Global Political Intelligence Daily
September 9, 2021

A patriotic act

TOP FIVE

1. Suga to attend Quad summit in Washington

2. Armin Laschet hopes Macron will halt his election slide

3. Trudeau has 12 days to salvage his career

4. Frenemies no more - Harris stumps for Newsom

5. Guinea’s coup is the fifth globally in 2021

ASIA

Hong Kong: Tiananmen vigil organizers arrested: BBC reports the Hong Kong Alliance is known for organizing the city's famed annual vigil for victims of the deadly 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown. Pro-democracy activist and barrister Chow Hang Tung was among the arrested. The arrests were made under the national security law, which has a maximum sentence of life imprisonment.

Tiananmen massacre vigil organizers arrested by Hong Kong authorities: WSJ reports police accuse group that arranged mass candlelight remembrances of not cooperating with an investigation into allegations it is a foreign agent.

Nio plans up to $2bn US share sale to help wage China EV wars: Nikkei reports the New York-listed stock sinks 6%, continuing its 2021 decline.

Bloomberg: China accuses Canada Goose of ‘misleading’ consumers in ads

+ Says Toronto-based co. doesn’t use best materials available

+ Coat maker latest foreign brand caught in political crosshairs

How much will China’s entertainment crackdown hurt K-pop?
SCMP

SCMP: The ‘air breathing’ tech that China hopes can fuel satellites

+ Chinese space authorities have devoted considerable resources to developing the technology but problems persist

+ Researchers found that shock waves in space could complicate designs of the eyes in the sky

Suga to attend Quad summit in Washington: Outgoing Japanese leader to meet separately with Biden on Taiwan.
Nikkei

Abe protege Takaichi to contend election with hawkish China agenda: Lawmaker vows to boost Japan's economic security with 'Sanaenomics.'
Nikkei

Future of nuclear power looms over Japan's LDP leadership race: Nikkei reports a former anti-nuclear crusader Kono now sees a limited role in the zero-emissions effort.

Climate change promises dropped from UK-Australia trade deal
The Times

COVID zero is no longer working for Australia
Edward Cliff + Brian Fernandes

+ India administered more vaccines last month – 180 million – than the G7 countries combined.

EUROPE

Brussels ups the ante in rule-of-law dispute with Poland: Commission wants Warsaw fined for disregarding order from EU’s high court.
Politico

The world’s biggest plant to capture CO2 from the air just opened in Iceland: The Orca, an installation built by Climeworks, will capture 4,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide per year — and serve as a blueprint for similar technology.
WP

The Times: Tory revolt over health and care levy quelled but would-be rebels warn of ‘massive damage’

Sajid Javid: We are still the party of low taxes and Thatcher
The Times

Boris should keep copying Blair
James Kirkup

+ Downing Street denied that the government has plans for an October lockdown.

+ Rents outside London are rising at their fastest rate in more than a decade.

Dominic Cummings sets sights on Biden in blueprint for US
The Times

Why Germany’s red scare is real: Angela Merkel warns that a vote for the SPD could let the far-left into government.
Politico

Would-be Merkel successor Armin Laschet visits France's Macron: DW reports French President Emmanuel Macron has hosted Christian Democrat leader Armin Laschet at the Elysee Palace. The visit comes just weeks before critical elections, with Laschet vying to become Germany's next chancellor.

The Times: Armin Laschet, leader of Germany’s CDU, hopes Macron will halt his election slide

China: Germany's difficult balancing act: Profitable economic relations clash with competing systems. Germany is caught between the fronts. Berlin's most powerful ally and its most important trading partner are on a collision course — the US and China.
DW

NORTH AMERICA

Trudeau has 12 days to salvage his career after election blunder
Bloomberg

Canada’s cowboy country gunning for Justin Trudeau in election fight: Alienation over clean energy risks becoming a full-blown separatist movement ahead of this month’s snap poll.
The Times

Leaders' debates usually don't move the needle much — but this election could buck that trend: CBC reports Canada's main party leaders will meet for the first and only English debate tonight at 9:00 pm ET.

The invited leaders are:

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau
Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh
Green Party Leader Annamie Paul
Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet

Bloomberg: Biden to call for vaccine conference at UN amid shot scarcity

+ With virus spreading, Covax program cuts its supply forecast

+ Advocates say US pledge of 600 million doses is not enough

US Space Force chief convinced China would use satellite killers: Nikkei reports Gen. John Raymond calls for intel sharing with allies.

After 9/11, the US got almost everything wrong: A mission to rid the world of “terror” and “evil” led America in tragic directions.
Garrett M. Graff

+ A new Washington Post-ABC News survey shows a majority of Americans, 46 percent, believe the United States is worse off 20 years after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, while 33 percent say the country improved.

Two decades after 9/11, how delusion led to defeat in Afghanistan: America's war on terror yields to a new era.
Nikkei

The CIA’s least covert mission: The country’s premier intelligence agency is looking to showcase “a softer side” via social media.
Politico

AP: Supreme Court hanging up phone, back to in-person arguments

Why Trump’s steel tariffs are now Biden’s political headache: The president is eager to show he is delivering for steelworkers and other unions, but he faces immense pressure from businesses and European allies to lift steel tariffs that Trump imposed.
Politico

Bloomberg: Raimondo to challenge business lobby on Biden’s tax increases

+ Remarks to be given today to the City Club of Cleveland

+ Commerce secretary will argue spending plan supports families

Capitol Police memo warns of potential for violence during September 18 rally: CNN reports the latest intelligence report on the "Justice for J6" rally — which aims to support insurrectionists charged in the Capitol riots — notes that online chatter in support of the event started increasing after the officer who fatally shot rioter Ashli Babbitt went public with his identity in a recent interview with NBC's Lester Holt.

CA-GOV: A new Suffolk University poll in California finds 41% are in favor of recalling Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), while 58% would like him to remain as governor.

AP: California recall vote offers test of Biden political clout

Frenemies no more. Harris stumps for Newsom as the Californians’ political interests align: LAT reports a Newsom defeat in next week’s recall election would pose a significant problem for the Biden administration.

Recanting nothing, Larry Elder becomes the likeliest candidate to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom — and the likeliest to let him hold on to his job
WP

Politico: DeSantis calls talk of a 2024 presidential bid 'nonsense'

Trump to head to Iowa with an eye on 2024: Politico reports the former president plans to hold a rally in the state as he continues to tease a third run for the White House.

NRCC dumps NYC retreat, adds Trump headliner: Axios reports the GOP's House campaign arm is shuffling its winter fundraising schedule, putting Donald Trump in front of its top financial backers for its annual dinner.

The looming chaos of Trump 2024
WP

Trump chooses Cheney challenger in major test of political clout: Politico reports Harriet Hageman, an attorney who lost a bid for governor in 2018, is set to get Trump's endorsement in the primary against Rep. Liz Cheney.

The Biden administration said it wants solar power to provide 40% of America’s electricity by 2035, up from 3% today. Last year 15 gigawatts of solar capacity were added; that will have to reach 30GW a year until 2025 then 60GW annually until 2030 to achieve the goal.

US clean-energy blueprint contains 40% solar goal for 2035: FT reports the Biden administration study says quadrupling installation rate would not raise bills.

Inside the Ohio factory that could make or break Biden’s big solar energy push: Toledo-area plant faces pressure to boost output as US blocks some solar-panel imports over concerns about forced labor in China.
WP

+ Nearly 10 days after Hurricane Ida hit Louisiana, roughly 80% of US oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico remains offline, making it the “most damaging storm for offshore production in more than 15 years

Ford bites Apple for a taste of Tesla: Poaching Doug Field signals the automaker is serious about transformation.
Liam Denning

REST OF THE WORLD

Did bitcoin’s El Salvador debut dud doom crypto? Stumbles in the digital currency’s transition to legal tender may be just that – but a bigger unknown could thwart its evolution.
Aaron Brown

Jair Bolsonaro tests Brazil's democracy: A president who calls his supporters out to the streets on the national holiday and indirectly threatens to stage a military coup should face impeachment proceedings.
Philipp Lichterbeck

Guinea's opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo: Coup is 'a patriotic act': DW reports two days after the putsch in Guinea that ousted President Alpha Conde, his main political opponent, Cellou Dalein Diallo, told DW that he hopes the coup will lead to more democracy.

+ Guinea’s coup is the fifth globally in 2021 — that’s above the 21st-century coup rate average, but nothing like the 1960s and 1970s, which averaged more than 10 per year.

West Africa economic bloc suspends Guinea after military coup: DW reports the ECOWAS bloc called on Guinea to return to "normal constitutional order" after President Alpha Conde was deposed in a coup by special forces.

How the death of Gaddafi is still being felt by Libya’s neighbors: The violent repercussions of the collapse of security in the north African state a decade ago stretch across the Sahel.
FT


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

Curation and commentary by Marc A. Ross | Founder @ Caracal