10 global business issues at the intersection of globalization, disruption, and politics.
Geopolitical Communications + Intelligence
1. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo as the next Treasury Secretary? Gabriel Debenedetti writes that any pivot Biden attempts will probably involve changes to policy strategy and the makeup of his senior staff. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, in particular, has been the subject of increasing speculation in Washington — including among some antsy Democrats within the administration and others close to it. The administration's biggest domestic political problem is raging inflation, and Yellen has become one of the faces of that issue.
+ Raimondo is a 51-year-old former Rhode Island governor and close to major corporations, especially tech companies
+ She co-chaired Michael Bloomberg's 2020 campaign
+ The latest Politico/Morning Consult poll finds Biden's approval rating sinking to 39%, an all-time low and similar to where Trump stood at his June 2020 nadir
2. The new expression of 'eternal leader' emerges ahead of the Chinese Communist Party's Beidaihe summer conclave: Nikkei reports that the use of phrases such as "eternal leader" and "people's leader" suggests that Xi is aiming to acquire the status of "party chairman," which Mao retained for life.
+ Xi is still aiming for a title that bestows greatness, and many close aides are competing to help him succeed in his quest. They are engaged in a fierce power struggle for survival.
+ "Factions, dude. Factions."
3. NATO + Japan grow closer by the day: Russia has torn up an agreement with Japan on fishing around the disputed Kurile Islands, as strained relations chill further because of the invasion of Ukraine.
+ PM Fumio Kishida could become the first Japanese leader to attend a NATO summit
4. NASA to launch three rockets from a private Australian spaceport: This will be NASA's first blast off from a commercial spaceport outside the United States.
+ Canberra is becoming more critical to DC by the hour.
5. Crypto industry scores a big win under a long-anticipated Senate bill: A highly anticipated Senate proposal to bring the freewheeling cryptocurrency industry under federal oversight would deliver a victory for the sector by empowering its preferred regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), over the Securities and Exchange Commission.
6. World Bank warns global economy may suffer 1970s-style stagflation: Today, developing countries owe a record amount to foreign banks and other financial institutions. One-quarter of the typical developing country's debt burden now carries variable interest rates, up from 11 percent in 2010.
+ China will fall short of the government's annual growth target, expanding by 4.3 percent. That would be Beijing's worst full-year figure since 1990, excluding 2020, when the pandemic depressed activity.
7. William Burns = Team Biden's most valuable player: CIA Director and veteran diplomat Burns has a unique role on Biden's national-security team as a sort of special envoy for complex problems and "people you don't want to talk with," according to a former senior administration official.
+ Read: The spy-diplomat sent on Biden's toughest missions WSJ
8. The immediate future of the global supply chain rests on a bargaining table in San Francisco: The union representing all West Coast dockworkers is hashing out a new contract with the assembled bosses of maritime shipping. The current contract, which covers the International Longshore and Warehouse Union's more than 22,000 workers at the 29 ports dotting the Pacific coast of the US, is set to expire July 1.
9. Boris Johnson's confidence vote win means Tory civil war: This week's confidence vote is as bad a result for Boris Johnson as a victory can be. The UK now faces further political paralysis as more than two-fifths of the PM's colleagues say he should go.
10. Borgen is back: The Danish political drama on Netflix is known for showcasing dirty politics built on compromise. Not anymore. Check out Borgen – Power & Glory. Here’s the trailer.
