Sound More Interesting at Cocktails Memo | September 22, 2023

25 talking points for better conversation at cocktails from news of the past week.

1. Canada is home to the biggest population of Sikhs outside India.

2. The US Navy is carrying out the biggest overhaul of its top-secret undersea surveillance network since the 1950s.

3. China has the largest navy in the world, comprising around 340 ships and submarines, according to the Pentagon's 2022 report on China's military.

4. According to a study by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, China now leads the world in 37 of 44 critical technologies, including advanced materials, synthetic biology, and quantum communications.

5. Japan to launch special investment zones where only English is needed.

6. 2024 in France will be a busy year: A Francophonie summit, the 30th anniversary of the 1994 law mandating the use of the French language, and the Paris Olympic and Paralympic Games.

7. The US $860 billion defense budget is double that of all other NATO members combined.

8. The passing of the Dalai Lama could spark one of the most extraordinary stand-offs in global politics.

9. Economist John Maynard Keynes famously predicted in 1930 that productivity and living standards over the next century would rise so much that by 2030, we would only have to work 15 hours per week.

10. Americans' dismal views of the nation's politics: 65% tell Pew they always or often feel exhausted when thinking about politics.

11. Only 4% of US adults say the political system works extremely or very well.

12. As the US presidential campaign heats up, 63% of Americans say they are dissatisfied with the candidates who have emerged.

13. Not counting steel and aluminum, says MIT, an EV requires six times more minerals than a conventional vehicle.

14. Extracting 1 ton of copper requires digging up around 100 tons of ore.

15. The EU will ban the sale of new fossil fuel cars in 2035.

16. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Europe accounted for 25% of EV sales and 30% of the global stock of EVs in 2022. The US, by contrast, accounted for 10% of EV sales.

17. Oil and gas investment peaked in 2014 at $887 billion. Expectations for 2023 are $579 billion.

18. Since 2009, manufacturing output per hour in the US has grown just 0.2% a year.

19. Apple code-named its modem chip project Sinope, after the nymph in Greek mythology who outsmarted Zeus.

20. Stonegate, Britain's biggest pub company, announced it will charge pubgoers 20p extra for a pint of beer on busy evenings and weekends. It is part of what it called a new "dynamic pricing" policy in some of its venues.

21. A 2018 study by researchers at MIT found that dynamic pricing boosted airline revenues by between 1 and 4 percent compared with traditional pricing.

22. Microsoft will bet its biggest brands on OpenAI by integrating the tech into PowerPoint, Word, and Excel in the coming months.

23. At present, fewer than 1 percent of the world's 30,000 plus AI researchers work on safety issues.

24. The OECD's policy observatory counts 800 AI policies across 60 countries in its database.

25. For Colorado University's practice jerseys, players wear shirts with their social media handles, not their last names, on their backs.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

Let's get geopolitical

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Participants can choose between school sessions, salon dinners, or both.

Hosted monthly in influential cities, ITK Live events won't be recorded and will be governed by not-for-attribution rules so participants can speak and learn freely.

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-Marc

Using data: A lesson from the IBM 305 RAMAC

In the picture is the IBM 305 RAMAC.

In 1956, IBM released this machine as the first supercomputer with a hard disk drive.

Chrysler, in 1957, was the first to put this supercomputer into industrial application.

During the 1960 Squaw Valley Olympic Winter Games, IBM provided data processing for the Games.

One thousand RAMACs were built, but by 1962, the RAMAC was obsolete.

Since the RAMAC was unveiled, the world has only become more inundated with data.

Still, Hollywood can't guarantee a hit.

NHL fans can't confirm the winner of this season's Stanley Cup.

The future UK PM officeholder can't be verified.

And the next chef to beat Bobby Flay can't be affirmed.

We love data.

"Do a survey. Do a focus group. Do a study."

Do more data.

The magic isn't in more data.

Data should not be about trying to use the information to prove a theory but to see what the numbers tell us and to inform us what we might be missing - since our minds like to trick us.

You see, our brains are wired to remember and overvalue the vivid and the shocking. Our brains are wired to remember events that actually happened and not events that could occur.

So often, we comfort ourselves in data to gain a better understanding and some guidance, but the data often falls short.

In their book, Why Everything You Know About Soccer is Wrong, authors Chris Anderson and David Sally concluded that soccer is a 50/50 game.

Half is luck, and half is skill.

With this conclusion, the authors determined two routes to soccer glory.

One is being good. The other is being lucky. You need both to win a championship. But you only need one to win a game.

Disney CEO Bob Iger reached a similar conclusion.

Announcing his company's over-the-top Disney+ streaming service, Iger is going where his customers are—one where customers can customize their viewing experience and seamlessly view Mickey and Minnie on numerous devices.

No survey, focus group, or study is needed to know this is a good move for Disney.

Disney has a customer experience that is visceral and multigenerational.

A customer experience that is deep and broad.

A customer experience forged with skill.

But Iger knows Disney needs more than skill to win the future.

As Iger told CNBC, if you measure the future against the present, the present doesn't stay the present for very long. Today's marketplace has never been more dynamic.

You can't measure what is happening today. You need to measure what you think will happen in the future - that and harness a little luck.

Many of us don't innovate because a current business model shapes the data and information we use and what has gotten us to our current status.

Data that is based on the present and data which is not of the future.

So, be mindful of having too much data as a means to confirm what you want the outcome to be.

Plus, feel free to harness a little bit of luck.

Want to ensure you are using data successfully?

I am a geostrategist and geopolitical business communications advisor.

I founded Caracal, believing that geopolitics is disrupting every industry and sector and that comms pros need actionable insights and ideas to navigate today's interconnected business environment.

Clients rely on Caracal for help navigating today's interconnected business environment with intelligence, strategy, engagement, and education.

Happy to have a chat if it makes sense.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc