"Increasingly, we live in a world where the Flintstones meet the Jetsons--and the Flintstones don't much like it." -- Ralph Peters
Two trends are converging to shape our politics for the balance of the century.
The first is the rise of new political warriors.
Political warriors who can exploit social media, snapshot videos, and memes.
Political warriors who have access to their own news, their own facts, where personality trumps policy.
Political warriors who spout certainty and easy answers with smart brevity.
Political warriors that encourage voters to embrace certainty over pressing society forward.
We have a democratic system comprised of political pros who follow unspoken rules and mores mashed-up with political warriors who do not subscribe to them.
Unlike political pros, political warriors do not play by the same rules, do not respect traditional statesmanship, and do not obey top-down orders.
Political warriors are back and better armed with better tech and better street smarts.
It is like a contest for hearts and minds, with And1 playing streetball while Nike plays association basketball.
The second is the rapid world of change.
A world of change that is equally spectacular and spooky.
A world of change where one can learn global financial developments in real-time and be served ads based on your smartphone "listening" to you.
A world of change where technology is sold as making us more efficient and more WFH alone.
A world of change where the internet is the most incredible machine of knowledge transfer since movable type, and we know movable type did not lead to more tranquility and agreement.
We have a democratic system where the battles are for change and for resistance.
These two trends, the rise of new political warriors and the rapid world of change, are converging to shape our politics for the balance of the century.
There will be more rough patches ahead.
There will be more walkabouts on rugged land that is uneven and covered with rocks, with few trees or plants.
Recognition of this environment, not fear of this environment, is essential.
Wishes and hopes are not winning strategies.
Also, less technology isn't going to happen, ever.
Fear of technology use, not seeing what can happen when technology is widely distributed, and silly concepts solving the complex have a history of being overcome with persistence and smart communications.
In 1913, the US government sued Lee De Forest and his business partners for a misleading stock offering.
Their evasive stock offering told investors they had the technology to transmit voice across the Atlantic Ocean.
Not only can I transmit voice across the Atlantic Ocean, but I can also transmit voice across the Arctic Ocean.
And this reputed gem from IBM President Thomas Watson in 1943: "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
I have five computers in my den.
Of course, this classic, Galileo di Vincenzo Bonaiuti de' Galilei on trial in 1633 for holding the belief that the Earth revolves around the sun, which was deemed heretical by the Catholic Church.
It wasn't until 1822, 189 years too late to do Galileo any good, that the church confessed that the Earth might revolve around the sun.
And it wasn't until 2000 that Pope John Paul apologized for how the Catholic Church treated Galileo.
Today, thanks to the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), I can study an image of Stephan's Quintet with features astronomers had never seen before. Webb's photo shows how interacting galaxies trigger star formation in each other and how gas in galaxies is being disturbed.
Incidentally, Stephan's Quintet is 290 million light-years away.
What would De Forest sell now?
What would Watson think now?
What would Galileo discover now?
Successful communications happens from spotting trends and tendencies in the present while equally maintaining knowledge of historical successes and failures.
In this century, communicators that know the secret menus of both Brontoburgers Restaurant and Spaceburger Drive-In will be successful.
-Marc
