Caracal Insider Daily | January 30, 2018

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SOTU, Brexit, Silvio Berlusconi, Wang Qishan, iPhone X, Grammy Awards, Chief Wahoo

Caracal Insider Daily
January 30, 2018
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia

Caracal Insider = Global Business News at the Intersection of Politics + Policy + Profits

Subscribe here
https://goo.gl/bSQKwA

TOP FIVE

✔️ EU expects Britain to ask for secret longer transition

✔️ Silvio Berlusconi’s astonishing (and unsurprising) return

✔️ China’s Xi looks to ally to fix US relations

✔️ Trump's State of the Union aims for unity

✔️ Cleveland Indians to drop Chief Wahoo logo
 

GEOECONOMICS

EU expects Britain to ask for secret longer transition: The Times reports, European Union negotiators expect Britain to seek an extended exit transition period and suggest that the request will remain secret to avoid a rebellion by Eurosceptic cabinet ministers and backbench MPs. Britain will leave the EU at midnight on March 29 next year but is preparing to agree by this March the terms of a transition to help to limit the disruption for business.

British Lords get ready to disrupt Brexit: Bloomberg reports, the road out of the European Union gets bumpier as key legislation heads to the upper house of parliament.

Brexit disarray finally brings UK business out fighting: FT reports, looming deadlines have now caused companies to increase their pressure on the government.

This leaked government Brexit analysis says the UK will be worse off in every scenario: BuzzFeed News has seen a new Brexit impact assessment, which says leaving the EU will adversely hit almost every sector and every UK region. https://goo.gl/aLVzFj

Carles Puigdemont seeks return for investiture: The Times reports, Carles Puigdemont was yesterday preparing to ask for permission to return to Spain despite facing arrest on charges of rebellion, sedition and embezzling public funds. The fugitive Catalan separatist leader was planning to ask Spain’s supreme court to be allowed to attend a debate and vote in the Catalan parliament tomorrow where he could win back his job as regional president.

Silvio Berlusconi’s astonishing (and unsurprising) return: NYT reports, a master of reinvention, the three-time former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi is poised to win in Italy’s election despite, well, everything.

China’s Xi looks to ally to fix US relations: WSJ reports, Xi considers enlisting Wang Qishan, known as the ‘fireman’ for crisis postings, as tensions rise.

US companies complain of unfair treatment in China, want pressure but not war: WP reports, American companies to feel less welcome than before in China and want the U.S. government to put more pressure on Beijing to level the playing field, the American Chamber of Commerce in China said Tuesday. William Zarit, chairman of AmCham China, warned that Chinese officials had told him they would “definitely” retaliate if the U.S. administration introduced tariffs or other restrictions on Chinese imports as a result of ongoing investigations into steel and aluminum imports and intellectual property violations.

US firms say China’s business climate is warming, survey finds: WSJ reports, the upbeat tone comes despite a rise in China-US trade tensions and worries over-regulation.

"59% of companies rank China among the top three priorities of global investment plans, up from 56% last year."

Fudged numbers revealed as officials' performance redefined: Caixin reports, new focus on quality over speed in economic growth forces local governments to come clean.

Caixin: Beijing has tools to prevent systemic collapse, regulator says

Cool.

China's rise is over: Standford University Press reports, while international relations experts marvel at China’s growth, the PRC’s own elites take a more sober view. https://goo.gl/KcLSU3

You'll be hearing more of this = China has risen and India is rising in the coming years.

79: The number of attempts it took to clone Zhong Zhong and Hua Hua, two genetically identical monkeys created in a Chinese laboratory. 

AP: Drought-hit Cape Town to set up disaster operations HQ amid water crisis

Bloomberg: Venezuelan pirates rule the most lawless market on Earth


AMERICAN POLITICS

'He has to be normal': Trump's State of the Union aims for unity after a polarizing year: Politico reports, facing a grim midterm election outlook for his party, the president plans to focus on selling agenda items with a bipartisan touch.

Bloomberg: Trump won’t announce NAFTA withdrawal in State of Union, sources say

Trump’s State of the Union speech will reiterate promises to ‘rebuild the military’: Military Times reports, Trump’s State of the Union address on Tuesday will repeat his promises to “rebuild our military” and defeat terrorism around the globe, with specific reprimands directed at North Korea for aggressive military moves in recent months. 

Immigrants to be in the spotlight at State of Union: WSJ reports, Trump plans Tuesday to outline in his State of the Union address a broad agenda for the coming year, but he is also expected to wade into a more immediate political showdown: an immigration deal. 

SOTU is set for 9:00 pm ET.

47%: The percentage of foreign investment in the state of Kentucky that comes from Japan. 

Hung out to dry twice, Tennessee city stumped by Trump's washer tariffs: Reuters reports, when Trump imposed steep tariffs on imported washing machines last week it was a “Not Again” moment for officials in this north Tennessee city that has lost jobs to an international trade dispute before. The move threatens to stunt the launch of a new LG Electronics washing machine factory under construction in Clarksville, just four years after the U.S.-China trade fight over solar panels scuttled a nearly $1.2 billion Hemlock Semiconductor polysilicon plant. “It’s like déjà vu for Clarksville, to say ‘how can this be happening twice to us,'” the city’s mayor, Kim McMillan, told Reuters.

"Capital expenditures are the lifeblood of a growing economy, and without these expenditures, the economy will just muddle along." -- Chuck Butler - creator and editor of A Pfennig For Your Thoughts.

Rising stars collide in shadow 2020 primary: Politico reports, a glut of Democratic contenders could fracture the party in some of the bluest states in the nation.

"Two rising stars in California are about to collide: Sen. Kamala Harris of San Francisco and Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti. As potential Democratic presidential candidates in 2020, the pair might soon be asking the activists and donors who have known them their entire political careers to finally choose sides."

Chelsea Manning's campaign website is based in Iceland. Why?: Defense One reports, for one thing, it's harder for US law enforcement to search. That may matter to the Wikileaks contributor-turned-US Senate candidate. 

ENTERPRISE

Facebook plans to put all of users' privacy settings in one place ahead of new European Union regulations set to take effect in May.

Facebook acquired identity authentication startup Confirm.io

27%: Xiaomi has toppled Samsung as the manufacturer with the largest market share (27% vs Samsung's 25%) in India’s smartphone market, according to Canalys.

NYT: Side benefit to Amazon’s headquarters contest: Local expertise

"Detroit was not chosen as a finalist for Amazon’s second headquarters, but its bid gave the company a peek at the kind of tax breaks the city was willing to offer."

WSJ: Apple to cut output of the new iPhone X amid weak demand

Waymo revealed an agreement to acquire thousands of minivans from Fiat Chrysler.

TRENDS

29.4: A quality pair of comfortable, stylish premium jeans requires 29.4 minutes of manufacturing time.

Digiday: Bloomberg’s Twitter network TicToc is getting 750,000 daily viewers

Green buildings: Researchers at Harvard University calculated that between 2000 and 2016, green-certified buildings in America prevented up to 405 premature deaths, 21,000 sick days at work and 16,000 lost school days by reducing local air pollution.

CULTURE

The 2018 Grammy Awards was a tone-deaf, out-of-touch mess https://goo.gl/xmxeH

The CBS telecast of the Grammy Awards is down a steep 21 percent from 2017 in early numbers, potentially spelling an all-time low.

SPORT

Cleveland Indians to drop Chief Wahoo logo from uniforms in 2019.

The New England Patriots have participated in 37 playoff games since 2001, losing only nine of them. 

Caracal Insider Daily | January 29, 2018

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5G, Trade, India, Britain, Alessia Cara, Ingvar Kamprad, Uniqlo

Caracal Insider Daily
January 29, 2018
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia

Caracal Insider = Global Business News at the Intersection of Politics + Policy + Profits

Subscribe here
https://goo.gl/bSQKwA

TOP FIVE

✔️ USG weighs building national 5G network to counter China

✔️ On trade, world wonders whose rules US plays by

✔️ India expects economy to grow 7-7.5% in 2018/2019

✔️ 'I'm very popular in Britain. I get a lot of fan mail'

✔️ Alessia Cara wins Best New Artist Grammy

GEOECONOMICS

US government weighs building national 5G network to counter China: WSJ reports, some White House officials view next-generation 5G wireless service as a “key area of competition,” and they say that the threat from China justifies a government effort like the construction of the interstate highway system, an internal memo shows.

NYT: Oil boom gives the US a new edge in energy and diplomacy

Why Canada is the next frontier for shale oil: Reuters reports, Canadian producers and global oil majors are increasingly exploring the Duvernay and Montney formations, which they say could rival the most prolific US shale fields.

WP: NAFTA talks that were supposed to end last year might continue into 2019

Canada, Mexico reject reworking NAFTA corporate arbitration system: WSJ reports, Mexico and Canada have rejected a proposal by the Trump administration to remake a corporate arbitration system that is a key part of the North American Free Trade Agreement, according to people involved in talks to update the pact.

US farmers have much to lose if NAFTA deal collapses: Reuters reports, a collapse of NAFTA, which U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to scrap, could create the most profound disruption for US farmers who produce grains, meats and dairy products sold to Canada and Mexico. 

On trade, world wonders whose rules US plays by: Trump’s message at Davos aimed to soothe anxieties of business and political elites, but it left the world unsettled: Whose rules does the U.S. intend to abide by? And why does it punish so many countries when only one, China, is systematically breaking the rules?
WSJ - Greg Ip

America rejects the world it made: The consequences to turning against the global rules-based order are unpredictable.
FT - Gideon Rachman

China should ‘be ready for a trade war’ after Donald Trump’s Davos speech: SCMP reports, analysts say US president was pointing the finger at Beijing when he said US would not tolerate unfair trade practices, and it should prepare to respond.

Trump’s hard-line “America First” trade agenda was retrofitted at Davos into a more reasonable “America First, but not America alone.”

At Davos, the real star may have been China, not Trump: NYT reports, one of the best-attended speeches at the forum was that of Liu He, a member of China’s ruling Politburo, who promoted the Belt and Road initiative, also known as One Belt, One Road. Participants here said the Chinese initiative was already rivaling more established, traditionally American-led, international institutions.

Command and control: China’s Communist Party extends reach into foreign companies: WP reports, American and European companies involved in joint ventures with state-owned Chinese firms have been asked in recent months to give internal Communist Party cells an explicit role in decision-making, executives and business groups say. The party’s demand would give its cells a formal role in approving management decisions, such as investment plans or personnel changes. And that is ringing alarm bells. https://goo.gl/AFLjdd

New task for old ally of China's President Xi suggests bigger role ahead: CNA reports, China implied on Monday a new job could be in the offing for Wang Qishan, the powerful former top graft-buster and a close ally of President Xi Jinping, with an announcement that he had been chosen as a delegate to the annual meeting of parliament.

Bloomberg: Singapore overtakes China as largest Asian investor in US property

Nikkei: India expects economy to grow 7-7.5% in 2018/2019


Welcome to the club: Xi takes anti-corruption hunt to all Chinese: Nikkei reports, new commission has power to go after doctors, nurses and teachers. https://goo.gl/RSpd7W

Bloomberg: Australia aims to break into top 10 of global defense exporters

Italian election campaign thrives on trash talk: AP reports, In Italy’s general election campaign, Rome’s uncollected garbage has become fodder for politicians — and at least one pig. The capital’s dirty streets, lined with brimming-over, nasty-smelling garbage bins, are providing a handy way to trash the performance of Mayor Virginia Raggi, arguably the most high-profile office-holder of the 5-Star Movement. Ex-premier Matteo Renzi, whose own Democratic Party has taken quite a drubbing in recent opinion polls, evoked the she-wolf, associated with the legend of ancient Rome’s founding. He quipped that “before, there was the wolf, now there’s the pig as Rome’s symbol to the world.”

British demand to vet laws threatens Brexit talks: FT reports, Brussels to insist UK abide by EU laws ‘as a member state’ during 20-month period.

Guardian: Theresa May told to clarify Brexit stance or face no-confidence vote

"Prime minister ‘as vulnerable as she’s ever been’ as pressure from both sides of Tory party grows"

Challenged on all fronts, Britain's May faces pressure over Brexit law: Reuters reports, British Prime Minister Theresa May came under further pressure over her Brexit blueprint on Monday, with members of the upper house of parliament saying there were "fundamental flaws" in a law crucial to the departure.

Speech ‘canceled’: Bloomberg reports, May has scrapped plans to give a third landmark Brexit speech because of the risk of cabinet infighting spilling out in to the open

Guardian: Trump interview: 'I'm very popular in Britain. I get a lot of fan mail'

French poaching: Bloomberg reports, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told Japanese business leaders France would welcome companies that need to relocate from the U.K. because of Brexit. “First of all, the presence of the U.K. in the EU is finished,” he said in Tokyo. “Japanese companies must become aware of the consequences.”

LAT: River Seine rises, causing widespread flooding in France; bottom floor of Louvre at risk

AMERICAN POLITICS

Bloomberg: All signs point to big Democratic wins in 2018

"Trump’s approval rating at this stage of his presidency, 36 percent, is lower than any of his predecessors going back to Harry Truman."

"Since the end of World War II, the party in control of the White House has, on average, had a net loss of 26 House seats in midterm elections."

Tomorrow: Trump delivers the SOTU at 9:00 pm ET

Teleprompter Trump vs. Twitter Trump

The plot against America: Decades before he ran the Trump campaign, Paul Manafort’s pursuit of foreign cash and shady deals laid the groundwork for the corruption of Washington. https://goo.gl/xeu5J3

ENTERPRISE

Coincheck, a big cryptocurrency exchange, said it had been robbed of more than $530m by hackers. The Tokyo-based bourse has promised to return about $425m of the digital money, held in NEM coins, to the 260,000 investors affected by the alleged heist.

WSJ: Alibaba, Foxconn invest in Chinese electric-vehicle maker

Mr. Uniqlo's 5 tips for management success: Tadashi Yanai on lessons he has learned from building the fashion empire. https://goo.gl/8ZybQs

Breaking: Dr Pepper Snapple and Keurig Green Mountain to merge

Google has made its first ride-hailing investment in Asia by pumping money into Go-Jek.

FT Global MBA Ranking 2018:

1. Stanford Graduate School of Business    
2. Insead
3. University of Pennsylvania: Wharton
4. London Business School
5. Harvard Business School    
6. University of Chicago: Booth
7. Columbia Business School
8. Ceibs
9. MIT: Sloan    
10. University of California at Berkeley: Haas
37. Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University
37. University of North Carolina: Kenan-Flagler


Full list here: https://goo.gl/dLNQzX

TRENDS

The follower factory: Everyone wants to be popular online. Some even pay for it. Inside social media’s black market.
NYT

Somehow this is news that peeps pays for social media followers, engagement, and amplification.

CULTURE

LAT: Bruno Mars, Kendrick Lamar the big winners at Grammy Awards

AFP: Alessia Cara wins Best New Artist Grammy


Bruno Mars won Album, Record and Song of the Year at the Grammy Awards. I myself have no idea the name the album, the record, or the song, sorry.

RIP: Ingvar Kamprad, a Swedish entrepreneur, became one of the world’s richest men by turning simply-designed, low-cost furniture into the Ikea empire.

SPORT

Australian Open: Caroline Wozniacki won her first major singles title and Roger Federer his 20th.

LAT: Rumors of Zlatan Ibrahimovic linked to the Galaxy are back

Super Bowl: Philadelphia vs. New England (-4.5)

Caracal Insider Daily | January 25, 2018

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Macron, Merkel, May, Trump, Davos, Alibaba + Kroger, Churchill, Beckham

Caracal Insider Daily
January 25, 2018
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia

Caracal Insider = Global Business News at the Intersection of Politics + Policy + Profits

Subscribe here
https://goo.gl/bSQKwA

What's a Caracal? https://goo.gl/wDfPU6

TOP FIVE

✔️ Macron leads France back into diplomatic limelight

✔️ Europe is back. And rejecting Trumpism

✔️ Trump out to show Davos elite he knows best

✔️ Alibaba and Kroger discuss partnership

✔️ The wardrobe of Winston Churchill

GEOECONOMICS

Macron leads France back into the diplomatic limelight: Spiegel reports, his seemingly never-ending handshake with Trump may have attracted the most attention. But beyond the headlines, French President Emmanuel Macron is changing his country's role in the world.

"France is back." -- French President Emmanuel Macron @ Davos

CNBC: France's Macron says globalization is going through a major crisis

Germany: Angela Merkel would lead a six-month minority government before calling new elections under contingency plans being drawn up by senior conservatives on the eve of coalition talks.

Europe is back. And rejecting Trumpism: NYT reports, Macron’s hourlong speech before the annual gathering of the world’s wealthy and powerful in the Swiss Alps came on the same day that German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni issued their own forceful speeches toward advancing European integration while defending the notion of international cooperation.

Switzerland embraces cryptocurrency culture: FT reports, the alpine country emerges as global hub for initial coin offerings.

90% of growth will be outside the EU, and Brexit means Britain can benefit
The Times - Liam Fox

Ross says US won’t be a ‘sucker’ on trade: FT reports, US commerce secretary pushes panelists to ‘name a less protectionist country.’

US warns it will step up trade measures in 2018: FT reports, Mnuchin and Ross defend Trump administration against charges of protectionism.

WP: Trump will tell globalists at Davos that his nationalist agenda is working

Bloomberg: Trump out to show Davos elite he knows best


The buffoon presidency? Davos elites learn to live with Trump: Politico reports, the president will arrive in Switzerland to find global business leaders ready to welcome him — or at least to say he hasn’t been as bad as they thought he'd be.

Look for DJT to boast about US economic performance during his first year in office — unemployment down, the stock market up, robust growth, and tax reform. 

Tomorrow: Trump will speak with CNBC live at 6:00 am ET and will give his formal speech to Davos starting at 8:00 am ET time.

US destroyer tracking Russian spy ship off US coast: Navy Times reports, the US Navy is currently tracking a Russian spy ship spotted off the coast of North Carolina.

WSJ: US Commerce Secretary slams Beijing for protectionist actions under free-trade rhetoric

Sino FDI: China hauled in $144 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) last year — it’s most ever.

“I think globalization cannot be stopped. Nobody can stop globalization. Nobody can stop trade. And I believe, if trade stops, war starts.” -- Jack Ma of Alibaba @ Davos

Today: US-China Economy and Security Review Commission hearing on China Belt and Road Initiative at 9:45 am ET.

Reuters: Mexico’s drug cartels, now hooked on fuel, cripple the country’s refineries

Outspoken World Bank chief economist Paul Romer exits: FT reports, emails reveal clashes over issues ranging from grammar to methodology.

AMERICAN POLITICS

NYT: Trump says he is willing to speak under oath to Mueller

Mueller moving quickly: Bloomberg reports, US Special Counsel Robert Mueller is moving faster than expected and appears to be wrapping up at least one key part of his investigation — whether Trump obstructed justice. 

Sessions interviewed in Russia probe: The Hill reports, Attorney General Jeff Sessions was interviewed last week by special counsel Robert Mueller’s team as part of the Justice Department's investigation into Russian election meddling. 

Trump administration backs bills to toughen foreign investment rules: Reuters reports, the Trump administration supports bipartisan bills in Congress to toughen U.S. foreign investment rules amid growing concern about Chinese efforts to buy U.S. high-tech companies, the White House said in a statement on Wednesday. The legislation would broaden the government's power to stop foreign purchases of US firms by strengthening the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS).

AP:Kushners drop much-criticized effort to raise Chinese cash

Duckworth to be first sitting US senator to give birth: AP reports, Illinois Sen. Tammy Duckworth is pregnant with her second child. She will be the first U.S. senator to give birth while in office. 

California dreaming: For Democrats to flip the House this year, they’ll have to take some key seats in California.

ENTERPRISE

Walmart applies for 3D image patent for online grocery: BI reports, Walmart recently applied for a patent for a system that allows customers to preview food items selected for their online orders through pictures, according to CB Insights. The system, which is referred to as a “Fresh Online Experience” in the patent, would use 3D scanning to show online shoppers in-store items.

Alibaba and Kroger have had preliminary discussions about a partnership, apparently in a response to Amazon’s grocery moves. 

WP: Will millennials kill Costco? https://goo.gl/pSq16v

CNBC: Nine West could be the next retailer to file for bankruptcy

Reuters: Qualcomm signs $2 billion sales MOUs with Lenovo, Xiaomi, vivo, and OPPO

The EU fines Qualcomm $1.2 billion for anti-competitive practices.

GoDaddy has acquired Main Street Hub, a provider of social media marketing tools, for $125 million.

TechCrunch: Uber CEO hopes to have self-driving cars in service in 18 months

The next version of Apple's iPhone software will let people view their health records.

NBC: Tourism to US under Trump is down, costing $4.6 billion and 40,000 jobs

TRENDS

‘Never get high on your own supply’ – why social media bosses don’t use social media: Guardian reports, Developers of platforms such as Facebook have admitted that they were designed to be addictive. Should we be following the executives’ example and going cold turkey – and is it even possible for mere mortals? https://goo.gl/eTwggX

CULTURE

The wardrobe of Winston Churchill: The Rake reports, with the recent release of Darkest Hour, we examine Winston Churchill’s style and how it was recreated through the film’s authentic touches. https://goo.gl/xGPtxh

Elton John has announced his retirement from touring with a tour that will last for three years. 

SPORT

Beckham plans to unveil Miami MLS team on Monday: AP reports, Beckham and his partners are planning a Monday event to formally announce Miami’s new MLS team, as well as its name and logo, a person with direct knowledge of the situation told The Associated Press. A spokesman for Beckham did not immediately respond to a request for comment. His group has said it wants the new team to begin play in the 2020 season.