Caracal Daily | July 18
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Happy Thursday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
The Times: ‘At least 650,000’ Russians have fled country since war began
Sodexo's discreet operations in Russia: Le Monde reports the French catering and facilities company tried to keep its work on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline site invisible, until its withdrawal from the country in 2022. Now an official partner of the Paris Olympic Games, it says that it hasn't violated any sanctions.
Bloomberg: Trump’s VP pick fuels European anxiety over US backing for Kyiv
+ Vance has opposed all US military support for Ukraine
+ Republicans’ victory would spell transactional foreign policy
Germany to halve military aid for Ukraine despite possible Trump White House: German aid to Ukraine will be cut to 4 billion euros ($4.35 billion) in 2025 from around 8 billion euros in 2024, according to a draft of the 2025 budget seen by Reuters.
UK to boost armed forces given threat from 'deadly quartet': Reuters reports Britain said it would boost its "hollowed out" armed forces to make sure the country was prepared to face what the head of a defence review called a "deadly quartet," comprising China, Iran, North Korea and Russia.
Trump’s VP pick JD Vance called UK ‘Islamist country’: Politico reports the new Labour government figures had made overtures to Donald Trump’s running mate — and have rejected his suggestion.
What JD Vance really thinks about Europe: Donald Trump’s pick for vice president is an Orbán fan who thinks Germany is “idiotic” and the UK may be an “Islamist” state. Politico
AP: New deal establishes a hotline Chinese and Philippine presidents can use to stop clashes at sea
China suspends nuclear talks with the US over Taiwan arms sales: WP reports the Chinese announcement comes as US policy on Taiwan hangs in the balance ahead of the November election.
Trump demands Taiwan pay US for defending it against China: The Times reports the former president accuses the island of not giving Washington ‘anything’ — despite his running-mate saying America should prioritise its support.
Trump invites China to invade Taiwan if he returns to office: Another terrifying tail-risk outcome. Jonathan Chait
+ Trump said that Taiwan “stole” America’s semiconductor industry and “should pay” America for implicitly guaranteeing its security against China. Speaking to Bloomberg, he warned it would be “very, very difficult” for America to come to the island nation’s aid.
US unveils Americas-wide plan to boost semiconductor production: AFP reports Secretary of State Antony Blinken unveiled Wednesday a new plan for countries in the Americas to boost production of semiconductors, which are critical just about everywhere in modern industry and a sector dominated by China.
US floats tougher trade rules to rein in China chip industry: Bloomberg reports the Biden administration, facing pushback to its chip crackdown on China, has told allies that it’s considering using the most severe trade restrictions available if companies such as Tokyo Electron Ltd. and ASML Holding NV continue giving the country access to advanced semiconductor technology.
+ The US is mulling whether to impose a measure called the foreign direct product rule, or FDPR. The rule lets the country impose controls on foreign-made products that use even the tiniest amount of American technology.
Trump-Vance ticket sets stage for years of China arm-twisting: Republicans will focus on America's 'forgotten' blue-collar workers, analysts say. Nikkei
North Korean diplomat defects to South Korea, shares news of political purge: NYT reports Ri Il-kyu, who fled to South Korea late last year, alleged that two North Korean officials who had been assigned to negotiate with the Trump administration had been punished.
Authorities in Thailand said that cyanide killed six foreigners who were staying in a hotel in Bangkok. The suspected poisoner is thought to be among the dead. All six were of Vietnamese ethnicity: four were Vietnamese nationals, while two were American citizens.
King’s Speech and parliamentary pomp mark major power shift in UK: The Times reports during the State Opening of Parliament, King Charles wore a heavy crown, and the theatrics of the constitutional monarchy were on full display.
UK Labour government policy laid out in King's address: Le Monde reports Labour's first plan for government in 15 years includes promises of economic stability, tougher action on irregular immigration and improving relations with Europe soured by Brexit.
Microsoft’s hiring of Inflection AI staff probed by UK regulator: The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) had invited comments over tie-up as part of broader concerns about dealmaking in AI industry. FT
*** US Politics + Elections ***
‘One handsome son-of-a-bitch’: How Donald Trump fell for JD Vance: The making of this MAGA ticket started back in 2022. Politico
How the East Palestine derailment became a showcase for JD Vance’s populism: As a newly elected senator, Vance seized on the 2023 Ohio train disaster, cementing his relationship with Donald Trump. WP
The Trump-Vance ticket is a repudiation of free-market conservatism: The last time he chose a running mate, Donald Trump tried to reassure people with traditionally conservative economic views. Not this time. Politico
‘Scared to death’: GOP security hawks slam Vance selection: By choosing the Ukraine-skeptic Ohio senator, Trump accelerates his party’s rejection of its Reaganite roots. Politico
JD Vance is now the heir apparent to the MAGA movement: What Donald Trump’s vice-presidential pick suggests about how he would govern. Economist
How Peter Thiel and Silicon Valley funded the sudden rise of JD Vance: Donald Trump’s VP pick was a venture capitalist who has been bankrolled in business and politics by billionaire investor. FT
Musk and Thiel put their fortunes and networks to work for Trump and Vance: The two Silicon Valley billionaires have launched a vast fundraising drive to finance the Republican candidate's campaign. Le Monde
Fortune: Donald Trump cozies up to Wall Street and eyes Jamie Dimon for Treasury Secretary
DNC will move forward with virtual roll call to nominate Biden: However, Politico reports that the co-chairs of the DNC’s rules committee said they would delay adopting a start date until next week.
AP: Nearly two-thirds of Democrats want Biden to withdraw, new AP-NORC poll finds
+ Overall, seven in 10 Americans think Biden should drop out, with Democrats only slightly less likely than Republicans and independents to say that he should make way for a new nominee.
This polling memo from BlueLabs Analytics is circulating among Dem party officials still keen to convince Biden to step aside. Read it here.
+ @BGOV: Rep. Adam Schiff called for Joe Biden to quit the presidential contest, reviving Democratic infighting over the troubled reelection campaign.
+ @rachelvscott: Leader Schumer and Leader Jeffries both pushed the party to delay its nominating process, multiple sources tell ABC News. We're told Schumer and Jeffries spoke and both agreed to make the push. w/ @AllisonMPecorin & @lauren_peller
+ @phildstewart: US Senate Democratic Leader Schumer told Biden in a meeting on Saturday it would be better for the country if he ended his reelection bid - ABC News
+ @jonkarl: I am told Chuck Schumer had a blunt one-on-one conversation with Biden Saturday afternoon in Rehoboth. Schumer forcefully made the case that it would be best if Biden bowed out of the race.
Veep debate: A Biden-Harris campaign official says VP Harris has accepted Monday, August 12, as the CBS VP debate date with JD Vance.
The California ties at the top of the presidential ticket: Vice President Kamala Harris’s credentials are already well-known. But Senator JD Vance of Ohio has deep connections to the Golden State, too. WP
Sen. Bob Menendez found guilty in corruption trial: Politico reports he is seeking reelection to the Senate as an independent, although the guilty verdict quickly raises the prospect of an expulsion vote.
Secret Service director summoned to testify before Congress: WSJ reports the subpoena, issued by House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-KY), seeks Cheatle’s testimony at a congressional hearing scheduled for the morning of July 22.
FTC seeking details on Amazon deal with AI startup Adept, source says: Reuters reports the request reflects the FTC's growing concern about how AI deals have been put together and follows a broader review of partnerships between Big Tech and prominent AI startups.
The death of the Chevron doctrine complicates US policymakers’ efforts to regulate AI—but there’s another way Dewey Murdick + Owen J. Daniels
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
Bloomberg: Hyatt in advanced talks to buy Standard Hotels brand
The potential listing of Shein is a test of London’s allure: It would also intensify scrutiny of the fast-fashion giant. Economist
A short history of AI: In the first of six weekly briefs, we ask how AI overcame decades of underdelivering. Economist
Anthropic and Menlo Ventures partner on $100 million AI fund: Bloomberg reports the VC firm’s new fund will back companies using Anthropic products with money, advice, and credits.
‘Godmother of AI’ Fei-Fei Li builds $1bn start-up in 4 months: Stanford computer scientist’s ‘spatial intelligence’ venture wins backing from investors including Andreessen Horowitz. FT
Elon Musk wants his AI bot to deliver the news. It is struggling with the job: WSJ reports Grok posted incorrect information, amplified unverified claims, and failed to identify sarcasm as details of the Trump shooting unfolded.
Don’t blame AI for emissions: Earlier this month, Google disclosed that carbon emissions from its data centers rose by 13% in 2023, which the company blamed on the “AI transition.” But at Fortune’s Brainstorm Tech conference, Google chief scientist Jeff Dean said that people are unfairly blaming the new technology, noting that AI makes up only a small part of data center usage.
*** Culture ***
Variety: ‘The Bear’ breaks Emmy record for comedy series with 23 nominations
+ The second season of the hit FX series, which aired in June 2023, led the tally for comedy series with 23 nominations, including outstanding comedy series. It now surpasses the 22-nomination Emmy record held by NBC’s “30 Rock” since 2009. The all-time series record of 32 nominations, held by HBO’s “Game of Thrones” since 2016, remains firmly in place.
‘I find them quite magical’: the UK’s obsession with weather apps: Queen Camilla is apparently fixated with the forecast on her phone, behind which lies not just granular details but surprisingly lucrative businesses. Guardian
Tiny Japanese startup is turning ‘Her’ AI dating into reality Bloomberg
*** Sport ***
WP: Paris mayor swims in the Seine, declares it clean for the Olympics
NY Mag: France Won’t Let Its Athletes Wear Hijabs at the Olympics
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
