Stories and polls at the intersection of globalization, disruption, and politics from the week of February 17, 2020:
John Podhoretz: Nevada Democratic debate was the greatest debate in human history
Peggy Noonan: The best Democratic debate in years: Veteran candidates were on fire and at the top of their game. Can newcomer Mike Bloomberg recover?
Bill Kristol: Who won? What if the real winner was Amy Klobuchar? http://bit.ly/37F1CWM
"Klobuchar probably needs to be a clear second in Nevada just to survive. But my contrarian, likely-to-be-wrong, suggestion is that she just might get it."
Rahm Emanuel: Bernie Sanders, insider: Voters find ‘just fix the damn roads’ a more compelling pitch than ‘I wrote the damn bill.’
Dem convention politics: David Plouffe has joined Terry McAuliffe in declaring without reservation that it would be suicide for the party to try to take the nomination away from Sanders at the convention if the Vermonter has a plurality of the delegates.
WP: Harry Reid says Bernie Sanders needs more than plurality to win Democratic nomination
“I do not believe anyone should get the nomination unless they have 50-plus-one,” the former Senate majority leader said in an interview two days before the Nevada caucuses.
Democrats try to blunt strong California showing for Sanders: AP reports, Bernie Sanders has been working the state for months, organizing intensively among Latinos and young voters, producing campaign materials in seven languages, going, as one aide said, “where most candidates don’t go.” Mike Bloomberg has tried to counter Sanders with saturation advertising, including buying time at television stations in Arizona, Nevada, and Oregon that also reach California.
Recent polls show Sanders in front of other top candidates in the state, with Biden, Bloomberg, Buttigieg, and Warren all hovering near the threshold for receiving delegates.
How Bloomberg bungled a debate that he had been prepped for: NYT reports, Michael Bloomberg’s campaign advisers had anticipated tough debate questions on stop-and-frisk and nondisclosure agreements. The former mayor’s performance left his team rattled.
WP: One Bloomberg spent $340 million on polished ads. The other one stumbled through the debate.
Philip Collins: Michael Bloomberg must wise up if he wants to win: The billionaire may be the only Democrat who Donald Trump fears but he needs more empathy and sharper delivery.
The challenge is bigger than Trump: Le Monde diplomatique writes, before the electoral fight against Trump, there is a conflict within the Democratic party to be resolved: can Trump be beaten by a candidate who merely resets the dial, or is the US ready for more radical change?
Ross Douthat: The Bloomberg temptation: Will the Democrats try to replace Donald Trump with a power-hungry plutocrat?
Tech boom, suburban growth drive Nevada’s Democratic shift: AP reports, i the last decade Nevada has undergone a political transformation from Republican outpost to a contested battleground to emerging Democratic hotbed. All but one member of the state’s congressional delegation is a Democrat along with all but one of the statewide officer holders. The Democratic swing has been so pronounced that Trump’s campaign views Minnesota — a state that hasn’t voted for a GOP presidential candidate since 1972 — as friendlier territory than Nevada.
Democrats big money pledges give way to reality of 2020 race: AP reports: “It was a huge mistake to try to adhere to this level of financial purity. The only person who can do it is Bernie Sanders — no one else can. Barack Obama couldn’t, Hillary Clinton couldn’t and Donald Trump can’t,” said Rufus Gifford a prominent Democratic fundraiser who held high-level posts in both of Obama’s campaigns.
Warren raised $10.4 million, held just $2.2 million in reserve at the month’s end and took out a $400,000 line of credit.
Biden raised $8.8 million in January and had $7.1 million in the bank.
Klobuchar had $2.8 million on hand.
Lawmakers are warned that Russia is meddling to re-elect Trump: NYT reports, a classified briefing to House members is said to have angered the president, who complained that Democrats would “weaponize” the disclosure.
Trump set off by intelligence assertion that Russia favors him: WP reports, after a senior US intelligence official told lawmakers last week that Russia wants to see Trump reelected, he erupted at his acting director of national intelligence, Joseph Maguire, viewing him and his staff as disloyal for telling Congress about Russia’s perceived preference.
WP: Political ads are flooding Hulu, Roku and other streaming services, revealing loopholes in federal election laws
With more Americans cutting the cord, watchdogs worry that voters lack a full understanding of who’s trying to influence them.
Trump ads will take over YouTube’s homepage on Election Day: Bloomberg reports, the campaign has secured one of the most high-profile spots on the internet.
How the drug lobby lost its mojo in Washington: WSJ reports, a rift between the GOP and its longtime pharmaceutical-industry allies is shaking up policy, as Republicans and Democrats join to overhaul price regulations.
AP: Debate night brawl: Bloomberg, Sanders attacked by rivals
WSJ: Candidates attack each other in fiery debate
NYT: Democrats unleash an onslaught of attacks, aiming at Bloomberg
The sharp exchanges reflected the urgency of the moment as Michael Bloomberg, in his first presidential debate, was sharply criticized in personal terms.
FT: Bloomberg comes under fire during Democratic debate
Presidential rivals attack billionaire in his TV event debut in Las Vegas.
WP: Democrats draw sharp contrasts in debate fraught with heated exchanges
Attacks touched on nondisclosure agreements, tax returns, criminal justice policies and health-care plans.
Bloomberg: Michael Bloomberg hit from all sides in spirited Democratic debate
@mikememoli: "As I said to Mike Bloomberg walking out, welcome to the party, man” - @JoeBiden on @MSNBC post-debate show
@kayleighmcenany: The Democrat Party is in the midst of a full-scale meltdown. Americans are watching the party of JFK be torn apart... None of these candidates will be able to go toe to toe with President @realDonaldTrump in November.
@ConnorMEwing: Mind-blowing fact of the day: If Bill Clinton (73) announced that he was running for president and jumped on the @NBCNews debate stage in Las Vegas tonight, he'd be the second-youngest guy on stage and smack dab in the middle of the whole group.
WP: Bloomberg’s immense spending gets him 30,000 online ads a minute, and a whole lot more
Consider for a second, even if Sanders is the Democrat nominee, he will start the general election contest with nearly 220 electoral votes no matter what Team Trump does.
Trump names Germany ambassador as US intelligence chief: FT reports, Democrats condemn Richard Grenell’s lack of experience and acting director position.
Richard Grenell, the US ambassador to Germany and staunch presidential ally, will become acting director of national intelligence, commanding the nation’s 17 spy agencies, AP reports.
WP: Trump’s NASCAR event was targeted at his base — but maybe he should have gone to a hockey game
Hockey fans are six percentage points more Republican than Democratic, the widest pro-Republican margin of any sport.
Guardian: Red-state Utah embraces plan to tackle climate crisis in surprising shift
Utah aims to reduce emissions over air quality concerns as other red states are also starting to tackle global heating.
AP: 5 questions for next Democratic debate, Mike Bloomberg’s 1st http://bit.ly/2SEumKY
Politico: ‘A complete disaster’: Fears grow over potential Nevada caucus malfunction
Volunteers complain of poor training for a vote-reporting system that was adopted on the fly.
Bernie Sanders has taken sole possession of the lead in the Democratic primary race, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.
538: Does Sanders have a ceiling? Maybe. Can he win anyway? Yes.
"To put it another way, instead of thinking of hard ceilings, it’s probably best to think of candidates as being either low or high volatility based on the amount of competition they face."
538: Who will win the 2020 Democratic primary?
Sanders 42%
No one 36%
Biden 12%
Bloomberg 7%
Buttigieg 2%
Warren 1%
All others .1%
WP: ‘We’re putting the airplane together as we’re flying it’: Klobuchar team scrambles to prolong moment in the sun
@CillizzaCNN: New VA #'s:
Bloomberg 22%
Sanders 22%
Biden 18%
Buttigieg 11%
Sanders opens 12-point lead nationally: poll: The Hill reports, Bernie Sanders has opened a 12-point lead nationally in the Democratic presidential primary race, according to a new poll. Sanders has 31 percent support in the NPR–PBS NewsHour–Marist poll released early Tuesday, pushing him into the top spot, which had been held by former Vice President Joe Biden.
Clinton Leaf: The case for a national primary http://bit.ly/38EHIN3
"Voters across America deserve their chance to winnow the field. And a pair of national nominating primaries, one each for Republicans and Democrats, offers the best chance of producing two nominees who can appeal to the broadest swath of the electorate come November—candidates who can connect with the fast-growing number of voters unaffiliated with either major party."
ABC News: Stacey Abrams 'absolutely' wants to run for president one day, but says she'd accept a VP slot in 2020
Team Trump sees trade as being a winner for Election 2020: In a speech to the National Association of Manufacturers last Friday, VP Pence cited administration estimates that the new Nafta “is going to create another 600,000 new jobs, including, we think, at least 50,000 manufacturing jobs right out of the gate.
The Trump campaign has invested most of its advertising budget to date on Facebook, testing thousands of versions of ads per day to maximize its spending.
Bloomberg: Trump backers want extra $1 billion to blunt Bloomberg spending
@aaronzitner: Trump post-impeachment in WSJ/NBC News poll:
47% job approval, ties all-time high
51% approval among independents, a new high
53% approval on economy, a new high
Still trails Obama, GWBush on job approval at this point in term
Trump vows to ‘clean up’ LA at Olympic meeting briefing: AP reports, Trump on Tuesday veered into politics during a briefing on preparations for the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles, criticizing the city’s political leadership for failing to curtail its homelessness epidemic. Trump said if Los Angeles doesn’t “clean it up fast,” he will intervene. “If they can’t do it themselves, we’re going to do it,” Trump said. “The federal government is going to take it over, we’re going to do it.“
Politico: Bernie breaks out of the pack
"Bernie Sanders is becoming harder to stop. Nevada is where his opponents are starting to realize it."
"Advisers to three rival campaigns privately conceded over the weekend that the best anyone else could hope for here is second or third."
How Bernie Sanders became the Democratic primary's early front-runner: CNN reports, in interviews with dozens of staffers and supporters, the conversation about Sanders' place today, as the leading vote-getter after Iowa and New Hampshire, almost always comes back to that heart attack in October. The fear, the doubt and, inevitably, the revival. On the night he fell ill in Las Vegas, Sanders was lagging in both national and early state polling. To the many observers who already doubted his staying power in such a deep field, the consensus hardened: Sanders, surely, was done for. https://cnn.it/2SPZshL
Charles Lane: 14 questions for Bernie Sanders https://wapo.st/38HXrek
Biden, seeking revival, is counting on at least second place in Nevada: NYT reports, Joe Biden’s first two finishes sent his poll numbers plummeting and put his donors on edge. Nevada will show whether he can revive his campaign.
Democrats look ahead from Nevada and see a common enemy: Bloomberg: NYT reports, the presidential candidates worked to sell their pitches to the state’s caucusgoers on Sunday, but also ripped into the billionaire they will soon face in the Super Tuesday contests on March 3.
@latimes: Presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg has spent more than 10 times what his top rivals have put into the Super Tuesday races
Nolan Finley: Bloomberg places big bet on Michigan: Bloomberg has already been to Michigan twice, both times stopping in Detroit, including once to meet with 100 black pastors. He’s expected to return at least twice more before the March 10 balloting. The campaign has reportedly spent $8 million in the state already, which explains the frequency of those television ads. With Democrats showing increasing ambivalence toward the field of presidential candidates who have been chasing their votes for the past year, Bloomberg’s strategy of coming in at the end as a fresh and very well-funded face may turn out to be genius. But that depends on how Michigan receives him.
Michael Bloomberg will release three nationwide TV ads this morning that are laser-focused on one thing: beating Trump, whom one ad describes as "the biggest bully of all."
Dan Pfeiffer: Dems beware: Don’t be like Mitt in 2012: He’s become a folk hero for his impeachment vote, but as a candidate he blew the race. Here's how to avoid the mistakes of 2012.
Ocasio-Cortez faces 13 challengers – but can anyone unseat her? Guardian reports, eight Republicans and five Democrats are vying to take on AOC – but many voters in the district are voicing support for the congresswoman.
FT: Democratic calls to break up Big Tech raise fears in Silicon Valley
Amanda Carpenter: Bernie Sanders is Ron Paul 2.0: The Ron Paul Revolution is coming to its natural conclusion in Vermont's democratic-socialist. http://bit.ly/2SszBNWb
Trump hopes to ride US-China deal to win reelection: Politico reports, after nearly two years of economic warfare with Beijing that rattled stock market investors and cost farmers and companies billions in lost sales, President Donald Trump appears — for now, at least — uneager to replay those events ahead of the November election. Instead, as Trump prepares for his phase one trade deal with China to take effect Friday, he has shifted from beating up on China to boasting about how he took them on and won.
Michael R. Strain: Is carnage still Trump's key to the Electoral College? “American carnage” was at the heart of Donald Trump’s successful 2016 presidential campaign, particularly in hard-hit swing states. Now he is saying that “the years of economic decay are over” and heralding “the great American comeback.” Will the new rhetoric work in the crucial battleground states as the president seeks reelection? Even if “it’s morning again in America” is the right message for the 2020 swing states and the nation as a whole, Trump may not be the right messenger.
Shay Khatiri: The Irrelevance of Marco Rubio: He used to be the future of the Republican party. Now he’s desperately hunting for new principles. http://bit.ly/2uLi7mO
Pentagon and Microsoft must halt work on JEDI cloud ... for now: Federal Times reports, a federal judge ruled the Pentagon and Microsoft must temporarily suspend work on the Department of Defense’s controversial Joint Enterprise Cloud Infrastructure contract while a court hears Amazon’s challenge to the award decision.
Why the US Navy needs at least 355 ships: The National Interest reports, in future years, however, America must make the hard choices to put the Navy on a solid footing towards achieving the force structure our nation needs.
IRS removes guidance on Fortnite game currency: report: The IRS has removed guidance from its website that said in-game virtual currency in video games such as Fortnite could be subject to a new reporting requirement on federal tax returns. IRS Chief Counsel Michael Desmond said the video game currencies should not have been included in the guidance alongside bitcoin, according to a report by Bloomberg Tax.
