Here's a guest lecture I made at UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School back in Spring 2018.
You can see the corresponding deck here: Public Policy Consequences of Retail Distribution
Frankly, the world of 2018 very much resembles the world of 2022.
For example - this slide:
Distrust 2018
Nobody trusts government
Nobody trusts media
Nobody trusts institutions
If presenting today, I would offer the same slide.
One more example - this slide:
Empowerment 2018
Everyone is a witness
Everyone is a publisher
Everyone is an activist
If presenting today, I would offer the same slide.
One more example - this slide:
Future 2018
Autonomous vehicles
AR + VR
Gene editing
Internet of Things
Artificial intelligence
Blockchain
Robots + Automations
Droids + Drones
If presenting today, I would offer the same slide.
And one more example - this slide:
New leaders to fill vacuum
Innovators
Celebrities
Foreign Leaders
NGOs + Pressure Groups
Thought Leaders
CEOs
The avatar leaders selected in 2018 were:
Jeff Bezos
Oprah Winfrey
Emanuel Macron
Youth-driven Activists
Scott Galloway
Jamie Dimon
If presenting today, I would offer the same slide and avatars.
As for the predictions, well, 3 out of 5 is pretty, pretty good.
Predictions
Amazon buys Carrefour
Pro-consumer loses to pro-competition
Brick and mortar is less but better
Experiences, education, and entertainment win
Supply chains and sourcing stressed
So you are now asking, "Great. What does this mean, Marc?"
Well, I will tell you.
Four things:
1. Even though culture follows power, culture is slow to move and expensive to change. Change culture takes fortitude, patience, and big bucks. A good idea is one thing, but the execution of a good idea is in another.
Distrust of government, media, and institutions will continue.
2. Good politics rarely makes good economics. Easy solutions sound good on the campaign trail, but the reality is we are living in an age of hyper politics and well-organized stakeholder democracy.
Extreme political operators will continue to dominate media coverage and draw buzz but will do little to advance their causes.
3. The scalability potential of business today was previously unknown.
We have moved business from the city to the county. From a country business to a proper cosmopolitan business where your customer is anywhere there is an internet connection. This global business model stresses CEO-to-typical-worker compensation but allows for a swing-for-the-fences shot at wealth.
Otherworldly compensation will continue as the corporate world hasn't decided how much one person's work is worth relative to everyone else's.
Just last week JPMorgan Chase & Co. announced Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon will get a 9.5% rise in annual pay, bringing his total compensation for 2021 to $34.5 million.
4. Amazon will buy Carrefour. Amazon needs a proper business operation in Europe, and Carrefour desires the technology know-how.
Consolidation of retail will continue, seeing global mergers and acquisitions.
So, 2022 is 2018, no?
Need help on how to communicate in this environment?
Book Caracal for a solo executive advisory session to discuss your world, or hire us to lead your team on a workshop that focuses on global business issues at the intersection of globalization, disruption, and politics.
Happy to help.
