Marc Ross Daily | April 10
Marc Ross Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for senior executives + comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. I am here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Thursday.
Here’s today’s Marc Ross Daily:
*** Ross Rant ***
Trump's trade war: Creating chaos + Claiming victory
In a bewildering display of global economic management, Team Trump has once again employed its signature strategy: create a crisis, partially resolve it, and then declare an unprecedented victory.
The recent trade chaos, which Team Trump will undoubtedly declare "The Art of the Deal," reveals an unprecedented pattern of governance emanating from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue through manufactured chaos.
After threatening massive tariffs that sent global markets into a nosedive, Team Trump has now pulled back on some measures while maintaining others—then declared this retreat a masterful negotiation.
The reality is far more concerning.
The economic costs of this approach have been substantial. The administration triggered a cascade of market disruptions by abruptly announcing sweeping tariffs against virtually all major trading partners simultaneously. American companies found themselves scrambling to adjust supply chains built over decades. Construction projects faced sudden cost increases. Restaurants like Cava began calculating how tariffs on everything from Canadian paper bowls to Greek olive oil would affect their bottom line.
"It's like going to a restaurant where the menu keeps changing before you order," Brett Schulman, Cava's CEO, was quoted in the Wall Street Journal. "No one feels confident making a decision."
This uncertainty is what businesses fear most—it paralyzes investment, delays expansion, and ultimately costs jobs.
Even with the partial pullback, the United States has positioned itself as an outlier in global trade policy. As economist Jason Furman points out, "We are now at a 24 percent average tariff rate, making the US the highest tariff country in the world—leapfrogging pikers such as Iran and Venezuela with average rates of 12 and 14 percent, respectively."
Heavy-handed tariffs like this are unprecedented territory for an advanced economy. No other nation with our level of prosperity maintains such protectionist barriers.
Team Trump's approach defies conventional economic wisdom across the political spectrum. No coherent school of thought—whether from conservative free-market proponents or progressive economists—supports simultaneously antagonizing every major trading partner.
As Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times aptly described, the White House has "taken an axe to the supply chains of many of the world's leading multinationals."
What's particularly troubling about this approach is that it likely won't achieve its stated goals. Trade deficits—Trump's obsession—typically reflect macroeconomic factors like savings and investment rates rather than trade barriers. The most probable outcome is not a manufacturing renaissance but higher prices for American consumers and businesses.
Consider your Mediterranean lunch bowl at Cava. When import taxes hit olive oil, feta, and tahini, restaurants must pass those costs to customers. Team Trump touts these tariffs as "protecting American jobs," but the reality is more expensive meals, furniture, and appliances.
Our allies, meanwhile, watch with growing concern. Nations that have been steadfast partners now face unexpected economic aggression from their most important ally. Many have already announced retaliatory measures, creating a spiraling cycle of protectionism that historical evidence suggests will leave everyone worse off.
The trade conflicts also distract from opportunities for genuine economic cooperation on issues like intellectual property protection, market access, and technology transfers—areas where targeted, multilateral approaches might yield real benefits.
What makes this approach particularly dangerous is its unpredictability. Markets function best with clear rules and expectations. When policy becomes erratic—shifting dramatically based on presidential whims rather than careful analysis—the economic consequences extend beyond immediate price changes to long-term investment decisions and strategic planning.
By declaring victory after creating a crisis of its own making, Team Trump demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of leadership. True negotiating strength comes not from threatening allies or disrupting established systems but building coalitions around shared interests and values.
As consumers soon discover the real costs of these policies at restaurants, car dealerships, and retail stores, the supposed victory will reveal itself as merely a retreat from a self-inflicted wound—one that leaves lasting economic scars while solving none of the underlying challenges it purported to address.
Enjoy the ride + Plan accordingly.
-Marc
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
Bloomberg: Trump says tariffs paused for 90 days on non-retaliating countries
Bloomberg: ‘Is it real?!’ NYSE trading floor erupts as Trump pauses tariffs
FT: US stocks surge as Trump pauses ‘reciprocal’ tariffs for 90 days
WSJ: Nasdaq soars to best day since 2001 after Trump pauses some tariffs
Trump’s top trade official wasn’t informed of tariff delay until after announcement: CNN reports at the same moment that US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer was defending Trump’s stiff tariffs during a House hearing, Trump said on his social media platform that the administration will delay the additional tariff hike on dozens of countries by 90 days — which went into effect for mere hours on Wednesday — with the exception of China.
Trump blinks on tariffs, again, for now: The President pauses on some tariffs amid a bond rout and recession fears. WSJ - Editorial
The art of the 90-day tariff pause: This chaos has been bad for everyone. Can the master negotiator now turn it around? Karl Rove
Why Trump paused the tariffs: A stock-market swoon, or even a recession, might not frighten him, but the prospect of a 2008-style meltdown apparently still does. Jonathan Chait
Trump backs down on tariffs, again. And it doesn’t look strategic. Advisers said this was the strategy all along. Their claim is undercut by plenty of details — and Trump himself. Aaron Blake
Trump’s tariff pause brings investors relief—but worries remain: Amid market panic, he backs off his most extreme “reciprocal” tariffs. Economist
The art of the delay: Donald Trump pauses some of the pain, but not the chaos. Economist
+ Most countries’ imports face a maximum 10% levy but Trump hits China harder
+ Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the decision to issue a 90-day pause on Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs was driven by President Trump’s “strategy.”
+ Trump says he is raising the tariff charged to China by the US to 125%, effective immediately.
+ Trump stunned markets, announcing he would authorize a 90-day pause on his reciprocal tariff plans for all countries except China and telling reporters he did so because people were getting "yippy" and "afraid."
+ @Itwitius: In other news... Trump's strategy, which was forseeable, has come into focus. He has paused tarrifs on everyone, except China. It was always about China. Slapping the Europeans about on defence is about China. It's about China.
+ @mmcassella: White House says the 10% baseline tariff also applies to Canada & Mexico. It has not said whether that's the effective new rate itself; whether it adds to the 25% fentanyl tariff, making the new rate 35%; or whether it kicks in only if the fentanyl tariff falls away
Nouriel Roubini expects trade war with China to escalate: Nouriel Roubini, chief executive officer of Roubini Macro Associates, expects President Donald Trump's trade war to escalate with China and the market will keep going lower and lower. He says Trump, China's Xi Jinping and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell are all playing a dangerous game of chicken. Bloomberg Surveillance
WSJ: China to raise tariff on US to 84% after Trump’s levies kick in
China retaliated against new tariffs imposed by Trump by announcing it would raise duties on US goods, roiling markets and deepening a trade war between the world’s largest economies. The Chinese government will impose an 84% tariff on all imports from the US starting April 10.
China has readied a trade-war arsenal That takes aim at US companies: Beijing’s strategy to hit back at Trump goes well beyond tariffs, targeting companies who bank on their China ties. WSJ
How China’s record trade surplus helped spark Trump’s tariff war: Beijing’s domination of global trade has led to a schism between the world’s two largest economies — and left many others worried about their industries being crushed by China’s export machine. FT
Tariffs: Why is it so difficult to catch up with "Made in China" products? The Chinese industry initially thrived due to its low-cost labor, but it also dominates many sectors through its responsiveness, innovation capacity and public support it gets. Le Monde
Trump’s ‘reshoring’ ambitions threatened by tariff chaos: Companies have pledged to build factories in the US but are wary of committing long-term investment while trade policy is unclear. FT
An American-made iPhone: Just expensive or completely impossible? Trump’s tariffs aim to bring manufacturing back to the US. So what—besides magic—would it take to make iPhones here? WSJ
Tariffs didn’t drive America’s nineteenth-century growth. They won’t today, either: Innovation, capital, and labor powered US industrial advances, not trade barriers. Brian Albrecht
Trump is ruining his supporters’ dreams: The president won by appealing to strivers, hoping to get rich. His tariffs now threaten that support. Reihan Salam + Charles Fain Lehman
Inside the West Coast Pports at the epicenter of Trump’s trade tariffs: As President Trump’s tariffs against China go into effect, WSJ’s Paul Berger explains what’s next for the largest port complex in the US—the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach—and the economic aftershocks in store for the rest of the country. WSJ
The hopeless search for Trump’s cunning plan: Attempts to read grand strategy into the US president’s doings have run their course. Janan Ganesh
It falls to Congress to unravel Trump’s reckless tariffs: If Republicans are serious, they should join with Democrats to pass a resolution to fix this crisis. Elizabeth Warren
+ A new Quinnipiac poll finds a vast majority of voters (72 percent) think the tariffs will hurt the US economy in the short-term, while a smaller majority (53 percent) think the tariffs will hurt the US economy in the long-term as well.
+ Chaos sown by the president’s trade war means corporate America is planning for a recession.
'Somebody has to pay the cost': Business owners break down tariff drama on social media: A flurry of small business owners has taken to social media platforms to address fans directly about the prohibitive number-crunching Trump’s tariffs have forced them to initiate. FC
FT: Prada cuts Versace purchase price by $200mn after Trump tariffs
Prada deal for Versace at risk of collapsing with market in turmoil: WSJ reports Prada’s tentative deal to acquire Versace from Capri for roughly $1.4 billion could be announced as soon as Thursday if Prada’s namesake family sign off.
Bloomberg: Amazon cancels some inventory orders from China after tariffs
Bloomberg: Nike, Walmart jump on 90-Day tariff pause for key suppliers
How Trump’s tariffs could make AI development more expensive: Time reports that the companies at the forefront of the AI industry are currently spending hundreds of billions of dollars on building new data centers to train AI models. Tariffs will increase the already gargantuan costs of those efforts, analysts say.
Bloomberg: Apple’s iPhone cost could rise 90% if it’s made in US, BofA says
Apple turns to India to help ease Trump’s China tariffs: iPhone maker is facing one of the biggest threats to its business in years. FT
Tariffs put Taiwan on shaky ground with US, may open door for China: WP reports tariff on most goods from Taiwan is the latest in a string of confusing signals from the Trump administration that has Taipei wondering where it stands.
Is this America’s Liz Truss moment? Ms. Truss, Britain’s prime minister for 44 days, was forced out after her radical policies caused a market meltdown. But there are some key differences with President Trump. NYT
LAT: Trump threats do the unthinkable: transform Canadians into flag-waving, US-booing patriots
Trump is losing in a landslide in Canada: The president’s trade war and threats of annexation have united Canadians as never before. Rolling Stone
LAT: Canadian snowbirds love Palm Springs. But Trump is making them say: Sorry! We’re leaving
The battlefield lessons North Korea has learned fighting Ukraine: Combat experience has taught the Russian ally modern warfare tactics that, combined with ideological fervor, make it a significant adversary for the Ukrainians. WSJ
Ukraine counts more than 150 Chinese citizens fighting for Russia: WSJ reports Beijing has denied military involvement in Ukraine after Kyiv said it captured two Chinese citizens.
Europe should buy from Ukraine’s defence industry: And invest in it too. Economist
Iran’s foreign minister said his country is ready to “seal a deal” with America over its nuclear programme but would “never accept coercion.”
Bloomberg: Trump says he’d use military to prevent Iran from nuclear weapon
Macron says France could recognize Palestinian state in June: Le Monde reports the French president stated that at a UN conference in June, co-hosted by France and Saudi Arabia, several countries could finalize a joint move toward mutual recognition of a Palestinian state.
Netherlands expands state-run experiment for legal cannabis sales: FC reports while growing cannabis is still illegal, cannabis shops—known as coffeeshops—in 10 municipalities will be allowed to sell marijuana from 10 licensed producers.
Germany’s centre-right Christian Democratic bloc agreed a coalition deal with the centre-left Social Democrats. Friedrich Merz will become chancellor, having led his Christian Democratic Union to an election victory in February.
Britain’s parties cater to a voter who is, often literally, dead: To understand British politics, one must understand Dead Man. Economist
UK creating ‘murder prediction’ tool to identify people most likely to kill: Algorithms allegedly being used to study data of thousands of people, in project critics say is ‘chilling and dystopian.’ Guardian
CNBC: Europe unveils plan to become ‘AI continent’ with simpler rules, more infrastructure
+ The European Commission on Wednesday outlined its so-called “AI Continent Action Plan,” which aims to “transform Europe’s strong traditional industries and its exceptional talent pool into powerful engines of AI innovation and acceleration.”
+ The bloc said it would create a new AI Act Service Desk to help regional firms comply with its landmark law on artificial intelligence.
+ The EU has faced criticisms from tech leaders that its rules on everything from AI to taxation hinder innovation and make it harder for startups to operate across the region.
Shaping Europe’s leadership in artificial intelligence with the AI continent action plan: The European Union can become a global leader in artificial intelligence (AI) and promote the development and deployment of AI solutions that benefit society and the economy. The Commission has presented the AI continent action plan to turn EU strengths, such as unparalleled talent and strong traditional industries, into AI accelerators. Webpage
Panama hopes Hegseth visit turns page and ends Trump pressure: WSJ reports US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth secured commitments but left some Panamanian officials wondering if they would mollify President Trump, who has repeatedly vowed to “take back” the Panama Canal.
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Pete Hoekstra, the former West Michigan congressman who served as President Donald Trump's ambassador to the Netherlands and as state Republican Party chairman last year, has been formally installed in a new role: US ambassador to Canada.
CNN: Tulsi Gabbard declared her residency in Texas. Then she voted in Hawaii
Trump team to freeze nearly $2 billion at Cornell and Northwestern Universities: WSJ reports the federal government is investigating both schools for alleged civil-rights violations, as part of a rapidly expanding crackdown on elite research universities.
Bloomberg: US government employs AI to analyze worker personnel files
Axios: Trump pushes coal to feed AI power demand
Trump takes aim at low-pressure showers with executive order: WSJ reports the president has signed an executive order rolling back a federal regulation he has blamed for poor water pressure.
NASA chief nominee says he wants to pursue both Mars and Moon missions: WSJ reports Jared Isaacman said he backed NASA plans to keep the International Space Station operating through around 2030, a position different from Elon Musk’s.
Measles outbreak in Texas now tops 500 cases: FC reports the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is working with Texas officials to determine how to assist with the outbreak response.
New wave of Democratic primary challengers bring age problem into focus: Politico reports a spate of challenges against longtime Democratic incumbents suggests some in the party are fed up with its current leadership.
Democratic US senators question Google and Microsoft's AI deals: Reuters reports US Senators Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Ron Wyden of Oregon, the ranking Democrats on the Senate banking and finance committees, respectively, asked Google for details about its partnership with AI startup Anthropic and Microsoft about its tie-up with ChatGPT creator OpenAI, according to the letters.
Big Bank CEOs reckon with their lack of influence on Trump: Tariffs extinguish animal spirits as deals grind to a halt and recession forecasts climb. WSJ
Pronouns in bio? You may not get a response from the White House. NYT reports some Trump administration officials have declined to answer questions from several journalists on the basis of their email signatures.
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
How the Caribbean could turn a plague of seaweed into fuel and fertilizer: Sargassum seaweed is a problem throughout the Caribbean, but scientists have a plan to transform it into a renewable energy source. WP
Lego just opened a $1 billion factory in Vietnam that will run entirely on clean energy: FC reports the Lego factory in the industrial area of Binh Duong, close to Ho Chi Minh City, is the first in Vietnam that aims to run entirely on clean energy.
Kim Sung-joo, the business maverick who built a fashion empire on a backpack: Meet the South Korean entrepreneur who turned MCM Worldwide into a global phenomenon. FT
Europe's first Universal theme park coming to UK: BBC reports the first Universal theme park in Europe will be built in the UK, the government has promised. The attraction is planned for the site of a former brickworks near Bedford and could create an estimated 28,000 jobs before opening in 2031. Universal estimated the 476-acre complex could attract 8.5 million visitors in its first year.
For the first time, artificial intelligence is being used at a nuclear power plant: California’s Diablo Canyon: Some lawmakers think additional guardrails are needed for future uses. For now, the facility will use AI to comply with regulations. The Markup
Bloomberg: OpenAI rival Anthropic to offer $200 monthly Claude chatbot subscription
Some people think AI writing has a tell — the em dash. Writers disagree. Em dashes have been derided as the “ChatGPT hyphen” — a punctuation mark overused by artificial intelligence. That’s not quite true. WP
Americans worry AI is coming for these jobs: A Pew Research survey shows that Americans and experts agree on some jobs they think will be most affected by artificial intelligence. WP
Deepfake porn is a labor issue: AI-generated porn could put hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of Americans out of work. FC
*** Culture ***
How do you rebuild a place like the Palisades? It was an idyllic pocket of Los Angeles where people knew their neighbors — and homes sold for $5 million. The fire ignited competing visions for its future. NYT
Are e-bikes a godsend or the road to perdition? An Amish community is torn. As the battery-powered bikes spread in the 40,000-person Ohio settlement, so does the fear they will undermine family values. WSJ
*** Sport ***
Formula One’s TV rights are up for grabs, but media companies aren’t racing to bid: WSJ reports Liberty Media’s F1 is seeking $150 million to $180 million a year for the fast-growing sport.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Marc Ross Daily | April 10
