May, Merkel, Michigan, Moller-Maersk, Motley Crue
Caracal Global Daily
March 21, 2019
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross
Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia
Caracal Global Daily = News + Analysis at the Intersection of Globalization + Disruption + Politics
TOP FIVE
✔️ Trump signals US to keep tariffs on China after deal
✔️ Rudderless Britain lurches towards no-deal
✔️ Dockworkers v robots, Los Angeles edition
✔️ Biden weighing steps to reassure voters concerned about his age
✔️ Ford said it would build its first autonomous vehicles in Michigan
ROSS RANT
Bloomberg Radio: Sound On: Trade, Fed, and Mueller: Bloomberg Chief Washington Correspondent Kevin Cirilli spoke with Mattie Duppler, Senior Fellow at the National Taxpayers Union and former Coalitions Director for the House GOP Conference, and Marc Ross, founder of Caracal Global.
You can listen here: https://bloom.bg/2JuIVy7
GLOBALIZATION
Trump signals US to keep tariffs on China after deal: WSJ reports, with the U.S. and China preparing for a fresh round of face-to-face negotiations, President Trump said the U.S. expected to keep tariffs on Chinese goods in place for a “substantial period of time,” even after a deal.
I can't think Lighthizer and Mnuchin thought this announcement was a good idea.
Hard to see how Xi's domestic politics will allow him to agree to a deal with Trump where tariffs are still in place. Even in Communist governments, factions and special interests exist.
AFP: US trade negotiators to visit China on March 28-29
Fund managers see a China slowdown as the top "tail risk."
FT: US agriculture secretary warns on China’s trade tactics
Sonny Perdue says Beijing’s ‘attitudes’ are hardening in talks to resolve spat.
Bullet train propaganda points to Xi reign beyond 2022: Nikkei reports, China's high-speed trains have been named "Fuxing," or rejuvenation, in accordance with Chinese Xi Jinping's slogan of the "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation."
China asks citizens to study the revised constitution for 'new era.'
Italy’s populists split by lure of Chinese Belt and Road billions: The Times reports, the populist coalition governing Italy has fractured over plans to sign up for China’s Belt and Road infrastructure project on the eve of Xi’s visit to Rome. Italy is poised to become the first G7 country to commit to the programme, which aims to boost Beijing’s strategic reach while promising to improve transport links around the world. Critics in the United States and Europe say that Belt and Road is a plot to increase China’s geopolitical clout and push partners into debt. They have warned Italy against signing up.
Angela Merkel to UK: EU's 'door is wide open' despite Brexit: DW reports, the German chancellor has said she is open to a "short extension" to the Brexit deadline on certain conditions. She told the German parliament that the EU is committed to close cooperation with the UK in the future.
May heads to Brussels to plead for Brexit extension: FT reports, Prime minister faces backlash for blaming MPs for Britain’s political impasse.
Britain pleads for Brexit delay as crucial EU summit gets underway: WP reports, European leaders gathered for last-minute talks that could determine whether Britain crashes out of the bloc without a safety net in eight days, creating economic problems across the continent.
The European Union is poised to take control of Britain’s exit by rejecting Theresa May’s request for a three-month delay and setting a new withdrawal date of no later than 22 May.
May unites MPs in anger against her address: The Times reports ,PM Theresa May has been told that her attempt to turn voters’ anger on MPs opposing her deal has “trashed” efforts to win over Labour support. The prime minister’s attack on parliament appeared to have backfired today as MPs from opposing sides in the Brexit debate united to condemn her.
The Bank of England on Thursday expressed concerns that further "uncertainties" over a "cliff-edge" no-deal Brexit "could have a significant effect on spending" by businesses.
Robert Shirley: Theresa May’s very big gamble risks a no-deal Brexit: If EU is not bluffing, and Commons cannot agree on an alternative, then the clock will run down.
Iain Martin: Rudderless Britain lurches towards no-deal: As May and the EU play an idiotic game of chicken, this Brexit crisis has worrying echoes of the 2008 financial crash.
Lionel Laurent: Hard Brexit means a hard border for 6,000 stocks: The toxic political mood is infecting financial regulation. European and British supervisors are planning drastic measures in the event of no deal.
Brexit to cost billions in income losses across Europe: DW reports, a new study shows that the British and the Germans would be the worst hit with total annual losses of up to €67 billion. People in the US and China could actually see a rise in incomes after Britain's exit from the EU.
Will Brexit spell bust for architecture? LAT reports, in an interview on the eve of the Brexit vote in 2016, Dutch architect Rem Koolhaas predicted a future of “pea soup and a complete absence of coffee” if the referendum passed and Great Britain withdrew from the European Union. For the European sophisticate, long a part-time London resident, Brexit would mean “Little England” all over again — a small-minded, prim and grim place without espresso. Koolhaas said the European Union “modernized the English mentality,” helping the country find “a way of being English, or being continental and English.”
Russia: Wage growth has slowed sharply over the past year by remains in positive territory - Higher oil prices are boosting the ruble.
Norway hikes interest rate: AFP reports, Norway's central bank raised its key interest rate on Thursday and said it would continue to tighten its monetary policy due to the strength of the Scandinavian country's economy, in contrast to a slowdown in much of the rest of the world.
Yellow Vests: The French government's decision to deploy the army as a backup during Saturday's weekly "yellow vest" protests has drawn fire, with the opposition warning of the risk of using soldiers for law and order. Under pressure to prevent a repeat of last weekend's rioting and looting on the Champs-Elysees in Paris, the government on Wednesday announced plans to redeploy soldiers from the anti-terrorism Sentinelle patrol force to help police guard public buildings.
Brazil is dropping its visa requirement for US citizens. Beginning June 17, US, Canadian, Australian, and Japanese citizens can spend 90 days in Brazil from their date of entry, Brazil Tourism said in a statement.
When democracy is no longer the only path to prosperity: Countries rated ‘not free’ are increasingly able to offer their citizens high incomes. Will democratic ideals lose their appeal?https://on.wsj.com/2WkHW5r
DISRUPTION
Dockworkers v robots, Los Angeles edition: FT reports, dockworkers in Los Angeles are making a last stand against the automation of lucrative port jobs, in a backlash that affects a vital link in global trade. The International Longshore & Warehouse Union is fighting a plan by Denmark’s AP Moller-Maersk to use unmanned electric vehicles instead of diesel trucks to shuttle shipping containers around the largest port terminal in the US. The move would cut the company’s costs by reducing the need for truck drivers, and aid compliance with California’s tough air pollution rules.
New Goldman Sachs dress code points to a sartorial double standard in the workplace: LAT reports, Goldman Sachs, one of the last bastions of crisp-collared, bespoke-suited workplace attire, has loosened up. It announced an official "firm-wide flexible dress code" earlier this month. And at last — after the long, slow undoing of corporate formality — business casual seems to have triumphed in the American workplace. But for women and minorities who have been playing corporate catch-up for decades, a more casual dress code presents its own complications.
POLITICS
Powell presser: The Federal Reserve now believes its monetary policy is back to normal... The central bank's stance was more dovish than many analysts had expected.
The central bank's forecast for longer-term economic growth remains below 2%.
The market is increasingly convinced that the next move by the Federal Reserve will be a rate cut.
US whiskey exports dry up as tariffs bite: Reuters reports, American whiskey exports slumped in the second half of 2018, taking a blow from higher duties by the country’s trading partners following President Donald Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.
The US Navy wants to shrink its aircraft carrier fleet: Bloomberg reports, the US military once wanted 12 carriers as part of a larger naval buildup. Its latest budget proposal would shrink that number to 10.
Reuters: Solar and wind firms call the 'Green New Deal’ too extreme
US court halts drilling in Wyoming over climate change: FT reports, a judge says the government must consider greenhouse gas impact before selling oil leases.
Oil: Crude oil jumped in response to the news of lower US stockpiles, with WTI futures hitting $60/bbl.
LAT: Fentanyl overdose deaths in the US have been doubling every year
Dump the Electoral College? Some 2020 Democrats back liberals’ goals: Bloomberg reports, there's a competition among progressives to push changes to the Constitution and Washington institutions.
Democratic candidates, pressured by party base, split on how liberal to be: WSJ reports, a push to the left among activists and freshman lawmakers is prompting 2020 contenders to test positions seen as politically untenable four years ago. The emerging camps have Bernie Sanders on the left, pragmatists closer to the center, and a third group trying to balance both.
Does being super liberal win Wood County, Ohio? Macomb County, Michigan? Orange County, FL?
Biden weighing steps to reassure voters concerned about his age: NYT reports, if he runs for the White House, Joe Biden and his advisers are considering announcing a running mate early, well before the nomination is sealed. They’re also considering a possible pledge to serve only one term, according to multiple party officials.
South Carolina 2020 Poll (Emerson College):
Biden 37%
Sanders 21%
Harris 9%
Booker 6%
O’Rourke 5%
Warren 5%
Trump has a positive approval rating of 50% with a disapproval of 44%
Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) might have some election trouble in 2020, with 52% saying it’s time to give someone else a chance and 48% saying he should be re-elected
COMMERCE
Facebook: AI tools failed to catch New Zealand attack video: WSJ reports, Facebook acknowledged that the gruesome video of the New Zealand mosque shootings revealed gaps in its handling of live broadcasts by users, but pushed back against the idea of setting up a time delay.
Doomed jets lacked 2 safety features that Boeing sold as extras: NYT reports, the planes that crashed in Ethiopia and Indonesia weren’t equipped with optional safety features that could, in part, have helped the pilots detect erroneous readings. Now the company is making one of those features standard.
Evidence is mounting that a faulty software system may have crashed two planes.
Tencent reported its sharpest ever quarterly profit decline on Thursday, hit by China’s regulatory review of new games and one-off charges, and warned of slower video game launches due to a prolonged approval process.
Ford named former Amazon and Snap executive Tim Stone as chief financial officer.
Ford said it would build its first autonomous vehicles at a $50 million production center in Michigan as part of an earlier pledge to invest $900 million in manufacturing operations in the state. Production of the self-driving vehicles is expected to start in 2021, with hybrid vehicles being shipped in to be fitted with driverless technology, the carmaker said.
Bloomberg: In yoga pants era, J. Crew's Madewell finds strength in denim
CULTURE
‘The Dirt’: Netflix's biopic about the hair metal band Motley Crue, revisits the rampant misogyny of a bygone era with little to no self-awareness, premieres Friday. The film is based on the group’s 2001 book, “The Dirt: Confessions of the World's Most Notorious Rock Band.” The book put the washed-up metal band back on the radar with lurid tales of bad-boy debauchery.
