Caracal Daily | October 24
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Thursday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
Terrorist attack hits major defense facility in Turkey: WSJ reports several people were killed in a suspected terrorist attack at the Turkish Aerospace Industries’ headquarters near the country’s capital, according to Turkish authorities.
Turkey says ‘terrorist attack’ on aerospace company leaves at least 5 dead, 22 injured: WP reports no group immediately claimed responsibility. Turkey’s interior minister said it was “most likely carried out” by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK.
Turkish Aerospace Industries HQ struck by explosion: Le Monde reports Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya described the blast at the top defense company as a 'terrorist attack' that has left at least five people dead and 22 injured, and said it was 'linked to the PKK,' a banned Kurdish group.
US says North Korean troops are in Russia and might be used in Ukraine war: WSJ reports US officials are still weighing a response as Moscow becomes more reliant on foreign assistance.
North Korean troops are in Russia, but their purpose is unclear, US says: WP reports Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the United States has evidence North Korea has sent military forces, affirming accusations by Ukraine and South Korea.
US confirms North Korean troops have been deployed to Russia: The Times reports Washington warns of serious consequences for Europe and Asia if Kim Jong-un’s forces join the war in Ukraine.
‘Thousands’ of North Korean troops to fight in Russia: FT reports Washington says deployment of soldiers is ‘a very, very serious issue.’
US defense secretary cites evidence that North Korea sent troops to Russia: Le Monde reports Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's remarks are the first official US statement on North Korean troops being sent to Russia, which South Korean intelligence has alleged is in support of Russia's war in Ukraine.
China may chafe as North Korea sends soldiers to fight Ukraine: NYT reports North Korea’s decision to dispatch troops to help Russia subdue Ukraine may put another Kremlin ally, China, in a tough spot diplomatically.
Ambiguity or madness? Where Harris and Trump stand on China: The vice-president makes no promise to defend Taiwan; her rival boasts of being crazy. Economist
China's love affair with high-speed rail: Since 2008, the Communist Party has been frantically building stations for a high-speed train, or 'gaotie,' to connect remote areas, develop the economy and consolidate its power. Yet with slowing growth, concerns about the advisability of the gigantic and expensive projects have arisen. Le Monde
Xi Jinping’s meeting with Narendra Modi signals China-India thaw: FT reports formal encounter at BRICS summit is leaders’ first in five years and follows deal on patrols along disputed border.
Reuters: Brazil's Lula urges BRICS to create alternative payment methods
Reuters: Russia says 'unprecedented' cyber attack hits foreign ministry amid BRICS summit
UN chief Guterres arrives at BRICS summit for talks with Putin: The Times reports the UN secretary-general has been criticized for his trip to Kazan — especially given the ICC’s arrest warrant for the Russian president over war crimes.
Russian arms firm warns it may halt exports as Ukraine war demands surge: FT reports Rostec chief Sergei Chemezov, an ally of Vladimir Putin, also blames high interest rates for making overseas sales difficult.
How Ukraine is waging information warfare to outwit Russians: A volunteer group is using open-source intelligence to disrupt Kremlin military operations and expose war crimes. The Times
Washington and Berlin are slow-walking Ukraine’s bid for a NATO invitation: Politico reports Ukraine’s Zelenskyy wants an immediate invitation to join the alliance, but key capitals are balking.
G7 finalizes $50 billion Ukraine loan backed by Russian assets: NYT reports the economic lifeline is expected to be disbursed by the end of the year.
The UK + Germany signed a new defense pact, which Defence Secretary John Healey hailed as a ‘major strengthening of Europe’s security.’
+ German warplanes will operate from Scotland and hunt Russian submarines as part of a new defense pact between Britain and Germany.
Germany’s populist superstar demands peace with Russia: In an interview Sahra Wagenknecht trashes the consensus on Ukraine—and much more. Economist
Labour paid for top Starmer aide to attend Democratic National Convention: FT reports details of Morgan McSweeney’s trip follow Donald Trump’s accusation of interference by UK party.
PM’s chief of staff is drawn into Trump election interference row: The Times reports the former president has filed a formal complaint, claiming that British activists and staff’s support for Kamala Harris is illegal foreign assistance.
+ Labour confirmed that Morgan McSweeney, Sir Keir Starmer’s chief of staff, attended the Democratic National Convention but denied he advised Kamala Harris’s campaign.
Angela Rayner dismissed allegations that the Labour party is interfering in the US election, after the Trump campaign filed a complaint about Labour activists being sent to campaign for Kamala Harris.
Why Labour’s involvement in US election is so damaging: Donald Trump has filed a formal complaint to the Federal Election Committee after Labour activists volunteered to campaign for Kamala Harris. The Times
The British are coming! Labour’s comedy of errors in the US election Freddy Gray
Keir Starmer’s Trump problem is getting worse Katy Balls
King’s Cross, a miracle in London: If Britain has a future, it’s there. Economist
CNN team detained for 48 hours while reporting in Darfur: WP reports chief international correspondent Clarissa Ward recounted her team’s experience in a first-person account published Wednesday.
NASA is in talks with Chinese officials to let American scientists analyze rocks retrieved by the Chinese from the far side of the moon.
Reuters: Chinese influence operation targets US down-ballot races, Microsoft says
American creating deep fakes targeting Harris works with Russian intel, documents show: Russian documents reviewed by The Post expose the workings of a Moscow network that has become a potent source of fake news targeting American voters. WP
The US spies who sound the alarm about election interference: A group of intelligence officials confers about when to alert the public to foreign meddling. TNY
+ “It’s never been worse.” -- Journalist Bill Adair explains how disinformation is escalating in the run up to the US Presidential election to the New York Times.
*** US Politics + Elections ***
POTUS-Poll: A new Monmouth poll finds 48% of registered voters will “definitely” or “probably” vote for Kamala Harris compared to 45% who will “definitely” or “probably” vote for Donald Trump.
POTUS-Poll: A new Economist/YouGov poll finds Harris leading nationally, 49% to 46%.
Here’s what my gut says about the election. But don’t trust anyone’s gut, even mine. Nate Silver
The tragedy of a 50-50 America: The era of Western stability relied on dominant parties, and the US has none. Janan Ganesh
The secretive billionaire network funding ‘stop the steal’ 2.0: GOP donors have given more than $140 million to nearly 50 groups working on election integrity; ‘another crusade of ours.’ WSJ
Trump’s allies revive debunked voting machine theories: NYT reports that former President Trump and his closest allies are returning to false claims about hacked machines as they prepare to contest the vote next month.
Trump: ‘I need the kind of generals that Hitler had’: The Republican nominee’s preoccupation with dictators, and his disdain for the American military, is deepening. The Atlantic
Harris calls Trump’s reported remarks on Hitler and Nazis ‘deeply troubling’: NYT reports the vice president seized on reports in which John Kelly, a former chief of staff to Donald J. Trump, recounted explosive comments by Trump and said he met the definition of a “fascist.”
Harris uses ex-Trump chief of staff’s remarks to paint him as unfit for office: WSJ reports the Republican nominee’s former aide likened his old boss to a dictator.
Harris seizes on former Trump aide’s warning that he fits ‘fascist’ label: WP reports in an interview, John Kelly said that his former boss would govern like a dictator if elected again.
+ The White House said that President Biden believes his predecessor, Donald Trump, is a fascist, CNN reports.
Is calling Trump fascist an insult to Trump voters? We mustn’t hurt their feelings! Jonathan Chait
CNN: Obama says white nationalists rally around Trump
Harris to deliver closing argument speech Tuesday on the National Mall: WP reports the vice president is slated to present her final case to the American people in D.C. exactly one week before Election Day.
This Bush and Romney campaign vet is extremely bullish on Kamala Harris’ chances: VF reports Stuart Stevens, a former GOP campaign strategist, talks Trump in the polls, Chris LaCivita’s modern swift boating, and how he thinks Harris will win.
+ “I think the Harris campaign is running what we’re probably going to look back at as the best presidential campaign ever run.” -- Stuart Stevens, quoted by Vanity Fair.
The Independent: Trump admits he’ll vote early in Florida, despite spreading baseless claims about practice for years
Her billionaire marriage broke up. Her VP campaign fizzled. Now she’s a Trump-world star. With a massive divorce settlement from Google’s Sergey Brin, Nicole Shanahan is remaking herself as a wellness guru. WP
What happens if the NYT’s tech staff strikes on election night?: WP reports a message from Times journalists to executives asks: “Can you imagine if our election needle didn’t work?”
How the media can escape its doom loop of distrust: Former New York Times executive editor Bill Keller argues that news needs more transparency and accountability to regain public trust. Greater media literacy is also essential. Bill Keller
Tech is urging Congress to formalize the AI Safety Institute: A group of tech giants, industry groups and think tanks are pushing Congress to make a key Commerce Department AI initiative permanent before the end of the year. Amazon, Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, IBM and other tech companies implored congressional leaders to formalize the AI Safety Institute in a letter obtained exclusively by Punchbowl News.
+ Signers of the letter include the Consumer Technology Association, BSA, the Federation of American Scientists, and the Center for AI Policy.
Nuclear power could rise again: Building out nuclear power will be critical for the project of combating climate change. WP - Editorial
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
Can AI be blamed for a teen’s suicide? The mother of a 14-year-old Florida boy says he became obsessed with a chatbot on Character dot AI before his death. NYT
Meet Hollywood’s AI doomsayer: Joseph Gordon-Levitt: Actor says AI companies use movies and TV to make money without fairly compensating actors; industry should ‘get ahead of that flood.’ WSJ
AI-powered workers are coming and work may never be the same again: The future of business could be populated by ‘autonomous agents,’ that, once instructed, can carry out tasks by themselves. Katie Prescott
Former OpenAI researcher says the company broke copyright law: Suchir Balaji helped gather and organize the enormous amounts of internet data used to train the startup’s ChatGPT chatbot. NYT
Bloomberg: OpenAI hires former Uber executive as chief compliance officer
+ Scott Schools previously worked in the US Justice Department
+ AI startup faces evolving global regulatory landscape
Perplexity CEO proposes revenue deals for publishers after lawsuit: WSJ reports that Journal parent Dow Jones sued the AI startup this week, alleging copyright infringement.
Claude AI tool can now carry out jobs such as filling forms and booking trips, says creator: Guardian reports Anthropic says model is able to carry out computer tasks – as fears mount such technology will replace workers.
Meta AI tackles maths problems that stumped humans for over a century: NS reports a type of mathematical problem that was previously impossible to solve can now be successfully analysed with artificial intelligence.
Andreessen Horowitz backs Infinitus to bring AI to medical calls: Bloomberg reports the startup, valued at over $600 million, is seeking to automate healthcare communication.
Bloomberg: ServiceNow reports strong sales growth, new AI agent strategy
CNBC: BlackRock unveils active fund that aims to track changing AI trade over time
Arm cancels Qualcomm’s chip design licence amid legal dispute: FT reports SoftBank-backed company is battling the US semiconductor maker over royalty payments.
Reuters: Stellantis to launch fleet of EVs fitted with Factorial solid-state batteries
‘Back to Starbucks’ could have a retro feel—and valuation: WSJ reports new boss Brian Niccol got some bad news out of the way early, but bringing back the Starbucks of old will come with a lower price tag.
Kering warns on profit as Gucci sales plunge: FT reports French luxury group grapples with a difficult turnaround at its biggest brand as demand dips in Asia.
*** Culture ***
The Whitney Museum will be free for all visitors 25 years old and younger: WSJ reports artist Julie Mehretu donated over $2 million so the museum could waive the entrance fee for anyone 25 and younger for the next three years.
New National Geographic museum is set to open in 2026: WP reports the revamp represents a massive overhaul of the organization’s DC headquarters and exhibition spaces.
*** Sport ***
Boise State and Ashton Jeanty: The Cinderella in a steel-toe boot TA
Knicks fans are starting to believe again in a team built by ‘smart dorks’ TA
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Daily | October 23
Caracal Daily | October 23
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Tuesday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
Not picking sides is paying off for these countries: More than 100 nations are embracing a new kind of geopolitical neutrality. For many, it’s working. Bloomberg
Israel’s once-fringe movement to reoccupy Gaza gains momentum: WSJ reports populating the strip with Jewish settlers and soldiers would boost security, supporters say, but it still faces opposition from most Israelis.
Blinken presses Netanyahu on dire conditions in northern Gaza: WP reports the secretary of state questioned the Israeli leader about a plan backed by some officials to gain control of the north by starving out or killing Palestinians currently there.
US Secretary of State urges Netanyahu to reach Gaza truce: Le Monde reports Secretary of State Antony Blinken, while in Israel on his 11th trip to the region since the October 7 attack. According to a UN report, it could take 350 years for Gaza to rebuild if it remains under a blockade.
FBI confirms probe into leak of top-secret documents about Israeli strike plans: WSJ reports the reports began circulating online last week, raising concerns the leaker came from within the US government.
Bloomberg: Kim Jong Un visits ICBM base weeks ahead of US election
+ Kim says US nuclear assets pose ever-increasing threat
+ Pyongyang’s last ICBM test was conducted in December 2023
North Korean troops train in Russia as Moscow deepens war coalition: WSJ reports South Korea’s intelligence agency said that Pyongyang had sent around 1,500 troops to train in eastern Russia.
North Korea is sending thousands of soldiers to help Vladimir Putin: It shows how far Russia has fallen as a strategic power. Economist
Zelensky sees NATO momentum on Ukraine joining, but not yet from US: WP reports Ukraine sees joining NATO as a vital security guarantee to protect it from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plans to take over the country.
US officials say Russia smeared Tim Walz and might stoke post-vote violence: WP reports faked content posted on social media drew millions of views, falsely tarring the Minnesota governor ahead of Nov. 5.
German spy aircraft to fly from the UK in new defense deal: The Times reports the German navy will use RAF Lossiemouth to hunt for Russian submarines while the countries work together on a long-range weapon that can target Moscow.
Britain and Germany agree on new defense pact as Russia threat rises: NYT reports the two governments said they will coordinate more on defense, with British and German troops conducting joint military exercises on NATO’s eastern border.
UK and Germany to sign a defense pact to counter Russia's threat: Le Monde reports defense ministers from Britain and Germany will sign the agreement in London on Wednesday.
BRICS summit: Putin hosts Xi and Modi in power play with West: The Times reports leaders from ten countries gathered in Kazan as the Kremlin looks to strengthen its anti-western alliance.
China pushes for BRICS expansion to legitimize its vision of a new world order: Le Monde reports through the BRICS and other international organizations it dominates, China has been strengthening its ties with 'Global South' countries, and offering an alternative to the US-dominated world order.
Seeking to elude sanctions, Putin and Xi promise ‘a just world order’: NYT reports the Russian leader wants to cast himself as a global statesman, even as the US and its Western allies try to isolate him.
Bloomberg: Xi, Modi to hold first talks in two years after border deal
+ India’s foreign secretary confirms upcoming Wednesday meeting
+ Beijing and New Delhi reached deal on border patrols this week
What deal on China-India border dispute means for ties Bloomberg
Why Xi Jinping changed his mind on China’s fiscal stimulus: After resisting calls to intervene, Beijing has made a sudden U-turn. But will the package be enough to get the economy back on track? FT
Xi Jinping tightens stranglehold on China’s academia: Scholars fired or disappeared as Beijing clamps down on discussion of sensitive topics including economy. FT
Bloomberg: Apple’s Tim Cook visits China, talks data security with minister
+ Beijing urges Apple to add investments in the country
+ China has tightened control over flow of data in recent years
Kazakhstan's Caspian Sea is drying up, with disastrous consequences: The Caspian Sea's water levels have dropped over the past 20 years, especially in the north, shared by Russia and Kazakhstan. The decline threatens biodiversity, and severely impacts the Kazakh fishing, transport, tourism and even hydrocarbon sectors. Le Monde
Indonesia’s macho new leader is no “cuddly grandpa”: Prabowo Subianto has fought back from years of disgrace and exile. Economist
Giorgia Meloni would make Machiavelli proud: Italy’s prime minister is far more popular than Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz. Economist
An assisted-dying bill is again introduced to Westminster: Econmist reports this time there is a good chance it will pass.
The new era of hacktivism: This form of online activism, popularized by Anonymous, has been making a strong comeback in recent years. Its growth has notably been driven by governments, who see it as an ideal way of operating undercover. Le Monde
WP: Alejandro Toledo joins list of Peruvian presidents imprisoned for graft
In the Dominican Republic, mass migrant expulsions turn into a 'hunt for Haitians': Le Monde reports on October 2, the Dominican government announced a campaign to expel 10,000 immigrants a week. It's aimed primarily at the country's large Haitian community, but concerns are being raised over the growing number of arrests deemed arbitrary.
Blackouts in Cuba highlight the island’s extreme energy fragility: The failure of a decrepit, oil-burning power system has plunged Cubans into darkness and misery. Economist
The Conquista, a source of pride and shame: A dispute with Mexico, which demands an apology from the King of Spain, controversy over the meaning of the national holiday, and decolonization within national museums... Spain is entangled in the legacy of the conquest of the Americas. Le Monde
Despite global crises, gas prices slide as US election near: NYT reports fuel prices, which had soared after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have dropped to their lowest level since February.
Global fight against historic inflation surge is nearly over, says IMF: WP reports the fund also upgrades growth forecast for US economy, which remains the developed world’s best performer.
IMF warns of stock market sell-off risk as geopolitical tensions rise: The Times reports investors complacent about the threat to asset prices from conflicts.
The global economy has proved surprisingly resilient: But significant downside risks will continue to pose a challenge for policymakers. Martin Wolf
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Kamala Harris narrowly leads Donald Trump in Times poll: The Times reports YouGov survey two weeks before the 2024 US election reveals the Democrat is ahead nationally — but within the margin of error, and her Republican rival has the edge on several key issues.
Trump calls Harris 'lazy as hell,' VP says US is ready for its first woman president: Le Monde reports with 14 days before Election Day, VP Kamala Harris was spending Tuesday in meetings in Washington, DC, and was scheduled to record TV interviews. The former Republican president was campaigning in North Carolina.
Trump campaign accuses ‘far-left’ Labour of election interference: The Times reports the complaint was filed with the Federal Election Commission against British volunteers campaigning for Kamala Harris in battleground states.
Donald Trump accuses UK Labour party of interference in White House race: FT reports the Republican ex-president files legal complaint with US’s federal election authority.
Yelp disables comments for McDonald’s where Trump donned apron: NYT reports the consumer review site temporarily disabled comments on the franchise’s page after the former president’s appearance prompted a flurry of reviews.
As election nears, Kelly warns Trump would rule like a dictator: NYT reports John Kelly, the Trump White House’s longest-serving chief of staff, said that he believed that Donald Trump met the definition of a fascist.
Donald Trump's ex-chief of staff John Kelly says he is a fascist and would govern as a dictator: FT reports the four-star US General John Kelly's claims were reported in blockbuster comments to The New York Times.
Biden quickly backtracks after saying Trump should be locked up: NYT reports the president appeared to slip by suggesting he wanted his predecessor put behind bars, but revised his comment to say he meant locked up “politically.”
Reuters: JPMorgan chief Dimon would consider a role in Harris administration, NYT reports
WSJ: Bill Gates privately donates $50 million to Harris
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
More than 10,500 actors, musicians, and authors protest tech’s AI data grab: An open letter from Thom Yorke, Julianne Moore and otherscalls unlicensed data scraping a threat to their livelihood. WP
Björn Ulvaeus and Thom Yorke among 11,000 artists warning of AI threats: The letter says unlicensed use of creative works to train models poses a major threat to creators’ livelihoods. FT
Anthropic’s new AI tool analyzes your screen and acts on your behalf: Bloomberg reports the new capability can interpret what a user is seeing on their computer and complete tasks online for them.
Anthropic says latest AI model can control users’ computers: FT reports the start-up backed by Google and Amazon says tool can act like a ‘human collaborator.’
AI-powered productivity tools that can make life harder: Technology used to summarise notes or generate transcripts does not always work for deaf employees. FT
OpenAI hires former White House official as its chief economist: NYT reports Aaron Chatterji was chief economist at the Commerce Department under President Biden and served on President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers.
The AI power grab: Big tech companies say AI can help solve climate change, even as it’s driving up their emissions and raising doubts about their climate goals. NYT
Researchers say Arkansas may have 19M tons of lithium critical for battery power: The Hill reports researchers said in their article released last month in the journal Science Advances they had “calculated that there are 5.1 to 19 million tons of lithium in Smackover Formation brines in southern Arkansas,” making up “35 to 136% of the current US lithium resource estimate.”
Electric vehicles may be struggling. GM’s leader is still a believer. NYT reports Mary Barra, GM’s chief executive, said that the company had fixed battery-manufacturing problems and that its electric vehicles would soon be profitable.
Profits at General Motors rose by 15.5% year on year during the third quarter, exceeding analysts’ expectations. Sales of electric vehicles rose by 60%.
Senior VW executive deported from China: FT reports the expulsion of chief marketing officer is latest blow to German carmaker in world’s largest auto market.
L’Oréal sales disappoint due to weak Chinese demand: FT reports revenue at world’s biggest beauty company grew 3.4 percent in third quarter, when analysts expected 6 percent
WSJ: Frontier, Spirit Airlines revive merger talks
Bloomberg: NASA’s search for alien life turns to icy moon of Jupiter
+ Probe will investigate subsurface ocean on Jovian moon Europa
+ Agency’s $5.2 billion project is scheduled to arrive in 2030
*** Culture ***
The essential Italian returns to America: The designer Giorgio Armani made a splashy comeback to celebrate his new store and residences in Manhattan. NYT
At the Louis Vuitton Foundation, pop art or the art of a new realism: The retrospective devoted to Tom Wesselmann and his contemporaries at the Parisian institution revisits the history of a movement that never stopped inventing. Le Monde
*** Sport ***
WP: LeBron and Bronny James make NBA history as first father-and-son duo
Victor Wembanyama, the face of an ever more French NBA: Le Monde reports the North American league's 2024-2025 season kicks off on Tuesday. Along with the Spurs star, the French contingent now includes Zaccharie Risacher and Alexandre Sarr, number one and two picks in the latest draft.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal