Caracal Daily | July 19

Caracal Daily | July 19

Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.

Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.

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Happy Friday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Ross Rant ***

Role reversal: UK Presidential, US Parliamentary?

In recent years, we've observed an intriguing shift in electoral dynamics: UK elections are increasingly adopting a Presidential-style approach, while US elections are leaning towards a Parliamentary-style framework. 

This evolution reflects broader changes in political strategy and voter engagement.

In the UK, the focus on party leaders has intensified, with campaigns often revolving around the personalities and policies of these figures, much like in the US Presidential elections. This shift reshapes how political messages are crafted and delivered, emphasizing individual leadership over party ideology.

Conversely, the US is seeing a rise in the importance of party cohesion and legislative agendas akin to Parliamentary systems. 

This trend highlights the growing significance of collective, let's get this stuff done party platforms and Congress's role in shaping policy rather than solely focusing on the President.

The UK-US shift will be complete if Biden departs the presidential election with only 109 days to go.

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

China’s leaders point to economic threats but show no sign of changing tack: Xi Jinping and top officials offer rare nod to risks, without pointing to major overhauls. WSJ

China’s ruling party sets out its vision of economic reform: The party sees no need for a decisive break with the past. Economist

Xi Jinping is trying to love-bomb China’s entrepreneurs: It will take a lot more to win them back. Economist

State TV set ablaze, death toll rises as student protests roil Bangladesh: AFP reports protesters set the headquarters of Bangladesh’s main state broadcaster ablaze on Thursday after riot police retreated there after firing rubber bullets. The fire comes as the death toll rose to at least 39 in clashes between police and student protesters demanding civil service hiring reforms. 

WP: New UK prime minister seeks reset with Europe after years of squabbling

Tories can’t agree how or when to hold leadership contest: The Times reports potential candidates are wary of showing their hands until rules are clear with party divided over whether to use conference as a ‘beauty contest.’

France’s National Assembly elects Macron’s choice as its head: FT reports re-election of Yaël Braun-Pivet as assembly president increases chances of a centrist government.

Reelected European Commission President von der Leyen keeps Act II of the Green Pact to a bare minimum: Le Monde reports that, reappointed for a second term on Thursday, the European Commission President focused on defending the industrial aspect of the Green Deal.

Fortune: Anti-tourist backlash in Europe causes cruise ships to change course

Globe + Mail: Foreign Affairs Minister Joly visits China for first high-level talks in years

Elbridge Colby, former US deputy secretary of defense: 'We don't want to be the world's policeman': Elbridge Colby, a Republican specialist in foreign affairs, told Le Monde that Europe needs to 'step up' when it comes to autonomy and defense. Le Monde

Nuclear must be part of the solution: Reinforcing the bargain that strengthens security while expanding peaceful use. Rafael Mariano Grossi

***  US Politics + Elections ***

Biden trails in every swing state: A new series of Emerson College polls shows Donald Trump leading Joe Biden in every swing state:

AZ: Trump 46%, Biden 36%

GA: Trump 44%, Biden 39%

MI: Trump 43%, Biden 40%

NV: Trump 43%, Biden 40%

NC: Trump 47%, Biden 38%

PA: Trump 46%, Biden 40%

WI: Trump 46%, Biden 43%

Virginia is in play: A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of Virginia voters finds 45% support former President Donald Trump and 43% support President Biden in a 2024 election.

How Trump dominated his own party on a new GOP platform: Donald Trump and his team displayed a ruthless efficiency in the process of making a platform, confiscating delegates’ cellphones and stifling dissent and even debate. NYT

How Trump won back complete control of the GOP: Some in the Republican Party wanted to move on after his 2020 loss. The former president wouldn’t let that happen. WSJ

What makes Donald Trump irresistible: Why the MAGA faithful across America still believe. FT

Where would Donald Trump and JD Vance take America? The anti-globalist MAGA enthusiast is more consequential than the average veep pick. Economist

The GOP still doesn’t know what it would do with power: Neither Project 2025 nor JD Vance is a sign that Trump would accomplish more than he did last time. Ramesh Ponnuru

NYT: Tucker Carlson, ousted by Fox, roars into Milwaukee as a top Trump ally

Trump’s ‘divine intervention’ may be just a talking point: The observations from the former president and some of his ardent followers after his narrow escape from a shooter’s bullet smack of convenient politics. Timothy L. O'Brien

JD Vance shows the future of Christianity: The conservative Catholicism of Donald Trump’s running-mate is a countercultural form of dissent. James Marriott

The seven thinkers and groups that have shaped JD Vance’s unusual world view: Post-liberals, “crunchy cons” and monarchists. Politico

JD Vance wants to make Silicon Valley great again: His desire to curb Big Tech dominance won’t have as much impact as his animosity toward tech’s social justice movements. Parmy Olson

Why Silicon Valley elites are turning MAGA John Herrman

Silicon Valley support of Trump cements a political shift already well underway WP

Fortune: Andreessen Horowitz founders endorse Trump: ‘The future of our business…is literally at stake’

Tech bros love JD Vance. Many CEOs are scared stiff: Donald Trump’s running-mate has a deep-rooted resentment of big business. Economist

What would a Trump-Vance economic agenda look like? Maganomics promises a radical break from Republican laissez-faire dogma. FT

Trumponomics would not be as bad as most expect: Opposition would come from all angles. Economist

Trump on taxes, tariffs, Jerome Powell and more: Bloomberg Businessweek sat down with the ex-president at Mar-a-Lago for an exclusive interview. Bloomberg

Top Democrats turn screws on Biden: WSJ reports Democratic leaders delay procedural vote to seal his nomination before the August convention; lawmakers fear steep down-ballot losses.

FT: Top Democratic donors and operatives say Biden is near exit

WSJ: Top Democrats prepare for campaign without Biden

The Times: Obama ‘says Biden must seriously consider stepping down’

Pelosi, long fixated on winning, is in no mood to lose with Biden: NYT reports the former speaker has been marshaling her knowledge of the political map, polling data and fund-raising information to press her case with President Biden that his re-election is in serious doubt.

WP: Pelosi has told House Democrats that Biden may soon be persuaded to exit race

+ The former House speaker has stepped up her behind-the-scenes role in working to persuade the president to bow out of campaign

Gunman had searched online for information about Trump and Biden: WP reports Thomas Matthew Crooks also had photos of Attorney General Merrick Garland and a member of the British royal family saved on his phone, two people familiar with the probe said.

The Times: Trump gunman ‘hid rifle near rally ground’ before attack

Schiff and other House members demand answers on how Google AI Overview works: Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) doubled down on his efforts to expose how artificial intelligence programs work, demanding detailed information from Google about the back end of its experimental AI Overview search results feature. SFC

How Elon Musk went red against California blue: As he embraced the Republican Party this week, the billionaire rejected the birthplace of Tesla and SpaceX. WSJ

A one-man Telemundo on TikTok: Carlos Espina is among a new kind of social media personalities whom politicians, especially those in the Biden White House, view as modern-day broadcasters. NYT

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

Astronomers have found a cave on the moon: Economist reports such structures could serve as habitats for future astronauts.

VF Corp will sell Supreme to EssilorLuxottica for $1.5 billion.

Albums are too damn long: Spotify and TikTok are driving your favorite artists to release never-ending albums. BI

Netflix keeps streaming crown with continued subscriber, revenue growth: WSJ reports the streaming giant expects slower subscriber additions this quarter; lifts revenue forecast for the year.

Goldman Sachs opens up an investment strategy once reserved for the wealthy: WSJ reports the bank looks to boost fee revenue by offering new investment portfolios to customers of robo-adviser Betterment.

Ford announced Thursday it would invest $3 billion to expand production of its "Super Duty" pickup trucks at a Canadian factory, at which it has previously pushed back plans for electric vehicles.

Bloomberg: OpenAI releases GPT-4o Mini, a cheaper version of flagship AI model

ChatGPT maker OpenAI goes smaller and cheaper with new AI tech: WSJ reports the company is releasing GPT-4o mini, part of an industry shift toward more efficient artificial-intelligence models.

OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic try building AI that can reason: As with so much of AI, the concept of reasoning is difficult to define and measure. Bloomberg

AI adoption in ad industry needs ‘non-optional mandates’, says Interpublic CEO Philippe Krakowsky Fortune

New technologies like AI let companies learn more about their customers—while raising privacy questions Fortune

Meta AI paused in Brazil: Disquiet over Meta’s exploiting user data to train its AI is spreading. After pausing its AI rollout in Europe, Meta has done the same in Brazil. Brazil’s National Data Protection Authority effectively blocked Meta’s AI-training practices earlier this month after the company tried to claim the right to train its AI with its users’ Instagram and Facebook data.

Samsung buys AI firm: Reuters reports that Samsung is buying a British AI startup called Oxford Semantic Technologies for an undisclosed amount. The company makes a “rules-based reasoning engine” that aims to provide truth transparently. 

AI’s insatiable need for energy is straining global power grids Bloomberg

OpenAI and Broadcom in talks about developing new AI chip: FT reports ChatGPT maker seeks ways to expand capacity as it aims to stay ahead of its rivals.

Reuters: TSMC rides AI demand to raise revenue forecast, says no to US joint venture

Bloomberg: More than half of TSMC’s sales are now high-end chips like AI

+ HPC division houses AI accelerators, servers and MacBook chips

+ TSMC’s key sales driver has shifted from smartphones to AI

*** Culture ***

American towns are rebelling against megamansions: As house sizes are exploding, communities across the country are debating limits. ‘Really shocking.’ WSJ

Trekking across Switzerland, guided by locals’ hand-drawn maps: Nostalgic for a time before ubiquitous connectivity, a writer ditched his phone and relied instead on serendipity — and maps made by people he met along the way. NYT

AP: The Grateful Dead and Francis Ford Coppola are among the newest Kennedy Center Honors recipients

+ Director Francis Ford Coppola and the Grateful Dead will be honored for lifetime achievement in the arts, along with jazz trumpeter Arturo Sandoval, blues legend Bonnie Raitt and the legendary Harlem theater The Apollo, which has launched generations of Black artists.

RIP: Bob Newhart

*** Sport ***

CBS Sports announces multi-year, multi-platform rights agreement with English Football League for widest distribution of EFL matches ever in the US. EFL Championship, League One, League Two, Carabao Cup and Bristol Street Motors Trophy matches will air on Paramount+, CBS Sports Network and CBS Sports Golazo Network through the 2027/28 season.

The Tour de France heads for a once-in-a-lifetime Riviera curtain call: WSJ reports with Paris preparing for the Summer Olympics, the world’s most famous bike race wraps up on the Côte d’Azur—which much of the peloton calls home.

AFP: Ohtani's Dodgers to open 2025 MLB season in Japan


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal