Caracal Daily | July 17

Caracal Daily | July 17

Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.

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Always Be Communicating.

Happy Wednesday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

NATO allies agreed to spend $1B to boost the sharing of space-based intelligence.

NATO without a clear strategy on Russia: The support measures for Ukraine announced in Washington on NATO's 75th anniversary highlight the difficulties its 32 member states face in defining their objectives regarding Russia. Le Monde - Editorial

Russia’s vast stocks of Soviet-era weaponry are running out: Economist reports it may have to scale back its offensive in Ukraine.

What is Estonian ex-PM Kallas's EU foreign policy vision? Kaja Kallas, who resigned as Estonia's premier, is tipped to become the EU's top diplomat, She is determined to drive the bloc's Russia policy, but does she lack vision on other issues? DW

New Zealand prime minister vows to name and shame China over spying: Christopher Luxon, in FT interview, says he wants to raise business awareness of the threat. FT

China and Russia extend military cooperation to South China Sea: Nikkei reports activities follow increased drills among Japan, US, and Philippines.

Can Xi keep a lid on China’s mounting social strains? The authorities are increasingly concerned about rises in unemployment, mental illness, and crime linked to the economic slowdown. FT

A pivotal moment for China’s Communist Party: Will Xi Jinping keep ignoring good advice at the party’s third plenum? Economist

A North Korean diplomat managed a rare defection: A Flight Out of Cuba: WSJ reports a North Korean diplomat made a rare escape from the repressive regime as its leader Kim Jong Un intensifies a crackdown on people fleeing the country.

US Accuses former CIA analyst of working for South Korea: Sue Mi Terry, a North Korea expert with the Council on Foreign Relations, was charged with acting as an agent for Seoul after leaving the intelligence agency. NYT

Japan's love of Amazon Prime, YouTube Premium piles pressure on yen: 'Digital deficit' drags down the country's trade balance. Nikkei

The book bag that binds Japanese society: No rule requires Japan’s elementary school students to wear the boxy, bulky backpack known as the randoseru. But for nearly 150 years, nearly all of them have. NYT

Copenhagen tries rewards for good tourist behavior: NYT reports the Danish capital is offering free museum tours, art workshops and more to visitors who take part in climate-friendly initiatives.

It's time for the left to get back to describing the alternative economic system to which it aspires: The economist advises the French left to create a democratic federation capable of organizing deliberation and settling disputes, rather than wallowing in rhetorical radicalism. Thomas Piketty

Gabriel Attal resigned as France’s prime minister, after last week’s snap election delivered a hung parliament.

France's startups concerned over effects of Macron's snap elections: Le Monde reports the French FinTech community, strongly backed by French President Emmanuel Macron, is worried about the changing image of the country and its president among foreign investors.

Russia hit by gigantic forest fires amid official indifference: Le Monde reports in Siberia and the Russian Far East, a million hectares of forest are being ravaged by flames. Since the beginning of the year, fires have destroyed an area the size of Normandy. Regulations and public management are being questioned.

***  US Politics + Elections ***

Vance’s journey from a ‘Never Trump’ guy to Trump’s VP pick WP

JD Vance pick unnerves GOP’s business elite, thrills populists: Ohio senator leads GOP faction sharply breaking with party ideology on free markets, trade and other policies. VP

+ “...the Trump campaign plans to park Vance in Pennsylvania for the next four months, with side trips to Michigan and Wisconsin — using his Rust Belt appeal to try to deny President Biden those Blue Wall states, which he absolutely must win.”

+ “It makes sure that the Blue Wall stays flattened. The sweep across Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin is now solid.” -- Republican strategist Charlie Gerow, quoted by Politico, on Donald Trump’s pick of JD Vance as his running mate.

Private meeting, billionaires, and a G6 Gulfstream: The backstory on how Trump picked Vance: The 39-year-old freshman senator was named as Trump’s running mate on Monday. Politico

Are Republican voters ready for the nerdy radicalness of JD Vance? Donald Trump puts the New Right on the ballot. Politico

Trump’s shooting is a legacy of America’s violent past: Both sides of the political aisle must come together to ensure this anarchy doesn’t spread. Timothy L. O'Brien

The attack on Donald Trump unleashes a flood of misinformation: The left thinks the shooting was just a performance; the right sees an inside job. Will the truth matter? Economist

The 2024 presidential election is not over yet: Donald Trump’s attempted assassination may not shift many votes in a highly polarised nation. Gideon Rachman

Stop pretending you know how this will end: The failed assassination of Donald Trump might not have any lasting effect on the election or politics in general. Derek Thompson

How do you solve a problem like Joe Biden? The uproar over his candidacy reveals dysfunction afflicting both major parties. Economist

DNC aims to push Biden toward nomination next week, despite doubts: NYT reports leaders of the Democratic National Committee are aiming for a process that would formalize the nomination by the end of July, even as Democrats remain fiercely split over his candidacy.

Party revolt against Biden quiets, but re-election looks tougher: WSJ reports no new Democratic lawmakers have called for Biden to exit from the race since assassination attempt on Trump.

Biden circle shrinks as Democrats fear election wipeout: President Biden, increasingly isolated during the biggest political crisis of his presidency, is in a historic standoff with his party. NYT

Who is in Donald Trump’s inner circle? These are his closest advisers: Group tightest to former president has remained small and stable for the 2024 campaign. WSJ

Donald Trump racing ahead in key swing states, Times poll reveals: YouGov survey — undertaken before Saturday’s assassination attempt — puts the former president ahead of Joe Biden in the seven states likely to decide the election. The Times

US voters think they will be better off financially under Donald Trump: FT-Michigan Ross poll offers another boost to ex-president days after he survived attempted assassination. FT

FT: Trump’s donations surge by $400mn to tighten money race with Biden

Trump campaign says the map has expanded: Politico reports Tony Fabrizio, Donald Trump's chief pollster, listed out Minnesota, Virginia, New Jersey and New Mexico as toss ups and brushed off claims by Democrats that North Carolina and Arizona were in play for President Joe Biden.

Elon Musk has said he is committing around $45 million a month to a new pro-Trump super PAC: WSJ reports other backers of America PAC include Palantir Technologies co-founder Joe Lonsdale and the Winklevoss twins.

Bloomberg: Andreessen, Horowitz latest tech VCs to throw support to Trump

Silicon Valley’s tech titans line up to donate to Donald Trump: FT reports America PAC has raised over $8.7mn from backers including Palantir’s Joe Lonsdale, Andreessen Horowitz founders and Sequoia’s Doug Leone.

Trump's second-term agenda: Deportations, trade wars, NATO rethink Reuters

AP: Sen. Bob Menendez guilty of taking bribes in cash and gold and acting as Egypt’s foreign agent

Trump allies draft AI order to launch ‘Manhattan Projects’ for defense: The plan to ‘make America first in AI’ and roll back ‘burdensome regulations’ would favor Silicon Valley investors, who are now flocking to support the former president. WP

California AI bill SB-1047 sparks fierce debate; State senator likens it to ‘Jets vs. Sharks’ feud: A California state bill has emerged as a flashpoint between those who think AI should be regulated to ensure its safety and those who see regulation as potentially stifling innovation. The bill, which heads to its final vote in August, is sparking fiery debate and frantic pushback among leaders from across the AI industry—even from some companies and AI leaders who had previously called for the sector to be regulated. Fortune

Musk says he will move X and SpaceX headquarters out of California: WSJ reports Elon Musk said the final straw was a California law that aims to prevent schools from informing families if their children identify as gay or transgender.

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

After euphoria, fear of bubble grows around generative AI: Some analysts are warning that spending in the generative artificial intelligence sector, particularly on computing capacity, is far outstripping revenues. Le Monde

How Microsoft’s Satya Nadella became tech’s steely eyed AI gambler: Microsoft’s all-in moment on artificial intelligence has been defined by billions in spending and a CEO counting on technology with huge potential and risks. NYT

What messing with chatbots tells us about the future of AI John Herrman

Fujitsu invests in OpenAI rival Cohere, eyeing Japanese language model: Nikkei reports Japan tech group envisions model serving digitization in many industries.

Bloomberg: Apple’s India sales surge 33% to record in shift from China

+ Sales jump shows Apple is succeeding in winning users in India

+ Apple wants to challenge Android’s dominance in the country

Samsung’s ‘chip crisis’: AI ambitions hit by unprecedented worker unrest: FT reports the Korean tech giant risks losing disenchanted engineers to domestic rival SK Hynix.

Sony bets on game-to-film adaptations to unlock IP potential: 'Ghost of Tsushima' to use artistry and choreography to woo not only gamers. Nikkei

Bela Bajaria, Netflix’s chief content officer: ‘If you try to make a show for everyone, you make a show for no one’: She presides over a $17bn budget and is looking for local hits with global potential. FT

How Disney is trying to be as addictive as Netflix: WSJ reports the entertainment giant is pushing its streaming business to reach profitability with tech improvements and a more Netflix-like experience at Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+.

Profits at Goldman Sachs almost tripled year on year during the second quarter. 

Blackrock’s assets under management reached a record high of $10.65trn, and revenues rose by 8% year on year, reaching $4.81bn.

Pork producer Smithfield plans US stock listing: WSJ reports China’s WH Group seeks to list Smithfield’s US and Mexico business after acquiring the enterprise more than a decade ago.

Is this the craziest sneaker you have ever seen? On and Hellen Obiri are taking the running-shoe game to a whole new level. Yes, spray-on shoes are happening. NYT

The Times: Pancreatic cancer breakthrough as scientists spot gene that allows disease to spread

*** Culture ***

How Nicolas Cage stays creative: A 7:30 bedtime and no whiskey: The actor talks about the power of abstinence, Coppola family reunions, and the inspiration behind his serial-killer character in ‘Longlegs.’ WSJ

How Janet Yellen became an unlikely culinary diplomat: The Treasury secretary views food as a way to connect, and her dining decisions have become the subject of global intrigue. NYT

*** Sport ***

Young and the ruthless: Carlos Alcaraz steamrolls Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon: The 21-year-old Spaniard defends his title and wins the fourth major of his career. How far can he take his generational talent? Jason Gay

It set out to revolutionize women’s sports. It turned into an epic fight. Established with a mission to be the ‘fiercest, most inclusive’ team in world soccer, Angel City FC with a star-studded list of investors has instead been beset by infighting and power struggles. WSJ

Kylian Mbappé presented to 80,000 Real Madrid fans: Le Monde reports Mbappé donned the white shirt and gave his first speech at the Santiago-Bernabéu stadium.


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal