Marc Ross Daily | April 16
Marc Ross Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for senior executives + comms pros.
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Happy Wednesday.
Here’s today’s Marc Ross Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
10 days and a $10 trillion market swing: How Trump’s tariffs changed the global economy, and what comes next: In US financial history, there are weeks that live in infamy—like the “Black Tuesday” stock market crash of 1929, or the 2008 Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, or the COVID-induced shock of 2020. To this list we can add the “Liberation Day” market meltdown triggered by President Donald Trump’s successive announcements of sweeping tariffs over the past two weeks. Fortune
Investors are abandoning the dollar and Treasurys, scared by the trade war: WP reports the dollar has lost almost 10 percent of its value since Inauguration Day, with roughly half of that decline coming this month.
+ A tariff-induced meltdown of US equity and bond markets has been spooking financial circles. But stocks and Treasuries aren’t the only assets on the fritz—the US dollar is also falling, with analysts warning of a global “de-dollarization” in response to the Trump administration’s frenetic foreign policy decisions.
+ The current tariff reprieve in the tech sector is likely temporary, said Eric Compton, Morningstar's director of equity research for the sector.
Fortune: Janet Yellen says America would be ‘lucky to skirt a recession’
Trump hasn’t killed globalization. He’s killing the US economy: The president’s liberation day tariff fiasco is proving in real time why protectionism is so economically damaging. Daniel J Mitchell
Fortune: Americans want more US factory jobs—as long as they don’t have to work them
+ Survey data from the Financial Times and based on a 2024 survey from the Cato Institute, shows that while 80% of Americans believe the country would be better off with more manufacturing jobs, just 25% believe they would individually be better off working in a factory.
+ As Elon Musk claims thousands of laid-off government workers will staff new factories, others say robots will do the jobs.
Trump is killing one of our strongest exports: The president wants to balance US trade deficits? He can’t do it without this industry he hates. Catherine Rampell
+ "Colleges and universities are among America’s most competitive international exporters. In dollar terms, last year, the United States sold more educational services to the rest of the world than it sold in natural gas and coal combined."
Canadian universities report jump in US applicants amid Trump crackdown: Guardian reports the University of British Columbia and others report spike in interest from US citizens as Trump withholds funds and revokes foreign student visas.
+ Officials at the University of British Columbia’s (UBC) Vancouver campus said the school reported a 27% jump in graduate applications as of 1 March from US citizens for programs starting in the 2025 academic year, compared with all of 2024.
+ The University of Toronto, Canada’s largest university by number of students, also reported more US applications by its January deadline for 2025 programs, while a University of Waterloo spokesperson reported an increase in US visitors to campus and more web traffic originating from the United States since September.
Tariffs on chips, phones, laptops still coming, commerce secretary warns: WP reports on Truth Social, President Trump said that such electronic goods are in a different tariff “bucket” than what was announced Friday.
Trump’s tariff threat for imported medicines poses political risks: NYT reports levies on Americans’ daily prescriptions and other medicines could raise costs, spur rationing, and lead to shortages of critical drugs.
Trump presses China to make tariff offer to calm trade war: Bloomberg reports the comments indicate there is no end in sight to fight that has seen both sides raise trade barriers to staggering levels.
Trump’s trade war deepens threat to US brands in China: WP reports the tariff spat risks pushing Chinese consumers even further into the arms of domestic goods.
Pity American firms in China. Xi Jinping is hitting back: From Apple and Boeing to Nike and Starbucks, there is a lot of money at stake. Economist
Trump’s China trade war is forcing Latin America to pick a side: Intensifying battle between world’s two largest economies has left governments grappling with the reality that their days of doing big business with Beijing without serious blowback from Washington are numbered. BAT
CNBC: Trump is ‘shredding’ credibility with allies while China benefits, former national security advisor John Bolton says
Trump trade war could challenge US credibility, says Jamie Dimon: JPMorgan chief tells the FT that Washington and Beijing ‘should engage’ as tariffs escalate. FT
China’s online retailers give Trump’s tariffs a one-star review: WP reports Trump’s tariffs are complicating Chinese vendors’ efforts to become the next big thing on TikTok — or Shein or Temu. But they’re pledging to find a way through.
China could be about to teach Trump a hard economic lesson: US bonds display all the tell-tale signs of an impending financial crisis. Jeremy Warner
AP: China’s Xi Jinping says there are no winners in a tariff war as he visits Southeast Asia
Straits Times: China’s Xi arrives in Malaysia, pledges deeper ties amid escalating US trade war
Donald Trump has given BYD the edge over Tesla: Chinese carmaker’s absence from the US, once seen as a weakness, has turned into an asset. June Yoon
Reuters: South Korea unveils $23 billion support package for chips amid US tariff uncertainty
Reuters: Taiwan to simulate impact of US tariffs on semiconductor sector
Japan's negotiator Akazawa leaving for Washington for tariff talks: NHK reports Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister Akazawa Ryosei is leaving for the US for the first round of negotiations on tariff measures introduced by President Donald Trump's administration.
Race to stop Trump tariffs hitting British medicine industry: The Times reports Lord Mandelson, the UK ambassador, is ‘very focused’ on winning a reprieve for the sector.
US wants to retain key tariffs on EU, say European officials: FT reports diplomats from the bloc say American negotiators stressed the need for levies as part of efforts to repatriate industry.
Relief in ‘Honda town’ as automaker shoots down report it’s moving some production to US from Alliston: Toronto Star reports residents breathe a collective sigh as company denies Japanese newspaper report it is shifting some production to the US amid the ongoing Trump global trade war.
+ Ottawa on Tuesday offered tariff relief to automakers on condition they maintain production in Canada, fearing US President Donald Trump's policies could trigger a flight of the key manufacturing sector to the United States.
Fortune: How does a Fortune 500 company rebuild its supply chain overnight? Most are piecing together a playbook on the fly
Stellantis NV Chairman John Elkann warned Tuesday that the American and European car markets are "being put at risk" by tariffs.
Mega auto supplier Magna: Tariff impact is like every crisis all at once: Giant auto supplier Magna International views the financial and logistical threat of auto tariffs as an amalgamation of every major crisis the auto industry has faced in the past several years. Detroit Free Press
+ Magna International CEO Swamy Kotagiri believes proposed auto tariffs combine the worst aspects of recent industry crises.
+ The CEO highlighted the difficulty of long-term planning given the unclear details and potential impact of tariffs.
+ Kotagiri argues tariffs, coupled with existing supply chain issues and economic uncertainty, create a uniquely challenging situation.
Goldman Sachs chief optimistic Trump will listen to corporate America: FT reports David Solomon warns of ‘material risks’ on US and global economy posed by effects of trade war.
CNBC: United Airlines gives two 2025 profit outlooks, calling economy ‘impossible’ to predict
United Airlines is so unsure about the economy it offers two profit scenarios: Bloomberg reports the macroeconomic environment 'is impossible to predict this year with any degree of confidence,' United said in an investor update.
CNBC: Amazon emails sellers to gauge how Trump’s tariffs are impacting their businesses
Tim Cook’s ‘long arc of time’ prepared Apple for the trade war: The CEO managed to help the iPhone avoid another US battle with China. WSJ
America’s most valuable company is about to be crippled by Trump: The president’s poorly planned, poorly designed, poorly executed policies are hurting US businesses. Matthew Lynn
Reuters: Apple airlifted iPhones worth a record $2 billion from India in March as Trump tariffs loomed
Trump’s Nvidia deal lays bare the contradictions in America’s AI policy: No company has cashed in on the generative AI boom quite like Nvidia, whose chips and software help power AI used by Microsoft, Google, Meta, OpenAI, and Tesla. So it’s no surprise that as President Trump moves to impose tariffs on semiconductors—after initially carving out an exemption—Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is looking to strike a deal to reduce the impact of potential tariffs on his company. Fortune
Bloomberg: Nvidia says new limits on China exports to cost $5.5 billion
Boeing hit from all sides in Trump’s trade war: WSJ reports China told domestic airlines not to place new orders for Boeing jets, adding new pressure to the struggling American plane maker.
+ China Southern Airlines has suspended the sale of 10 Boeing airplanes
+ US aviation giant Boeing, fresh off a crippling labor dispute and quality control crisis, has now found itself drawn into the escalating trade conflict between Washington and Beijing.
Reuters: China accuses US of launching 'advanced' cyberattacks, names alleged NSA agents
Nikkei: Trump administration pulls funding for Texas bullet train with Japan tech
+ Planned Houston-Dallas line faces uncertain future with estimated cost ballooning
The succession drama inside Singapore’s richest family: The billionaire Kwek clan was held up as a three-generation success story, until a father-son conflict revealed a surprising rift. Bloomberg
Donald Trump again blames Ukraine for starting war with Russia: FT reports the US president reignites war of words with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
+ America blocked a statement by the G7 condemning Russia’s deadliest strike on Ukraine this year, saying it wanted to keep peace talks on track.
Trump’s Ukraine ceasefire is slipping away: The American president increasingly looks like Russia’s willing dupe. Economist
Inside North Korea’s vast operation to help Russia’s war on Ukraine Reuters
Reuters: Kremlin says there is no outline yet for US-Russia deal on Ukraine, but political will is there
Reuters: Ukraine, UK, France and Turkey discuss Black Sea security, Zelenskiy says
NATO's Rutte says US-led Ukraine peace talks 'not easy': AFP reports NATO chief Mark Rutte said on Tuesday that US President Donald Trump's push for a ceasefire and lasting peace in Ukraine was "not easy" and condemned Russia's "terrible pattern" of attacks on Ukrainian civilians.
Sweden says no proof Chinese ship meant to damage cables: DW reports Swedish authorities say they have not found evidence that a Chinese vessel deliberately cut Baltic Sea cables last year. Another probe into the incident is still underway amid growing security fears in the region.
Israel has taken over about a third of the Gaza Strip: WSJ reports Israeli troops are seizing land and threatening to chip away more if Hamas doesn’t release its hostages.
Mali threatens to seize Barrick Gold’s assets, company says: FT reports the mining group also says ruling military junta has shut its office in Bamako.
Canadian academics warned to halt non-essential travel to the US amid Trump’s crackdown, border tensions: Toronto Star reports the Canadian Association of University Teachers says people in certain categories, including those who have criticized Trump, face heightened risks.
Trump’s ‘chosen one’ Giorgia Meloni heads to Washington to play delicate balancing act: Italy’s PM has demonstrated an affinity with the US president, but also needs to maintain allegiance to her EU partners. Angela Giuffrida
Reuters: US policy on stablecoins more dangerous than tariffs, Italian minister says
Ollanta Humala, Peru’s president between 2011 and 2016, was sentenced to 15 years in prison for money laundering.
Bloomberg: Brazil to lean toward granting asylum to Peru’s convicted former first lady
The White House is urging Colombia to halt the implementation of new auto safety regulations that could jeopardize American car exports to Colombia, as both nations prepare to discuss tariffs recently imposed on Colombian products including coffee, avocados, flowers and oil.
Trump resurrects ghost of US military bases in Panama: AFP reports US President Donald Trump's bid to take back control of the Panama Canal has put his counterpart Jose Raul Mulino in a difficult position and revived fears in the Central American country that US military bases will return.
I’m in Denmark’s parliament. Here’s why America has us so stunned. Ida Auken
World travelers are rethinking vacation plans to the US: As anecdotes of detentions and deportations reverberate, early signs point to a worrying spending slump from Europeans and Canadians. Bloomberg
*** US Politics + Elections ***
The economic consequences of a mad king: Trump’s delight in doing whatever he wishes in the moment is incompatible with stability and sustained dynamism. Martin Wolf
Inside Trump’s plan to halt hundreds of regulations: The White House will soon move to rapidly repeal or freeze rules that affect health, food, workplace safety, transportation, and more. NYT
This company’s surveillance tech makes immigrants ‘easy pickings’ for Trump: Geo Group, a private prison firm that makes digital tools to track immigrants, becomes one of the Trump administration’s big business winners as its tech is increasingly used in deportations. WP
Memphis Commercial Appeal: Did Elon Musk leave DOGE? Why White House press secretary says he hasn't left his position
A whistleblower's disclosure details how DOGE may have taken sensitive labor data: NPR reports according to an official whistleblower disclosure shared with Congress and other federal overseers that was obtained by NPR, subsequent interviews with the whistleblower and records of internal communications, technical staff members were alarmed about what DOGE engineers did when they were granted access, particularly when those staffers noticed a spike in data leaving the agency. It's possible that the data included sensitive information on unions, ongoing legal cases and corporate secrets — data that four labor law experts tell NPR should almost never leave the NLRB and that has nothing to do with making the government more efficient or cutting spending.
Elon Musk gets government policy ideas from X. Here’s how. A look at which accounts — big and small — have Musk’s ear, and how some appear to have sparked action from Musk and the Trump administration. WP
Top Hegseth adviser Dan Caldwell put on leave in Pentagon leak probe: Reuters reports one of US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's leading advisers, Dan Caldwell, was escorted from the Pentagon on Tuesday after being identified during an investigation into leaks at the Department of Defense.
WSJ: USDA is fast-tracking requests to yank soda from food-stamps program
NYT: More than 20,000 IRS employees offer to resign
Trump’s AI infrastructure plans could face delays due to Texas Republicans: Republican-controlled state house poised to pass legislation that imposes regulatory hurdles on data centers. Guardian
Trump tech aide calls for ‘creative’ R&D push after budget cuts: White House science and technology director Michael Kratsios said the US will need to make “smart choices” with public research funding to stay competitive in areas like artificial intelligence as the Trump administration’s sweeping budget cuts spread to research organizations. Bloomberg
US Republican senators ask Trump administration to reject Biden's AI chip rule: Reuters reports seven Republican US senators have sent a letter to US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, urging him to scrap a Biden administration rule restricting global access to AI chips before it kicks in next month. The letter, signed by senators Pete Ricketts, Tommy Tuberville and Thom Tillis, argues that the AI diffusion rule will damage US leadership in artificial intelligence and calls for "immediate action" to halt it before it takes effect on May 15. The letter, whose contents were made public on Monday, was sent on Friday.
Fortune: With defense tech booming and Palantir stock up 323% over the past year, CEO Alex Karp has finally been vindicated
Breaking his silence, Biden to speak out on Social Security: WP reports Trump has repeatedly disparaged his predecessor since taking office. Biden has not spoken out publicly — until now.
Biden returns to the spotlight to address the issue that could define the 2026 midterms: FC reports the former president will address the national conference of Advocates, Counselors, and Representatives for the Disabled.
The Hill: Alexandria Ocasio Cortez raises nearly $10M in first quarter of 2025
CNBC: AOC fundraising soars as the New York rep and Bernie Sanders barnstorm US against Trump
MI-GOV: Former Attorney General Mike Cox (R) announced today his campaign to be Michigan's next governor. Cox joins a growing field of GOP gubernatorial candidates, including Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt and US Rep. John James. Former gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon is said to be considering a run, along with Oakland County businessman Kevin Rinke.
Politico: Trump backer Bill Ackman supports Cuomo’s mayoral bid with $250K donation
Mark Zuckerberg tells court Meta faces broader competition than FTC says: WP reports the agency and the social media company face off over a landmark antitrust case that seeks to rein in the power of a Silicon Valley giant.
Inside Mark Zuckerberg’s failed negotiations to end antitrust case: The FTC wanted $30 billion to drop its case. Zuckerberg offered much less and hoped Trump would back him up. WSJ
How Wall Street got Donald Trump wrong: Titans of finance and business are beginning to realise they misread the president’s second-term priorities. FT
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
A It took a century to find this colossal squid: NYT reports an expedition spotted a baby of the species in the South Sandwich Islands. This cephalopod can grow to more than 20 feet and has proved elusive in its deep-sea environs.
Barnes & Noble is opening 60 new stores in 2025.
Twinkies’ new owner courts a novel group of snackers: Stoners: WSJ reports that JM Smucker is hoping to boost sales of Hostess snacks by connecting them to modern cultural moments, like 4/20 cannabis celebrations.
Starbucks's small dress code update is part of its bigger branding play: FC reports Starbucks has brand guidelines about its signature green color. Now that extends to employee dress.
Worldwide consumption of wine fell in 2024 to its lowest level in more than 60 years, the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV) said Tuesday, raising concerns about new risks from US tariffs.
Japan automakers make joint chip push to rival China's smart cars: Standardized 'chiplets' could save manufacturers both time and money. Nikkei
Hermès overtakes LVMH as world's most valuable luxury group: Le Monde reports the French group topped LVMH's value, reaching €248.6 billion ($280.5 billion) at the close of trading in Paris on Tuesday.
Hermès overtakes LVMH for luxury’s top spot after weak sales spark sell-off: FT reports the maker of Birkin bags is now the world’s most valuable luxury company, as investors bet on continued struggles at LVMH.
Fortune: LVMH says Sephora sales are slowing down in the US because Amazon is ‘very aggressive’ in lowering prices ‘and we try to avoid this technique’
Reuters: Microsoft signs large carbon removal deal backing AtmosClear's Louisiana project
This therapist helped clients feel better. It was AI: In the first clinical trial of its kind, an AI chatbot eased mental health symptoms among participants. The technology may someday help solve the provider shortage. NYT
OpenAI has updated its Preparedness Framework — the internal system it uses to assess the safety of AI models and determine necessary safeguards during development and deployment. In the update, OpenAI stated that it may “adjust” its safety requirements if a competing AI lab releases a “high-risk” system without similar protections in place.
AI industry ‘timelines’ to human-like AGI are getting shorter. But AI safety is getting increasingly short shrift Fortune
OpenAI is reportedly developing a social media platform that mirrors functionalities similar to X, with a focus on integrating ChatGPT's image generation capabilities into a social feed.
OpenAI wants to be more like Apple and Google: FC reports after expanding into internet search and exploring consumer gadgets, the company is now reportedly working on a social network.
What does OpenAI want with a social network? First, the social networks added chatbots. This time, it’s the other way around. John Herrman
OpenAI can’t afford to ignore Hollywood’s warning: In February, executives from OpenAI visited Los Angeles, hoping to strike deals with major Hollywood studios. They left empty handed. The studios declined partnerships to use Sora, the company’s AI–powered video generation tool, Bloomberg reported, citing concerns over how OpenAI would use their data and potential backlash from unions worried about job losses following the 2023 Hollywood strikes. Matt Steinberg
+ Matt Steinberg is a Tech and Public Policy Scholar at Georgetown University. He was previously a film and television development executive.
Anthropic is nearing the launch of a new voice assistant product for its Claude chatbot, nearly a year after rival OpenAI began rolling out a similar option for ChatGPT users.
Anthropic announced on Tuesday that its AI chatbot, Claude, now integrates with Google Workspace. This allows it to search and reference your emails in Gmail, scheduled events in Google Calendar, and documents in Google Docs.
Apple will begin analyzing data on customers’ devices in a bid to improve its artificial intelligence platform, a move designed to safeguard user information while still helping it catch up with AI rivals.
The debate over AI and copyright law is coming to a head in Silicon Valley: WP reports the tech industry is recoiling, arguing that without the fair-use exception, developing new AI products will be too time-consuming and expensive, or even impossible.
What can workers do if they’re fired by AI? Automated decisions are a source of under-appreciated tension in the UK government’s approach to low-paid employees. Sarah O’Connor
Hertz is alerting customers to a data breach involving drivers’ license numbers and other personal information following a hack in its supply chain.
*** Culture ***
India’s destination weddings fuel a new tourist economy: With growing affluence, more couples are choosing celebrations abroad. Bloomberg
A scientific formula for the perfect day: Four hours of exercise, six hours with family, and no doomscrolling – what could possibly go wrong? Telegraph
See how a Michigan town moved 9,100 books one by one to their new home AP
*** Sport ***
China accuses US spy agency of Winter Games cyberattacks: WSJ reports while the two superpowers are locked in a trade standoff, Beijing is growing increasingly aggressive in pushing back in other ways against perceived efforts to prevent China’s rise.
Universal Studios, Venice Beach to host LA 2028 events: AFP reports an iconic Hollywood studio lot and the golden sands of Venice Beach are among an array of Los Angeles landmarks that will stage events for the 2028 Olympic Games, organisers said Tuesday.
+ The venue for surfing was also confirmed, with the competition taking place at Trestles Beach in the coastal town of San Clemente.
Can Arsenal survive 90 minutes in European soccer’s torture chamber? The club is taking a 3-0 lead into the second leg of its Champions League
quarterfinal against Real Madrid. But now comes the hard part: It has to play in the Bernabéu Stadium. WSJ
CONCACAF President Victor Montagliani voiced his opposition to the recent proposal to expand the 2030 FIFA World Cup to 64 teams.
French Ligue 1 clubs on Tuesday voted in favour of breaking their domestic television deal with DAZN at the end of this season, leaving them facing an uncertain future.
Saints win fleur-de-lis trademark case over alleged descendant of French royalty: Guardian reports a man who claims to be a “direct descendant of the Kings of France” has lost his legal bid to wrest control of the fleur-de-lis symbol from the New Orleans Saints, after a US appeals court found he had no standing to challenge the team’s decades-old trademark.
How involved is Bill Belichick’s girlfriend at UNC? New emails show a glimpse inside her role TA
+ North Carolina football coach Bill Belichick drew headlines last month with an unusual request: The six–time Super Bowl-winning head coach wanted a Tar Heels administrator to copy his girlfriend on certain emails.
The long, expensive race to bring F1 back to Africa: It’s been more than 30 years since the last race on the continent. Bloomberg
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Marc Ross Daily | April 16
