Caracal Daily | October 29

Caracal Daily | October 29

Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.

Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.

Always Be Communicating.

Happy Tuesday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

Reuters: No new limits on Ukraine's use of US weapons if N. Korea enters fight, Pentagon says

North Korean troops are now in Kursk to help Russia, NATO confirms: Politico reports Pyongyang alarms the West by seeking to assist Vladimir Putin in retaking territory from Ukraine.

North Korean troops have deployed to Russia’s Kursk region, NATO says: WP reports the United States is increasingly concerned that North Korean troops soon will be in combat in the Ukraine war, the Pentagon said.

Ukraine braces for Russians to assault with North Korean troops: NYT reports several thousand North Korean soldiers have arrived in Russia’s western Kursk region, where they are expected to support Moscow’s efforts to dislodge invading Ukrainian forces.

The west underestimates North Korea at its peril: Kim Jong Un’s intervention in the Ukraine war reflects a dangerous turn in Pyongyang’s approach to the world. Gideon Rachman

US says North Korea has sent 10,000 troops to Russia: Politico reports some of those soldiers are in training and some are already headed toward the fight along the border with Ukraine.

North Korean soldiers to face drones, doubts in Ukraine war debut: Nikkei reports analysts question 'elite' troops' readiness for battle under Russian command. 

+ It is the latest sign of how the war in Ukraine is roiling global security well beyond Europe’s borders. 

+ Russia is now suffering a staggering 1,200 casualties per day in the war, according to the latest US figures. 

+ The UK has sanctioned 3 Russian agencies and 3 senior figures who are attempting to undermine and destabilize Ukraine and its democracy.

Russia has suffered 600,000 casualties in Ukraine war, says NATO: The Times reports that the secretary-general says North Korean troops are fighting for Moscow in Kursk, as Putin seeks to stave off general mobilization amid a shortage of soldiers.

A Russian influence and hacking group is behind recent efforts to target and compromise Ukrainian military recruits, and undermine support for recruitment efforts, according to a report from Google’s Threat Intelligence Group.

Georgian president joins protests over election ‘rigged by Russia’: The Times reports Salome Zourabichvili addressed demonstrators in Tbilisi in dramatic scenes after Bidzina Ivanishvili was accused of taking part in a Kremlin plot to retain power.

Thursday: Russia is planning to launch an unknown military payload into space.

The leaders of India and Spain launch India’s first private military aircraft plant: AP reports Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Spanish counterpart Pedro Sanchez inaugurated India’s first private military aircraft plant on Monday, boosting New Delhi’s ambitions of growing local manufacturing in its defense and aerospace industries.

Trump’s unmatched China weakness Derek Scissors

US  finalizes China tech investment ban targeting AI, chips: Restrictions potentially put China investors with US residency or citizenship in crossfire. Nikkei

China tightens its hold on minerals needed to make computer chips: NYT reports already the dominant producer of rare minerals, Beijing is using export restrictions and its power over state-owned companies to further control access.

China sends warships around Taiwan after US arms sale: The Times reports Beijing deployed jets, drones and warships for a third set of exercises this month after the island was cleared to buy $2bn of missile and radar systems. 

Xi’s grandiose plan for the Asia-Pacific is not working. Rudd knows why: China’s foreign policy, particularly in this region, often appears contradictory. But according to the former PM, it’s part of a broader but so far unsuccessful strategy. Peter Hartcher

Singapore's quiet rise in the global 'deep tech' race: US-China rivalry spurs investment in Asia's top startup ecosystem. Nikkei

Japan PM Ishiba's 'disastrous' election loss shocks US: Political chaos in Japan may derail defense reforms at critical time, officials worry. Nikkei

The Japanese PM's electoral defeat was tied to rising inflation, symbolized by ramen: Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba suffered a parliamentary election defeat on October 27, partly due to rising prices, especially of ramen, after three decades of deflation. Philippe Escande

The global market for low-carbon hydrogen and its derivatives is developing as early adopters sign offtake agreements and suppliers deliver shipments. This has piqued the interest of investors, as offtake agreements and government support indicate an opportunity for growth. Yet challenges remain for this industry: Specifically, the cost of electrolyzers has risen 20%-45% since 2021, according to an analysis from S&P Global Commodity Insights.

+ In the US, “blue hydrogen,” produced using steam methane reforming with carbon capture and storage, is attracting more investor interest than “green hydrogen,” produced via electrolysis - It is also cheaper to manufacture.

+ Blue hydrogen has not received the same level of government support in Europe. Shell put the Aukra low-carbon hydrogen project in Norway on hold due to a lack of demand for blue hydrogen. 

Macron visits Morocco for a diplomatic reset: Le Monde reports amid a tense geopolitical climate, marked by Macron's July approval of Morocco's autonomy plan for the disputed Western Sahara and migration rows between Paris and Rabat, Macron's visit serves to mend diplomatic ties, despite tensions with Algeria.

The World’s top 25 companies by market cap Visual Capitalist

+ There are only seven trillion-dollar companies in the world, six of which are American

***  US Politics + Elections ***

SMH: Trump campaign in damage control over racist rally jokes, Biden votes ahead of poll

CNN: Trump’s offensive Madison Square Garden rally triggers fears of an overshadowed message and fallout with Puerto Rican voters

Trump team fears damage from racist rally remarks: NYT reports Donald Trump’s campaign issued a rare statement distancing itself from a comedian’s offensive joke about Puerto Rico at Trump’s rally on Sunday.

Democrats spotlight racist Puerto Rico insult at Trump rally amid battle for Latino voters: WP reports the party moved quickly Monday to call attention to the fallout from Donald Trump’s event at Madison Square Garden.

Trump repeatedly refers to CNN’s Anderson Cooper as ‘Allison’: NYT reports the former president, who often uses disparaging nicknames for people he dislikes, has referred to the host by a woman’s name on at least three occasions since Friday.

Trump wants you to accept all of this as normal: The former president is psychologically preparing Americans for an assault on the electoral system. Anne Applebaum

Trump hints at ‘little secret’ with House Republicans, setting off a panic: NYT reports the former president seemed to delight in fueling speculation about what he is cooking up with House Republicans, prompting Democrats to worry about election fraud. Speaker Mike Johnson refused to explain.

The comically terrible rollout of Latter-day Saints for Trump: The koozies and coffee mugs were a mistake. McKay Coppins

Musk repeatedly raises the idea that Harris, or he, could be assassinated: NYT reports the billionaire and his PAC have used foreboding language about the vice president in their support of former President Donald Trump.

Harris aides quietly grow more bullish on defeating Trump: NYT reports while still cautious, allies of Kamala Harris believe that their ground game, abortion rights appeals, and casting of Donald Trump as a fascist are working. 

Harris campaign distances itself from Biden in the crucial final days: NYT reports joint events with an unpopular incumbent would “only hurt” the vice president at this stage of the campaign, as one of her advisers put it. But the president does not want to be sidelined.

Bloomberg, after months of pressure, donates $50 million to help Harris: NYT reports the former mayor of New York City is known for making political donations late in the campaign season. Democrats had been lobbying him to spend more.

Over 200,000 subscribers flee 'Washington Post' after Bezos blocks Harris endorsement: NPR reports The Washington Post has been rocked by a tidal wave of cancellations from digital subscribers and a series of resignations from columnists, as the paper grapples with the fallout of owner Jeff Bezos’s decision to block an endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris for president.

+ @BenMullin: NEW: Amazon founder Jeff Bezos makes argument against newspaper endorsements: “Ending them is a principled decision, and it’s the right one.”

Jon Stewart extends ‘Daily Show’ run through 2025: NYT reports Stewart, who returned to the show in February as a host on Monday nights, originally planned to work through the presidential election.

Adam Schiff, not yet a Senator, deploys to bolster potential future colleagues: NYT reports with his election in California all but assured, the prominent Donald Trump antagonist is spending the final days of the race trying to help Democrats in the battlegrounds over the finish line.

Gov. Gavin Newsom wants to shower Hollywood with a massive $3.75 billion tax credit. If approved by state lawmakers, the subsidy would be a welcome relief for an LA film scene that has seen a mass exodus of movie and TV crews searching for cheaper pastures.

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

‘I woke up and found myself famous’: Rory Sutherland on his TikTok success: Advertising executive, 58, shares old-school tricks of the marketing trade, enjoyed by millions of viewers. Guardian

China’s Luckin Coffee plans US launch in comeback from fraud scandal: FT reports expansion in Starbucks home market comes five years after the chain was delisted from NASDAQ and fined.

For first time in 87 years, Volkswagen may close 3 plants in Germany: NYT reports the automaker’s top employee representative told workers that management planned to shutter the factories to cut costs amid slumping sales.

Waymo raises $5.6 billion from outside investors: NYT reports Alphabet’s driverless car unit now has vehicles operating in San Francisco, Phoenix and Los Angeles.

Boeing may consider selling its space business.

Palmer Luckey on the Pentagon’s future of mixed reality: What a floundering military goggle project reveals about where our experiences with the technology are headed next, according to the founder of Oculus. MIT TR

Fortune: Nvidia’s billionaire CEO says AI can do a lot of things—except take his job

'AI will acquire a human form,' top Nvidia executive tells Nikkei forum: Speaking at the same event, Hyundai CEO Chang says hydrogen to be a key focus. Nikkei

What if Microsoft let OpenAI go free? It may not be as crazy as it sounds. Economist

Microsoft's AI demand under scrutiny as investors seek payday: Reuters reports the software giant is widely seen as the front-runner in the race to capitalize on generative AI, in part thanks to its investment in ChatGPT-owner OpenAI. But recent reports point to slow adoption for its key products including the $30-per-month Copilot assistant for enterprises.

Google’s search engine has been given an AI overhaul. The web giant has activated a new feature Australia-wide that will deliver answers from its generative chatbot Gemini that will sit above the usual list of web results.

Toyota and NTT to team on AI self-driving to prevent crashes: Nikkei reports Japanese groups to invest $3bn in R&D, aim for practical use by 2028.

This AI version of a hit Christmas song marks a new era for music: Universal Music Group and SoundLabs used AI to create an authorized version of ‘Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree’ in Spanish. It’s likely the first of many such songs. FC

Meet the ‘super users’ who tap AI to get ahead at work: Workers say using AI tools like ChatGPT every day supercharges their efforts and saves them time on the job. WP

Staying authentic on LinkedIn in the age of AI: Everyone’s vying for visibility and influence, but it’s important to remember that authenticity still holds significant value, and AI cannot capture what you have to bring to the table. FC

ChatGPT dominates web traffic among GenAI tools: The 15 most popular generative AI tools according to web traffic in March 2024. VisualCapitalist

Evan Spiegel battles to revive Snap’s fortunes: Snapchat creator’s ambitions in augmented reality and online advertising hit by growing strength of arch-rival Meta. FT

*** Culture ***

Hidden library in UP woods reveals innermost thoughts of visitors: For decades, cabins in the Porcupine Mountains have offered campers a notebook in which to express themselves. Thousands of them have taken up the offer and created a remarkable collection of books. John Carlisle

What the happy warrior in your office knows about getting ahead: Your perpetually upbeat co-worker stands out because so many others are grumpy or slacking off. WSJ

Timothée Chalamet showed up at his own look-alike contest: No, he didn’t enter. But he still caused a stir in Washington Square Park, where four people were arrested. NYT

*** Sport ***

‘Best day of my life': Dodger fan describes moment he caught Freddie Freeman's grand slam ball: NBC LA reports before going to Dodger Stadium for the game, the kid was told that he was going to the dentist.

The World Series that turned America’s pastime into a national obsession halfway around the world: The presence of Japanese superstar Shohei Ohtani has turned this Fall Classic into a cultural moment in his homeland. ‘Think of Princess Di’s coronation—multiplied by a million.’ WSJ

+ Viewers for Game 2 of the World Series in...

USA: 13.8 million

Japan: 15.9 million

WP: Dwyane Wade’s statue was unveiled. The internet says it’s an airball.

LAT: Playoffs ‘a bit strange’ for Olivier Giroud, but he still wants MLS Cup title

Rodri wins Ballon d’Or as Real Madrid and Vinícius snub ceremony: Manchester City midfielder receives award on crutches after La Liga club pulled delegation of 50 players and employees from Paris event because of tip-off that Vinícius Júnior had not won. The Times

The inside story of Erik ten Hag’s Manchester United exit: Dutchman’s tenure at Old Trafford began well but — as players soon lost faith, results dipped and Ineos owners became unhappy — Man United ran out of patience. The Times


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal