Caracal Daily | October 28

Caracal Daily | October 28

Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.

Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.

Always Be Communicating.

Happy Monday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

Japan election: Ruling coalition loses majority for first time since 2009: The Times reprts the gamble by Shigeru Ishiba, the country’s new prime minister, to call an early vote backfired badly and he will now be forced to lead a minority government.

Japan’s PM vows to stay on after election debacle: FT reports Shigeru Ishiba has presided over a result that threatens to plunge country’s politics into paralysis.

Voters deliver a historic rebuke to Japan’s ruling coalition: Economist reports that the Liberal Democratic Party may still hang on to power.

A seismic election sends Asia’s most stable democracy into chaos: Deep-seated grievance among Japanese voters has put the Liberal Democrats, longstanding custodians of the status quo, on notice. NYT

Japan is remarkably open to AI, but slow to make use of it: The land of Doraemon embraces the new technology in theory but not in practice. Economist

Bloomberg: Apple blocked from selling iPhone 16 models in Indonesia

+ Indonesia says Apple hasn’t fulfilled investment pledges

+ Rivals Samsung, Xiaomi have set up local factories to comply

Chinese economic slowdown looks even worse across some provinces: Bloomberg reports Chinese provinces that account for about a third of the economy are enduring a worse year than the nation as a whole, succumbing to a slowdown that likely swayed the government in moving ahead with a range of stimulus measures last month.

As ties with the US worsen, China asks: Who’s the new Kissinger? Influential voices in China are openly discussing who could act as a trusted bridge between Beijing and Washington, regardless of who wins the presidency. WP

How a Trump victory would threaten Tesla’s success in China: Elon Musk’s embrace of the former president complicates things in a vital market for the US EV maker. WSJ

Australia, the land of iron ore exports, faces a green reckoning: As Chinese demand drops and the world cleans up its steel industry, Australia faces a race to switch from exporting ore to manufacturing green iron. WP

Australian businesses complain they are ‘public enemy number one’: Labor government adopts increasingly populist position ahead of general election due in May. FT

The truth behind Chinese whispers that painted Wallis Simpson as a harlot: High society rumors or an establishment plot? A book delves into scandalous claims that the woman who’d caught the future Edward VIII’s eye had embarked on a debauched year in China. The Times

Free electricity, anyone? Britain tries new tricks to green its grid. A utility sends phone alerts when wind power is cheap. A builder sells “zero bill” houses. They’re among several experiments to redefine how people value electricity. NYT

Newspapers must be paid if AI uses their archive, Keir Starmer says: The prime minister vows to defend the media but tech firms warn Britain will be left behind unless companies can use copyrighted work to train their models. The Times

Man who used AI to create child abuse images jailed for 18 years in UK: FT reports a judge rules in landmark case involving deepfake sexual abuse material.

NATO says North Korean troops in Russia threaten European security: FT reports Pyongyang’s involvement marks ‘dangerous expansion’ of Moscow’s war in Ukraine, says Mark Rutte.

Russia ‘withholding’ vital climate data in the Arctic, warns NATO: FT reports official says accurate modeling of global warming is being hit.

Ukraine resorts to shaking down nightlife spots for recruits as troop numbers fall: WSJ reports manpower is the decisive factor in a drawn-out war of attrition, with Russia’s population four times the size of Ukraine’s.

How Soviet farm planning gave Ukrainian troops vital battlefield real estate: WP reports on the Ukrainian steppe, where it is nearly impossible to hide from drone surveillance, windbreaks are fought over by Russian and Ukrainian troops.

Another domino falls to Vladimir Putin after Georgia’s tense election: The ruling party’s win is celebrated in Moscow, but unrest is possible. Economist

How a Mumbai drugmaker is helping Putin get Nvidia AI chips: Trade-tracking data show that the Indian firm is selling top-end Dell servers optimized for artificial intelligence to Russia. Bloomberg

Why the Bauhaus is again under siege from the German hard-right: The Times reports the attacks from the Alternative for Germany party mirror those from nearly a century ago when the Nazi party tried to dismantle the influential design school.

Meloni v. judges: In Italy, a fight over migration rekindles old hostilities: Conservatives have often accused the Italian courts of overreach. The prime minister’s plan to outsource asylum requests is now part of that longstanding battle. NYT

Israel’s limited missile strike on Iran may be the start of a wider assault: Whatever Iran’s response to the attack, it carries risks for the regime. Economist

Israeli strikes on Iran expose gap in prowess between two arch foes: WSJ reports recent conflict pits Iran and Israel in a direct, long-distance war—and Israel has the upper hand.

US and Israeli spy chiefs meet for Gaza cease-fire talks: NYT reports the director of the CIA was in Qatar for preliminary talks with Israeli officials aimed at reviving cease-fire negotiations with Hamas.

The Middle East drug fueling war, crime, and all-night parties: Captagon is bringing big profits to Syria’s Assad regime and Hezbollah—and it’s triggering a health crisis. WSJ

Another African war looms: An agreement two years ago halted a bloody conflict in Ethiopia but sowed the seeds of new ones. Economist

China’s $3.6bn megaport in  Peru rings alarm bells in Washington: China also controls the companies that between them provide all the electricity to Lima, which is home to a third of the country’s population. The Times

Argentina ready to boost flights to Falklands, says foreign minister: Diana Mondino says airlines will have to decide ‘frequency’ in sign of warmer relations with the UK over the islands. FT

Why the BRICS de-dollarization dream remains a fantasy Bloomberg

Meg Whitman’s mission in Africa: American tech over Chinese: As ambassador to Kenya, the former eBay and HP CEO has made a priority of counterbalancing Chinese influence on the continent. Bloomberg

***  US Politics + Elections ***

Trump at the Garden: A closing carnival of grievances, misogyny, and racism: NYT reports the inflammatory rally was a capstone for an increasingly aggrieved campaign for Donald Trump, whose rhetoric has grown darker and more menacing.

Donald Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally overshadowed by racism accusations: FT reports Republican lays out dark closing argument in Democratic city where he made his fortune but was also convicted.

What election? Trump just wants to play Madison Square Garden: The Republican candidate was there to make his closing arguments to the American people — but first he wanted to talk about filling New York’s most famous arena. Will Pavia

+ Donald Trump told the rally that the United States had become “an occupied country” due to illegal immigration and that he would fix it with “the largest deportation program in American history”

+ One speaker called Puerto Rico an “island of garbage,” another labeled Kamala Harris “the Antichrist”

+ Trump promised the “largest deportation program in American history”

Economist: Donald Trump returns to New York for a bombastic closing pitch

Crazy is beginning to sound like an understatement Gail Collins + Bret Stephens

Some billionaires, CEOs hedge bets as Trump vows retribution: WP reports with the race tight, some business elites are toning down past criticism of the former president.

Washington Post in turmoil after opting against 2024 presidential endorsement: WP reports the Bezos-owned newspaper is facing criticism that the move was motivated by concern of retribution from Trump.

America’s glorious economy should help Kamala Harris: Voters are starting to notice the good news just in time for the election. Economist

Women will decide America’s future: Where female voters go, the result of the US presidential election follows. Rana Foroohar

America is having a panic attack over the election: Voters see permanent damage to the country if their candidate loses; ‘There are not enough gummies I can take to soothe the angst!’ Molly Ball

How would Trump and Harris supporters handle defeat? Here’s what they say. Supporters of Trump and Harris weigh in on how they would handle an election loss, with some expressing fears over the country’s direction. WP

Could the Trump-Musk bromance force a NASA pivot to Mars? WP reports the tightening relationship between Donald Trump and Space X CEO Elon Musk has caught the attention of space policy analysts wondering about US aspirations to get to Mars.

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

The print magazine revival of 2024: More publishers are discovering that magazines are now a luxury good. Bloomberg

Every company needs to put on a show like Apple: Steve Jobs’s annual product launches can be a surprisingly effective management tool—whether you’re in the business of tech or tacos. Ben Cohen

Talk of a 7-Eleven takeover has Japan worried about the rice balls: A Canadian company is offering $47 billion, but some fans of the Japanese-owned convenience chain question whether the bidder understands local tastes. WSJ

A new space hub thrives in Southern California Bloomberg

Boeing will reportedly launch a plan to raise more than $15bn as soon as Monday.

Bloomberg: Boeing launches $19 billion share sale to thwart downgrade

+ Company sells 90 million common, $5 billion depositary shares

+ Fundraiasing could approach $22 billion with overallotments

New wearable devices target the brain to bring better sleep: They promise to speed up the onset of slumber, improve its quality and even transition travelers to a different time zone before they land at their destination. WSJ

FT: Volkswagen plans to close at least 3 German plants and cut thousands of jobs

Bloomberg: VW eyes closing three German factories in cost-cutting push

+ Automaker also plans pay cuts at VW brand, labor leader says

+ Move shows extent of crisis at Europe’s biggest carmaker

Mercedes and Porsche’s fight with China is coming close to home: After making waves with cheap EVs, Chinese carmakers are targeting the luxury segment in Europe. Bloomberg

Elon Musk’s dream of a drive-in movie diner with EV charging is taking shape: The automaker is tapping into car culture nostalgia for a new type of EV charging station. Bloomberg

Shares at Philips fell by more than 15% after the Dutch technology firm reduced its sales forecast for 2024. It said that “a significant deterioration” in demand from China was dampening sales.

Our robot stories haven’t prepared us for AI Ross Douthat

BI: James Cameron says the reality of artificial general intelligence is 'scarier' than the fiction of it

AP: Researchers say an AI-powered transcription tool used in hospitals invents things no one ever said

Many older Americans don’t trust AI-generated health information: The report’s authors wrote that health literacy is important to help adults make decisions about their health. WP

Reuters: Google to develop AI that takes over computers, The Information reports

Meet Joelle Pineau: Shaping AI as the world grapples with its potential: Meta’s head of research into the technology explains the career path that led to weighing questions on society’s future. FT

Why Apple’s AI success hinges on the iPhone: Big tech rivals can distribute AI widely through their services, while Apple’s hardware-centric business needs its devices as the touchpoint. WSJ

How Intel got left behind in the AI chip boom: Intel was for decades Silicon Valley’s dominant chip company. But missed opportunities and poor execution left it on the sidelines in tech’s latest gold rush. NYT

*** Culture ***

Is saké the new Prosecco? From cocktails to dinner parties, the Japanese drink is becoming increasingly popular. The Times

The world’s best bar is hidden behind an unmarked door in Mexico City: The insider favorite Handshake Speakeasy was named No. 1 by the World’s 50 Best Bars. Bloomberg

*** Sport ***

The Times: Erik ten Hag sacked as Manchester United manager

College Football needs to learn a lesson from MLB: Collective bargaining could fix the sport’s problems. Bloomberg

The Tom Brady broadcasting experience feels kind of pointless: Brady has shown promise as a color commentator, but the restrictions that come with his ownership stake in the Las Vegas Raiders will keep him from being great in the booth. And what’s Brady worth without greatness? Ringer

Hello ‘darkness’: A brutal season for Aaron Rodgers and the Jets keeps getting worse Jason Gay

On a hurricane-ravaged Appalachian Trail, vast damage and uncertainty: Repairs to the worst-hit sections of the famed trail are expected to be extraordinarily expensive and require substantial expertise. Months of work lie ahead. WP


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal