As the Tokyo Summer Games end, attention will now turn to Beijing and the prospects of a diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Winter Games.
The opening ceremony for Beijing 2022 is scheduled to take place less than 180 days in the same Bird's Nest stadium that the Chinese capital used for the 2008 Summer Games.
The six-month gap marks the shortest turnaround between installments of the Olympics since 1992.
But it's also shaping up to be the most controversial Olympics in recent years, as calls grow for a diplomatic boycott over Beijing's alleged human rights abuses against the Uyghur Muslims in the western region of Xinjiang.
In addition, the build-up to the event will be set against the backdrop of a worsening pandemic and lingering questions over Beijing's alleged mishandling of the initial outbreak.
Any multinational company, CEO, and board member connected to sponsoring the event has been and will be called into question.
Last week, CNBC's Sara Eisen asked Nike CEO John Donahoe: Why not speak out more on China's human rights abuses when it is so out front on societal issues here in the US?
He replied that for Nike, China is an important market. The company has a long-term commitment and perspective for the country. The company is operating a responsible global supply chain.
A yeah, so what?
The type of response one would expect, but not one that will satisfy numerous stakeholders.
Sally Jenkins, a sports columnist for the Washington Post, dropped a column with the title: It's unforgivable to hold the Olympics in Beijing.
"Olympic boycotts are a highly disputed topic, only because the argument starts from the wrong end. What matters is not the behavior of the boycotted regime. What matters is the firm behavior of the boycotters. The United States' refusal to go to Moscow in 1980 after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was a success in that it organized more than 60 other countries to also shun Moscow, helped lead a global hardening of sentiment against that regime, signaled a global blockade to aggression and set up the firm confrontations of the Reagan years."
That was then, and this is now.
A boycott of the Beijing Winter Games, it is unlikely.
Even Las Vegas agrees.
BetOnline: Will the USA boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?
Yes +800 (8/1)
No -2500 (1/25)
(Odds imply an 11.1% probability the US will boycott)
Consider when the US Olympic Team boycotted the Moscow Summer Games in 1980, the Carter administration engaged in a multi-month, multilateral diplomatic effort - it wasn't a rash decision to not send US athletes.
With less than six months to go until the Beijing Games, what will the Team Biden do?
The American public seems to want action:
61% of Republicans and 50% of Democrats say China shouldn't be allowed to host the 2022 Olympics because of its human rights record, according to an Axios | Momentive survey.
However, penalizing athletes who have no choice in where to compete seems unfair, and the wrath American business would experience from Beijing would be harsh.
Plus, does Team Biden want to deal with an overly wounded China in a mid-term election year?
Once again, unlikely.
It's easy to ask black and white poll questions and for politicians to speak harshly on China - it all makes political sense - but once you decide to boycott the Beijing Winter Games, then what?
As Jenkins correctly writes, the rationale for the Carter administration for not sending US athletes to Moscow in 1980 was due to the Soviet occupation in Afghanistan.
But the Soviets ultimately didn't leave Afghanistan until 1989.
That is nine years after the games.
The boycott was hardly an action-forcing event to change the Soviet's military aggression.
Look for stern talk from the White House and a Congressional resolution listing American issues with Beijing hosting the Winter Games, but US athletes will compete in China next February.
Also, look for American businesses praying as they skate on thin ice for the next six months caught between two governments, capitalists, and shareholders.
