Sweden is currently facing its most significant security challenges since 1945, according to Henrik Landerholm, the national security adviser.
Landerholm warned that Sweden, once a symbol of peace, neutrality, and social cohesion, is now confronted by challenges on three fronts: Russia, Islamist terrorism, and internal violence related to drug cartels.
Landerholm explained that these threats are interrelated, with Moscow using disinformation and hybrid warfare techniques to exploit vulnerabilities within Swedish society and provoke tension among fundamentalist Muslims. Although each challenge may not be overwhelming, the cumulative impact stresses the system, both socially and politically.
One of Sweden's significant challenges is the existence of "vulnerable areas" – deprived suburbs in large cities with a concentration of residents with migrant backgrounds, low levels of employment and education, and high crime rates. These areas serve as breeding grounds for Islamist groups and armed criminal gangs, contributing to the overall security crisis.
Magnus Hjort, the director-general of the Swedish Psychological Defence Agency, expressed that trust and the social contract have effectively broken down in these vulnerable areas. This breakdown exacerbates Swedish authorities' challenges in addressing the multifaceted security threats.
In response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February of the previous year, Sweden has undergone a radical shift in its "basic security posture," marking the first significant change in over 200 years since adopting neutrality after the Napoleonic wars.
Sweden applied to join NATO three months after the invasion alongside Finland. It has substantially increased its defense budget since 2018, aiming to meet the alliance's target of spending 2 percent of GDP on the military next year.
The Baltic Sea, a significant target for Russian aggression, is a focal point in Sweden's strategic considerations. The government is grappling with its new role on NATO's eastern flank, and the strategic importance of the Swedish island of Gotland, which overlooks key maritime routes through the Baltic, adds complexity to the nation's security challenges. The island could play a pivotal role in any considerable conflict, underscoring the need for comprehensive measures to safeguard Sweden's security in this heightened threat environment.
The government is set to evaluate proposals from the chief of defense staff on reshaping the armed forces to counter the evolving security threats of the 2020s, particularly those posed by Russia.
CAP (Communications Action Point) = Sweden faces a security challenge not seen since 1945 and is a multifaceted threat. Combining hybrid warfare techniques exploits vulnerabilities within Swedish society and forces leaders to think high-low to ensure peace and prosperity.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly
-Marc
