Marc Ross Daily | April 18
Marc Ross Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for senior executives + comms pros.
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Happy Friday.
Here’s today’s Marc Ross Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
Straits Times: Japan’s early trade talks with the US offer countries few clues on the way forward
Donald Trump weighs in on Japan trade talks but Tokyo team leaves without deal: FT reports the first-in-queue negotiations closely watched for signs of US strategy.
Is the world losing faith in the almighty US dollar? Donald Trump’s trade war is forcing investors to confront the possibility that the dominance of the US currency might fade — or even end. FT
How a dollar crisis would unfold: If investors keep selling American assets, a grim fate awaits the world economy. Economist
How Mar-a-Lago memberships explain Trump’s tariff obsession: In the president’s eyes, tariffs might simply be the price other countries should pay for admission to a premium market. Bloomberg
Will Americans eat a $100 tariff on Shein packages? NYT reports the Trump administration’s plan to add steep fees to packages from China will deal a blow to Temu, Shein and some TikTok Shop sellers, worrying American consumers.
Shein and Temu reveal ‘price adjustments’ are coming soon for US customers: FC reports the Chinese e-retailers announced the increases, which are fallout from President Trump's aggressive tariffs on China.
How to swerve Donald Trump’s tariffs: Using cunning or flattery is a good start. Economist
The tariffs might be coming for Karoline Leavitt’s closet Danya Issawi
Tim Cook helps Apple out of tariff storm — for now: Apple’s CEO spoke to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick last week about the potential impact of the tariffs on iPhone prices. WP
Trump’s auto tariffs build on a long destructive history: It is US protectionism rather than trade barriers abroad that has undermined American carmakers. Alan Beattie
The ideological twist in Elon Musk’s tariff opposition: Politico reports that to flood the world with robotaxis and humanoid robots, Elon Musk needs open markets — and the kind of globalized trade Donald Trump’s tariff war is closing off.
The Trump administration took steps to impose levies on Chinese vessels docking at US ports, threatening to shake up global shipping routes and escalate the trade war between the world’s two biggest economies.
Shake hands, not fists: Xi’s weapon in China’s trade war game plan: China is ahead on diplomatic points, but it is not entirely game over for the US. Tan Dawn Wei
Analysis: Trump tariffs ironically cast spotlight on Beijing-led free trade: The US trades places and now advocates for 1990s Chinese-style protectionism. Nikkei
Southeast Asia walks tightrope between China and US: Chinese President Xi Jinping is staging a charm offensive in the region while US President Donald Trump inflicts massive tariff pain. DW
American hubris is bringing us to the brink of Chinese drone supremacy: In a protracted trade war scenario, Beijing is more likely to lend its technological capabilities to the US’s adversaries. Samuel Ramani
US says Chinese firm is helping Houthis target American warships: FT reports a satellite company linked to People’s Liberation Army has supplied images to Iran-backed group in Yemen, say officials.
Trump’s new chip controls on China set to cost US companies billions: WP reports President Donald Trump is doubling down on a policy Joe Biden introduced aimed at slowing China’s AI development.
How DeepSeek, deep pockets, and data centers are giving Asia an AI edge Fortune
Malaysia aspires to provide the backbone of the global AI boom. Will the bet pay off? Fortune
Trump spurs doubts over Australia's $234bn nuclear submarine plan: Risks of reliance on US for security and AUKUS emerge amid election campaign. Nikkei
Reuters: Moscow plans to use seized US-owned company to feed Russian army, document shows
Bloomberg: Trump says US to sign Ukraine minerals deal next Thursday
Straits Times: Ukraine’s Zelensky says Trump envoy Witkoff ‘spreading Russian narratives’
WP: Macron pushes new format for Ukraine talks after meeting with Rubio
After US talks, is Europe back in the game on Ukraine? DW reports France heralded positive momentum after talks that brought together US, Ukraine and European officials in Paris. Further meetings could help Ukraine's European allies shape the course of peace negotiations with Russia.
'Incredulous' at Trump's trade war, the European Central Bank continues to lower interest rates: Le Monde reports interest rates were reduced from 2.5% to 2.25%, marking the seventh consecutive cut, following the meeting of the Frankfurt-based institution on Thursday. The ECB believes that the tariffs will be 'negative' for European growth.
Trump expresses optimism on EU trade deal: WSJ reports Italy’s Meloni, visiting White House, invites president to visit for trade meetings.
Bloomberg: EU weighs export restrictions on US if trade negotiations fail
Trump says he’s ‘100%’ sure of US-Europe trade deal as Italian PM visits: WP reports President Donald Trump and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni are ideological allies but have yet to reach a deal to lower trade barriers.
The Times: Trump takes up King’s invitation to visit the UK in September
+ The president said it was ‘an honour to be a friend’ to the royal family
+ The King suggested that it could be a more informal trip to either Balmoral Castle or Dumfries House in Scotland, during which they could discuss the finer points of a full state visit. The King wrote that this might coincide with one of Trump’s trips to his Turnberry golf course on the west coast of Scotland.
Three ideas to energise British tech: A vibe shift is needed to close the gap between the UK and Silicon Valley. John Thornhill
Google faces potential $6.6 billion UK antitrust lawsuit over search advertising: WSJ reports the collective action says Google abused its dominant position to exclude competitors from searches.
A depleted Hamas is so low on cash that it can’t pay its fighters: WSJ reports Israel has disrupted the Gaza militant group’s sources of cash and ability to distribute it.
US is withdrawing hundreds of troops from Syria: NYT reports the end of the Assad era has reduced some threats, but the Islamic State has shown renewed strength in the country.
Trips from Canada to the US plummeted by nearly a million in March compared to last year: Toronto Star reports travel from Canada into the US continued to crater in March as Canadians boycott US tourism and avoid trips out of fear.
Mark Carney’s Liberals hold slim but persistent lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, polls suggest: Toronto Star reports heading into the Easter long weekend, Mark Carney's Liberals have a slim lead over Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives.
After tensions with pope, Vance, a Catholic convert, to visit Vatican: WP reports the vice president’s trip comes as Vatican officials are alarmed by the Trump administration’s campaign against migrants and its cuts to foreign aid.
Searching for the Catholic Church’s centre of gravity: How has its influence changed over time? Economist
*** US Politics + Elections ***
US recession odds jump to 45%, according to this poll: FC reports economists polled by Reuters say the Trump administration's tariff policy will cause the US economy to significantly slow down in 2025.
Bloomberg: Beneath market’s uneasy calm, dread runs deep across Wall Street
Zillow projects that US home prices will fall -1.7% between March 2025 and March 2026.
America’s mad king: The president has grown more impulsive, more vindictive, and more anarchic. Peter Wehner
Meet MAGA’s favorite Communist: Conservative activists like Christopher Rufo are taking inspiration from Antonio Gramsci, the 20th-century Marxist thinker who drew up a battle plan for winning culture wars. WSJ
Supreme Court to hear arguments on Trump plan to end birthright citizenship: NYT reports the Trump administration had asked the justices to lift a nationwide pause on the policy as lower court challenges continue.
Trump has for months privately discussed firing Fed Chair Powell: WSJ reports the president hasn’t made a decision on whether to try to oust Powell, and some of his advisers have warned against the move.
Rubio shuts State Dept. foreign disinformation office, citing censorship: WP reports the secretary of state announced the bureau’s closure -- claiming it had been used to censor Americans -- in a live interview with conservative activist Michael Benz.
Musk’s fury over a Tesla investigation foreshadowed his war on Washington: The upcoming “Hubris Maximus” book details Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s disregard for the public and his contempt for regulators charged with overseeing his companies. WP
Elon Musk focuses donations on GOP lawmakers targeting judges: WP reports the off-year spending pattern reflects the billionaire’s increasing criticism of judges who rule against the Trump administration.
Reuters: Musk's SpaceX is frontrunner to build Trump's Golden Dome missile shield
AP: Nearly 90% of consumer financial protection bureau cut as as Trump’s government downsizing continues
Bloomberg: Trump administration takes over New York Penn Station revamp
Nearly 50 House Democrats say no to unauthorized AI in Trump administration: Reuters reports nearly 50 Democrats in the US House of Representatives signed onto the message, seen by Reuters, expressing concern about AI's use by the Department of Government Efficiency. Republican President Donald Trump set up DOGE and tasked billionaire Elon Musk to cut what they say is waste, fraud and abuse in the federal bureaucracy.
Democrats draw on renewed energy in the fight against Trump: NBC News reports Democratic base frustrated by “elites” early after Trump’s inauguration has been growing more active — raising money, turning out for protests and eager for the midterms.
Democrats step up Trump resistance as base hungers for more of a fight: NYT reports out of power in Congress, Democrats who were slow to fight back against President Trump are increasingly finding ways to do so. But activists want much more.
Harris will help Democrats raise cash as she steps back into politics: NYT reports still weighing her next moves, former Vice President Kamala Harris is set to headline a fund-raiser for the Democratic National Committee next month in New York.
Trump and Vance fear universities for a reason: For liberal democracy to weather moments of crisis, institutions and individuals must stand firm. Ro Khanna
Google illegally monopolized some online advertising technology markets, according to a federal judge, whose ruling marked the latest antitrust setback for the company and a challenge to its main source of revenue.
Bloomberg: Roblox, Discord scrutinized by states over child safety issues
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
AI generates loads of carbon emissions. It’s starting to cut them, too: Shrinking the world’s carbon footprint will require poring over vast datasets to spot solutions — something computers do better and faster than humans. Bloomberg
WP: OpenAI gives itself leeway to “adjust” its safety requirements
OpenAI’s mind-boggling growth masks challenges: As it races towards 1bn users the AI company needs to explain what, exactly, ChatGPT is for. Richard Waters
Wikipedia is giving AI developers its data to fend off bot scrapers: The Verge reports data science platform Kaggle is hosting a Wikipedia dataset that’s specifically optimized for machine learning applications.
Chatbot Arena, an academic research project whose website has become a popular place for visitors to try out new artificial intelligence models, is turning into a company.
Google’s AI summaries have responded to some internet searches about abortion by echoing talking points from organizations that attempt to dissuade women from ending their pregnancies, according to a Campaign for Accountability report.
The AI starter pack trend is taking over LinkedIn and TikTok: FC reports OpenAI’s GPT-4o image generator is fueling a viral wave of personalized action figures. Not everyone is thrilled.
The chip industry has too many eggs in the AI basket: WSJ reports TSMC struck an upbeat note after posting strong earnings, but tariffs and the trade war loom large.
Uber is in talks to acquire Turkish food delivery platform Trendyol Go, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Tesla is scaling down its Cybertruck production goals and transferring some workers to other production lines, Business Insider reported. Cybertruck sales have slumped amid a slew of recalls and investor concerns over the future of the EV-maker. Tesla has recently incentivized Cybertruck purchases with perks and a cheaper model.
Netflix, unscathed by tariffs, posts record profit: WSJ reports the streamer forecasts stronger revenue growth in the second quarter.
Detroit think tank on city's future: 'We are at a turning point' Detroit News
*** Culture ***
Is Warfare the most realistic war film ever made? In Alex Garland and Ray Mendoza’s brutal and immersive new film, memory informs the events that take place in real time to a unit of soldiers in Iraq. The Guardian
Two vegan lovers, an AI ‘cult,’ and a trail of dead bodies: Max and Milo saw a future where meat-eaters enslaved all. They would do anything to stop it. NY Mag
Easter and Passover lesson: It’s never too late: Consider the story of the good thief in Luke, and the Jewish idea of teshuva, or returning to goodness. Peggy Noonan
WP: Fyre Festival 2 calls off Mexico plans but insists event is not dead
*** Sport ***
Justin Rose did not Lose the Masters: Rory McIlroy captures a milestone as his friend and golf rival sets an example of sportsmanship. Who isn’t rooting for the runner-up now? Jason Gay
MLB commissioner met with President Trump amid Pete Rose discourse: WP reports the specifics of their discussion were not immediately clear, but the meeting comes after Trump criticized MLB for keeping Rose ineligible for induction into the Hall of Fame.
They are the die-hard fans of Milan’s soccer teams — and mafia-linked: After two leaders of Inter Milan’s ultra group were killed, investigators concluded that the fan clubs of the Milan teams were run by the Italian mafia. WP
Did Joy Taylor play the game? The Fox Sports host has been blamed, alongside powerful men, for misogyny and quid pro quo at FS1. Does she deserve it? NY Mag
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Marc Ross Daily | April 18
