Sweden confronts unprecedented security challenges

Sweden is currently facing its most significant security challenges since 1945, according to Henrik Landerholm, the national security adviser.

Landerholm warned that Sweden, once a symbol of peace, neutrality, and social cohesion, is now confronted by challenges on three fronts: Russia, Islamist terrorism, and internal violence related to drug cartels.

Landerholm explained that these threats are interrelated, with Moscow using disinformation and hybrid warfare techniques to exploit vulnerabilities within Swedish society and provoke tension among fundamentalist Muslims. Although each challenge may not be overwhelming, the cumulative impact stresses the system, both socially and politically.

One of Sweden's significant challenges is the existence of "vulnerable areas" – deprived suburbs in large cities with a concentration of residents with migrant backgrounds, low levels of employment and education, and high crime rates. These areas serve as breeding grounds for Islamist groups and armed criminal gangs, contributing to the overall security crisis.

Magnus Hjort, the director-general of the Swedish Psychological Defence Agency, expressed that trust and the social contract have effectively broken down in these vulnerable areas. This breakdown exacerbates Swedish authorities' challenges in addressing the multifaceted security threats.

In response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February of the previous year, Sweden has undergone a radical shift in its "basic security posture," marking the first significant change in over 200 years since adopting neutrality after the Napoleonic wars.

Sweden applied to join NATO three months after the invasion alongside Finland. It has substantially increased its defense budget since 2018, aiming to meet the alliance's target of spending 2 percent of GDP on the military next year.

The Baltic Sea, a significant target for Russian aggression, is a focal point in Sweden's strategic considerations. The government is grappling with its new role on NATO's eastern flank, and the strategic importance of the Swedish island of Gotland, which overlooks key maritime routes through the Baltic, adds complexity to the nation's security challenges. The island could play a pivotal role in any considerable conflict, underscoring the need for comprehensive measures to safeguard Sweden's security in this heightened threat environment.

The government is set to evaluate proposals from the chief of defense staff on reshaping the armed forces to counter the evolving security threats of the 2020s, particularly those posed by Russia.

CAP (Communications Action Point) = Sweden faces a security challenge not seen since 1945 and is a multifaceted threat. Combining hybrid warfare techniques exploits vulnerabilities within Swedish society and forces leaders to think high-low to ensure peace and prosperity.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly

-Marc

What to expect when Biden + Xi meet

Wednesday's meeting between President Joe Biden and Chairman Xi Jinping is set to take place on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in San Francisco, marking their first face-to-face interaction in a year.

Their last face-to-face meeting at the APEC summit in Bali initially raised hopes for a reset in strained US-China relations. However, tensions resurfaced after a Chinese spy balloon was first detected over US airspace high over Alaska in January, prompting Secretary of State Antony Blinken to cancel a planned trip to Beijing. China condemned the US for later shooting down the airship, insisting it was a weather balloon.

This week's primary focus of the Biden-Xi meeting is the restoration of crisis communication channels, particularly among senior military and defense officials.

Both leaders aim to address shared concerns like climate change and macroeconomic stability. Additionally, expect Biden and Xi to tackle areas of disagreement, including the Ukraine War, human rights issues, disputes in the South China Sea, and potential Chinese interference in Taiwan's elections. The US is also pushing for China to take action against the export of fentanyl ingredients, contributing to the opioid epidemic in the United States.

Xi's visit to California marks his first trip to the United States in approximately six years, with his last visit being to former President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. The meeting in San Francisco is strategically crucial, considering the escalating geopolitical and economic competition between the two nations.

Despite the anticipation surrounding the meeting, US officials have downplayed expectations of specific outcomes, emphasizing the primary goal of managing competition and preventing the risk of conflict. The leaders are not expected to issue a joint statement, reflecting the cautious approach to managing expectations.

In addition to meeting with Biden, Xi will attend a dinner with US multinational business executives that Beijing hopes will encourage more investment in China when the country faces stronger economic headwinds.

During July-September, China experienced a concerning development as it recorded a foreign direct investment (FDI) deficit for the first time since 1998. This FDI slowdown is a significant shift from the trend of the past three decades, where foreign investments played a crucial role in driving China's economic growth. A net outflow suggests potential challenges for Beijing in attracting and retaining foreign investments, raising alarms about the health of China's business climate.

The summit signifies the acknowledgment by both nations that they are in the initial phase of a long-term geopolitical competition.

The leaders are now engaged in the complex process of negotiating the terms of this competition, deciding where and how to compete, assessing risks, and determining costs. The meeting is central to these negotiations, reflecting the intricate nature of the evolving US-China relationship.

Enjoy the ride +plan accordingly

-Marc

The Right Stuff: Breaking the sound barrier + communications excellence

In the book The Right Stuff, Tom Wolfe explores the Mercury Project, NASA's first crewed space missions, and the origins of the astronaut program.

Specifically, the book follows the elite military pilots engaged in post-World War II research, flying experimental rocket-powered and high-speed aircraft.

Chuck Yeager receives special attention.

Like the other pilots in the book, Yeager passed one harsh test after another.

Often, when passing so many rigorous tests, humans think of themselves as special.

Unique.

Otherworldly.

Unprecedented.

But Yeager begged to differ.

"There is no such thing as a natural-born pilot. Whatever my aptitude or talents, becoming a proficient pilot was hard work, really a lifetime's learning experience… The best pilots fly more than others; that's why they are best."

Yeager broke the sound barrier on October 14, 1947, at an altitude of 45,000 ft over the Mojave Desert in California.

In 1953, Yeager again became the world's fastest airman, piloting a plane to Mach 2.44.

He was also among the first American pilots to fly a Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-15.

Like Yeager and the world's best pilots, the world's best communicators communicate more than others.

They put in the reps.

They utilize different platforms to share ideas.

They seek high-low communication opportunities.