Global Political Intelligence Daily
September 14, 2021
‘Mr. Nice Guys’
TOP FIVE
1. North Korea says it tested long-range cruise missiles
2. Norway’s pro-oil labor party set to oust conservative government
3. Biden to host "Quad" summit
4. Today: California Recall Election
5. OECD seeks global plan for carbon prices to avoid trade wars
ASIA
North Korea says it tested long-range cruise missiles: Politico reports it was North Korea’s first known testing activity in months.
Why North Korea's missile launch is timed to antagonize regime's rivals: DW reports experts say that the timing of the latest launch is important. But they are unsure if more sanctions are the key to successfully restraining North Korea's aggression.
North Korea cruise missile adds new threat as Biden envoy visits Japan: Nikkei reports the US remains ready to meet 'anywhere, anytime without preconditions,' White House says.
SCMP: China calls for restraint as North Korea tests cruise missile able to reach Japan
+ Pyongyang breaks lull in testing with ‘strategic weapon of great significance’, KCNA says, but some experts see moderate military gains
+ Move ahead of Korean denuclearisation talks in Tokyo makes one analyst call for ‘serious pressure’, as concessions only seem to inspire more bad behavior
China’s Xi urges Communist Party ‘Mr. Nice Guys’ to take action
Bloomberg
China seeks stability in Afghanistan: DW reports Beijing seems to have adopted a wait-and-see approach toward Afghanistan. While eyeing potential resource deposits there, China has offered millions in humanitarian aid. But border security seems its utmost concern.
China is becoming more assertive in international legal disputes: Party leaders are using such cases to reshape legal and regulatory norms.
Economist
SCMP: Beijing warns Washington not to allow Taiwan to rename de facto embassy
+ Reported request to the US to change ‘Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office’ to ‘Taiwan Representative Office’ draws a rebuke from Beijing
+ Observers say Washington is trying to test the water with Beijing, which would view a name change as weakening the one-China principle
Huawei ‘infiltrates’ Cambridge University research center: Call for inquiry as Chinese tech giant’s close ties are exposed.
The Times
China’s poor regions worry about climate justice in net-zero push: Polluted coal-reliant provinces made China’s megacities rich. Now Xi Jinping’s green ambitions to curb carbon emissions risk leaving them behind.
Bloomberg
China and India send coal prices soaring amid green-energy push: Squeeze driven by short-term supply disruption and lack of long-term investment.
Nikkei
The triumph of environmental activism in China: A planned dam in China's Red River Valley would have destroyed the habitat of an endangered bird. But a 31-year-old biology student stood up to the authorities and managed to block the project. How did he do it?
Spiegel
Knocking down Chinese tech walls: ‘Kimchi coins’ crackdown, Irish data duds, Maverick’s hands-free jetpack.
FT
Meituan squeezed by Xi's tech crackdown and prosperity drive: Regulatory pressure on food delivery leader has echoes of Alibaba's humbling.
Nikkei
Beijing to break up Ant’s Alipay and force creation of separate loans app: Chinese fintech will turn over user data to new joint venture partly owned by state.
FT
Lacking a better game plan, Beijing will pick off more industries: Need for action on wealth gap underlies squeeze on internet platforms.
Dexter Roberts
Jeep venture takeover push kicks off Stellantis’s China reboot
Bloomberg
China vows to consolidate the bloated electric vehicle industry
Bloomberg
Walmart rethinks its China ‘hypermarket’ strategy amid Alibaba gains
Bloomberg
US and China will both be 'Middle Kingdoms' in future: Bill Emmott: Former Economist editor foresees a bipolar world operating separately.
Nikkei
Poll shows 27% favor Kono as Japan's next ruling party leader: Nikkei reports Ishiba, Kishida next most popular in the runup to election to decide Suga's replacement.
Vietnamese love the US, and China cannot change that: Attempts to turn the Afghanistan withdrawal to Beijing's advantage have failed.
Dien Luong
Reuters: Sydney Airport sale a step closer after improved $17.4 bln offer
EUROPE
Reuters: Analysis: Expensive winter ahead as Europe's power prices surge
Russia holds the largest military exercise in Europe for 40 years: The Zapad-21 drills point to deepening ties between Russia and Belarus.
Economist
Norway’s center-left gains after vote; climate is key issue: AP reports the center-left bloc in Norway appears to have won Monday’s general election, according to the first official projection, which shows the ruling Conservatives would lose power after a campaign dominated by climate change and the future of the country’s oil and gas exploration industry.
Norway’s pro-oil labor party set to oust conservative government
Bloomberg
Norway's leftist opposition set for landslide win, complex talks
Reuters
Another debate win for Scholz puts German chancellery in reach: Social Democrat emerged clear winner, according to viewers.
Politico
German election demographics: Facts and figures: Germany's electorate is aging and shrinking. What will that mean for the German parliament in the post-Merkel era?
DW
The odd couple: How Germany’s Greens embraced business: If, as expected, the party forms part of any coalition government, it will demand companies set net-zero targets.
FT
The rise of Eastern Europe is a forgotten economic success story: While the west focuses on political backsliding, manufacturing prowess is propelling the region forward.
Ruchir Sharma
Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo to run for French president: Socialist says she’ll campaign to build ‘a fairer France.’
Politico
France presidential election: Far-right's Le Pen, Paris mayor Hidalgo kick off campaigns
AFP
When smaller is better: Italian health care goes local after pandemic: The government is ramping up investment in community care and shifting the focus away from big hospitals.
Politico
COVID hospitalizations moving in ‘alarming’ direction, experts and NHS officials say: Independent reports that admissions are once again rising among older age groups, and come at a time of ‘exceptional demand for urgent and emergency care’ within hospitals.
The Times: Covid vaccine passports can still help defeat winter wave, No 10 insists
Boris Johnson hopes to meet Biden for talks at White House: The Times reports Boris Johnson will attempt to patch up Britain’s frayed relationship with the Biden administration at a White House summit between the two leaders penciled in for this month. The prime minister is expected to hold bilateral talks with the president during a four-day trip to the US for the UN general assembly, which starts in New York on September 21.
The gospel according to Keir Starmer: Labour leader prepares mission statement
The Times
Ministers plan more mayoralties to reboot stalled devolution agenda: Local government secretary keen to increase regional powers despite fears Boris Johnson has cooled on idea.
FT
Indyref2 legal battle ‘spoilt by recent embarrassments’
The Times
Time to take destiny in our hands is approaching, says Sturgeon: May’s election victory ‘is an unarguable mandate to implement the SNP manifesto.’
The Times
UK mulls rule change to let banks trade with depositors’ money: Politico reports the so-called ring-fencing regime is stirring up debate in the UK ahead of a key report in October.
The Times: Boris Johnson to support more North Sea drilling despite climate pledge
Ireland fails to enforce EU law against Big Tech: Irish regulator has not resolved 98% of 164 significant data protection complaints.
FT
NORTH AMERICA
Blinken defends US military’s chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal: Secretary of state grilled by Congress over tumultuous end to the 20-year conflict.
FT
Biden, leaders of Australia, India, Japan to meet in person: AP reports President Joe Biden is set to host the leaders of Australia, India, and Japan for a four-way meeting later this month to strategize about COVID-19, climate change, and other issues. Spokesperson Jen Psaki announced Monday that Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga will travel to Washington to meet with Biden at the White House on Sept. 24.
Axios: Biden to host "Quad" summit with leaders of Australia, India, and Japan
Biden to host Indo-Pacific leaders for first White House summit
Bloomberg
Joe Biden calls Xi Jinping in bid to reset strained US-China relations: US and Chinese presidents speak for first time since February after unproductive talks between lower-level officials.
FT
Washington risks Beijing ire over proposal to rename Taiwan’s US office: China says it ‘firmly opposes’ any American official interaction with Taipei.
FT
White House officials consider probe into China’s industrial subsidies: Discussions could lead to a new round of punitive tariffs.
FT
Today: California Recall Election
What to know about California Gov. Newsom’s recall
WP
California recall puts governor’s pandemic leadership to the test: Voters decide Tuesday whether to oust Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom; opponents say his COVID-19 policies were too restrictive.
WSJ
CNN: Republicans need a historic polling miss to win the California recall
False election claims in California reveal a new normal for GOP: In an echo of 2020, Republicans are pushing baseless allegations of cheating in the state’s recall race even before Election Day.
NYT
GOP 2024 hopefuls tread carefully around Trump: Politico reports top Republicans are trapped in political limbo, always aware they are operating under Trump’s watchful eye.
DeSantis milks out-of-state travel to lay possible 2024 foundation: Politico reports the governor's trip to Nebraska is part of his ongoing split-screen effort.
Trump’s White House chief of staff is target of Capitol attack records request: House select committee investigating 6 January wants telecom and social media companies to preserve records on Mark Meadows.
Guardian
‘We will have a really long, long memory’: Greens calling businesses’ bluff on climate change: Activists want the companies that have called for federal climate action to get behind the $3.5 trillion package: "We will have a really long, long memory."
Politico
Can a green-economy boom town be built to last? The race to make electric vehicles is turning some places into winners. Normal, Ill., is one of them. But it has seen good times go sour in the past.
NYT
Toyota says US EV bill gives 'exorbitant tax breaks' to wealthy
Reuters
Texas wanted to be the tech haven of the US. Its new abortion bill and other measures are causing workers to rethink their move. WP reports tech workers are marking Texas off the list of places they’d consider working after the state passed the nation’s most restrictive abortion law.
Texans find themselves on the frontline of US culture wars: Restrictive abortion and voting laws introduced as state’s cities become increasingly liberal and diverse.
FT
Salesforce offers to help employees leave in wake of Texas' restrictive abortion law: NBC News reports the law, which bans abortions after six weeks of pregnancy, has unique enforcement provisions allowing private citizens, rather than state officials, to sue abortion providers.
Dems hurtle toward a new fiscal cliff: Politico reports Congress is approaching hard deadlines on the debt ceiling and funding the government, at the same time Democrats are focused on passing spending bills.
Stablecoins face crackdown as US discusses risk council review
Bloomberg
Gary Gensler on Crypto, SPACs, and Robinhood: Wall Street’s top cop wants to police new finance with old rules.
Jen Wieczner
Facebook says its rules apply to all. Company documents reveal a secret elite that’s exempt. A program known as XCheck has given millions of celebrities, politicians, and other high-profile users special treatment, a privilege many abuse.
WSJ
REST OF THE WORLD
Over 100 world leaders to attend UN gathering in person: AP reports more than 100 heads of state and government are planning to attend the UN General Assembly’s annual gathering of world leaders in person next week, including US President Joe Biden, King Abdullah II of Jordan and the presidents of Brazil and Venezuela, according to the latest speakers list.
OECD seeks global plan for carbon prices to avoid trade wars: FT reports the Paris-based group calls on the EU to back proposals that recognize countries have different green policies.
Cuban scientists reject 'Havana Syndrome' claims
AFP
Argentina’s ruling Peronists suffer heavy defeat in midterm primaries: FT reports President Alberto Fernández could lose senate majority if results are repeated in November.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Curation and commentary by Marc A. Ross | Founder @ Caracal
