I don't think Xi Jinping approved this, and I think this is a People's Liberation Army (PLA) inside hatchet job.
This spy balloon incident reminds me a lot of when Defense Secretary Robert Gates visited China in 2011, and the PLA revealed a new stealth jet.
"China conducted the first test flight of its stealth fighter just hours before US Defense Secretary Robert Gates sat down with President Hu Jintao here to mend frayed relations, undermining the meeting and prompting questions over whether China's civilian leadership is fully in control of the increasingly powerful armed forces."
Here's The Wall Street Journal article from January 2011: China shows its growing might: Stealth jet upstages Gates, Hu WSJ
And this from today's Financial Times:
"One question that could suggest how China will respond is whether Xi approved the mission or was unaware of it. In 2011, the US assessed that then Chinese president Hu Jintao was unaware that the PLA had tested a stealth fighter hours before he met then US defense secretary Robert Gates."
And more from today's Financial Times:
"Some experts (like me) believe the regret that came from China on Friday suggested that Xi had been caught off guard. One theory is that the Chinese president would have been unlikely to approve such a mission at this time because he is on a charm offensive to woo business back to China and needs to secure better relations with Washington."
Here's the Financial Times article: Violent end to spy balloon flight dashes chance of US-China reset FT
And this from today's Washington Post:
“In 2011, hours before receiving Defense Secretary Robert Gates in Beijing, the People’s Liberation Army staged a test flight of a new stealth fighter jet. When US officials raised the issue with President Hu Jintao, the leader, and his retinue appeared caught off guard.”
Here's the Washington Post article: China rushes to cap damage over suspected spy balloon as Blinken delays trip WP
It is important to note that China doesn't have a like-for-like National Security Act structure that the United States implemented after WWII.
In many ways, it is still the Wild West in Beijing, leading to questions on who really is in control of China's military.
At the same time, it is possible the spy balloon wasn't approved but encouraged, but when things went south, Xi Jinping could say, "I don't know anything."
Until proven otherwise, I don't think Xi knew or approved.
Frankly, it just seems too dumb that Xi would be all "we're open for business" in January to a few weeks later, let's send a balloon before America's secretary of state lands for a meeting.
Bottomline: Helluva of a system, the Chinese Communist Party.
If you need help navigating today's interconnected business environment with geopolitical intelligence, Caracal is here to help.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
