Marc Ross Daily | April 15
Marc Ross Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for senior executives + comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. I am here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Tuesday.
Here’s today’s Marc Ross Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
Trump is right about unfair trade, but tariffs aren’t the right fix: Protectionism makes industries less competitive. Allison Schrager
Trump is pursuing a radical agenda. Does he have a strategy, or is he winging it? The haphazard execution of the administration’s initiatives is leading to chaos and confusion for the American public and U.S. trading partners. Dan Balz
The reality is the US is losing control of the world: The American president wants the 'Pax Americana' to be sustained by tribute payments from the rest of the world in order to endlessly fund US deficits. But with American power already in decline, we must begin to imagine a world without it. Thomas Piketty
Short-term pain will lead to long-term gain, says Trump. Really? America will be a country with shabbier roads, older airports and more dated factories. Economist
The dollar keeps falling as its ‘safe haven’ status is questioned: NYT reports President Trump’s tariff blitz has rattled investors and shaken their faith in one of the most reliable and ubiquitous assets in the world economy.
Xi calls on China, Vietnam to oppose 'bullying' amid trade friction with US: NHK reports Xi Jinping has said in his talks with Vietnam's Communist Party General Secretary To Lam that the two countries should jointly oppose unilateral bullying.
‘No winners in a trade war’ says China’s leader Xi Jinping amid tariff anxiety in Southeast Asia: FC reports Xi Jinping looked to distance China from Trump’s tariff blitz while on a diplomatic tour that will cover Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia.
Donald Trump’s China trade war a ‘boon’ for Brazil but sends US farmers reeling: FT reports Latin America’s largest economy is poised to extend its lead as China’s top food supplier.
Trump’s policy on China is a strategic blunder: US will pay a high price in both wealth and influence after underestimating Beijing’s resolve not to be pushed around. William Hague
Xi Jinping has something Trump doesn’t Benjamin Hart
Why Xi holds a stronger hand than Trump: The White House has miscalculated the balance of power in its tariff war with China. Gideon Rachman
America the unstable: The US will pay a market penalty for Trump’s turmoil. Rana Foroohar
+ Flexport ocean freight bookings from Vietnam passed bookings from China for the first time last week.
+ The US will begin imposing tariffs of more than 20% on most imports of tomatoes from Mexico, citing “unfairly priced” shipments from the country.
LVMH sales fall sharply in warning sign for the luxury industry: FT reports that slowing demand in the US and ongoing struggles in China will raise concerns for an industry grappling with Trump’s tariffs.
At China’s wholesale hub, US orders have suddenly halted. One example: Socks. Chinese sellers remain confident despite higher tariffs, saying it no longer makes sense to sell everyday goods to Americans. WSJ
‘It’s going to be messy’: Americans on how Trump’s tariffs are shaping their spending: Fallout from Trump’s trade war is forcing some Guardian readers to cut back or stock up on items from food to cars. Guardian
+ @FT: Since 1990 America has lost over 5mn manufacturing jobs. In that time, it has gained 11.8mn roles in professional and business services, and 3.3mn in transportation and logistical activities, linked to multinational supply chains.
+ A group of American businesses sued the Trump administration to block its sweeping tariffs from taking effect, arguing that it overstepped its authority in imposing the levies.
US tech tariff exemption will be temporary, says Trump: FT reports the US president says products given reprieve will fall under separate regime.
+ Apple has increased its iPhone production in India by almost 60%.
+ “The mass confusion created by this constant news flow out of the White House is dizzying for the industry and investors and creating massive uncertainty and chaos for companies trying to plan their supply chain, inventory, and demand.” -- Dan Ives, a senior analyst for Wedbush, sums up the latest twists and turns in the Trump administration’s tariff plans.
Global stocks lifted by US reprieve for Donald Trump’s tech tariffs: FT reports that the president suggests need for ‘flexibility’ but insists smartphone exemption is temporary.
Reuters: Nvidia to produce AI servers worth up to $500 billion in US over four years
CNBC: Nvidia to mass produce AI supercomputers in Texas as part of $500 billion US push
Bloomberg: Nvidia says it will build up to $500 billion of AI gear in US
Nvidia’s Made-in-the-USA move follows a familiar Trump pattern: WSJ reports the chip maker’s plan to build AI tech in Texas comes on the heels of a new tariff threat.
Reuters: Tariffs on imported semiconductor chips coming soon, Trump says
Toronto Star: Trump says he might give tariff exemption to Canadian auto parts
Trump tariffs: EU pauses countermeasures until July: DW reports the EU said the bloc would hold off on retaliatory tariffs to allow "time" for negotiations. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping said there are "no winners" in trade wars.
China halts critical exports as trade war intensifies: NYT reports Beijing has suspended exports of certain rare earth minerals and magnets that are crucial for the world’s car, semiconductor and aerospace industries.
How India’s middle-class debt crisis is threatening growth: A rise in unsecured credit among a consumer group that symbolises the country’s investment potential is hurting its economic ambitions. FT
Sudan: 400,000 forced to flee Zamzam camp in Darfur: DW reports The United Nations has reported that fighting in Darfur has forced hundreds of thousands to flee the region's largest displacement camp. An upcoming international aide conference hopes to open the door for more support.
Russia continues to rain down death on Ukrainian cities: Economist reports soldiers can hold the line, but drones and missiles are killing civilians.
Ukraine, allies decry deadly Russian strike on Sumy: DW reports after more than 30 civilians in Ukraine were killed by a Russian missile strike, US President Donald Trump called the attack a "horrible thing." Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged for more pressure on Russia to end the war.
EU issues US-bound staff with burner phones over spying fears: FT reports that European Commission officials heading to IMF and World Bank spring meetings advised to travel with basic devices.
Why this French tech company wants to build an internet that doesn’t have to rely on Donald Trump’s America Toronto Star
The challenge of reindustrialization in France: Factories, yes, but 'not in my backyard': Le Monde reports a number of industrial projects are being challenged by groups of local residents and environmental opponents. These tensions raise the question of the social acceptability of factories at a time when France is seeking to reindustrialize.
Ecuador imposes state of emergency before razor-close election: BAT reports on the eve of a too-close-to-call presidential run-off and reacting a dramatic rise in drug-linked violence, Ecuador declares a state of emergency in seven of its 24 provinces, including the capital.
Javier Milei’s big move to normalise Argentina’s economy: A gob of IMF cash will help partially float the peso, but political and market risks abound. Economist
Trump, Milei and how to lose the trust of markets and voters: Trump stepped back from the edge, at least momentarily, even though he is keeping his finger on the trigger. Agustino Fontevecchia
What the polls in Canada are really saying: A top Canadian pollster explains how Trump completely upended the election. Politico
‘Sometimes the truth hurts’: Doug Ford weighs in as polls suggest Carney’s Liberals remain ahead of Poilievre’s Conservatives: Toronto Star reports Mark Carney's Liberals are solidifying their lead over Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives, according to Star's election predictor, the Signal.
Can Mark Carney stand up to Donald Trump? Supporters say the former central bank governor is the man for the moment as he campaigns to be Canada’s PM. FT
Canadians are cashing out their American vacation homes: WSJ reports political uncertainty, coupled with a weak Canadian dollar, is driving owners to sell properties they’ve had for decades.
As trade war tensions rise, one US city sends love to Canadian tourists: ‘We’re with you’: Toronto Star reports the city that is heavily reliant on Canadian tourism is trying to show appreciation for its northern visitors — and hopefully, stave off a boycott.
Army to control land on Mexico border as part of base, migrants could be detained, officials say: AP reports a long sliver of federal land along the US-Mexico border that President Donald Trump is turning over to the Department of Defense would be controlled by the Army as part of a base, which could allow troops to detain any trespassers, including migrants.
Trump official who oversaw closure of USAID has left State Department: WSJ reports Pete Marocco led the foreign-assistance mission at the State Department.
Trump plan would slash State Dept. funding by nearly half, memo says: WP reports funding for the United Nations, NATO, and 20 other organizations would be ended, the internal document states. It also describes a total cut in funding for peacekeeping missions.
AP: Trump criticizes Iran for ‘tapping us along’ with second round of nuclear talks set for Saturday
*** US Politics + Elections ***
How to turn Trump’s economic chaos against him James Carville
Voters are not happy with Trump’s trade war: The economy was a longtime polling asset for the president. Now, it’s a liability. Leon Sit + Max McCall
Trump’s tariffs war is sparking uncertainty for North Carolina farmers: “It’s always been a guessing game here on the farm, but I think it’s more of a guess now than it’s ever been in my lifetime,” one North Carolina farmer said last week. WP
Trump throws another Hail Mary: Coach Woody Hayes’s warning could apply to the ambitious and confident president. Walter Russell Mead
YouGov: President Trump approval:
Approve: 41%
Disapprove: 54%
Republicans set to largely avoid town halls during the congressional recess: NBC News reports as lawmakers head home for two weeks, Democrats are again taunting Republicans about the anger they’ve faced at town halls.
The Hill: Republicans fear Trump’s trade war could lead to political wipeout
Risk of failure looms large as GOP starts drafting the ‘big, beautiful bill’: Politico reports Republicans are hoping that speed and a push from Donald Trump can keep their legislative agenda afloat.
White House to ask Congress to claw back funding from NPR and PBS: NYT reports the plan is to request that $1.1 billion in federal funding be rescinded for the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, a person briefed on the matter said.
Kristi Noem’s made-for-TV approach to homeland security: WSJ reports the agency’s chief has put her focus on messaging as much as action.
A podcast star rallied Silicon Valley to back Trump. Now he’s the nation’s tech czar. David Sacks led the tech elite’s rightward shift. Now the investor and longtime Musk associate is helping Trump unchain the crypto industry. WP
MAGA’s class warfare against knowledge workers is personal Ed Kilgore
AP: Suspect arrested in arson fire that forced Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, family to flee residence
Harrisburg man to be charged with attempted murder for allegedly setting fire to Gov. Josh Shapiro’s Harrisburg residence: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) and his family were uninjured, but the fire caused a "significant amount of damage" to parts of the governor's mansion, according to state police.
Suspect in Pennsylvania governor’s mansion fire charged with terrorism: WSJ reports Gov. Josh Shapiro and his family were asleep in the house when Cody Balmer broke in and lit several fires, according to authorities.
New Mexico man arrested for ‘hurling firebombs’ at Teslas: WSJ reports Attorney General Pam Bondi says she is seeking up to 40 years in prison.
Greene bought market dip before Trump paused tariffs, profiting from the rally: NYT reports the Georgia congresswoman purchased at least tens of thousands of dollars in stock the day before and the day of President Trump’s pause of a sweeping set of tariffs that sent the market soaring.
Whitmer says she didn't want her picture taken when she hid her face in the Oval Office Detroit News
Whitmer makes light of viral Trump moment in Detroit speech to business leaders Detroit Free Press
Detroit Free Press: Duggan talks 2-party 'death grip' on Michigan, predicts 'nastiest' campaign cycle in 2026
Detroit Free Press: Mike Rogers makes it official, he's running again for Michigan's next open US Senate seat
US prepares to challenge Meta’s social media dominance: NYT reports on Monday, Meta will face off against the federal government in a landmark antitrust trial over claims that it illegally quashed competition by buying Instagram and WhatsApp.
Reuters: Facebook owner Meta bought Instagram, WhatsApp instead of competing, FTC says at trial
Meta fights to keep Instagram and WhatsApp, as antitrust trial begins: WSJ reports the Federal Trade Commission says Meta has monopolized the social-media market—and should be broken up.
Zuckerberg takes stand to defend Meta against antitrust suit: NYT reports Mark Zuckerberg went to court on Monday in a trial focused on his company’s acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp. The case could reshape Meta’s business.
Elon Musk and Jack Dorsey want to kill IP law. That would be a huge mistake: As the two tech moguls call for the abolition of intellectual property law, experts warn that such a move could gut innovation and dismantle decades of legal protections. FC
GM’s Mary Barra has to make a $35 billion EV bet work in Trump’s America: The US automaker is up against tariffs, an oil-loving president and Elon Musk in the White House. Bloomberg
Bloomberg: Harvard hit with $2.2 billion freeze after defying Trump
Harvard says it will fight demands from Trump administration: WSJ reports the university will resist demands from the government, which has threatened to withhold nearly $9 billion in funding.
Harvard rejects Trump administration’s demands with federal funding at risk: WP reports the university’s response comes after the government announced a federal review of nearly $9 billion in funding for Harvard and its affiliates.
Uber and Lyft drivers in California could get the right to unionize under this bill: FC reports Assembly Bill 1340 would give rideshare drivers in California the right to unionize and negotiate for better pay, protections, and transparency—setting up a likely clash with Uber and Lyft.
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
A Blue Origin rocket sent pop star Katy Perry and company founder Jeff Bezos’ fiancee Lauren Sánchez on a trip to the edge of space and back, the first time an all-female crew went to space in more than 60 years.
Honda Motor Co. has created a space business unit in the US to promote its technology and spur more collaboration with American companies.
Self-driving truck startup Kodiak to go public in $2.5 billion SPAC deal: WSJ reports the deal comes amid slow market for US IPOs as several firms work—and sometimes struggle—to automate long-haul trucking.
Beyond BP: John Browne on the oil company’s green U-turn: Former CEO reflects on renewables backlash as he prepares to stand for election as Cambridge university chancellor. FT
60%: The percentage of general admission ticket buyers at Coachella who used "Buy-Now-Pay-Later" to finance their tickets, per Billboard.
Movie and TV filming in the greater Los Angeles area declined 22% in the first quarter, reflecting a worldwide slump in production and California’s continued loss of business to other areas.
When will AI be smarter than humans? Don’t ask: The term “artificial general intelligence” is being bandied about by some of tech’s smartest people, but nobody knows what it really means. Gideon Lichfield
Khosla-backed energy startup nabs $258 million to help power data centers: Mainspring Energy’s generators are able to run on different types of gas, including carbon-free hydrogen. Bloomberg
Netflix is testing new search technology for subscribers that employs artificial intelligence to help them find TV shows and movies, expanding its use of the technology. The OpenAI-powered search engine lets customers look for shows using far more specific terms, including the subscriber’s mood, for example.
Netflix aims to join the $1 trillion club: WSJ reports the streaming service has shared financial performance targets with staff that underscore its dominance.
AI+EQ is transforming healthcare, not just for doctors: As doctors use AI to rehumanize patient care, the systems below the surface need a human touch, too. FC
AI weather models promise super granular, specialist forecasts: The insurance industry is helping develop a new way to predict flooding down to the neighborhood level and warn communities. Bloomberg
Google is searching for an answer to ChatGPT: Big changes are underway for the internet’s most popular product, and Google (and the web) may never be the same. Bloomberg
Cyberattacks by AI agents are coming: Agents could make it easier and cheaper for criminals to hack systems at scale. We need to be ready. Rhiannon Williams
The most dangerous hackers you’ve never heard of: From crypto kingpins to sophisticated scammers, these are the lesser-known hacking groups that should be on your radar. Wired
*** Culture ***
A celebration of curiosity: David Hockney's greatest hits at the Fondation Louis Vuitton: The Paris institution has dedicated a major retrospective to the 87-year-old British painter. Le Monde
What makes Wes Anderson's style so unique? The American filmmaker has created around 20 short and feature films with his own colorful and poetic touch. But what makes his films so distinctive? After 19 hours of viewing, Le Monde's Les Décodeurs offer you a brief guide to the world of Wes Anderson. Le Monde
*** Sport ***
The lunch with Jack Nicklaus that won Rory McIlroy the Masters: Rory McIlroy burst onto the scene as a powerful dynamo. He finally won the career grand slam by evolving his game to navigate courses like a wily veteran. WSJ
Rory McIlroy’s messy masterpiece at Augusta: After a hectic, near-disastrous collapse, a golfing giant finally seals the deal. Jason Gay
NYT: Dallas Wings select Paige Bueckers with No. 1 pick in WNBA draft
Detroit Free Press: Joe Dumars, former Piston, a 'serious frontrunner' to become head of Pelicans basketball ops
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Marc Ross Daily | April 10
Marc Ross Daily | April 10
Marc Ross Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for senior executives + comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. I am here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Thursday.
Here’s today’s Marc Ross Daily:
*** Ross Rant ***
Trump's trade war: Creating chaos + Claiming victory
In a bewildering display of global economic management, Team Trump has once again employed its signature strategy: create a crisis, partially resolve it, and then declare an unprecedented victory.
The recent trade chaos, which Team Trump will undoubtedly declare "The Art of the Deal," reveals an unprecedented pattern of governance emanating from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue through manufactured chaos.
After threatening massive tariffs that sent global markets into a nosedive, Team Trump has now pulled back on some measures while maintaining others—then declared this retreat a masterful negotiation.
The reality is far more concerning.
The economic costs of this approach have been substantial. The administration triggered a cascade of market disruptions by abruptly announcing sweeping tariffs against virtually all major trading partners simultaneously. American companies found themselves scrambling to adjust supply chains built over decades. Construction projects faced sudden cost increases. Restaurants like Cava began calculating how tariffs on everything from Canadian paper bowls to Greek olive oil would affect their bottom line.
"It's like going to a restaurant where the menu keeps changing before you order," Brett Schulman, Cava's CEO, was quoted in the Wall Street Journal. "No one feels confident making a decision."
This uncertainty is what businesses fear most—it paralyzes investment, delays expansion, and ultimately costs jobs.
Even with the partial pullback, the United States has positioned itself as an outlier in global trade policy. As economist Jason Furman points out, "We are now at a 24 percent average tariff rate, making the US the highest tariff country in the world—leapfrogging pikers such as Iran and Venezuela with average rates of 12 and 14 percent, respectively."
Heavy-handed tariffs like this are unprecedented territory for an advanced economy. No other nation with our level of prosperity maintains such protectionist barriers.
Team Trump's approach defies conventional economic wisdom across the political spectrum. No coherent school of thought—whether from conservative free-market proponents or progressive economists—supports simultaneously antagonizing every major trading partner.
As Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times aptly described, the White House has "taken an axe to the supply chains of many of the world's leading multinationals."
What's particularly troubling about this approach is that it likely won't achieve its stated goals. Trade deficits—Trump's obsession—typically reflect macroeconomic factors like savings and investment rates rather than trade barriers. The most probable outcome is not a manufacturing renaissance but higher prices for American consumers and businesses.
Consider your Mediterranean lunch bowl at Cava. When import taxes hit olive oil, feta, and tahini, restaurants must pass those costs to customers. Team Trump touts these tariffs as "protecting American jobs," but the reality is more expensive meals, furniture, and appliances.
Our allies, meanwhile, watch with growing concern. Nations that have been steadfast partners now face unexpected economic aggression from their most important ally. Many have already announced retaliatory measures, creating a spiraling cycle of protectionism that historical evidence suggests will leave everyone worse off.
The trade conflicts also distract from opportunities for genuine economic cooperation on issues like intellectual property protection, market access, and technology transfers—areas where targeted, multilateral approaches might yield real benefits.
What makes this approach particularly dangerous is its unpredictability. Markets function best with clear rules and expectations. When policy becomes erratic—shifting dramatically based on presidential whims rather than careful analysis—the economic consequences extend beyond immediate price changes to long-term investment decisions and strategic planning.
By declaring victory after creating a crisis of its own making, Team Trump demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of leadership. True negotiating strength comes not from threatening allies or disrupting established systems but building coalitions around shared interests and values.
As consumers soon discover the real costs of these policies at restaurants, car dealerships, and retail stores, the supposed victory will reveal itself as merely a retreat from a self-inflicted wound—one that leaves lasting economic scars while solving none of the underlying challenges it purported to address.
Enjoy the ride + Plan accordingly.
-Marc
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
Bloomberg: Trump says tariffs paused for 90 days on non-retaliating countries
Bloomberg: ‘Is it real?!’ NYSE trading floor erupts as Trump pauses tariffs
FT: US stocks surge as Trump pauses ‘reciprocal’ tariffs for 90 days
WSJ: Nasdaq soars to best day since 2001 after Trump pauses some tariffs
Trump’s top trade official wasn’t informed of tariff delay until after announcement: CNN reports at the same moment that US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer was defending Trump’s stiff tariffs during a House hearing, Trump said on his social media platform that the administration will delay the additional tariff hike on dozens of countries by 90 days — which went into effect for mere hours on Wednesday — with the exception of China.
Trump blinks on tariffs, again, for now: The President pauses on some tariffs amid a bond rout and recession fears. WSJ - Editorial
The art of the 90-day tariff pause: This chaos has been bad for everyone. Can the master negotiator now turn it around? Karl Rove
Why Trump paused the tariffs: A stock-market swoon, or even a recession, might not frighten him, but the prospect of a 2008-style meltdown apparently still does. Jonathan Chait
Trump backs down on tariffs, again. And it doesn’t look strategic. Advisers said this was the strategy all along. Their claim is undercut by plenty of details — and Trump himself. Aaron Blake
Trump’s tariff pause brings investors relief—but worries remain: Amid market panic, he backs off his most extreme “reciprocal” tariffs. Economist
The art of the delay: Donald Trump pauses some of the pain, but not the chaos. Economist
+ Most countries’ imports face a maximum 10% levy but Trump hits China harder
+ Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the decision to issue a 90-day pause on Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs was driven by President Trump’s “strategy.”
+ Trump says he is raising the tariff charged to China by the US to 125%, effective immediately.
+ Trump stunned markets, announcing he would authorize a 90-day pause on his reciprocal tariff plans for all countries except China and telling reporters he did so because people were getting "yippy" and "afraid."
+ @Itwitius: In other news... Trump's strategy, which was forseeable, has come into focus. He has paused tarrifs on everyone, except China. It was always about China. Slapping the Europeans about on defence is about China. It's about China.
+ @mmcassella: White House says the 10% baseline tariff also applies to Canada & Mexico. It has not said whether that's the effective new rate itself; whether it adds to the 25% fentanyl tariff, making the new rate 35%; or whether it kicks in only if the fentanyl tariff falls away
Nouriel Roubini expects trade war with China to escalate: Nouriel Roubini, chief executive officer of Roubini Macro Associates, expects President Donald Trump's trade war to escalate with China and the market will keep going lower and lower. He says Trump, China's Xi Jinping and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell are all playing a dangerous game of chicken. Bloomberg Surveillance
WSJ: China to raise tariff on US to 84% after Trump’s levies kick in
China retaliated against new tariffs imposed by Trump by announcing it would raise duties on US goods, roiling markets and deepening a trade war between the world’s largest economies. The Chinese government will impose an 84% tariff on all imports from the US starting April 10.
China has readied a trade-war arsenal That takes aim at US companies: Beijing’s strategy to hit back at Trump goes well beyond tariffs, targeting companies who bank on their China ties. WSJ
How China’s record trade surplus helped spark Trump’s tariff war: Beijing’s domination of global trade has led to a schism between the world’s two largest economies — and left many others worried about their industries being crushed by China’s export machine. FT
Tariffs: Why is it so difficult to catch up with "Made in China" products? The Chinese industry initially thrived due to its low-cost labor, but it also dominates many sectors through its responsiveness, innovation capacity and public support it gets. Le Monde
Trump’s ‘reshoring’ ambitions threatened by tariff chaos: Companies have pledged to build factories in the US but are wary of committing long-term investment while trade policy is unclear. FT
An American-made iPhone: Just expensive or completely impossible? Trump’s tariffs aim to bring manufacturing back to the US. So what—besides magic—would it take to make iPhones here? WSJ
Tariffs didn’t drive America’s nineteenth-century growth. They won’t today, either: Innovation, capital, and labor powered US industrial advances, not trade barriers. Brian Albrecht
Trump is ruining his supporters’ dreams: The president won by appealing to strivers, hoping to get rich. His tariffs now threaten that support. Reihan Salam + Charles Fain Lehman
Inside the West Coast Pports at the epicenter of Trump’s trade tariffs: As President Trump’s tariffs against China go into effect, WSJ’s Paul Berger explains what’s next for the largest port complex in the US—the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach—and the economic aftershocks in store for the rest of the country. WSJ
The hopeless search for Trump’s cunning plan: Attempts to read grand strategy into the US president’s doings have run their course. Janan Ganesh
It falls to Congress to unravel Trump’s reckless tariffs: If Republicans are serious, they should join with Democrats to pass a resolution to fix this crisis. Elizabeth Warren
+ A new Quinnipiac poll finds a vast majority of voters (72 percent) think the tariffs will hurt the US economy in the short-term, while a smaller majority (53 percent) think the tariffs will hurt the US economy in the long-term as well.
+ Chaos sown by the president’s trade war means corporate America is planning for a recession.
'Somebody has to pay the cost': Business owners break down tariff drama on social media: A flurry of small business owners has taken to social media platforms to address fans directly about the prohibitive number-crunching Trump’s tariffs have forced them to initiate. FC
FT: Prada cuts Versace purchase price by $200mn after Trump tariffs
Prada deal for Versace at risk of collapsing with market in turmoil: WSJ reports Prada’s tentative deal to acquire Versace from Capri for roughly $1.4 billion could be announced as soon as Thursday if Prada’s namesake family sign off.
Bloomberg: Amazon cancels some inventory orders from China after tariffs
Bloomberg: Nike, Walmart jump on 90-Day tariff pause for key suppliers
How Trump’s tariffs could make AI development more expensive: Time reports that the companies at the forefront of the AI industry are currently spending hundreds of billions of dollars on building new data centers to train AI models. Tariffs will increase the already gargantuan costs of those efforts, analysts say.
Bloomberg: Apple’s iPhone cost could rise 90% if it’s made in US, BofA says
Apple turns to India to help ease Trump’s China tariffs: iPhone maker is facing one of the biggest threats to its business in years. FT
Tariffs put Taiwan on shaky ground with US, may open door for China: WP reports tariff on most goods from Taiwan is the latest in a string of confusing signals from the Trump administration that has Taipei wondering where it stands.
Is this America’s Liz Truss moment? Ms. Truss, Britain’s prime minister for 44 days, was forced out after her radical policies caused a market meltdown. But there are some key differences with President Trump. NYT
LAT: Trump threats do the unthinkable: transform Canadians into flag-waving, US-booing patriots
Trump is losing in a landslide in Canada: The president’s trade war and threats of annexation have united Canadians as never before. Rolling Stone
LAT: Canadian snowbirds love Palm Springs. But Trump is making them say: Sorry! We’re leaving
The battlefield lessons North Korea has learned fighting Ukraine: Combat experience has taught the Russian ally modern warfare tactics that, combined with ideological fervor, make it a significant adversary for the Ukrainians. WSJ
Ukraine counts more than 150 Chinese citizens fighting for Russia: WSJ reports Beijing has denied military involvement in Ukraine after Kyiv said it captured two Chinese citizens.
Europe should buy from Ukraine’s defence industry: And invest in it too. Economist
Iran’s foreign minister said his country is ready to “seal a deal” with America over its nuclear programme but would “never accept coercion.”
Bloomberg: Trump says he’d use military to prevent Iran from nuclear weapon
Macron says France could recognize Palestinian state in June: Le Monde reports the French president stated that at a UN conference in June, co-hosted by France and Saudi Arabia, several countries could finalize a joint move toward mutual recognition of a Palestinian state.
Netherlands expands state-run experiment for legal cannabis sales: FC reports while growing cannabis is still illegal, cannabis shops—known as coffeeshops—in 10 municipalities will be allowed to sell marijuana from 10 licensed producers.
Germany’s centre-right Christian Democratic bloc agreed a coalition deal with the centre-left Social Democrats. Friedrich Merz will become chancellor, having led his Christian Democratic Union to an election victory in February.
Britain’s parties cater to a voter who is, often literally, dead: To understand British politics, one must understand Dead Man. Economist
UK creating ‘murder prediction’ tool to identify people most likely to kill: Algorithms allegedly being used to study data of thousands of people, in project critics say is ‘chilling and dystopian.’ Guardian
CNBC: Europe unveils plan to become ‘AI continent’ with simpler rules, more infrastructure
+ The European Commission on Wednesday outlined its so-called “AI Continent Action Plan,” which aims to “transform Europe’s strong traditional industries and its exceptional talent pool into powerful engines of AI innovation and acceleration.”
+ The bloc said it would create a new AI Act Service Desk to help regional firms comply with its landmark law on artificial intelligence.
+ The EU has faced criticisms from tech leaders that its rules on everything from AI to taxation hinder innovation and make it harder for startups to operate across the region.
Shaping Europe’s leadership in artificial intelligence with the AI continent action plan: The European Union can become a global leader in artificial intelligence (AI) and promote the development and deployment of AI solutions that benefit society and the economy. The Commission has presented the AI continent action plan to turn EU strengths, such as unparalleled talent and strong traditional industries, into AI accelerators. Webpage
Panama hopes Hegseth visit turns page and ends Trump pressure: WSJ reports US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth secured commitments but left some Panamanian officials wondering if they would mollify President Trump, who has repeatedly vowed to “take back” the Panama Canal.
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Pete Hoekstra, the former West Michigan congressman who served as President Donald Trump's ambassador to the Netherlands and as state Republican Party chairman last year, has been formally installed in a new role: US ambassador to Canada.
CNN: Tulsi Gabbard declared her residency in Texas. Then she voted in Hawaii
Trump team to freeze nearly $2 billion at Cornell and Northwestern Universities: WSJ reports the federal government is investigating both schools for alleged civil-rights violations, as part of a rapidly expanding crackdown on elite research universities.
Bloomberg: US government employs AI to analyze worker personnel files
Axios: Trump pushes coal to feed AI power demand
Trump takes aim at low-pressure showers with executive order: WSJ reports the president has signed an executive order rolling back a federal regulation he has blamed for poor water pressure.
NASA chief nominee says he wants to pursue both Mars and Moon missions: WSJ reports Jared Isaacman said he backed NASA plans to keep the International Space Station operating through around 2030, a position different from Elon Musk’s.
Measles outbreak in Texas now tops 500 cases: FC reports the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is working with Texas officials to determine how to assist with the outbreak response.
New wave of Democratic primary challengers bring age problem into focus: Politico reports a spate of challenges against longtime Democratic incumbents suggests some in the party are fed up with its current leadership.
Democratic US senators question Google and Microsoft's AI deals: Reuters reports US Senators Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Ron Wyden of Oregon, the ranking Democrats on the Senate banking and finance committees, respectively, asked Google for details about its partnership with AI startup Anthropic and Microsoft about its tie-up with ChatGPT creator OpenAI, according to the letters.
Big Bank CEOs reckon with their lack of influence on Trump: Tariffs extinguish animal spirits as deals grind to a halt and recession forecasts climb. WSJ
Pronouns in bio? You may not get a response from the White House. NYT reports some Trump administration officials have declined to answer questions from several journalists on the basis of their email signatures.
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
How the Caribbean could turn a plague of seaweed into fuel and fertilizer: Sargassum seaweed is a problem throughout the Caribbean, but scientists have a plan to transform it into a renewable energy source. WP
Lego just opened a $1 billion factory in Vietnam that will run entirely on clean energy: FC reports the Lego factory in the industrial area of Binh Duong, close to Ho Chi Minh City, is the first in Vietnam that aims to run entirely on clean energy.
Kim Sung-joo, the business maverick who built a fashion empire on a backpack: Meet the South Korean entrepreneur who turned MCM Worldwide into a global phenomenon. FT
Europe's first Universal theme park coming to UK: BBC reports the first Universal theme park in Europe will be built in the UK, the government has promised. The attraction is planned for the site of a former brickworks near Bedford and could create an estimated 28,000 jobs before opening in 2031. Universal estimated the 476-acre complex could attract 8.5 million visitors in its first year.
For the first time, artificial intelligence is being used at a nuclear power plant: California’s Diablo Canyon: Some lawmakers think additional guardrails are needed for future uses. For now, the facility will use AI to comply with regulations. The Markup
Bloomberg: OpenAI rival Anthropic to offer $200 monthly Claude chatbot subscription
Some people think AI writing has a tell — the em dash. Writers disagree. Em dashes have been derided as the “ChatGPT hyphen” — a punctuation mark overused by artificial intelligence. That’s not quite true. WP
Americans worry AI is coming for these jobs: A Pew Research survey shows that Americans and experts agree on some jobs they think will be most affected by artificial intelligence. WP
Deepfake porn is a labor issue: AI-generated porn could put hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of Americans out of work. FC
*** Culture ***
How do you rebuild a place like the Palisades? It was an idyllic pocket of Los Angeles where people knew their neighbors — and homes sold for $5 million. The fire ignited competing visions for its future. NYT
Are e-bikes a godsend or the road to perdition? An Amish community is torn. As the battery-powered bikes spread in the 40,000-person Ohio settlement, so does the fear they will undermine family values. WSJ
*** Sport ***
Formula One’s TV rights are up for grabs, but media companies aren’t racing to bid: WSJ reports Liberty Media’s F1 is seeking $150 million to $180 million a year for the fast-growing sport.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Marc Ross Daily | April 9
Marc Ross Daily | April 9
Marc Ross Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for senior executives + comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. I am here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Wednesday.
Here’s today’s Marc Ross Daily:
*** Ross Rant ***
The actual cost of Trump's trade war: How 104% tariffs will strangle American businesses
While you were sleeping, the Trump administration imposed a 104% tariff on Chinese imports at midnight.
This new economic reality doesn't just represent a policy shift—it will create a financial tsunami for American businesses caught in the undertow. When Team Trump grandstands about getting tough on trade, they rarely mention the small business owner who watches their profit margins vanish overnight or the consumer who pays double at checkout.
Consider this straightforward example: A typical wholesale product priced at $50 suddenly carries an additional $52 tariff burden, transforming its landed cost to $102 before accounting for shipping, warehousing, or marketing expenses. This mathematical reality demolishes business models across the country without fanfare or headlines.
It is no wonder Elon Musk called Trump's top trade adviser Peter Navarro a 'moron' and 'dumber than a sack of bricks.'
These overnight dramatic cost increases will destroy the careful economic calculations that power the American economy. For the restaurant equipment supplier in Milwaukee, the furniture store in Buffalo, or the bicycle retailer in Detroit, such tariffs don't punish foreign competitors—they punish American entrepreneurs who built businesses on reliable supply chains and long-term cost expectations.
Many small businesses you frequent and support in your hometown operate on margins thinner than most Americans realize. Your neighborhood hardware store might maintain just 15-20% profit margins, making doubling wholesale costs catastrophic rather than merely challenging. When politicians speak of tariffs as "getting tough," they ignore the impossible choices forced upon small business owners: drastically raise prices, slash quality, lay off workers, or close entirely.
This economic ripple effect will extend far beyond local small businesses. More prominent American manufacturers dependent on Chinese components face similar dilemmas when their supply costs skyrocket. Consider a Midwest factory producing e-bikes with imported motors, which now confronts component costs exceeding the previous retail price of its finished goods. This manufacturing disruption will create economic instability that tariff proponents claim to address.
Team Trump will argue that businesses can source elsewhere, but this oversimplification ignores market realities.
China's manufacturing ecosystem has developed over decades, combining specialized expertise, infrastructure, and economies of scale that are unmatched in most regions. Shifting supply chains requires years, not months, leaving small businesses vulnerable during transition periods when competitors might gain decisive market advantages.
The historical precedent of the US government using tariffs paints a sobering picture. When steel and aluminum tariffs were implemented in 2018, studies from the Federal Reserve found they directly contributed to reduced manufacturing employment and higher consumer prices. Far from strengthening American industry, these tariffs weakened the sectors they intended to protect by increasing input costs across industrial supply chains.
The psychological impact on business planning creates additional damage.
Uncertainty paralyzes investment decisions, expansion plans, and hiring initiatives. Headlines are already highlighting slowing employment and investment decisions, and this is all before this 104% tariff rate has been implemented. When small businesses cannot predict their cost structures six months ahead, they rationally retreat to defensive positions—preserving cash, delaying improvements, and avoiding commitments that might prove fatal under shifting trade policies.
For consumers, these tariffs will manifest as inflation by another name.
The family shopping for summer camp supplies or household necessities will experience price increases indistinguishable from other inflationary pressures. Tariffs effectively function as a regressive tax, hitting working families hardest while offering no corresponding benefit to most American workers.
Team Trump's proposed 104% tariffs don't represent tough negotiating positions or strategic trade policy.
They represent a fundamental misunderstanding of global commerce's functioning in the 21st century.
When a wholesaler watches their $50 product transform into a $102 liability overnight, the damage occurs not in foreign capitals but in American communities where businesses struggle, workers lose jobs, and consumers pay the ultimate price for economic policies that mistake punishment for progress.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
CNN: Tariffs on China set to rise to at least 104% on Wednesday, White House says
Nikkei: Trump awaits tariff call from Beijing as China vows to 'fight to the end'
NYT: Markets slide again in afternoon slump as trade tensions escalate
WP: S&P 500 reaches its lowest level in more than a year as signs of negotiations fail to calm markets
Bloomberg: US stocks tumble again with tariffs set to roil global economy
Why Trump’s global tariff war is America’s Brexit Merryn Somerset Webb
Bloomberg: JPMorgan model shows recession fear in markets spiking up to 79%
Trump’s tariffs and China collide to shock the $115 trillion global economy: Investors the world over are trying to reprice risk in an age of uncertainty inflamed by dueling US and Chinese visions for the future. Bloomberg
Why China thinks it might win a trade war with Trump: The country’s officials vow to “fight to the end.” Economist
China weakens currency as trade war escalates: The Times reports Beijing boosts its export competitiveness and lowers the cost of its goods and services in face of extra Trump tariffs.
Reuters: Trump's port fees on Chinese ships threaten US maritime industry, say executives
CNBC: US Customs starts collecting new tariffs on imports from 86 countries at midnight
CEOs break silence on Trump trade war: Business leaders have avoided voicing concerns about tariffs for weeks, but some are getting vocal. WSJ
Companies stung by tariffs explore lawsuit against Trump: Trade groups are weighing the risk that a lawsuit could prompt Trump to dig in on tariffs. WSJ
Wall Street bursts with anger over tariff ‘stupidity’: Billionaire investors are in an unfamiliar position, watching and cringing as tariffs roll on and the stock market reels. NYT
Trump’s tariffs are already reducing car imports and idling factories: NYT reports a few carmakers have closed factories, laid off workers or shifted production in response to the auto tariffs that took effect last week.
Trump and the mob boss approach to global markets: The US president discovers that it is easier to shake down a law firm than to reshape the international trading system. Gideon Rachman
Trump has no idea what he has unleashed: There is no school of foreign policy realism or trade mercantilism that could explain the US president’s actions. Edward Luce
Trump’s tariffs will damage the world: The trade deficits will remain roughly unchanged — the globe will just end up poorer. Martin Wolf
How global trade could survive Trump’s tariffs: Whether world trade collapses, like it did the 1930s, depends on whether other countries retaliate and Trump negotiates. Greg Ip
The hopeful tariff endgame isn’t so hopeful: Even if Trump backs down he will have succeeded in building uncertainty, which is itself a sort of tariff. Jason Furman
Lutnick’s strategy flummoxes business leaders and White House aides: Some executives have come away from meetings with the commerce secretary confused and exasperated. WSJ
Musk disparages Trump’s trade adviser, exposing rift in president’s inner circle: NYT reports the feud between two of President Trump’s top advisers is playing out as the administration’s new tariffs have caused huge losses across global financial markets.
From Apple to Samsung, Trump's tariffs force supply chains to adapt -- fast: Nikkei reports Asian suppliers to HP, Dell and more reckon with a deeper, longer trade war.
US tariffs threaten almost $2tn of investment pledges by global companies: FT reports businesses with supply chains vulnerable to sweeping duties had been hoping to negotiate concessions from Washington.
In a tiny Gulf town, big cheers for Trump’s tariffs: Imported shrimp overwhelms local shrimpers, who now are hopeful they can come back. WSJ
The stock market will go down 80% ‘when this is over,’ says bearish investor Mark Spitznagel: MW reports Spitznagel still believes we haven’t entered the main event and the recent stock-market plunge is just a ‘trap.’
CNBC: Tech analyst responds to Trump wanting Apple to make iPhones in US: ‘I don’t think that’s a thing’
Reuters: Brazil, Egypt and Singapore among potential winners from tariff onslaught
Singapore warns end of free trade era ‘very hostile’ for small nations: City-state’s foreign minister fears collapse of world trading system after Trump’s tariffs. FT
Canada’s economy is starting to crack under trade-war pressure: WSJ reports expectations of a recession rise along with unemployment as the outlook for consumer demand shrinks.
Wayne Gretzky, former Canadian hero: His countrymen aren’t mourning the loss of his scoring record. Chris Jones
USA-ITA: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will visit the White House on April 17 to meet President Trump.
Spain’s government said it would spend an additional €2bn ($2.2bn) on defence this year as Europe seeks to rearm.
Europe prepares AI charm offensive as industry trembles from tariff shocks: Politico reports draft strategy shows EU wants to woo tech leaders with computing, data, skills — and simpler rules — to run AI.
London falls out of top five wealthiest cities as millionaires leave: The Times reports the UK capital has lost 11,300 dollar millionaires over the past year, a higher proportion than anywhere other than Moscow.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Chinese men fighting for Russia captured in Ukraine: FT reports Ukrainian president demands explanation and accuses Beijing of actively participating in Moscow’s war.
Ukraine thinks it can hold off Russia as long as it needs to: Russia may have Chinese volunteers, but Ukraine has drones. Economist
Russia, Iran + China are strategizing on their response to US efforts to pressure Tehran into talks on its nuclear program, as Russian state media reports today.
North Korea is using a technology called THORChain, which allows crypto swaps without intermediaries, to contravene sanctions and move stolen digital assets between networks.
Hackers intercepted about 103 bank regulators’ emails for more than a year, gaining access to highly sensitive financial information, according to two people familiar with the matter and a draft letter to Congress seen by Bloomberg News.
China’s biotech advances threaten US dominance, warns congressional report: WSJ reports the commission urges the US to invest at least $15 billion in biotech research and other measures.
China criticizes JD Vance for calling its people ‘peasants’: NYT reports a spokesman for China’s foreign ministry denounced the vice president’s comments as “ignorant and impolite.”
While war rages, Congo’s neighbors smuggle out its gold and mineral wealth: Vast country struggles to prevent Rwanda and Uganda from seizing valuable assets. WSJ
Brazil and Argentina need to leave their rivalry on the pitch: South America’s two largest economies have a lot to gain from working together in an uncertain geopolitical world. Juan Pablo Spinetto
At least 44 people were killed and 160 injured after the roof of a nightclub in Santo Domingo, the capital of the Dominican Republic, collapsed on Tuesday morning.
Panama to file criminal complaint over canal concession: FT reports the move comes hours before visit by Pete Hegseth as US raises pressure over Chinese influence on waterway.
Trump administration weighs drone strikes on Mexican cartels: NBC News reports the administration has increased surveillance flights over Mexico as it tries to track the powerful cartels that dominate the fentanyl trade.
Pentagon considering proposal to cut thousands of troops from Europe, officials say: NBC News reports experts warn that the timing of the potential drawdown could alarm NATO allies and embolden Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Meet the warriors trying to teach the West how to fight in the Arctic: Melting sea ice, rising tensions and the relearning of what it will take to master the art of Arctic warfare. FT
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Americans give early Trump foreign policy actions mixed or negative reviews: More Americans see the president favoring Russia too much than striking the right balance. Pew Research Center
A new Navigator Research poll finds that the share of Americans who say the economy is “getting worse” is now higher than it was before Donald Trump won the election in November 2024, and that 58% of Americans disapprove of his tariffs, while only 30% approve.
Trump is replacing the nanny state with a daddy state: The president is using the powers of his office in an aggressive, paternalistic way without precedent. Is an old form of intrusive government being replaced by a new one? Gerald F. Seib
Musk's DOGE using AI to snoop on US federal workers, sources say: Reuters reports while much of Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency remains shrouded in secrecy, the surveillance would mark an extraordinary use of technology to identify expressions of perceived disloyalty in a workforce already upended by widespread firings and severe cost cutting.
The cabinet secretary who wants his cookies freshly baked: The unusual requests made of Interior Secretary Doug Burgum’s staff are raising concerns all the way to the White House. Michael Scherer + Ashley Parker
Bloomberg: Republicans fracture over how much debt to run up for tax cuts
MI-GOV: Rep. John James (R-MI-10) announced Monday that he'll run to be Michigan's next governor in 2026.
NH-SEN: Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) won’t run for the US Senate.
USA Today: ESPN's Stephen A. Smith is thinking about running for president
The Hill: Judge orders Trump White House to restore AP access
Will AI save the news? Artificial intelligence could hollow out the media business—but it also has the power to enhance journalism. Joshua Rothman
Bloomberg has a rocky start with AI summaries: NYT reports the outlet has issued dozens of corrections to AI-generated news summaries since it started using the technology to write them this year.
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
Google DeepMind is urging a renewed focus on long-term AI safety planning even as rising hype and global competition drive the industry to build and deploy faster.
DeepMind slows down research releases to keep competitive edge in AI race: FT reports Google’s AI arm led by Demis Hassabis makes it harder for its researchers to publish studies in major change in approach.
If Anthropic succeeds, a nation of benevolent AI geniuses could be born: The brother goes on vision quests. The sister is a former English major. Together, they defected from OpenAI, started Anthropic, and built (they say) AI’s most upstanding citizen, Claude. Wired
Shopify says no new hires unless AI can’t do the job: WSJ reports employees now required to integrate artificial intelligence into teamwork, Shopify chief says.
CNBC: Fake job seekers are flooding US companies that are hiring for remote positions, tech CEOs say
+ Companies are facing a new threat: Job seekers who aren’t who they say they are, using AI tools to fabricate photo IDs, generate employment histories and provide answers during interviews.
+ The rise of AI-generated profiles means that by 2028 globally 1 in 4 job candidates will be fake, according to research and advisory firm Gartner.
+ Once hired, an impostor can install malware to demand a ransom from a company, or steal its customer data, trade secrets or funds.
Google’s AI Mode can now see and search with images: TC reports AI Mode adds multimodal capabilities and is rolling out to more users in the US.
Amazon debuted a new generative AI model, Nova Sonic, capable of natively processing voice and generating natural-sounding speech. Amazon claims that Sonic’s performance is competitive with frontier voice models from OpenAI and Google on benchmarks measuring speed, speech recognition, and conversational quality.
Reuters: Andreessen Horowitz seeks to raise $20 billion megafund amid global interest in US AI startups
Meta said that it would require Instagram users under 16 to get parental permission to view some live-streamed features.
Tailscale, a security startup based in Toronto, has raised $160 million from investors — a significant haul for the Canadian company. The deal values the startup at about $1.5 billion.
Why managers fear a remote-work future: Like it or not, the way we work has already evolved. Ed Zitron
*** Culture ***
Variety: Tom Cruise’s ‘Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning’ sets Cannes Film Festival premiere
When the Going Was Good by Graydon Carter review: In his memoir the former Vanity Fair editor and man-about-town recalls the golden age of glossy magazines, when sales were in the millions and ‘the budget had no ceiling.’ Guardian
First trailer for Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme launches: The director’s 13th film, an ‘espionage thriller’, stars everyone from Benicio del Toro to Scarlett Johansson, Tom Hanks, Mia Threapleton and Richard Ayoade. Guardian
*** Sport ***
At $378 million, North Carolina’s men’s basketball team has the highest valuation in the sport, according to a new analysis by Ryan Brewer, an associate professor of finance at Indiana University Columbus.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal