AI rides the "Hype Cycle"

Parmy Olson, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering technology, is out with a must-read post.

Her column says recent surveys indicate a cooling of enthusiasm for AI in the business world.

Concerns about accuracy, expenses, and data protection have led many companies to scale back their adoption of cutting-edge AI solutions.

Lucidworks reports that the percentage of global firms planning to boost AI spending in the coming year has dropped from 93% to 63%. In the US, AI adoption remains low, with only 5% of companies utilizing the technology, according to Census Bureau data.

This trend aligns with the "trough of disillusionment" phase in Gartner's Hype Cycle, suggesting a period of reassessment following initial excitement.

Leading AI companies like OpenAI and Google continue to set ambitious goals, from generating wealth for humanity to addressing global challenges like climate change and disease. However, these lofty aspirations may be disconnected from practical business needs.

Implementing broad-spectrum AI across an entire workforce often proves challenging. Tech giants promoting AI tools should set realistic expectations about adoption timelines and focus on specific, targeted applications.

AI currently excels in specialized domains rather than as a universal solution. Business leaders who recognize its potential for niche applications, rather than viewing it as an all-encompassing answer, are more likely to leverage AI effectively within their organizations.

The bottom line is that AI's practical business adoption is facing a reality check.

While the technology shows promise, it's not a universal solution.

Companies are becoming more cautious and selective in their AI investments, focusing on specific, targeted applications rather than broad implementation.

For AI to be truly useful in business, leaders need to recognize its strengths in niche areas and avoid treating it as a cure-all technology. This shift represents a more mature, pragmatic approach to AI adoption, moving away from hype and towards finding concrete, valuable use cases.

You can read Olson's full opinion column here.

—Marc

The situation determines the tactic.

A proper tactic is not only about what job needs to be done; it is also about comprehending the environment of the situation.

David Snowden and Mary Boone formulated a useful framework that considers the situation's environment and determines which tactic is best for the job.

On the framework, Harvard Business Review writes: "Many executives are surprised when previously successful leadership approaches fail in new situations, but different contexts call for different kinds of responses. Before addressing a situation, leaders need to recognize which context governs it—and tailor their actions accordingly."

Snowden and Boone called their tool the Cynefin framework.

Cynefin, pronounced ku-nev-in, is a Welsh word that signifies that multiple factors in our environment and our experiences influence us in ways that we can never fully recognize or understand.

Snowden explains that the literal translation of cynefin means “habitat or place, but what it actually means is the place of your multiple belongings.”

By this, Snowden means our perspectives and responses to a situation result from multiple factors, including our multiple experiences, memberships, associations, and surroundings. This mashed-up cocktail influences us in ways we don’t fully recognize or understand.

Unlike other models, the Cynefin framework is a sense-making model and not a categorization model.

A categorization model is the classic 2x2 matrix where the framework precedes the data.

A sense-making model is where the data precedes the framework.

You can watch him discuss the concept of the framework here.

The Cynefin framework allows you to sort a situation into one of five environments:

Simple.

Complicated.

Complex.

Chaotic.

Disorder.

So, depending on your situation, you should respond differently and with a tactic that is proper and proportional to it.

Each situation requires a different tactic. Of the five situations, the first four are the clearest and most obvious.

Still, for the globally ambitious executives reading this, you will most often find yourself in a disorder situation.

The first problem you will face in responding to a disorder situation will occur without you even knowing it.

Your top-of-mind response will be based on your personal preferences and previously most successful tactic shaped by your multiple experiences, memberships, associations, and surroundings.

Your top-of-mind response will be based on accessing the situation based on your preferred tactic.

The danger you will face is your favorite tactic which worked swimmingly in the past for a clear and obvious situation, won’t work now because there is a new reality. A new situation. A new disorder.

The Cynefin framework allows you to recognize that your actions must match the reality you find yourself in through a sense-making process.

If you need help determining the proper tactic for your situation, Caracal is here to help.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

A soaking mistake: Rishi Sunak's ill-fated election call

In a seismic shift in UK politics, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has made the unprecedented and potentially catastrophic move of calling a snap general election for July. This decision has sent shockwaves through his party and the political landscape, leaving many to ponder the motives behind this high-stakes gamble.

Having recently met with well-placed sources in SW1, I can confidently say that the mood within the Conservative Party is one of confusion and concern.

"It's amateur hour," confided one insider, who pointed out Sunak has never had to navigate the treacherous waters of a competitive general election campaign. Worse still, he appears to be surrounded by a team of "political softies" who lack the necessary experience and grit to steer the ship through the coming storm.

It's worth noting that these alarming revelations came to light a whole week before Sunak's fateful decision to call the election. The writing, it seems, was already on the wall.

The campaign reveals the stark reality of Sunak's inexperience and questionable judgment. By making himself the focal point, he has left the Conservative Party in a perilous state, with candidates reportedly left to fend for themselves and party unity at an unprecedented low.

The harsh reality of politics is that the smartest and most intelligent candidates rarely come out on top. Instead, success often hinges on a complex mix of charisma, timing, and sheer luck. Sunak, having failed to secure victory over Liz Truss in the party leadership contest, should have been acutely aware of this fact.

As the Conservatives face the prospect of a potentially devastating defeat, the party is scrambling to secure a minimum of seats while also preparing for a future beyond this election. This future is shrouded in uncertainty, potentially necessitating a complete rebranding and reshuffling of the party's leadership.

In the end, the adage holds that you either win or lose in politics. There is no middle ground, no consolation prize. By calling this ill-fated election, Rishi Sunak may have sealed his fate and that of his party. Only time will tell if the Conservative Party can dry out from this soaking and rebuild or if this soaking mistake will haunt them for a decade.

-- Marc

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal

Marc A. Ross is a geostrategist and world-class communications executive with a proven ability to shape public affairs and increase cause awareness for global business issues using global street smarts coupled with holistic, high-frequency, and high-low communications.

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