Global Political Intelligence Daily
September 8, 2021
Glitchy rollout
TOP FIVE
1. South Korea tests first SLBM
2. Paris attacks of 2015: The logistics behind a historic trial
3. Latinos shape California. Why are so many sitting out the recall?
4. El Salvador’s bitcoin debut stumbles over tech problems
5. A coup in Guinea adds fuel to aluminum’s red-hot rally
ASIA
South Korea tests first SLBM: TKH reports South Korea has become the first non-nuclear state to develop a submarine-launched ballistic missile, having run a test-firing from a newly built submarine, sources said Tuesday. SLBMs have been developed by seven countries -- China, France, India, North Korea, Russia, the UK, and the US -- all of which have nuclear weapons.
US, Japan, S. Korea prepare for possible meeting on N. Korea - report: Reuters reports arrangements were being made for talks between the US envoy for North Korea, Sung Kim, and his Japanese and South Korean counterparts, the report said, citing multiple unnamed sources. The officials would discuss the feasibility of attempts by the US administration of President Joe Biden to open dialogue with North Korea in pursuit of denuclearisation, Kyodo said.
Japan minister Kono may gain rival camp's support in PM race
Reuters
US watches Japan's leadership race, hoping for a stable partner: New PM's staying power and stance on China will affect Biden strategy.
Nikkei
Nikkei: Toyota to invest $13.6bn in batteries for EVs and hybrids by 2030
+ Japan automaker likely to invest in China and US as it nurtures eco-friendliness
Toyota said it would spend more than ¥1.5trn ($13.6bn) to develop and manufacture electric-car batteries by 2030. The carmaker will build an undisclosed number of battery factories around the world, with 70 production lines.
Nikkei: Amazon and Mitsubishi to set up 450 solar power plants in Japan
+ Tech giant ties up with the trading house to secure electricity for data centers
What the delta variant did to South-East Asia: The region had escaped the worst of the pandemic. But in just three months, the virus has brought devastation.
Economist
It’s time for China to change its COVID strategy
Yanzhong Huang
Corporate America fights uphill battle against anti-China push: Companies are teaming up with untraditional allies out of fear that the fall legislative session will lead to restrictive laws.
Politico
Xi Jinping may be leading China into a trap: “Common prosperity” has been portrayed as an effort to reduce income inequality and reassert core Communist Party values. In reality, it risks leaving the country stuck at middle-income status.
Matthew Brooker
China imposes the world’s strictest limits on video games: Foreign firms will be hit as well as Chinese ones.
Economist
No star-worshipping: Xi's cultural clampdown has echoes of past: Dominant Communist Party of Maoist era risks stifling growth and innovation.
Nikkei
China and Big Tech: Xi’s blueprint for a digital dictatorship: By controlling a huge volume of data, Beijing is conducting a grand experiment in 21st century authoritarian governance.
FT
Nationalization beats extinction in China’s education sector: Restrictions on pricing, class times, and marketing have turned private after-school tuition operators into viable but highly regulated businesses.
Tim Culpan
China moves to complete its purge of Hong Kong’s election system: An oath-taking ceremony this week represents the culmination of a campaign by Beijing to roll back past defeats at polls.
Bloomberg
China sees its nuclear arsenal as more than a deterrent: Beijing is adding warheads, missiles, and subs at an alarming rate. The goal is global dominance.
William Schneider Jr.
EUROPE
EU’s microchip dreams face Anglo-American menace: A mega-merger between Nvidia and Arm is a top priority for the European Commission.
Politico
Nvidia faces opposition from EU over $54bn Arm deal: FT reports concessions made by US chipmaker do not go far enough to mitigate damage to rivals, officials say.
Intel to invest up to $95 billion in European chip-making amid US expansion: WP reports Intel plans to build new chip-making facilities in Europe, responding to a cross-border race to add manufacturing capacity. The semiconductor maker pledged to dedicate production capacity in Ireland to car chips to help mitigate shortages.
Who’s who in the race to find a conservative candidate to run for French president: It’s anyone’s guess who’ll be running for Les Républicains.
Politico
Macron is terrible. Nobody can beat him: The French President has been saved by COVID.
Jonathan Miller
Paris: Can a trial help heal victims of the Bataclan terror attacks? A trial on the 2015 Paris terror attacks is getting underway. Although it is likely to run over many months and most of the defendants won't be there, it may help survivors to better live with the trauma.
DW
Paris attacks of 2015: The logistics behind a historic trial
AFP
Factbox: Paris Nov. 2015 attacks: key facts about the trial
Reuters
Angela Merkel implores Germans to pick Armin Laschet as her successor: FT reports the chancellor uses Bundestag speech to warn of dangers of a leftwing government.
Reuters: Volkswagen to set up venture capital fund in decarbonization push
Guardian: Rishi Sunak agrees to add extra £1bn to NHS budget increase
+ Move comes after health secretary lobbied for a larger hike in funding than chancellor intended
Boris Johnson’s big tax-and-spend gamble: The prime minister is rolling the dice with a manifesto-busting tax rise, but there could be trouble ahead.
Politico
Johnson, inviting battle, prepares to break vow on raising taxes: FT reports Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to propose increasing the National Insurance tax to bolster social care services.
Boris Johnson risks being defined by a broken promise: Raising taxes to pay for an overhaul of social care will backfire unless it is part of a wider modernization of the economy.
William Hague
UK extends Brexit grace periods for trade into Northern Ireland again: Britain extends post-Brexit grace periods as talks with the EU continue — and Dublin expects more changes to come.
Politico
The Times: Stop more migrants crossing Channel or pay the price, France warned
NORTH AMERICA
What comes after the war on terrorism? War on China?
Thomas L. Friedman
Can Biden save his presidency?
Bret Stephens
Everything you need to know about the California recall: Republicans are hoping to rekindle the spirit of 2003 to oust Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Politico
Latinos shape California. Why are so many sitting out the recall?
NYT
+ A Public Policy Institute of California poll released last week found 66% of likely Latino voters saying they won't support the recall and just 27% saying they would — a shift from previous polls that suggested a tight race.
+ A FiveThirtyEight polling average shows Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) opening up a double-digit lead against the effort, 53% to 42.6%.
Prayer and politicking: Churches become a center of the California recall campaign
LAT
Why we can’t turn the corner on COVID: After a hot vax summer that wasn’t, it’s clearer than ever that there will be no easy end to the pandemic.
Politico
AP: Idaho hospitals begin rationing health care amid COVID surge
GA-SEN: Former NFL player Herschel Walker (R) officially launched his Senate campaign, ending months of speculation.
Is Donald Trump finished? Admit it: You don’t want him to run again yet his absence hasn’t solved any problem.
Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.
AP: Americans warier of US government surveillance: AP-NORC poll
+ The poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows that support for surveillance tools aimed at monitoring conversations taking place outside the country, once seen as vital in the fight against attacks, has dipped in the last decade.
+ 46% of Americans say they oppose the US government responding to threats against the nation by reading emails sent between people outside of the US without a warrant, as permitted under law for purposes of foreign intelligence collection.
Ford hires exec formerly in charge of Apple’s car project: AP reports before Doug Field joined Ford, he was a vice president of special projects at Apple and an engineer at Tesla. Apple has been rumored to be working on its own car project for some time, but the details have been kept under tight wraps. Field also worked on Tesla’s Model 3 vehicle.
Bloomberg: Ford hires Apple car chief in coup for recovering automaker
+ Doug Field played a major role in launching the Model 3 at Tesla
+ He returned to Apple in 2018 as a VP in special projects group
Apple car executive defects to Ford in blow to automotive ambitions: FT reports hiring Doug Field seen as coup for US carmaker and a setback for iPhone manufacturer.
IPOs: More than 100 companies are expected to go public on US stock exchanges by year-end, capping off what's already been the busiest year for IPOs since 2000.
Reuters: Apple to hold event on Sept 14, new iPhones expected
REST OF THE WORLD
WP: Mexico decriminalizes abortion, a dramatic step in world’s second-biggest Catholic country
Mexico: Criminalizing abortion is unconstitutional, court rules: DW reports Mexico's Supreme Court has declared that penalizing abortion is unconstitutional. Women's health and human rights advocates have lauded the ruling.
El Salvador bought its first 400 bitcoins on Monday, and President Nayib Bukele pledged to buy "a lot more" ahead of adopting the cryptocurrency as legal tender.
El Salvador’s bitcoin debut stumbles over tech problems: FT reports the digital currency’s price falls during the closely watched rollout of Central American country’s new legal tender.
Bloomberg: Bitcoin drops to lowest in month as El Salvador rollout falters
+ El Salvador president tweets that he is buying the dip
+ Selloff comes after almost 75% rally since late July
El Salvador adopted bitcoin as currency — and the first day was rocky
LAT
The price of bitcoin hovered around $47,000 on Tuesday, down about 10% from the day before, after El Salvador became the first country to adopt it as legal tender.
Bloomberg: From bitcoin to Bukele, El Salvador debt can’t get a break
+ Bonds due 2029 fall by most since top judges replaced in May
+ Nation sees glitchy rollout of bitcoin as legal tender
Will bitcoin be El Salvador's passport to riches? A golden visa plan designed to attract the crypto-wealthy doesn’t look like a boon for financial inclusion.
Lionel Laurent
El Salvador’s dangerous gamble on bitcoin: Adopting cryptocurrency as legal tender risks economic stability and personal finances.
FT - Editorial
El Salvador is now the world’s largest bitcoin experiment. Some Salvadorans say they want no part in it.
WP
Pro-Bolsonaro rallies put Brazil on edge: FT reports tens of thousands flock to largest cities to show backing for populist president.
Bolsonaro diehards take to streets of Brazil to urge firing squads and coups
Guardian
+ Africa COVID death toll tops 200,000: AFP tally
Guinea: Coup leaders promise to free political prisoners: DW reports opposition activists welcomed the news but said the military has yet to make good on its word. Ousted President Alpha Conde has been seen on video, though did not answer questions about whether he was being mistreated.
A coup in Guinea adds fuel to aluminum’s red-hot rally: Prices have risen to ten-year highs.
Economist
+ China imported more than 47 percent of its bauxite from Guinea last year, but the military takeover in the West African country may force it to turn to Australia for supply.
Guinea coup upends China strategy as aluminum prices soar: Beijing's dependence on Australia rises while uncertainty clouds African source.
Nikkei
How the coup in Guinea could raise car prices — or foster better deals for its people
WP
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Curation and commentary by Marc A. Ross | Founder @ Caracal
