aimed at curbing China’s access to American innovation have all but halted Chinese investment in U.S. technology startups, as both investors and startup founders abandon deals amid scrutiny from Washington.
COMMERCE
WSJ: CBS News names Susan Zirinsky as its first female president
CNBC: Elon Musk breaks ground on Tesla's Shanghai factory
"China is becoming the global leader in electric vehicle adoption, and it is a market that is critical to Tesla's mission to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy" -- Elon Musk
After four years of planning, Tesla Inc. finally broke ground on its planned $5 billion factory in the world’s biggest auto market.
Nikkei: China tech to 'stay low' at CES amid simmering trade war
Nucor said it would spend about $1.35 billion to build a plate mill in the Midwest, taking advantage of federal tax cuts that has resulted in windfall gains for several companies.
Eli Lilly buying Loxo Oncology in $8B deal.
Marriott: Hackers accessed more than 5 million passport numbers during November’s massive data breach.
Stores in the US, 2016:
Subway: 26,932
YUM! Brands: 17,504
McDonald's: 14,155
Dollar Tree: 14,108
Dollar Tree: 13,322
Starbucks: 13,172
Dunkin' Brands: 11,366
CVS Health: 9,769
7-Eleven: 8,256
Burger King: 8,121
Verizon: 6,839
Wendy's: 5,739
HT NRF
CULTURE
Golden Globes: “Green Book” emerged as the big winner, taking home three trophies, including best comedy.
HBD: Nicolas Cage, actor, Leaving Las Vegas (1995), 55
SPORT
HBD: Lewis Hamilton, racing driver, five-time Formula One world champion (2008, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018), 34
College Football Final
Oklahoma vs Clemson +7 | OU 60
8:00 pm ET on ESPN
NYT: Alabama’s toughest competition might be its second string. Or its third
