Caracal Daily | October 28
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Monday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
Japan election: Ruling coalition loses majority for first time since 2009: The Times reprts the gamble by Shigeru Ishiba, the country’s new prime minister, to call an early vote backfired badly and he will now be forced to lead a minority government.
Japan’s PM vows to stay on after election debacle: FT reports Shigeru Ishiba has presided over a result that threatens to plunge country’s politics into paralysis.
Voters deliver a historic rebuke to Japan’s ruling coalition: Economist reports that the Liberal Democratic Party may still hang on to power.
A seismic election sends Asia’s most stable democracy into chaos: Deep-seated grievance among Japanese voters has put the Liberal Democrats, longstanding custodians of the status quo, on notice. NYT
Japan is remarkably open to AI, but slow to make use of it: The land of Doraemon embraces the new technology in theory but not in practice. Economist
Bloomberg: Apple blocked from selling iPhone 16 models in Indonesia
+ Indonesia says Apple hasn’t fulfilled investment pledges
+ Rivals Samsung, Xiaomi have set up local factories to comply
Chinese economic slowdown looks even worse across some provinces: Bloomberg reports Chinese provinces that account for about a third of the economy are enduring a worse year than the nation as a whole, succumbing to a slowdown that likely swayed the government in moving ahead with a range of stimulus measures last month.
As ties with the US worsen, China asks: Who’s the new Kissinger? Influential voices in China are openly discussing who could act as a trusted bridge between Beijing and Washington, regardless of who wins the presidency. WP
How a Trump victory would threaten Tesla’s success in China: Elon Musk’s embrace of the former president complicates things in a vital market for the US EV maker. WSJ
Australia, the land of iron ore exports, faces a green reckoning: As Chinese demand drops and the world cleans up its steel industry, Australia faces a race to switch from exporting ore to manufacturing green iron. WP
Australian businesses complain they are ‘public enemy number one’: Labor government adopts increasingly populist position ahead of general election due in May. FT
The truth behind Chinese whispers that painted Wallis Simpson as a harlot: High society rumors or an establishment plot? A book delves into scandalous claims that the woman who’d caught the future Edward VIII’s eye had embarked on a debauched year in China. The Times
Free electricity, anyone? Britain tries new tricks to green its grid. A utility sends phone alerts when wind power is cheap. A builder sells “zero bill” houses. They’re among several experiments to redefine how people value electricity. NYT
Newspapers must be paid if AI uses their archive, Keir Starmer says: The prime minister vows to defend the media but tech firms warn Britain will be left behind unless companies can use copyrighted work to train their models. The Times
Man who used AI to create child abuse images jailed for 18 years in UK: FT reports a judge rules in landmark case involving deepfake sexual abuse material.
NATO says North Korean troops in Russia threaten European security: FT reports Pyongyang’s involvement marks ‘dangerous expansion’ of Moscow’s war in Ukraine, says Mark Rutte.
Russia ‘withholding’ vital climate data in the Arctic, warns NATO: FT reports official says accurate modeling of global warming is being hit.
Ukraine resorts to shaking down nightlife spots for recruits as troop numbers fall: WSJ reports manpower is the decisive factor in a drawn-out war of attrition, with Russia’s population four times the size of Ukraine’s.
How Soviet farm planning gave Ukrainian troops vital battlefield real estate: WP reports on the Ukrainian steppe, where it is nearly impossible to hide from drone surveillance, windbreaks are fought over by Russian and Ukrainian troops.
Another domino falls to Vladimir Putin after Georgia’s tense election: The ruling party’s win is celebrated in Moscow, but unrest is possible. Economist
How a Mumbai drugmaker is helping Putin get Nvidia AI chips: Trade-tracking data show that the Indian firm is selling top-end Dell servers optimized for artificial intelligence to Russia. Bloomberg
Why the Bauhaus is again under siege from the German hard-right: The Times reports the attacks from the Alternative for Germany party mirror those from nearly a century ago when the Nazi party tried to dismantle the influential design school.
Meloni v. judges: In Italy, a fight over migration rekindles old hostilities: Conservatives have often accused the Italian courts of overreach. The prime minister’s plan to outsource asylum requests is now part of that longstanding battle. NYT
Israel’s limited missile strike on Iran may be the start of a wider assault: Whatever Iran’s response to the attack, it carries risks for the regime. Economist
Israeli strikes on Iran expose gap in prowess between two arch foes: WSJ reports recent conflict pits Iran and Israel in a direct, long-distance war—and Israel has the upper hand.
US and Israeli spy chiefs meet for Gaza cease-fire talks: NYT reports the director of the CIA was in Qatar for preliminary talks with Israeli officials aimed at reviving cease-fire negotiations with Hamas.
The Middle East drug fueling war, crime, and all-night parties: Captagon is bringing big profits to Syria’s Assad regime and Hezbollah—and it’s triggering a health crisis. WSJ
Another African war looms: An agreement two years ago halted a bloody conflict in Ethiopia but sowed the seeds of new ones. Economist
China’s $3.6bn megaport in Peru rings alarm bells in Washington: China also controls the companies that between them provide all the electricity to Lima, which is home to a third of the country’s population. The Times
Argentina ready to boost flights to Falklands, says foreign minister: Diana Mondino says airlines will have to decide ‘frequency’ in sign of warmer relations with the UK over the islands. FT
Why the BRICS de-dollarization dream remains a fantasy Bloomberg
Meg Whitman’s mission in Africa: American tech over Chinese: As ambassador to Kenya, the former eBay and HP CEO has made a priority of counterbalancing Chinese influence on the continent. Bloomberg
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Trump at the Garden: A closing carnival of grievances, misogyny, and racism: NYT reports the inflammatory rally was a capstone for an increasingly aggrieved campaign for Donald Trump, whose rhetoric has grown darker and more menacing.
Donald Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally overshadowed by racism accusations: FT reports Republican lays out dark closing argument in Democratic city where he made his fortune but was also convicted.
What election? Trump just wants to play Madison Square Garden: The Republican candidate was there to make his closing arguments to the American people — but first he wanted to talk about filling New York’s most famous arena. Will Pavia
+ Donald Trump told the rally that the United States had become “an occupied country” due to illegal immigration and that he would fix it with “the largest deportation program in American history”
+ One speaker called Puerto Rico an “island of garbage,” another labeled Kamala Harris “the Antichrist”
+ Trump promised the “largest deportation program in American history”
Economist: Donald Trump returns to New York for a bombastic closing pitch
Crazy is beginning to sound like an understatement Gail Collins + Bret Stephens
Some billionaires, CEOs hedge bets as Trump vows retribution: WP reports with the race tight, some business elites are toning down past criticism of the former president.
Washington Post in turmoil after opting against 2024 presidential endorsement: WP reports the Bezos-owned newspaper is facing criticism that the move was motivated by concern of retribution from Trump.
America’s glorious economy should help Kamala Harris: Voters are starting to notice the good news just in time for the election. Economist
Women will decide America’s future: Where female voters go, the result of the US presidential election follows. Rana Foroohar
America is having a panic attack over the election: Voters see permanent damage to the country if their candidate loses; ‘There are not enough gummies I can take to soothe the angst!’ Molly Ball
How would Trump and Harris supporters handle defeat? Here’s what they say. Supporters of Trump and Harris weigh in on how they would handle an election loss, with some expressing fears over the country’s direction. WP
Could the Trump-Musk bromance force a NASA pivot to Mars? WP reports the tightening relationship between Donald Trump and Space X CEO Elon Musk has caught the attention of space policy analysts wondering about US aspirations to get to Mars.
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
The print magazine revival of 2024: More publishers are discovering that magazines are now a luxury good. Bloomberg
Every company needs to put on a show like Apple: Steve Jobs’s annual product launches can be a surprisingly effective management tool—whether you’re in the business of tech or tacos. Ben Cohen
Talk of a 7-Eleven takeover has Japan worried about the rice balls: A Canadian company is offering $47 billion, but some fans of the Japanese-owned convenience chain question whether the bidder understands local tastes. WSJ
A new space hub thrives in Southern California Bloomberg
Boeing will reportedly launch a plan to raise more than $15bn as soon as Monday.
Bloomberg: Boeing launches $19 billion share sale to thwart downgrade
+ Company sells 90 million common, $5 billion depositary shares
+ Fundraiasing could approach $22 billion with overallotments
New wearable devices target the brain to bring better sleep: They promise to speed up the onset of slumber, improve its quality and even transition travelers to a different time zone before they land at their destination. WSJ
FT: Volkswagen plans to close at least 3 German plants and cut thousands of jobs
Bloomberg: VW eyes closing three German factories in cost-cutting push
+ Automaker also plans pay cuts at VW brand, labor leader says
+ Move shows extent of crisis at Europe’s biggest carmaker
Mercedes and Porsche’s fight with China is coming close to home: After making waves with cheap EVs, Chinese carmakers are targeting the luxury segment in Europe. Bloomberg
Elon Musk’s dream of a drive-in movie diner with EV charging is taking shape: The automaker is tapping into car culture nostalgia for a new type of EV charging station. Bloomberg
Shares at Philips fell by more than 15% after the Dutch technology firm reduced its sales forecast for 2024. It said that “a significant deterioration” in demand from China was dampening sales.
Our robot stories haven’t prepared us for AI Ross Douthat
BI: James Cameron says the reality of artificial general intelligence is 'scarier' than the fiction of it
AP: Researchers say an AI-powered transcription tool used in hospitals invents things no one ever said
Many older Americans don’t trust AI-generated health information: The report’s authors wrote that health literacy is important to help adults make decisions about their health. WP
Reuters: Google to develop AI that takes over computers, The Information reports
Meet Joelle Pineau: Shaping AI as the world grapples with its potential: Meta’s head of research into the technology explains the career path that led to weighing questions on society’s future. FT
Why Apple’s AI success hinges on the iPhone: Big tech rivals can distribute AI widely through their services, while Apple’s hardware-centric business needs its devices as the touchpoint. WSJ
How Intel got left behind in the AI chip boom: Intel was for decades Silicon Valley’s dominant chip company. But missed opportunities and poor execution left it on the sidelines in tech’s latest gold rush. NYT
*** Culture ***
Is saké the new Prosecco? From cocktails to dinner parties, the Japanese drink is becoming increasingly popular. The Times
The world’s best bar is hidden behind an unmarked door in Mexico City: The insider favorite Handshake Speakeasy was named No. 1 by the World’s 50 Best Bars. Bloomberg
*** Sport ***
The Times: Erik ten Hag sacked as Manchester United manager
College Football needs to learn a lesson from MLB: Collective bargaining could fix the sport’s problems. Bloomberg
The Tom Brady broadcasting experience feels kind of pointless: Brady has shown promise as a color commentator, but the restrictions that come with his ownership stake in the Las Vegas Raiders will keep him from being great in the booth. And what’s Brady worth without greatness? Ringer
Hello ‘darkness’: A brutal season for Aaron Rodgers and the Jets keeps getting worse Jason Gay
On a hurricane-ravaged Appalachian Trail, vast damage and uncertainty: Repairs to the worst-hit sections of the famed trail are expected to be extraordinarily expensive and require substantial expertise. Months of work lie ahead. WP
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Daily | October 25
Caracal Daily | October 25
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. Caracal is here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Friday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
Japan’s China paradox has lessons for Australia: Japan’s new prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, wants a more equal relationship with the US. That could spell trouble as Tokyo confronts the “deep threat” from China. AFR
Sinologist Li Cheng: ‘America is not in the mood to study China’: The political expert on the breakdown of US-Sino relations, what Xi Jinping’s fourth term might hold — and why neither Harris nor Trump makes him hopeful of change. FT
China and Iran champion close ties, but Beijing’s influence is limited: WP reports an Israeli strike on Iran could upset China’s oil supplies, but Beijing is more interested in looking like a peacemaker than actually making peace, analysts say.
Americans who want to do business in China need to meet this man: He Lifeng has a direct line to President Xi Jinping and is a gatekeeper to the world’s second-largest economy. WSJ
Bloomberg: China lawmakers to meet during US election amid stimulus hopes
+ Top legislative body to review report on financial work
+ Published agenda doesn’t specifically mention fiscal policies
‘China will not like it one bit’: Beijing uneasy with North Korean troops in Russia: FT reports the deepening Moscow-Pyongyang ties could destabilise Korean peninsula and embolden US-led alliances in region.
Bloomberg: North Korea to send more troops to Russia, South Korea spies say
+ First group of soldiers already undergoing training in Russia
+ South Korea also reports on arms sent to Russia by Pyongyang
Putin abandons caution on North Korea in pursuit of victory in Ukraine: NYT reports the invasion of Ukraine has led the Russian leader to jettison cooperation with the West over North Korea’s nuclear arsenal in favor of an ever-deepening military alliance with Pyongyang.
Bloomberg: Putin says Russia won’t make concessions to end war on Ukraine
Putin welcomes Trump’s ‘sincere’ pledge to end war in Ukraine: The Times reports Russian president praised the Republican’s claim he would ‘work out something’ to stop the conflict if he returned to the White House.
Elon Musk’s secret conversations With Putin: Regular contacts between world’s richest man and America’s chief antagonist raise security concerns. Topics include geopolitics, business and personal matters. WSJ
Vladimir Putin’s battle to keep Georgia in Russia’s orbit: The country is holding elections that could decide whether it tilts towards Moscow or Brussels. Observers fear that violence may follow. FT
Pro-Russia parties gain ground in Bulgaria ahead of elections: FT reports political fragmentation in EU and NATO member plays to Moscow’s advantage.
Why Moldova wants to move away from Russia and join EU instead Bloomberg
EU has to stop ‘lecturing’ developing world, says top official: FT reports Charles Michel says partner countries taking part in Putin’s BRICS summit ‘want to send a message.’
Chinese imports damage ‘dignity’ of Italian tomato, says Mutti chief: FT reports the boss of tomato sauce group urges Brussels to protect farmers hit by ‘unfair’ competition from China’s Xinjiang region.
A history of Opus Dei — and the conspiracy theories around it: In “Opus,” Gareth Gore tells the story of a Catholic organization tangled up in right-wing politics and accusations of human trafficking. WP
Violence and threats: How a campaign of fear has shaken Canada’s Sikhs: NYT reports the tightly knit communities in Ontario and British Columbia have been rocked by violent events in the past 18 months. Now the authorities say the Indian government was behind them.
Why Canada is scaling back its immigration ambitions Bloomberg
For Mexico’s Sheinbaum, the race is on to harness nearshoring: Judicial reforms and the US election are roiling expectations of foreign investment-fueled growth. Bloomberg
White House orders Pentagon and intel agencies to increase use of AI: The Biden administration is under pressure to speed up AI development while also safeguarding against potential risks associated with the technology. WP
White House pushes agencies to adopt AI for military, spy uses: BGov reports the Biden administration plans to accelerate the adoption of artificial intelligence for military and intelligence uses, directing agencies to obtain the most powerful systems in a safe and secure manner, according to plans outlined in a new national security memorandum. The ambition to deploy AI in ways that would include lethal force is driven by fears that the US could fall behind China’s efforts to rapidly advance its own cutting-edge efforts, according to a senior administration official who briefed reporters on the memo before its release on Thursday and requested anonymity to discuss it.
+ “Our competitors want to upend US AI leadership and have employed economic and technological espionage in efforts to steal US technology,” according a White House fact sheet.
+ United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres is leading the call for nations to sign a ban on lethal autonomous weapons by 2026, something that the US is not expected to join.
Biden to release AI national security memo: The memo will serve “as a formal charter for the AI Safety Institute” and a framework will provide agencies with new guidance, senior officials said. FedScoop
+ Under the memo, agencies will be directed to access “the most powerful AI systems and put them to use,” senior administration officials who briefed reporters on the memo ahead of its release said. The memo will also bolster the role of the AI Safety Institute and provide direction to agencies for AI use for national security.
WH Memo: Biden-Harris administration outlines coordinated approach to harness power of AI for US national security - Read the memo here.
Bloomberg: Trump 2.0 haunts world economy chiefs gathering in Washington before vote
+ Finance, central bank leaders gather for IMF annual meetings
+ US election seen as global risk alongside wars and inflation
A US farming giant gets a message 11 stories tall: Using natural materials from environmental disasters around the country, a Brazilian activist sends a message to a US farming giant. NYT
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Trump takes narrow lead over Harris in closing weeks of race: WSJ reports voters remember Trump’s presidency more fondly as negative views of Harris grow.
+ The national survey finds that Trump is leading Harris by 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%, compared with a Harris lead of 2 points in the Journal’s August survey on a ballot that includes third-party and independent candidates.
Harris and Trump deadlocked to the end, final Times/Siena national poll finds: The electorate has rarely seemed so evenly divided. A New York Times/Siena College poll found Kamala Harris and Donald Trump tied, 48 percent to 48 percent.
Donald Trump takes lead over Kamala Harris on US economy in final FT poll: FT-Michigan Ross survey shows most Americans think they will be better off if Republican wins.
In Wisconsin county, undecided voters reflect unease with Trump, Harris: WP reports Door County has sided with the winner in the past seven presidential races. Voters are anxious, fearful — and some are still undecided.
Harris struggles to distinguish candidacy from Biden: WSJ reports a majority of voters say the Democratic presidential candidate would largely continue the unpopular incumbent’s approach and policies.
+ @KellyO: NBC News confirms that Beyonce will appear with @KamalaHarris in Houston, Texas... That's both Beyonce hometown and where Harris is expected to highlight Texas abortion restrictions.
How Trump talks: Abrupt shifts, profane insults, confusing sentences: WP reports the Republican presidential nominee calls it “the weave” and a sign of a brilliant mind, but his remarks at recent public appearances have been strikingly erratic and coarse.
Believe him. What Donald Trump would do, in his own words NYT - Editorial
Trump’s newfound wealth hinges on winning election: WSJ reports his Truth Social social-media platform could tumble, but less debt and more cash have added stability to the former president’s finances.
The crypto website where the election odds swing in Trump’s favor: NYT reports Donald Trump, Elon Musk and CNN have cited election predictions from Polymarket, a betting site where crypto enthusiasts have wagered more than $100 million on who will win the presidency.
How 1% of Polymarket bettors are boosting Trump’s odds: An analysis of millions of transactions shows a handful of accounts with outsize impact. Bloomberg
Prediction markets reflect that the clock favors Trump: Plus, the Polymarket whale is French, 62% probability isn’t a certainty, and October has failed to surprise. John Authers
Joe Rogan takes center stage in an election season dominated by podcasts: The nation’s No. 1 podcaster is set to host Donald Trump for a taped appearance that could air as soon as Saturday. WSJ
Here are 5 industries with the most at stake in presidential election Bloomberg
Alsobrooks has clear lead in Maryland Senate race, Post-UMD poll finds: WP reports Larry Hogan’s popularity as governor runs up against voters’ strong preference for Democrats to control the Senate.
Biden to apologize for Indian boarding schools where hundreds of children died: NYT reports President Biden’s trip to the battleground state of Arizona will be the first time an American president has apologized for the abuses that happened at the schools over a period of 150 years.
A new influence industry is making millions from US sanctions: Prominent former US officials are signing on to represent oligarchs, authoritarians, and corporate interests eager to shape America’s sprawling system of economic warfare. WP
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
Behind the magic of ‘Saturday Night Live’s’ comedy empire: Five decades ago, television had never seen anything like ‘SNL.’ Now it’s the bar for modern comedy—and the kind of rare institution that gets to reinvent itself every year. WSJ
Why the young are fleeing to Portugal Rory Sutherland
Ship-free Saturdays? Juneau votes against limiting large cruise ships. NYT reports some residents in the Alaskan capital, frustrated with cruise crowds, sought to limit ship traffic on Saturdays, despite the likely negative impact on local businesses.
The influencer bros selling more baseball bats than the pros: Their YouTube reviews of Bonesabers, Tanks, and Meta Powers are shaping a billion-dollar market. Bloomberg
Dom Pérignon perfectly demonstrates the appeal of scarcity: What better expression of a luxury brand than refusing to sell your product this year, because it would be impossible to meet your impeccable standards? Mark Ritson
Moncler holds star-studded Genius event in Shanghai: Reuters reports mre than 8,000 guests were on hand for "The City of Genius" event, which featured separate pavilions for each of this year's Moncler Genius collection collaborators - a list that includes high profile names such as A$AP Rocky, Edward Enninful, Willow Smith and Rick.
Michael Kors and Kate Spade owners’ $8.5bn merger blocked by US judge: FT reports the decision is a win for antitrust regulators who had argued a deal would strangle competition in ‘accessible luxury’ market.
Cooling EV and China sales halve profits at Mercedes-Benz: FT reports the German carmaker has already lowered its annual profit margin guidance twice in the past three months.
Human scientists are still better than AI ones – for now: A simulator for the process of scientific discovery shows that AI models still fall short of human scientists and engineers in coming up with hypotheses and carrying out experiments on their own. NS
Big Tech has given itself an AI deadline: Why are AI execs suddenly saying that superintelligence is just around the corner? The Atlantic
The next wave of AI won’t be driven by LLMs - Here’s what investors should focus on instead Vivek Wadhwa
Masayoshi Son inflates the AI bubble even more Parmy Olson
Arm CEO sees AI transforming the world much faster than the internet: Rene Haas, the chief executive officer of Arm Holdings, says AI’s impact will be ‘quite, quite dramatic’ and there’s no holding back smart cars. Bloomberg
US approves massive lithium mine in Nevada, overriding protests: WP reports some environmentalists worry the Rhyolite Ridge Lithium-Boron Project could drive a rare wildflower to extinction, highlighting the trade-offs of the energy transition.
Microsoft bets on latest ‘Call of Duty’ to power up video games strategy: FT reports the tech giant hopes ‘Black Ops 6’ will boost Game Pass subscription service as Xbox sales decline.
*** Culture ***
Party barns are the hottest amenity for UK’s countryside rich: Agents say they’re becoming a must-have in property searches, as homeowners transform former agricultural spaces into entertainment hot spots. Bloomberg
Who gets the TikTok in the divorce? The messy fight over valuable social media accounts: When couples who make their living online split up, assessing the accounts’ future value and divvying them up fairly is a drag. WSJ
‘Conclave’: A fly on the wall inside the secret process to elect a Pope: A new drama by Edward Berger draws the audience inside this largely hidden tradition. How accurate is it? NYT
*** Sport ***
It’s Major League Baseball’s dream World Series—and it only cost $650 million: The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers are the most prestigious and popular franchises in the sport. They also hold an enormous financial advantage over their rivals. WSJ
Is this Yankees vs. Dodgers World Series baseball’s salvation—or its last stand? A shrinking pastime gets a noisy marquee matchup of superstars and love-to-hate coastal cities. Is it enough to get all of America talking baseball again? Jason Gay
Judge, Ohtani, and a dream World Series matchup: Could this be MLB’s Magic and Bird? TA
WTOP: DC mayor proposes $87.5M purchase of Capital One Arena. Teams will stay in DC until 2050
WUSA: DC Mayor Bowser, Ted Leonsis share plans to revitalize Capital One Arena
Don Garber: Global soccer would be in better shape with MLS structure SBJ
In sports, American socialism is beating European capitalism: The more egalitarian, redistributive club competitions that exist in the US are starting to be copied across the Atlantic. WSJ
The French engineer chasing Ferrari’s first championship since 2008: Frédéric Vasseur has led the F1 team’s resurgence, reinvigorating fans and sponsors. FT
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal