Caracal Daily | October 21

Caracal Daily | October 21

Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.

Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.

Always Be Communicating.

Happy Monday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

Israel killed Sinwar by forcing him from the tunnels: WSJ reports the Israeli military attacked strategic underground complexes in Gaza, pushing Yahya Sinwar to leave the safety of Hamas’s labyrinth.

Israel, Hamas battle to define final images of Yahya Sinwar: WP reports while Israel is trying to portray images of his last moments as those of a fugitive, his supporters have seized on the same visuals to glorify him as a fighter.

Israel rehearses ‘major missile strike’ on Iran: The Times reports US satellite intelligence documents leaked to pro-Iranian social media ­accounts show Israel holding military drills for a big airborne attack.

Israel said it had arrested seven Israeli citizens after uncovering a long-standing operation to spy on sensitive military and energy installations on behalf of Iran.

Blinken to visit Israel in latest push for Gaza cease-fire: NYT reports Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken is expected to depart on Monday in a renewed effort to bring calm to the region. The State Department did not say which other countries he might stop in.

North Korea ‘sending troops to fight in Ukraine’: The Times reports a video of North Korean soldiers in Russia raises fears that weeks of Ukrainian warnings that the war is expanding may be true.

South Korea asks Russia to stop apparent North Korean troop deployment: FT reports Seoul calls in ambassador amid concerns about Pyongyang involvement in Ukraine conflict.

The foreigners fighting and dying for Vladimir Putin: Many were tricked into the war in Ukraine. The Economist

Russia turns Mariupol’s steel mills from battle zone to spoils of war: WSJ reports Moscow’s patronage enriches a Kremlin-friendly warlord from Chechnya by letting him plunder a big metals plant.

Amid uncertainty over US backing, Pentagon chief visits Ukraine: WP reports the trip comes just two weeks before an election that could determine whether the United States continues its campaign of
massive military support.

How Russia’s spies hacked the entire nation of Georgia: With an election this week, documents seen by Bloomberg expose the extent of Moscow’s infiltration of the former Soviet state. Bloomberg

Moldova referendum: Voters say yes to EU despite ‘Russian meddling’: The Times reports preliminary results suggest a narrow victory for President Sandu in the vote to embed European Union membership in the country’s constitution.

Moldovans back EU accession talks by razor-thin majority: FT reports President Maia Sandu had hoped for stronger support for her policy of closer integration with Europe.

Tuesday: Russia hosts a two-day BRICS summit in Kazan.

Putin’s plan to defeat the dollar: He hopes this week’s BRICS summit will spark a sanctions-busting big bang. The Economist

India + China have reached an agreement on patrolling arrangements along their disputed border, according to a senior Indian official, paving the way for an easing of tensions between the two Asian giants.

China + India agreed to allow each others’ troops to patrol the disputed border between the two countries, a significant step toward ending a four-year stalemate as leaders from both nuclear-armed nations possibly meet at a BRICS summit this week.

Threat of Chinese overcapacity looms over memory chips: WSJ reports vital technology component could be next industry to grapple with abundance from Asian country.

Why Chinese are rushing into a ‘casino’ stock market: Steps to bolster the economy have set off a stock buying frenzy. Our columnist spoke to Chinese investors about why they are jumping in knowing the risks. NYT

Does China welcome—or dread—an Iran-Israel war? It wants American interests to suffer, but not at any price. The Economist

Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia’s president, who took office on Sunday, unveiled his new cabinet. Around one third of the members were part of the administration of his predecessor, Joko Widodo, better known as Jokowi.

New Zealand’s biggest pivot since the 1980s: An interview with Christopher Luxon, the prime minister reshaping its foreign policy. The Economist

Australian senator heckles Charles: ‘You are not my king’: WP reports indigenous lawmaker Lidia Thorpe was removed from an event at Australia’s Parliament after accusing the British royal family of “genocide” and stealing land.

King Charles heckled by Australian senator: ‘Give us our land back’: The Times reports Lidia Thorpe, an indigenous senator, shouted ‘you are not my king’ after the monarch’s address to parliament in Canberra. Charles and Camilla appeared to take no notice.

Who is Lidia Thorpe? Australian senator who heckled King Charles: The native Australian has caused controversy by campaigning against the ‘colonizing’ monarchy and refusing to stand in front of the national flag. The Times

Keir Starmer flies to Samoa to answer tricky questions from Commonwealth allies: FT reports slavery reparations and Britain’s shrinking aid budget up for debate at annual summit this week.

Scatter and survive: Inside a US military shift to deny China ‘big, juicy’ targets: America is upgrading far-off runways and reviving World War II airfields to counter the threat of China’s enormous missile arsenal. WSJ

Crises at Boeing and Intel are a national emergency: The two companies once set the standard for world-class engineering and manufacturing. Their troubles weaken America. Greg Ip

Wanted: Weekend warriors in tech: A new Defense Department initiative would recruit Silicon Valley’s top technical minds to join the reserves as officers. WSJ

Power, as well as price, matters in a well-run economy: That’s the lesson to take from both the founding of the Bretton Woods system 80 years ago and the Biden administration today. Rana Foroohar

The election is a referendum on America’s role in the world: The post-World War II international order is hanging in the balance. Max Boot

What the world thinks of Harris versus Trump: Strongman leaders around the globe would welcome a victory for the Republican former president. Gideon Rachman

***  US Politics + Elections ***

Donald Trump takes the lead, as polls swing away from Kamala Harris: The Economist reports that for the first time in two months, Donald Trump has taken the lead in their model, giving him a 54 in 100 chance of winning the election.

Candidates step up attacks after Trump erases Harris’s lead: WSJ reports with two weeks to go, the vice president courts GOP-leaning voters in swing states, while the former president’s off-script moments play to core supporters.

US election: Harris and Trump make it personal in final fortnight: The Times reports that the vice president has stepped up her attacks on Donald Trump’s mental fitness, but she faces accusations of hypocrisy after campaigning for President Biden’s re-election.

Bloomberg: Harris and Trump scrap for few undecided voters as race tightens

Harris and Trump locked in dead heat in poll of seven battleground states: WP reports the Post-Schar School survey also focuses on a group of registered voters who have not been firmly committed to any candidate. The new results show changes among this group.

Inside the last-ditch hunt by Harris and Trump for undecided voters: NYT reports both campaigns are digging through troves of data to find these crucial Americans. They both think many are younger, Black or Latino. The Harris team is also eyeing white, college-educated women.

A Pennsylvania road trip finds voters full of doubt, anger and unease: The Post drove 1,000 miles talking to voters in the most critical battleground state and found worries about Harris, fears about Trump and uncertainty all over. WP

Democrats dream of a Blue Texas. What will they wake up to in November? If Texas flips, it would change everything. But the longstanding prophecy has never quite come true. WP

Montana becomes crucial battleground for control of Congress: State unaccustomed to national attention contends with blizzard of political advertising over key Senate race. FT

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

Bloomberg: Apple CEO Tim Cook’s other job: Helping Nike turn things around

Tim Cook on why Apple’s huge bets will pay off: The CEO of the world’s most valuable company led two of the biggest product launches of his tenure this year—and believes they will be as life-changing for the rest of us as they are for him. WSJ

Axios interview: DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis sees "watershed moment" for AI Axios

AI search start-up Perplexity targets $8bn valuation in new funding round: FT reports investor frenzy over artificial intelligence continues after OpenAI valued at $150bn in latest fundraising.

AI and robots take center stage at ‘world’s largest tech event’: CNN reports a year after Collins Dictionary named “AI” its word of the year, the buzz around artificial intelligence is only getting louder. AI and robotics were the big themes at Gitex Global, which bills itself as the world’s largest tech event and ran Monday to Friday last week at Dubai’s World Trade Centre.

Microsoft’s AI bots can pick up office workers’ tedious tasks: The technology behemoth is rolling out its ‘autonomous agents’ that are set to transform the workplace. The Times

CNBC: Microsoft to roll out new autonomous AI agents next month, fending off challenge from Salesforce

Microsoft is launching a set of artificial intelligence tools designed to send emails, manage records, and take other actions on behalf of business workers, expanding an AI push that intensifies competition with rivals like Salesforce Inc.

Microsoft signs deal with Whitehall: The Times reports the product agreement with the government follows the tech group’s UK boss being appointed an adviser on industrial strategy.

Reuters: IBM releases new AI models for businesses as genAI competition heats up

TikTok owner, ByteDance, says it has sacked an intern for "maliciously interfering" with the training of one of its artificial intelligence (AI) models.

AI detectors falsely accuse students of cheating—with big consequences: About two-thirds of teachers report regularly using tools for detecting AI-generated content. At that scale, even tiny error rates can add up quickly. Bloomberg

Bloomberg: TSMC's dominance is starting to worry more than just rivals

So long, suburbia! Townhouses should be the new American Dream. Americans are desperate for more affordable and low-maintenance housing options. WP

Bloomberg: Decade of big S&P 500 gains is over, Goldman strategists say

US consumers are planning shorter winter holiday trips and booking cheaper accommodations in a sign of how years of inflation continue to hammer family budgets.

*** Culture ***

Stanley Tucci doesn’t think sweatpants should be worn in public: The actor and author of the new book ‘What I Ate in One Year’ talks about the perfect pasta dish, the one ingredient he can’t stand and ‘The Devil Wears Prada’ sequel rumors. WSJ

The horrors of the reply-all email thread: Easy to start, impossible to stop. The Economist

*** Sport ***

They were the team left for dead. Now they’re WNBA champions. A few seasons ago, the New York Liberty were left in a rinky-dink arena far outside the five boroughs. On Sunday, they won the WNBA title. Jason Gay

WP: Dodgers advance to World Series, setting up a star-studded matchup with the Yankees

NYT: After 43 years, Yankees and Dodgers resume their World Series rivalry

TA: Charles Leclerc wins F1 US Grand Prix, Lando Norris loses podium to late penalty


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal