Marc Ross Daily | April 1

Marc Ross Daily | April 1

Marc Ross Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for senior executives + comms pros.

Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. I am here to help.

Always Be Communicating. 

Happy Tuesday.

Here’s today’s Marc Ross Daily: 

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

Wednesday: Trump will unveil new tariffs.

Trump's tariffs set to make history and break a system MAGA loathes: His plans have sparked fears of a US recession and a global slowdown, as well as the end of a post-war order. Bloomberg

Trump team weighs broader, higher tariffs: WSJ reports back on the table ahead of Wednesday’s deadline: an across-the-board hike of up to 20%.

Trump aide says tariffs will raise $6 trillion as White House readies plan: WP repots as investors brace for sweeping new tariffs on Wednesday, administration officials say they are studying a historic increase in import duties.

+ Policy uncertainty and new sweeping tariffs from the Trump administration are combining to create a stagflationary outlook for the US economy in the latest CNBC Rapid Update.

+ Goldman Sachs on Sunday upgraded their US recession risk to 35 percent.

Trump officials, allies grow anxious about April 2 tariffs: Politico reports the president continues to throw curveballs at businesses — and even his own team.

+ “No one knows what the f**k is going on,” said one White House ally close to Trump’s inner circle. “What are they going to tariff? Who are they gonna tariff and at what rates? Like, the very basic questions haven’t been answered yet.”

Trump has promised tariff ‘liberation day’. Americans aren’t so sure: FT reports even the president’s supporters are sceptical of new levies to be imposed on trading partners on April 2.

Americans are spending less as they brace for new tariffs: WP reports even the wealthiest households are cutting back on extras like plastic surgery, restaurant meals and travel.

Bloomberg: US business put spending plans on ice with tariffs, tax-cut wait

Reuters: China, Japan, South Korea will jointly respond to US tariffs, Chinese state media says

AP: Buzzkill: Trump’s trade wars threaten America’s craft brewers already reeling from changing tastes

CNN: Looming car tariffs have some Americans rushing to dealerships to avoid sticker shock

Mercedes-Benz tried hard to be American. It still got hit by tariffs. WSJ reports the German carmaker’s imports and made-in-USA SUVs are set to be hit by President Trump’s latest levies.

+ US automakers are lobbying the Trump administration to exclude certain vehicle parts from tariffs as part of a last-ditch effort to influence the levies before they start taking effect this week, according to people familiar with the matter.

Donald Trump’s plan for American carmaking is full of potholes: Taxing imported motors may not create many new jobs at home. Economist

Donald Trump puts LVMH to the test with his tariffs: Le Monde reports CEO Bernard Arnault, whose group generates a quarter of its sales in the US and who has nurtured a relationship with Donald Trump since his first term in office, is counting on lobbying in Washington to avoid the tariffs.

EU expects Trump to set flat, double-digit tariff on April 2: Politico reports the European Union’s trade chief met with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer Tuesday in Washington.

Starmer ready to use ‘sharp teeth’ if Trump hits UK with tariffs: Telegraph reports No 10 understood to have plans in place to punish US president if he includes Britain in raid on global imports.

Starmer warns Trump 'don't start a trade war' as UK braced for US tariffs: Indepdent reports ministers have warned 'no option is off the table' for the UK to respond to tariffs which could be imposed by the US from Wednesday.

Why Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff transformation is so risky Stephen Collinson

A $6 trillion Trump tax increase? Navarro says tariffs will raise $600 billion a year for the government, but he says this is a tax cut. WSJ - Editorial

Trump is plotting the biggest tax rise in global history: The burden for paying the bulk of the president’s Liberation Day tariffs will fall on consumers, potentially at some $600 billion a year. Matthew Lynn

+ “It’s gonna be a slow pain first before we get the gain.” -- Senator Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), discussing tariffs on Fox Business.

The realpolitik of Trump’s tariffs: The president’s trade policy is about power and security, not economics. Rana Foroohar

Marine Le Pen found guilty of embezzlement, banned from next elections: WSJ reports judges convict the far-right leader of misusing EU funds and bar her from running in the 2027 presidential elections.

Marine Le Pen banned from standing for office for five years: FT reports the far-right leader also sentenced to jail in ruling that jeopardises her ambitions to run for French presidency in 2027.

Marine Le Pen's 2027 presidential bid in jeopardy after court bans far-right leader from running in elections: Le Monde reports convicted of embezzlement of public funds, the French far-right leader was on Monday sentenced to a five-year ban on running for office, effective immediately, even pending an appeal.

Barring Marine Le Pen is a political thunderbolt for France: Her sentence for improper use of EU funds could strengthen the hard right. Economist

Marine Le Pen dalls to the rule of law and a great battle looms: A court’s conviction of the far-right leader for embezzlement and its ban on her running for office have set off a new crisis for France. NYT

Le Pen calls electoral ban 'political decision,' vows to fight to run in 2027 presidential election: French far-right leader Marine Le Pen was on Monday found guilty of embezzlement and banned from running in elections for five years, effective immediately. She said the court decision was designed to prevent her from 'being elected in the presidential election' but that she would look for ways to have it overturned. Le Monde

A bombshell judgment on Marine Le Pen: Banning the far-right leader from standing for office will inflame French politics. FT - Editorial

Egg shortage: First the US, now France: As a shortage of eggs threatens to hit French supermarket shelves, the industrial price of eggs is breaking records. Laurence Girard

Paris-Milan train resumes service 19 months after its interruption: AFP reports after a 19-month interruption due to a landslide in the Maurienne Valley in the French Alps, the rail link between Paris and Milan resumed Monday morning, with almost full trains departing from the French capital.

Mark Burnett: From Trump’s ‘Apprentice’ boss to ‘high-powered’ British fixer: One of the US president’s most trusted lieutenants is doing his bidding in London — and British officials see someone they can do business with. Politico

Starmer must prepare for an American divorce: While straining to maintain ties, PM should brace for new uncertainties — and get ready to welcome a US brain drain. William Hague

Germany decides to leave history in the past and prepare for war: BBC reports Germany's military, the Bundeswehr, recently got the all-clear for a massive increase in investment after parliament voted to exempt defence spending from strict rules on debt.

A lavish TV drama about Islamic history faces bans and backlash: Moawiya, a 21-episode series produced by Saudi Arabia's MBC, is under fire for representing the Sunni version of a period in early Islamic history. Bloomberg

Israel aims to be the world’s arms dealer: As Europe boosts defense spending, Israeli producers see an opportunity for arms sales—and a chance to become more self-sufficient. Bloomberg

Axios: Trump to make first foreign trip to Saudi Arabia

Bloomberg: Trump plans visits to Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar in first foreign trip

The secret life of the first millennial saint: The Vatican wants him to be the next Mother Teresa. But what did Carlo Acutis really believe? 1843 Magazine

Why China is wary of a Trump-Xi summit: It could take months for agreement on a meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, as Chinese officials seek a scripted encounter. NYT

Bloomberg: US review of China trade deal to add to Xi-Trump tensions

Strategic independence and fragile alliances: Charles de Gaulle's two prophecies: The US turnaround in favor of Russia in the war in Ukraine echoes the French leader's words from back in 1959. At the height of the Cold War, he worried about the consequences of a rapprochement between the two greatest nuclear powers. Jérôme Gautheret

How Trump supercharged distrust, driving US allies away: Trust is very hard to build and easy to destroy. America and its partners are caught in a spiral of distrust. NYT

'A hostile state': Why some travellers are avoiding the US: BBC reports as the list of nations issuing travel warnings to the US grows, some visitors are opting to boycott it entirely. Here's why many foreigners are changing their travel plans and what this could mean for Americans.

Donald Trump rekindles ties between Canada and Europe: The immediate effect of the US president's border ambitions has been a rapprochement between the Land of Maple Leaf and the Old Continent. Eliott Dumoulin

Trump doesn’t rule out military intervention in Greenland — again: Politico reports the US president’s comments come on the heels of diplomatic tensions between Copenhagen and Washington.

Rubio tells Maduro: Hands off Guyana: The Secretary of State warns Venezuela not to harass its neighbor. WSJ - Editorial

Trump sends more migrants to El Salvador prison: WSJ reports Bukele’s notorious maximum-security facility has become a cornerstone of the US president’s deportation strategy.

The Hill: Joe Rogan: ‘Horrific’ that innocent people could be swept up in El Salvador deportations

Japan megaquake: Revised estimates from Japan’s government warned that a long feared megaquake in the country could kill up to 298,000 people and force 12.3m more—around 10% of the country’s population—to evacuate. The last time Japan was struck by a 9.0-magnitude earthquake was in 2011; nearly 20,000 people died.



***  US Politics + Elections ***

Most Americans are paying attention: A new Pew Research survey finds about seven-in-ten adults say they have been following news about the actions and initiatives of President Trump’s administration very (31%) or fairly (40%) closely.

+ “They’re playing to Trump’s strengths, which is as a mob boss.” -- Former Trump White House lawyer Ty Cobb, quoted by Politico, on the capitulation of law firms, Ivy League universities, and media outlets.

Mike Waltz is losing support inside the White House: WSJ reports that although Trump decided not to fire his national security adviser over the Signal group chat, Waltz’s position is tenuous, officials say.

The growing legend of the missing Oval Office ivy: First off, the legend might be wrong. Also, we found out where the ivy went. WP

+ In the commotion of Donald Trump’s return to office, it’s easy to overlook a smaller thing that has vanished: the Swedish ivy plant in the Oval Office. The ivy sat atop the fireplace mantel for most of the past 50 years, providing a backdrop for meetings with countless leaders and foreign dignitaries at the White House. It has filtered the air breathed by Nelson Mandela, Pope John Paul II, Margaret Thatcher, and Whitney Houston.

The Trump family is set to launch a Bitcoin mining-focused venture with Hut 8 Corp., the latest expansion of the president’s ties to the cryptocurrency sector.

Today: The 6th District in Florida holds an election between Republican Randy Fine and Democrat Josh Weil to replace National Security Adviser Michael Waltz in the House. This is a seat Republicans should win by two dozen points. But Fine has been embarrassingly outraised. A St. Pete Poll showed Weil down by just four points.

A special election that was supposed to be a snoozer is suddenly buzzing: NYT reports a House race in a deep-red Florida district is seeing millions of dollars in spending ahead of Tuesday’s election. Even in a loss, Democrats hope it will signal much-needed momentum.

White House weighs helping farmers as Trump escalates trade war: NYT reports the Trump administration has discussed providing financial aid for farmers who may be subject to retaliation by America’s trading partners.

Tim Walz: Why we lost: The would-be Democratic vice-president on 2024’s mistakes and 2025’s opportunity. Daniel Strauss

In the 'Abundance' debate, both sides get it wrong: Democrats should learn that they can be more boldly reformist and more assertively redistributionist at the same time. Matthew Yglesias

A Peter Thiel protégé is leading Trump’s AI strategy against China: Michael Kratsios will work to counter Beijing without disrupting US businesses. WSJ

My day inside America’s most hated car: The Cybertruck is a 7,000-pound Rorschach test. Saahil Desai

Brands spend nominal sums on X ads to keep Elon Musk happy: FT reports marketers want to avoid being seen as boycotting billionaire’s social media platform.

FYI: The TikTok ban deadline looming Friday night.

Steven Cheung is the voice of Trump: The White House communications chief has a strategy: relentless aggression. The Atlantic

Axios: White House to take charge of briefing-room seating chart

Bloomberg: Newsmax founder Christopher Ruddy, ex-NY Post journalist, is now billionaire

*** Distribution + Innovation ***

YouTube is about to eclipse Disney as the biggest media company in the world Business Insider

How Shonda Rhimes became a billion-dollar asset for streamers: Her career offers lessons for any writer who wants to make it big on the small screen. Economist

Elon Musk said his xAI artificial intelligence startup has acquired the X platform, which he also controls, at a valuation of $33 billion, marking a surprise twist for the social network formerly known as Twitter.

Why Elon Musk is merging his AI company xAI with his social media platform X: Le Monde reports with this move – which is, in fact, a sale of X to xAI – Musk is banking on the synergies between his AI technologies and his platform's reach. He is also giving X back value equal to the $44 billion he paid to buy it, in 2022.

OpenAI secures $300bn valuation after $40bn SoftBank-led funding round: FT reports the newest financing comes as ChatGPT maker seeks to become conventional for-profit company.

Isomorphic Labs, the Alphabet-owned company that uses artificial intelligence to discover drugs, has raised $600 million, the first time it’s taken in external funding.

CNBC: Amazon’s Nova AI agent launch puts it up against rivals OpenAI, Anthropic

Amazon’s AGI lab reveals its first work: Advanced AI agents: Wired reports led by a former OpenAI executive, Amazon’s AI lab focuses on the decisionmaking capabilities of next-generation software agents—and borrows insights from physical robots.

Amazon’s AI assistant Alexa+ launches with some missing features: WP reports Alexa+, Amazon’s AI-enhanced voice assistant, will launch to some customers Monday, though not every feature will be available right away.

Oculus Co-founder’s AI voice startup is in talks for Sequoia backing: Bloomberg reports Sesame AI is discussing a funding round of more than $200 million, co-led by Sequoia Capital and Spark Capital. 

Axios: Teachers warn AI is impacting students' critical thinking

China’s Zhipu is making its new AI agent free to use as domestic competition to build emerging artificial intelligence technologies heats up.

Bloomberg: China floods the world with AI models after DeepSeek success

Bloomberg: China’s Manus turns its AI agent into a $39 cubscription

AI was enemy No. 1 during Hollywood strikes. Now it's in Oscar-winning films: Inside a soundstage once used by silent film stars Charlie Chaplin and Mabel Normand, Hollywood executives, actors and filmmakers sipped cocktails as they marvelled at what some say is the biggest breakthrough since the talkies: AI-generated video. BBC

Look again: That H&M model showing off a new look may be a digital clone: The Swedish retailer H&M said it was exploring the use of artificial intelligence in producing “digital twins” of models. NYT

The new billionaires of the AI boom: The rush into artificial intelligence has minted fortunes worth a collective $71 billion for 29 founders. Bloomberg

Data centers love solar: Here’s a comprehensive guide to deals over 100 megawatts TC

Intel’s new chief promises ‘cultural change’ at chipmaker: FT reports Lip-Bu Tan says the Silicon Valley group must again act like a ‘day-one start-up.’

Apple and Musk clash over satellite expansion plans: WSJ reports the iPhone maker and SpaceX are competing in the race to eliminate cellphone dead spots, a rift that is set to intensify.

*** Culture ***

Demographers at war: Fake centenarians, faulty data, junk science, and contested “blue zones.” NY Mag

The Ford executive who kept score of colleagues’ verbal flubs: Mike O’Brien kept a meticulous log of mixed metaphors and malaprops uttered in meetings over a decade; ‘too many cooks in the soup.’ WSJ

Camera set up to catch Loch Ness Monster discovered: BBC reports an underwater camera set up 55 years ago to try and photograph the Loch Ness Monster has been found by accident by a robot submarine. 

*** Sport ***

MLB needs superteams more than ever: It may upset the fans of losing clubs, but franchises that are able and willing to spend big on star players give the league as a whole the biggest ROI. Adam Minter


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly. 

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal